2007 Caulfield Cup Thread

[angus6]

with the past two winners coming through the metrop in sydney what race do punters now believe will be the best guide to finding the winner?

 

[sethlad]

At least half of the last 8 have come through the AJC 3yo classics,many through the Derby but we wont be seeing that form in Melb this Spring.

seth

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Definitely be the horses going through the WFA preparations like Maldivian, Efficient and a few others will take. Most of the pre Cup handicaps in Melbourne have been like hurdlers flats over the past few years and even though the Metrop has been a handicap race and been a good guide recently I can't see another handicap race replacing it as a form guide. Unlike most years, horses will find it a lot easier to qualify this year so can stick to a WFA prep (and not risk a penalty) and won't have to worry about racing in a Metrop or other handicap to become exempt or get the weight penalty to qualify.

Will be shocked if anything wins that doesn't go through the Turnbull or even the Underwood but the Turnbull Stakes has to be the race as its a fortnight before the CC which seems to be the favourite preparation time for trainers.

Reckon most of the big guns will be in the Turnbull so will get a chance to line up the form then.

 

[angus6]

anyone know what the best odds available are for maybe better?

 

[sethlad]

He's $15 at Sportingbet which is the best around.

seth

 

[eastaugh36]

Put on 2 roughies today. King of Ashford at $81. I've always been a fan of him but may be the type who goes for a Sandown classic.
Anamato at $67. Hayes is really leaving his options open with this one but have always been a fan and his Hollywood Park run was good and she was very unlucky. From all reports has settled back in nicely in Australia and looks great.

 

[sethlad]

Not much doubt Eskimo Queen will be fave after that run.
Knocked over twice & beaten 2 lengths,drops to 50.5 in the CC
That Devil Moon form is white hot

seth

 

[eastaugh36]

Anamato will surely be headed to the caulfield cup after todays run instead of the shorter races. Not a bad run from last down the outside.

 

[Lockyer24]

Dont think Maldy is good enough

 

[go fullta]

i dont think douro valley has the class too win the caulfield cup!! keep your money in your pocket there...

im pretty sure he couldnt even win at Ararat earlier in the year!!

hmm its a weak caulfield cup if he can win it, even after winning impressively yesterday!!

 

[angus6]

Maldy cant win on yesterdays effort. It probably looks to be a battle between maybe better and eskimo queen.

 

[Chattanooga]

I would not be writing off Douro Valley at all. This horse is improving every time it goes to the races (yes, even as a 6yo).

Danny O'Brien is certainly doing something right with this fella, and he is now as consistent a beast as you will find.

'Experts' may take pot-shots at some of his form, (IE - beaten in a Warrnambool Cup, though if you go back and watch a replay you will agree that it was a massive run), but if anyone rates Maldivian any chance at all you will find DV's form is at least as strong.

This is one tough customer and I will be most surprised if the owners don't receive a cheque of some description from the MRC post Caulfield Cup.

 

[sethlad]

Latest CC order of elimination

http://www.racenet.com.au/2007CCup.pdf

seth

 

[eastaugh36]

Pleasing to see Anamato into $26 from the $67 I got about her a few weeks back.

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Bumped

Thought it may save people like me posting in the formtalk thread which is for friday night.

I'm still with Maldivian

followed by

Douro Valley
Master O'Reilly
Eskimo Queen

Will be very surprised if anything outside that 4 wins

 

[__Ron_]

Bulldog, what do you make of Scenic shots last start effort?

 

[Chattanooga]

Think it will be a very similar result to the Naturalism a few weeks ago.

Can see Douro being close enough to Maldivian in the run, that he will be able to grind him down in the last furlong.

The danger will be Master O steaming home over the pair, but I expect the winning post to get there first.

I'll be taking the tri : Douro Valley - Maldivian/Master O - Master O/Maldivian for $10.


Might pay $100 for a dollar??

(Remember lots of nongs bet on the CC, though not as many as the MC)

 

[sethlad]

Based on Maldivian's run on Saturday, if he runs a strong 2400 he wins, simple as that.

Just an incredible performance after pulling his head off in quick sectionals and I really liked the way he toughed out the last 200 when he had every right to lay down.(20 Aug)

Between Tassie & Lockyer we've only got ourselves to blame if we're not live in Cups doubles.
I was a doubter til MV,just didnt like the way he pulled in the MD but honestly,if he runs a strong 2400 he looks pitched in.

seth

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Bulldog, what do you make of Scenic shots last start effort?

Was very good, I was on Devil Moon and saw this thing in gold colours coming and thought it was Marasco (who I had laid for plenty) so was very nervous there for a second.

Don't think there's any doubt that he will go round over the odds he should be, just not one of mine as is either red hot or ice cold. Wouldn't surprise me at all, probably my next pick actually but you can't have them all and if he doesn't draw well then think his chances are shot (pardon the pun).

Don't like the following:

Maybe Better - just don't think he has the accelaration to go with a few of these around Caulfield, they will put a couple of lengths on him when they let down but Flemington may be a different story

Anamato - finished further behind Maldivian at the finish than she was behind him on the turn last week and he was eased down, plus she meets him worse at the weights. Take the D Hayes hype factor away and she would be 33/1

Princess Coup - rate the NZ form right up there with the Tassie form

Reckon the best roughie is Zavite, usually something pops up at good odds and he will race handy and will run the trip. He's not much good but did beat Dolphin Joe by a fair way last Saturday and its about the same price. I don't think he is the worst $67 chance I've ever seen

 

[sethlad]

I know a few here have the big odds Anamato & good luck to them but Im not a fan.
Every year Hayes/Waterhouse bobs up with one of these latecomers & they never win,eg Growl,Desert War
I have a serious doubt over her 2400 credentials,she's a half to an Oakleigh Plate winner & is from the Grand Armee family (he was a star but never won past 2000m)

Very hard to be on M Better after this from Mayfield Smith today:
"If Maybe Better is getting home good on Sat,Ill be mentally holding on to his tail.
A CC would be nice but the MC is the race I really want to win.
We dont want any more weight"


seth

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Very hard to be on M Better after this from Mayfield Smith today:
"If Maybe Better is getting home good on Sat,Ill be mentally holding on to his tail.
A CC would be nice but the MC is the race I really want to win.
We dont want any more weight"


seth

Heard them say on TVN over the weekend that he will retire if he wins the Cup - seems the type of bloke who might just do that as well

 

[cefalu_instinct]

Don't forget Annenkov boys, has been set for this race and just went around to top him off last week. Will be up on pace and is looking for 2400m.

 

[sethlad]

Did he get a run CI?
I heard he was =18 with Sarrera,committee to decide last spot

seth

 

[cefalu_instinct]

Pretty sure he will. WFA form plus Ansett Classic win when beating Sarrera will get him over the line it looks like.

 

[discoduck]

tabracing have fixed odds on final field with annenkov in the field and sarrera first emergency. you would think that must be official.

go the kov!