2007 Caulfield Cup Thread

[eastaugh36]

With everyone working out their early bets, doubles etc I thought it would be good to have one for the Caulfield as well.
I have spent some time working out my horses but there are some queries.

Tawqeet
Pompeii Ruler - is he cox plate or caulfield cup bound?
Empire's Choice

The 3 above are my shorter prices ones. I am tossing up on Blue Monday. From all reports he has been very impressive. Miss Finland too, but I doubt she would run in it a week before the cox plate.

Now as for a couple of roughies I like to select.
What are the thoughts on Douro Valley?

 

[go fullta]

i dont think douro valley has the class too win the caulfield cup!! keep your money in your pocket there...

im pretty sure he couldnt even win at Ararat earlier in the year!!

 

[plays tall 1]

Blue Monday ran great yesterday. Definitely one to watch.

 

[sethlad]

Half the battle is working out where these horses are headed.
Blue Monday went good but his best form appears around the 2000m.

Cant believe how good Maldidian went,hope youre already on Lockyer?
Really liked Mettre En Jeu's 1st up effort,raced a bit close fresh but travelled beautifully til it ran out of puff.

seth

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Blue Monday ran great yesterday. Definitely one to watch.

Agreed.
Continual references to Almaraad, when Hayes talks of this horse.
The guys on 927 have been taking this as a Cox Plate horse $21 in both markets on TAB sportsbet.

 

[Lockyer24]

Nah not really into backing anything this far out...and still need some convincing!
I'm starting to have premonitions of a frontrunning win like Elvis though.

The Metropolitan seems to be a good form guide for this race - will wait and see what he's up against.

 

[sethlad]

As much as $81(IAS) bet Blue Monday for the Cox Plate
Does look a decent year so will need to keep the improvement going.

seth

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

As much as $81(IAS) bet Blue Monday for the Cox Plate
Does look a decent year so will need to keep the improvement going.

Does certainly look like a decent year.
My theory on doubles is that I tend to take my early Cox Plate selection into numerous Caulfield & Melbourne Cups, along with the Derby.
Cox Plate is more predictable, in that you tend to know the make up of the field you just need a little luck.

FOO cost me thousands last year, my biggest double outlay was El Segundo (Cox Plate) into Efficient (Derby). Still yet to snag one!!

 

[Ricketts]

When are the weights out? Or are they?

 

[over the top]

what odds can you get for maldivian and dylan thomas? dylan thomas would streak it in if he ran.

 

[sethlad]

what odds can you get for maldivian and dylan thomas? dylan thomas would streak it in if he ran.

In which race,the Cox Plate?

seth

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Based on Maldivian's run on Saturday, if he runs a strong 2400 he wins, simple as that. Just an incredible performance after pulling his head off in quick sectionals and I really liked the way he toughed out the last 200 when he had every right to lay down.

Caulfield Cup has also been a very good race for on pace stayers as well (except when its wet)

You would imagine that Dylan Thomas would go to the Breeders Cup meeting so I wouldn't waste money backing it in anything down here.

 

[sethlad]

Based on Maldivian's run on Saturday, if he runs a strong 2400 he wins, simple as that.

Wow,he was impressive but thats a big,early call in August Tassie
Did he pull like that in his wins earlier in the year or was he just fresh?

I dont have a strong memory of the earlier wins except when he beat Illustration (who I rate) at MV.

seth

 

[angus6]

Great thread.

My early tip is for the caulfield cup is pompeii ruler. i am just not sure what he is set for though. By the way relaxed and run on on saturday it seems as if they might be getting him to relax for longer races like the caulfield cup. We have heard him being talked about running in the melbourne cup.

His a great horse who can sit up on the pace and i think he would be better suited to a caulfield cup and is in with a great chance.

Where is the cox plate thread?

Seeing that all 3 races will be talked about heaps leading up to them maybe the mod's can make them all a "sticky".

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Based on Maldivian's run on Saturday, if he runs a strong 2400 he wins, simple as that.

Wow,he was impressive but thats a big,early call in August Tassie
Did he pull like that in his wins earlier in the year or was he just fresh?

I dont have a strong memory of the earlier wins except when he beat Illustration (who I rate) at MV.

seth

Probably a bit over zealous in the comments with 2 months until the race . Things I really like about him though are that Kavanagh has said all along that the Caulfield Cup is his grand final whereas others have different long term goals on their agenda and I love his high cruising speed in races (ala Might And Power - just an example of racing style not ability) which allows him to control most races by crunching out consistent 200 metre sectionals without being attacked.

Has never really over-raced like that before so put it down to being first up and having to be dug up early and he has never had to go with a horse up front either. But simply put, if he can go with Live In Vain over 1400 up front, he will lead anything else on his ear at 1600m onwards if he wants so won't be dug up out of the gates again and has always settled when allowed to roll forward under his own steam.

Previous wins were all from the front or outside leader and he just dominated from the turn onwards. Pretty sure as well that by winning the Easter Cup over 2000m at Caulfield this year that he is already qualified.

Going to put my money where my mouth is as well

 

[eastaugh36]

Great thread.

My early tip is for the caulfield cup is pompeii ruler. i am just not sure what he is set for though. By the way relaxed and run on on saturday it seems as if they might be getting him to relax for longer races like the caulfield cup. We have heard him being talked about running in the melbourne cup.

His a great horse who can sit up on the pace and i think he would be better suited to a caulfield cup and is in with a great chance.

Where is the cox plate thread?

Seeing that all 3 races will be talked about heaps leading up to them maybe the mod's can make them all a "sticky".

I'm with you. Once I get some sort of confirmation that the Caulfield is more likely than the Cox, its off to the tab to load up.

 

[ECHUCABOY]

Some massive calls in this thread and in others, I know that is what bigfooty is all about but.......I think people get just a little bit too excited with one run and think yep that horse has run on well or Tony Brassell said that horse ran on well it will win.

I don't think you can tell if a horse is a serious threat until atleast 3rd up....especially when there are such small fields and below average horses. Thats just my opinion, what do others think? can you gauge how a horse will rate in the big races on its first and second up form??

 

[angus6]

I'm with you. Once I get some sort of confirmation that the Caulfield is more likely than the Cox, its off to the tab to load up.

Same thats all i need just a hint at the cc over the plate and i am there.
Will also load up on the double with miss finland in the plate.

 

[plays tall 1]

Can anyone shed any light on whether Pompeii Ruler's breeding (below) indicates he can be expected to get the trip for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups?

Genuine (Jpn) - West with Night (NZ) (Pompeii Court (USA))

I'm not familiar with any of the above.

 

[sethlad]

His dam is a full sister to Derobe who won an SAJC Oaks so he's got some staying blood.
My memories of Genuine is that he was a failure here & didnt last long,any of you pedigree buffs fill this in?

seth

 

[eastaugh36]

I keep getting Genuine and Generous mixed up! Apart from Pompeii Ruler I only know of one other by Genuine. Safari Sunbeam who was with Price from memory.

 

[go fullta]

yeh genuine is a son of sunday silence that was born in 1992. he did all of his racing in japan and tokyo. he won two group 1s 1600m and 2000m. he was also placed in group1 company over 12 furlong. he had 21 starts for 5 wins, 7 2nds and 1 3rd.

his dam croupier lady was handy on the track winning 13 races and $326,435 in prizemoney. she had 7 foals, 6 winners.

he stood at chatswood stud in 2003 for $8,800

his only stakes winning progeny is pompeii ruler!! yeah safari sunbeam go's alright. he also had a 1st starter win over 1400m called regal heir recently.

they all seem very dour,and thats probably why he wasnt successful, with many fast australian mares being sent to him.

 

[go fullta]

he was also exported back to japan on 22nd march 2005, never came back

 

[haywood jablome]

His dam is a full sister to Derobe who won an SAJC Oaks so he's got some staying blood.
My memories of Genuine is that he was a failure here & didnt last long,any of you pedigree buffs fill this in?

seth

I know he won a group 1 race in Japan.. His sire is Sunday Silence, he will have no troubles over the distance.
Here are Genuines stats
GENUINE (unknown; What Luck) JPY 554,430,000, Satsuki Sho (2000 Guineas)-G1, Mile Championship-G1, 2d Tokyo Yushun (Derby)-G1, Yasuda Kinen-G1.

 

[Aussie Assault]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/genuine

This site is the best I have found for breeding.