2007 Caulfield Cup Thread

[Lockyer24]

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 TAWQEET (USA) David Hayes D Dunn 57 (118)
2 BLUE MONDAY (GB) David Hayes N Rawiller 56 (113)
3 BLUTIGEROO Colin Little D Oliver 55.5 (113)
4 RAILINGS Roger James G Childs 55.5 (111)
5 MAYBE BETTER Brian Mayfield-Smith C Brown 54 (112)
6 BLACK TOM David Hayes P A Hall 53.5 (107)
7 PURPLE MOON (IRE) Luca Cumani K McEvoy 53.5 (108)
8 MALDIVIAN (NZ) Mark Kavanagh M Rodd 53 (113)
9 CINQUE CENTO Peter G Moody S Seamer 52.5 (112)
10 MANDELA (NZ) Richard Yuill D Nikolic 52.5 (106)
11 SCENIC SHOT Daniel Morton S Katsidis 52.5 (108)
12 ANNENKOV (IRE) Peter G Moody L Nolen 52 0.5 (105)
13 ANAMATO David Hayes R S Dye 51.5 (110)
14 DOURO VALLEY Danny O'Brien J M Winks 51.5 0.5 (106)
15 SIRMIONE Bart Cummings 51.5 (101)
16 ESKIMO QUEEN (NZ) Michael Moroney C Newitt 51 (106)
17 PRINCESS COUP Mark Walker G Boss 51 (110)
18 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien V Duric 50.5 (105)
19E SARRERA Michael Moroney 52 (105)
20E MOLOTOV David Hayes D Moor 51 (102)

 

[__Ron_]

Barrier draw out

Maldivian draws 1

the rubbish draw wide

main rivals all draw close to the rails except

Scenic Shot who draws 18

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

I must admit that I'm not prepared to write Anamato off now after the barrier draw. With most of the favourites liking to race handy and also drawing close to the fence I can see this being like a trotting race with the speed being clapped on at the 600 and only horses chasing the fence home will have a chance based on the sectionals.

Obviously rain and track bias could throw this out the window but if the track is racing true then I think you will have to take the short way home to be in the finish

 

[sethlad]

Not too fussed about barriers in a C Cup,the ones that need to go forward do & the rest seen to sort themselves out ok.
Looks like theres enough pace here,IMO if a backmarker draws wide,you just get a bigger price.

seth

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

I was just a tad concerned Seth that 4 of the favs will race in the first half dozen or so and as most of them have drawn well that they won't have to work to get there so should have plenty left when the sprint goes on.

As you said though, most big races result in jockeys getting going a bit earlier than normal. Who can forget the Japanese jockey declaring them on at the 1000 last year.

 

[Lockyer24]

The barrier draw was amazing I thought.

Blutigeroo (14)
Maybe Better (8)
Maldivian (1)
Anamato (2)
Douro Valley (4)
Eskimo Queen (5)
Princess Coup (19)
Master O'Reilly (6)

The above are the ones who I think are the only dangers. Maldivian gets the 1, and his main dangers the swooper mares get 2 and 5. The nemesis gets 4, and the other main danger the 6. Meanwhile the only one likely to take up the speed with him Cinque Cento gets the 3. The X Factor in 8.

My outsiders the 14 and 19 will need a lot of luck.

 

[CF]

The barrier draw was amazing I thought.

Blutigeroo (14)
Maybe Better (8)
Maldivian (1)
Anamato (2)
Douro Valley (4)
Eskimo Queen (5)
Princess Coup (19)
Master O'Reilly (6)

The above are the ones who I think are the only dangers. Maldivian gets the 1, and his main dangers the swooper mares get 2 and 5. The nemesis gets 4, and the other main danger the 6. Meanwhile the only one likely to take up the speed with him Cinque Cento gets the 3. The X Factor in 8.

My outsiders the 14 and 19 will need a lot of luck.

yeah pretty much what I was thinking

 

[sethlad]

Scenic Shot draws 18 & suddenly its a 50/1 chance?

seth

 

[thecarpetsnake]

Princess Coup - rate the NZ form right up there with the Tassie form

Reckon the best roughie is Zavite, usually something pops up at good odds and he will race handy and will run the trip. He's not much good but did beat Dolphin Joe by a fair way last Saturday and its about the same price. I don't think he is the worst $67 chance I've ever seen

I know J'adane's no superstar, but the Kelt stakes is a serious race. Did you see it? Princess Coup hit the line like a train.

I can guarantee she'll finish ahead of Zavite anyway...

 

[ShanBoi]

Cinque Cento... Thoughts?

 

[BertRito]

Cinque Cento... Thoughts?

Absolute non-winner so far. Can't see it upstaging the others.

 

[rdangelo]

Plenty talk about Maldivian.

Is it as a sure thing as everyone is making out?

 

[thecarpetsnake]

Cinque Cento... Thoughts?

I can't see her winning. That being said, $55 on betfair is pretty long for something that's had one bad run all campaign (in a race where a lot of things flopped).

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

I know J'adane's no superstar, but the Kelt stakes is a serious race. Did you see it? Princess Coup hit the line like a train.

I can guarantee she'll finish ahead of Zavite anyway...

Who cares who finishes 14th and 15th

 

[Angus1]

Plenty talk about Maldivian.

Is it as a sure thing as everyone is making out?

Don't know if it's a sure thing but he is easily the best horse in the race IMO.
I'm checking his record now actually and there isn't another runner in this event with a record even close.
$2.50 though is very short for a Caulfield Cup so i'm looking for something with a bit of value. Douro Valley is at $13.00 and is in top form at the moment and loves Caulfield so that is probably where my money will go.

Would loved to have had a bet on Maldivian about a month ago.

 

[ormond-allen]

Its hard to fault Maldivian. Looking for something to beat it though. Have managed to put a line through most names, and now I'm left with:
Master O'reilly
Douro Valley
Eskimo Queen
Might throw in a couple of $20-plus chances in tris ie Purple Moon and Blue Monday.

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Was talking to a bookmaking mate today and he said something interesting to me in that he believed that if this was just an ordinary Saturday handicap against the same field then Maldivian would be around $1.80 based on form and weights but purely because its a Caulfield Cup with plenty of differing opinions (and mug money to square the book) he will start at very backable odds. Also reckon he will be paying close to $3 on the TAB come Saturday - bit like Weekend Hussler coming up at $3.80 last week but this week the pool will be about 5 times bigger so he shouldn't shorten as much.

Must admit that I am not as confident as some despite pumping his tyres up all spring - think its starting to hit me how much I have him going for and I'm looking for negatives. Don't you hate that punting mindset.

Have the utmost respect for Eskimo Queen though and she finally draws a barrier here so will definitely be backing her and Douro Valley as savers

 

[sethlad]

Front running CC faves have a great record in the last 10 yrs.
I cant back him at $2.5 but its hard to back anything seriously against him.

I think EQ will race forward from the good barrier so should get her chance.
One try at the trip,admittedly in a 3yo race for a dominant win.
Hard not to save on DV at the odds,cant have done more.
SS at $20 (Bfair) was too good to refuse,you'd think he'd lost a leg,not drawn 18.

seth

 

[Syrah]

I'll take Maldivian and Douro Valley to run the quinella for the third time in their careers.

Also agree that Scenic Shot has to be a huge chance. His run in the Turnbull was very similar to that of Serious Speed on the same day and we all saw what we she did yesterday.

Not convinced on Eskimo Queen or Anamato and I can see Master O'Reilly and Maybe Better running on late into third or fourth but maybe not winning chances.

Very hard to make a case for any others.

 

[Dinga_19]

Hard to fault Maldivian although at these odds i will. I just think those odds are too short conisdering this is a caulfield cup and in a high pressure situation he will have to really tough it out.

I think the winner will come from one of these.. Anamato, Maybe Better, Scenic shot or Eskimoe Queen. These horses have been set for this race and have all had nice lead up races and run home strongly and i think one of them will get it right on saturday. Maildivian will take some running down though...

BTW I have taken Maybe Better ($11) all up into Miss Finland ($3.50) for the Cox Plate.

 

[Lockyer24]

Tawqeet - Have to overlook the 2006 winner as he has actually dropped on in form as he has stepped up in distance rather than improving as expected. Last years Melb Cup run has broken his heart. Won the Metropolitan before this last year, so had form behind him.

Blue Monday - An unknown quantity who has not been disgraced in his lead up runs, but hasn't shown much either. An eyecatching run here and perhaps the Melbourne Cup will be on the agenda although might be better off tackling something a bit weaker over the Carnival like Polar Bear did last year on Cup Day.

Blutigeroo - Would prefer softer ground but do not write off the BMW winner, who drops back into handicaps where his record is exceptional around these distances. Similar leadup form to Blue Monday, he too if failing here might be better off in something weaker.

Railings - The 2005 winner is not what he was but even at lengthy odds, I would not discount. Another to win the Metropolitan before he won, but with poor lead up form unlikely to run that well again.

Maybe Better - Looks set for the Melbourne Cup after his slashing final 100 in the Yalumba. Back to handicap weight he is a massive danger, won a race over 1800m on this day last year, although I get the feeling he is being primed to peak Melbourne Cup Day and a placing will be his best effort.

Black Tom - A forgotten horse of the field, the former WA galloper is in the Hayes yard so this alone must give him half a chance, although Im comfortable to leave out.

Purple Moon - The Europeans just seem too dour for races like this, will be surely just looking for a hit out before the Melbourne Cup.

Maldivian - The Bold frontrunner/on-pacer has hit peak form and the only thing that could stop him is if he is boxed in on the rails and forced to race against his normal pattern, or if he doesn't see out the distance. Rodd rides well he wins.

Cinque Cento - Likely to charge to the front and probably sit on the outside of Maldivian or crossover and lead. Will be in it for a long way, especially if she rides Maldys coat tails.

Mandela - Geelong Cup winner last year and involved in the ripping blanket finish in the Kelt Stakes in NZ. On track for the Melbourne Cup again but not good enough I'd think.

Scenic Shot - Faultless form leading up to this and his eyecatching 2nd at WFA level last start rocketed him into calculations. If there is a suprise winner ala last year, he will be it.

Annenkov - Another one easy to overlook however form is reasonable and the step up in distance should see improvement.

Anamato - Last run was excellent and easily overlooked as she finished strongly but not as well as her illustrious stablemate. I like her but think she's a touch below the best.

Douro Valley - The Maldy punters potential worst nightmare as he was the last horse to run him down. Faultless form, however the Beadman factor that day and lack o fitness o Maldys part surely contributed.

Sirmione - Wasn't good enough for the Derby last year, doubt he is much better this year. Sucked people in a bit earlier in the campaign but I give him no chance as his form suggests.

Eskimo Queen - Overlook the Flemington Twilight Zone Turnbull run and she is smack bang on target. Although I think like Maybe Better her final 100 will be scorching and Melbourne Cup will be her thing.

Princess Coup - An amazing win in the Kelt in NZ but I query how that field measures up - the 2nd horse that day was a B grader in Australia. That said if anything is popping up in the shadow of the post to take the lead it could be her especially with Bossy aboard.

Master O'Reilly - Big fan of Master O but think he is very good not brilliant. From the good gate has the chance to not let Maldy get out of his sights this time round. I like him more in the Melbourne Cup but will finish Top 5 I would expect.

For once in my life Im going to tip exactly what I thought a month ago..if not some months.. 1. Maldivian 2. Master O'Reilly 3. Blutigeroo

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Pretty much agree with all of that L24

Framing a market for last I would have Railings a very short pricd favourite

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Who cares who finishes 14th and 15th

Prepared to offer odds that Princess Coup will finish better than 14th?

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Prepared to offer odds that Princess Coup will finish better than 14th?

Backing or laying horses to finish 14th or better isn't usually my go - much prefer to back winners

 

[__Ron_]

AvB betting on Betfair!! (heads up matches)

Master O vs Eskimo Queen
Douro Valley vs Maybe Better

Anyone have thoughts on these?

My initial reaction is, Douro Valley beats home Maybe better no problems.
The other i'm prepared to leave alone.I'm convinced Master O isn't suited to a Caulfield Cup.