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2011 Draft Discussion Part 3
- Thread starter POBT
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And this is why I am scratching my head as to why everybody has gone cold on Elton. He is 197cm, has a big endurance tank, lightning quick (quicker than Kersten in the 20m sprints and Kersten is renowned for his quick leads at FF), was third at the combine with an 89cm vertical leap (and he is 197cm!!!), takes a strong mark, in the top 10 for clean hands (from the Combine tests) and can pinch-hit in the ruck very competently indeed. Guys bigger than 194cm with skills and athleticism are incredibly thin in this draft, so I think we should seriously consider him.
There's a lot of hype around Tomlinson for his versatility and athleticism. Elton has it too, plus an extra few cms and an equal dose of athleticism. For a side like the Lions having holes in the ruck and at both ends of the field, he seems like a perfect pick for me... especially if Tomlinson's key attractions for the Lions are versatility and athleticism also.
POBT
Brownlow Medallist
- Thread starter
- #54
I think what Elton does on the footy field is what is concerning some. A junior footy follower I know used the phrase "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". He then followed it up with "that's probably a bit harsh" but the impression is that he is not making the most of his physical and athletic attributes.
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Doc Wieldon
Debutant
Article in the Herald Sun today on Jay Lever. I haven't heard much chatter around BF on him - one thing that got my attention was the fact he's 200cm, super athletic (didn't play in the ruck at all this year!), best kick at his TAC Cup side on both feet and his favourite position is CHB! Gee that doesn't sound at all like something we'd be interested in... 
Could he be a shot at pick 30?
Quigs have you any info on this guy? Apologies if you've covered it off previously - i don't remember seeing a write up in your mock draft but it was 1million words long so i might have missed it
Cheers
Could he be a shot at pick 30?
Quigs have you any info on this guy? Apologies if you've covered it off previously - i don't remember seeing a write up in your mock draft but it was 1million words long so i might have missed it
Cheers
whatboutbob
Serial Avatar Troll
Going head to head with a live Q&A with Emma Quayle.
Lever didn't really impress me much to tell the truth. He measured in at 198 with poor endurance (in the 12s) and otherwise only average athleticism. He didn't really seem to have much idea about how to get into games when I saw him. He is a nice flat kick of the ball but he didn't get it enough for my liking. He played some ruck at the Champs but did not look particularly suited to that role.
Still at 47 there would be worse options than a big guy who can kick the ball very nicely. He needs work though and plenty of it. If you wanted a comparison to one of our now former guys it would be McCulloch. He and big Bart are similar players I think.
Still at 47 there would be worse options than a big guy who can kick the ball very nicely. He needs work though and plenty of it. If you wanted a comparison to one of our now former guys it would be McCulloch. He and big Bart are similar players I think.
whatboutbob
Serial Avatar Troll
Crusha
Growing Old (dis)Gracefully
Whilst I have always enjoyed “playing the Draft game”, I have never considered myself a “Draft Tragic”……..until now.
After many hours spent pouring over all available video and verbage (that I could find) associated with the 2011 Draft, and now 3 consecutive nights of broken sleep and 2011 Draft dreams (in some cases nightmares), I have come to the self realisation that I am truly a “DT”.
So, having considered all on here as my “Sponsors”, and in the best tradition of a “Speaker Meeting”, I offer the following (if for nothing else, to at least get a good nights sleep tonight):
Hi, my name is Crusha, and I am a “Draft Tragic”, and here are my musings for the 2011 National Draft.
I am expecting that Patton, Coniglio and Tyson are certain selections in GWS’s first 5, and they would be in mine if I was in their shoes.
That brings us to their first bracket of key picks that will shape our early selections.
I am of the belief that GWS would want both Tomlinson and Longer on their roster, and that they would assume that at least one (if not both) of these may be on the wish lists of Port and the Lions. But I think they would believe that Port’s greater need at pick 6 (having traded for Renouf to support Lobbe, Reddan, and the Rookie Curnow) would be a quality midfielder, so they will let both “slide” at this point.
If I were in GWS’s shoes I would have Buntine in their top 5 because I think he would be the right choice for their list and I rate him (even though I know Quig’s does not agree). And because of his elevation in ranking as a result of his combine results, and because I think he is another good fit for GWS, I see Hoskin-Elliott as their other top five selection.
So, in no particular order, First 5 GWS selections:
1.Patton
2.Coniglio
3.Tyson
4.Buntine
5.Hoskin-Elliott
That means that Wingard is available at Pick 6, and I expect Port to be quick to read out his name here (and I think GWS would expect that as well). They will have had Wingard in their top 5 for some time, but letting him slide assists in their overall strategy, and having added Coniglio & Tyson to their existing quality midfield, and with several other good options still available for later picks, I see this as the likely scenario.
Now, to the next strategic 2011 selection, Pick 7, GWS.
Assuming they want both Longer and Tomlinson, as I do, one or the other is taken here, and I believe that will be Tomlinson. To me, Brisbane is less likely to select Longer at 8 than Tomlinson. Whilst we have a need to boost Ruck stocks, we have just brought in Hudson as short term back up for Leuey (and as a possible Ruck Coach option down the track) and even if we hadn’t, I don’t believe Longer would be a viable short term option to step in if needed in 2012, or possibly even 2013). Better to make a Ruck selection later in this Draft, or as a Rookie Selection(s) , depending on whom is available, at which pick.
6. Wingard
7. Tomlinson
So, with what is generally considered to be the best KPP selection not available, what do we do at pick 8?
For me this pick has to be considered in conjunction with pick 12, and with GWS having picks 9, 10 & 11.
The popular pick 8 suggestion has been Greene, with other mids such as Adams, D. Smith & Sumner also available, along with other “highly fancied” options such as Docherty, Kavanagh, Haynes Crozier, Kersten, Ellis etc.etc……
Given that GWS will take Longer with one their following picks, we have to consider what they may do with their other two picks prior to 12.
It’s hard to say whether they will go with “best available”, “needs fit” or take a punt on one or two bust/boom selections (given their next pick is not until 56, and remembering they do have Kevin Sheedy in their camp !!!).
I see us taking one of the aforementioned Mids and Docherty with our two selections.
So, even if GWS took two of the available Mids, with Longer, at 9-11, two would still be available at 12 (and either would not be “out of place” on our list).
I think GWS will only take one, with the most likely being Smith (because of his ability to go forward and kick goals). And if it is to be two, then I expect Adams to be the other. But I think their third pick here will be a needs/boom/bust pick, and suggest Frost, who has potential as a KPP/Ruck (but it could be anyone, including Docherty). Choosing 1 Mid would still leave GWS with an available option of the remaining Mid for selection at 13 or 14 (if wanted).
To ensure that GWS do not choose Docherty at 9-11, he would be my pick at 8, in this scenario.
8. Docherty
9. Longer
10. D. Smith
11. Frost
And with 12, I see us going with Greene or Adams, with a preference for Greene.
12. Greene
It is impossible to predict how the next 17 picks will go, but hey, DT’s create their own power rankings list (well, I did at least).
Given the outcomes above, I expect us to look at what is available from a KPP perspective at 30. I expect Schade, Lockyer (not quite a KPP), Dobosz and Kersten to have been taken, but would seriously consider any of them here if available, as well as Frost (if my earlier prediction proves off the mark).
The KPP’s I expect could be available & would consider include Curran, Paine, Bussey, Darrou, Bosseley & Blee. Other “types” I would consider here if available (but likely to be gone) include Murdoch (who I would like to get onto our list), B. McKenzie and Markworth.
Also under consideration here would be Ben Brown, despite my earlier comments re. taking a ruckman in the ND. I qualify his inclusion having been convinced by others (including Quigs) that he has potential as a KPF/Ruck.
That said, from whom I expect to be available, my pick would be:
30. Curran
I don’t expect many to be “on board” with this selection (including, possibly, the Lions recruiters). But I am of the belief that Hawthorn did not select him as a F/S because they anticipated it would take a First Rnd pick, and they did want that pick for the Gunston trade, and not because of any doubts about his ability. I do expect them to pick him up, if available, at either 33 or 38, so I would get in here.
It’s even more difficult at 47 to anticipate who might be available, and the “talent pool” is definitely thinning at this point. For me it would be Brown if he is still on the board, but I expect he will not be available (unless there are still concerns from others regarding his knee, but anticipating that our due diligence says his knee is OK).
My rankings list (which is “Lions needs focussed”) has Elliot Yeo slipping to here, and he would be my pick if available, other than Brown, but I also expect he will not be there on the night.
Whilst I was not intending to consider a delisted player in the ND, the thinning talent pool at 47 has forced me to do so. Of those available, and from what I saw of him in the VFL finals, I have considered Ben Ross here. But having done so, I have risked winning the 2011 AFL DRAFT CHALLWELL (I was seduced by a youtube video) AWARD, and opted for:
47. Aaron Hall (but Ben Brown if available).
So that’s:
8. Docherty
12. Greene/Adams
30. Curran
47. Brown/Hall
Sorry for the extra long post, but that’s what happens when DT’s are given the floor, and have had very little sleep of late.
ps Go easy on me…..I’m in DT Rehab remember……..and you’re my sponsors.
pps My preferred wish list of possible early picks would be
8. Buntine/Tomlinson/Docherty
12. Tomlinson/Docherty/Greene
After many hours spent pouring over all available video and verbage (that I could find) associated with the 2011 Draft, and now 3 consecutive nights of broken sleep and 2011 Draft dreams (in some cases nightmares), I have come to the self realisation that I am truly a “DT”.
So, having considered all on here as my “Sponsors”, and in the best tradition of a “Speaker Meeting”, I offer the following (if for nothing else, to at least get a good nights sleep tonight):
Hi, my name is Crusha, and I am a “Draft Tragic”, and here are my musings for the 2011 National Draft.
I am expecting that Patton, Coniglio and Tyson are certain selections in GWS’s first 5, and they would be in mine if I was in their shoes.
That brings us to their first bracket of key picks that will shape our early selections.
I am of the belief that GWS would want both Tomlinson and Longer on their roster, and that they would assume that at least one (if not both) of these may be on the wish lists of Port and the Lions. But I think they would believe that Port’s greater need at pick 6 (having traded for Renouf to support Lobbe, Reddan, and the Rookie Curnow) would be a quality midfielder, so they will let both “slide” at this point.
If I were in GWS’s shoes I would have Buntine in their top 5 because I think he would be the right choice for their list and I rate him (even though I know Quig’s does not agree). And because of his elevation in ranking as a result of his combine results, and because I think he is another good fit for GWS, I see Hoskin-Elliott as their other top five selection.
So, in no particular order, First 5 GWS selections:
1.Patton
2.Coniglio
3.Tyson
4.Buntine
5.Hoskin-Elliott
That means that Wingard is available at Pick 6, and I expect Port to be quick to read out his name here (and I think GWS would expect that as well). They will have had Wingard in their top 5 for some time, but letting him slide assists in their overall strategy, and having added Coniglio & Tyson to their existing quality midfield, and with several other good options still available for later picks, I see this as the likely scenario.
Now, to the next strategic 2011 selection, Pick 7, GWS.
Assuming they want both Longer and Tomlinson, as I do, one or the other is taken here, and I believe that will be Tomlinson. To me, Brisbane is less likely to select Longer at 8 than Tomlinson. Whilst we have a need to boost Ruck stocks, we have just brought in Hudson as short term back up for Leuey (and as a possible Ruck Coach option down the track) and even if we hadn’t, I don’t believe Longer would be a viable short term option to step in if needed in 2012, or possibly even 2013). Better to make a Ruck selection later in this Draft, or as a Rookie Selection(s) , depending on whom is available, at which pick.
6. Wingard
7. Tomlinson
So, with what is generally considered to be the best KPP selection not available, what do we do at pick 8?
For me this pick has to be considered in conjunction with pick 12, and with GWS having picks 9, 10 & 11.
The popular pick 8 suggestion has been Greene, with other mids such as Adams, D. Smith & Sumner also available, along with other “highly fancied” options such as Docherty, Kavanagh, Haynes Crozier, Kersten, Ellis etc.etc……
Given that GWS will take Longer with one their following picks, we have to consider what they may do with their other two picks prior to 12.
It’s hard to say whether they will go with “best available”, “needs fit” or take a punt on one or two bust/boom selections (given their next pick is not until 56, and remembering they do have Kevin Sheedy in their camp !!!).
I see us taking one of the aforementioned Mids and Docherty with our two selections.
So, even if GWS took two of the available Mids, with Longer, at 9-11, two would still be available at 12 (and either would not be “out of place” on our list).
I think GWS will only take one, with the most likely being Smith (because of his ability to go forward and kick goals). And if it is to be two, then I expect Adams to be the other. But I think their third pick here will be a needs/boom/bust pick, and suggest Frost, who has potential as a KPP/Ruck (but it could be anyone, including Docherty). Choosing 1 Mid would still leave GWS with an available option of the remaining Mid for selection at 13 or 14 (if wanted).
To ensure that GWS do not choose Docherty at 9-11, he would be my pick at 8, in this scenario.
8. Docherty
9. Longer
10. D. Smith
11. Frost
And with 12, I see us going with Greene or Adams, with a preference for Greene.
12. Greene
It is impossible to predict how the next 17 picks will go, but hey, DT’s create their own power rankings list (well, I did at least).
Given the outcomes above, I expect us to look at what is available from a KPP perspective at 30. I expect Schade, Lockyer (not quite a KPP), Dobosz and Kersten to have been taken, but would seriously consider any of them here if available, as well as Frost (if my earlier prediction proves off the mark).
The KPP’s I expect could be available & would consider include Curran, Paine, Bussey, Darrou, Bosseley & Blee. Other “types” I would consider here if available (but likely to be gone) include Murdoch (who I would like to get onto our list), B. McKenzie and Markworth.
Also under consideration here would be Ben Brown, despite my earlier comments re. taking a ruckman in the ND. I qualify his inclusion having been convinced by others (including Quigs) that he has potential as a KPF/Ruck.
That said, from whom I expect to be available, my pick would be:
30. Curran
I don’t expect many to be “on board” with this selection (including, possibly, the Lions recruiters). But I am of the belief that Hawthorn did not select him as a F/S because they anticipated it would take a First Rnd pick, and they did want that pick for the Gunston trade, and not because of any doubts about his ability. I do expect them to pick him up, if available, at either 33 or 38, so I would get in here.
It’s even more difficult at 47 to anticipate who might be available, and the “talent pool” is definitely thinning at this point. For me it would be Brown if he is still on the board, but I expect he will not be available (unless there are still concerns from others regarding his knee, but anticipating that our due diligence says his knee is OK).
My rankings list (which is “Lions needs focussed”) has Elliot Yeo slipping to here, and he would be my pick if available, other than Brown, but I also expect he will not be there on the night.
Whilst I was not intending to consider a delisted player in the ND, the thinning talent pool at 47 has forced me to do so. Of those available, and from what I saw of him in the VFL finals, I have considered Ben Ross here. But having done so, I have risked winning the 2011 AFL DRAFT CHALLWELL (I was seduced by a youtube video) AWARD, and opted for:
47. Aaron Hall (but Ben Brown if available).
So that’s:
8. Docherty
12. Greene/Adams
30. Curran
47. Brown/Hall
Sorry for the extra long post, but that’s what happens when DT’s are given the floor, and have had very little sleep of late.
ps Go easy on me…..I’m in DT Rehab remember……..and you’re my sponsors.
pps My preferred wish list of possible early picks would be
8. Buntine/Tomlinson/Docherty
12. Tomlinson/Docherty/Greene
I know, then she comes out with:
Emma Quayle said:
Which would have the top 8 according to EQ (with rumours) as:
GWS - Patton, Coniglio, Tyson, Buntine, Wingard
PAP - Devon Smith
GWS - Adam Tomlinson
Bris - WHEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
All hope of me not getting my hopes up are dashed.
POBT
Brownlow Medallist
- Thread starter
- #64
Hi Emma
Still some talk that Brisbane might take Longer at pick 8. How likely is that?
Nate | Brisbane - November 23, 2011, 12:15PM
Hi Nate, it's definitely a chance as they definitely need to get some ruckmen in, but I suspect they'll look elsewhere early on and grab a ruck later. Tom Downie from North Ballarat is a chance.
Emma - November 23, 2011, 12:26PM
Still some talk that Brisbane might take Longer at pick 8. How likely is that?
Nate | Brisbane - November 23, 2011, 12:15PM
Hi Nate, it's definitely a chance as they definitely need to get some ruckmen in, but I suspect they'll look elsewhere early on and grab a ruck later. Tom Downie from North Ballarat is a chance.
Emma - November 23, 2011, 12:26PM
Some knob on the blog:
What an idiot.
knobface said:
What an idiot.
Thanks NateSomeone should ask if she has any mail on the Tasmanians.
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I'd be happy with this. Don't know alot about Kelly but happy with the others.
Hollow Knight
Imperfect vessel
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Phelan has Manson to Port at 51. I'd like to think we'd take the punt on him at 47 if he was there.
Grimreepah
BigFooty One Armed Man
The Phelanatron seems to be largely based on rankings, and not so much on inside info.
Crusha
Growing Old (dis)Gracefully
We must be on a similar wavelength with this years draft.
We had "like" views on Curran in my earlier post, and if it wasn't for my suggesting of Hall so that I could get the "Challwell Award" gag included (again), my rankings list at 47 had both Webster (of the Taswegian variety) and Schloithe as preferred possible options.
I do still like Hall though (but most likely as a Rookie selection).
ps I didn't have Merritt available at 47
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