2011 Draft Discussion

[whatboutbob]

Thanks Belgo.

Emma's not a fan of this year's crop, is she?

Some interesting bits and pieces in there:

Unfortunately this year's talls don't look a brilliant group. I'm sure some of them will go on to be very good players but none of them are really looking absolute certainties at this stage. You mentioned Patton, and I think GWS will also pick Vic Metro ruckman Billy Longer. Some have shown glimpses, such as Xavier Richards, Sam Frost, Sam Gordon, Brody Mihocek (more a 'third tall'), Jordan Kelly (same) Michael Talia, Adam Tomlinson and a few more..... but as a group, the safer bets seem the midfielders.

I haven't heard much on Clark but gut feel says he will go to GWS.

The draft isn't looking brilliant, to be honest. I'm sure more players will emerge later in the year but the recruiters will be working hard. I think everyone is hanging out for next year's draft, and planning to take more picks in that one. If a club other than GWS makes huge inroads on the back of this draft they will have done extremely well.

Emma's take on the GWS 17yo situation is also an interesting read.

 

[whatboutbob]

Geez, she's pretty negative about the quality of this draft.

Not sure we should have cashed in that first compo pick this year in light of that. Especially as we could end up with a priority pick at the end of the first round anyway.

A lot of water to go under the bridge yet. IH/KWT.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Two compo picks to Freo for O'Meara (or someone else?)

 

[Mayestro]

Geez, she's pretty negative about the quality of this draft.

Not sure we should have cashed in that first compo pick this year in light of that. Especially as we could end up with a priority pick at the end of the first round anyway.

Still, not a bad way to relatively quickly refresh our playing stocks-
-4 picks inside the top 35 last year
-4 picks inside the top 30-35 this year (if we get the priority pick)
-4 picks inside the top 30 next year (if we're bottom 4 again, which seems likely) if we use our other Band 3 compo and the Clark compo. If next year is similar to this year with less that 5 wins (please, jeebus, no) we could have 5 in the top 30.

12 top 35 picks across 3 years is not a bad effort. However yes, it does sound like using 3 this year and 5 next year would have been more ideal.

Though TFB's idea of swapping 2 compo picks for O'Meara would be tempting (if that's what he's suggesting), giving us a chance at an elite talent as we're unlikely to have too many picks 1-3 unfortunately (or rather gladly- I'm happy to avoid the wooden spoon if possible).

 

[whatboutbob]

With games against Adelaide and GC to come, I've got this persistent gnawing feeling that we're going to miss out on the priority pick by one win. Grrr. I'm not suggesting we tank, but it'll be frustrating to *just* miss out on compensation after sucking hard for two years.

As for O'Meara, if the Suns are genuinely willing to part with pick 4 (and possibly more) then I'd doubt two picks in the 20's will get it done. Perhaps another 17yo...or our first rounder plus a compo pick...*shrug*

 

[The Flying Belgian]

However our Clark comp pick would be able to be banked until next year which may be of interest to GWS

 

[Tassie4ever]

Forgive my pessimism, but I'm a little doubtful about our recruitment processes, not matter what options might become available.

I give you: Polec v Heppell; Leuenberger v J Selwood; K Tippet v Proud; Banfield v M Robinson; and Karnezis v Darling. Perhaps a bit harsh on Banfield and Karnezis, and even Leuenberger, but I'd argue we'd be a better side with the alternatives.

 

[dlanod]

Leuenberger v J Selwood - Up in the air at the moment. J. Selwood has been very good, and we'd probably be a better team now with him, but this year we're starting to see what Leuenberger could be and it looks promising.

K. Tippett v Proud - Agreed.

A large number of delisted picks v anyone taken after them - Agreed.

----- Drawing a line here because this is where we had a new recruiting manager -----

Banfield v M. Robinson - I think Robinson might make us better now, but I'm not convinced that'd be true in two years time. If you took a straw poll of which people would prefer on the team they follow, I think Banfield would win.

Polec v Heppell & Karnesis v Darling - Again, yeah sure, we would be better now but seriously... these guys were drafted this year. Unless they get delisted at the end of this year, who the **** knows where they're going to end up.

 

[dlanod]

I'll add a second note that these comparisons are inevitably bullshit. It's easy to search through, with hindsight, and find a pick later that looks better than any given pick unless it really is a superstar that the club took, i.e. Simon Black.

To give an example, sure, Tippett is better than Proud but the player taken immediately after him was Paul Stewart, who has underwhelmed for Port.

 

[whatboutbob]

A powerful combo of 20/20 hindsight and foresight you've got there Tassie.

1) When talking about future picks I'm not sure what the point is of questioning the recruitment processes of former staff (ie the Leuie & Proud picks). I'm not even going to get into the tall vs mid debate - that's been done to death.

2) Heppell and Darling were always going to jump out of the blocks - they were a lot more AFL-ready than Polec and Karnezis. I, for one, am glad our recruiters and list manager aren't focused on the short-term though when it comes to drafting. That's not where our team is at. Heppell and Darling may well end up the better players in the long haul, but you're brave to make the call now.

3) Banfield was taken at 41. Robinson was taken at 40. If you must compare (and I think it is ridiculous to do so) you'll need to look at Redden (25) vs Robinson.

4) No club nails every pick. Going through clubs' draft histories you're *always* going to find hits and misses. While recruitment is improving it will never be an exact science. Tippet was taken at #32 for a reason btw, and 9 other clubs passed on him between Proud's pick and him.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Forgive my pessimism, but I'm a little doubtful about our recruitment processes, not matter what options might become available.

I give you: Polec v Heppell; Leuenberger v J Selwood; K Tippet v Proud; Banfield v M Robinson; and Karnezis v Darling. Perhaps a bit harsh on Banfield and Karnezis, and even Leuenberger, but I'd argue we'd be a better side with the alternatives.

You can find these examples and far worse with every club tassie. Lets give our players a chance to get to develop before we start criticising the recruitment. It's a very short sighted view to have a go at any of those players bar Proud. Ruckman always take longer to hit their peak, Leuey is already one of the top ruckman in the league and he still has a fair way to go.

 

[dlanod]

To use just this recruiting team's history when compared to the pick immediately after our's, as opposed to cherry picking:
- Would you rather Rich or Vickey?
- Redden or Jayden Post?
- Banfield or Mitch Banner?
- Cornelius or Tom Hislop?
- Bartlett or Mitch Duncan? (Well, obviously Mitch Duncan given it's all about the now.)
- Harwood or Jesse Crichton?
- Jesse O'Brien or Josh Thomas?
- Retzlaff or... well... no one? (No non-recycled players taken after him.)
- Polec or Conca?
- Karnesis or Darling (You've answered this one.)
- Lester or Lycett?
- Green or Howe?

 

[POBT]

I wish we had the perfect drafting record as some would seem to expect. Really, it is as simple as picking the better player. You can apparently even do it if the player has already been selected with the previous pick.

Come on - I am all for having a debate on the quality of our drafting but no club stands up to scrutiny on every single draft selection...even more so if you compare a draft selection with every single pick after it. It is almost like we were the only club to overlook good players. Every club overlooked Kieran Jack, many times over. We'd all like him on the list now but it doesn't mean that 15 clubs failed in their drafting.

 

[Yoda_]

Guys, if i may? Sometimes it has something to do with the players around you..

 

[Haggis McHaggis]

Really like the look of young Luke Brown from Norwood. Was amongst the best for SA against the sandgropers, and would add some serious pace to our back line/midfield. Plays a lot like McGrath in that he's not afraid to hold onto the ball and use his pace to break the lines. Beautiful booming kick on him too. Would free Ash or Jed up to move into the middle permanently I reckon. Has the frame to become a seriously solid unit as well. Doing a bit of reading, seems he's only got his first taste of SANFL seniors this year, and has made quite an impression..

With the Redlegs trailing by three points at the 21-minute mark, Brown slotted a goal from outside 50m to give his side the lead. It capped a stellar 18-possession debut that earnt him the SANFL's Powerade Star Search Award for round one.

Although his performance would have been sure to impress AFL recruiters, Brown said he had not thought about his national draft prospects.

"Hopefully I can keep my spot in the League team, play consistent footy and help us make the finals. Whatever happens (after that) will happen really."

That performance won him the 1st nomination of the SANFL season for their version of the rising star.

Luke debuted at League level on Saturday, April 2, against the Magpies. The 18 year old started in a back pocket before having a run on the wing in the second half and later moving in midfield.

Luke kicked Norwood's winning goal with a 50m kick on the run, moments into time on. He had 19 disposals (11 kicks and eight handballs), four tackles and three marks throughout the match.

From Sturt v Norwood, a week later.

The Redlegs dominated the midfield with James Gallagher, Mat Suckling and Luke Brown racking up possession and delivering the footy to Jesse Aish who finished with five goals.

Looking over his stats for the year, a couple of things are obvious. He provides a lot of drive out of defense, and his disposal efficiency is elite. Of 12 games this season, only once has he made more than 1 error by hand & foot. Has had a couple of games with seriously high tackle counts, but a fair few without. Need to get him out of Norwood before Seagull Eagleton can teach him bad habits. Well worth a late 2nd or 3rd rounder I reckon.

 

[Bucking Beads]

I feel the need for Speed and a forward/ruck

 

[charles202]

Thanks for the info Haggis, sounds exactly like the type of player we need moving forward, actaully any chance he is a twin or has siblings cause we need two or three of them.

What are your thoughts on where he would go in the draft?

 

[Quigley]

Forgive my pessimism, but I'm a little doubtful about our recruitment processes, not matter what options might become available.

I give you: Polec v Heppell; Leuenberger v J Selwood; K Tippet v Proud; Banfield v M Robinson; and Karnezis v Darling. Perhaps a bit harsh on Banfield and Karnezis, and even Leuenberger, but I'd argue we'd be a better side with the alternatives.

Heppell major OP injury flags and we decided to go with Polec who maybe had a lesser ceiling but was a safer pick. This is a year after taking a punt on a player with major injury flags who had just done his knee again. The safe pick was the order of the day.

Selwood was a top 3 talent in everyone's book but his knee was stuffed with bone rubbing on bone according to reports. Leuenberger was the best ruck talent to come along in years. I think I had Selwood going in the top 3 or 4 that year but I completely understand why he dropped. He has started his career great but will that knee catch up with him?

Tippet was as very raw and a recent convert to the game. High risk pick that paid off but the Lions had Brown and Bradshaw. Proud was the Qld capt and a big talent with a hard at it in and under game all of which we needed. Proud dropped ala Darling and for probably many of the same reasons. Hard to see us not making the same pick again in those circumstances.

Banfield taken after Robinson. I really really liked Robinson at U18 level and were very disappointed we overlooked him to take Redden. Redden has justifyed the pick.

Darling was a top 5 talent who had major off field flags and we at that time had Proud and Fevola on the books. I for one was more than a little gun shy of knobs which is what he seems from the incidents that he got involved in. With that said his talent was undeniable and I was very disappointed we didn't take him. Karnezis though was never going to start the same way as Darling and I think you need to wait before you right off this contest. Karnezis reminds me a bit of Fyfe and Rocky and if he comes on anything like him I am sure most would be happy enough.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Heppel is a good young player and would have slotted in nicely at the lions but polec has pace which is something we lack in a big big way. I wouldn't change picks if I had the chance.

 

[Balony_pony16]

watched the Vic/vic country game last night...loved teh look of Dom Dyson. hard running midfield who has great composure and smart around goals...loooks like he could play anywhere from HB, mid to HF

 

[POBT]

Good call Haggis. I have seen bits and pieces of the SA v WA game and Brown was one that stood out for me. Worked really well in traffic and gave the ball a decent hoof. Grigg was a standout too.

The small forward Simpson was good in parts. Not seen a lot of talk re: him. I didn't look closely but he didn't seem to have the blistering speed that you expect from a small forward but got to some dangerous places.

 

[Tassie4ever]

If recruiters are going to set a "no knobs" KPI, then they are setting the bar a bit high. Rarely would you put any of the young AFL blokes I've ever talked in the PhD category- just like the majority of the population.

I'd expect the majority would enjoy to the full the adulation [less so in Qld] money, attention and general glamour that goes with senior AFL status, and it would be rare for an individual to not be affected. Sometimes adversely.

In any case, I wonder how Proud snuck through? A mate of his who had known him through school and later told me that while he was a really nice bloke, he could never have just one, and when he had had a skinful he was a nightmare. Perhaps one or two enquiries might have esrtablished this. History I know.

 

[Quigley]

Maybe the off field issues is why Proud fell from being a certain top 10 pick to number 22. At 22 he looked like a huge bargain especially when he was a Qlder to boot. After their experience with him maybe the Lions were once bitten twice shy wrt Darling who is very very similar in regard to his drinking.

The interviews, psch tests etc are very important nower days and the aim is to get guys who are going to handle the adulation, money etc well and perform. Those who do poorly on those are marked down as being a risk. Some are more grounded than others and some become great players but poor teammates. Its certainly no infallable and like I said I was very disappointed we didn't go with Darling. I understood why we passed but at that stage in teh draft I thought his talent was well worth the punt on his character very much in the way we did with Proud in 06.

 

[POBT]

In any case, I wonder how Proud snuck through? A mate of his who had known him through school and later told me that while he was a really nice bloke, he could never have just one, and when he had had a skinful he was a nightmare. Perhaps one or two enquiries might have esrtablished this. History I know.

I don't think it was a case of him sneaking through. Whilst his 2006 was less impressive, he could easily have been taken top 10 and no-one would have blinked an eye. Most people knew that he came with a bit of risk. That he slipped to 22 meant that people took the risks into account and adjusted his draft worth accordingly. The same thing has happened to other "********s" - Fevola being one.

I don't necessarily agree with a no-********s policy because young ********s can grow up to functioning individuals. But we were on the nose as a club in terms of player behaviour at the end of last year - drafting Darling would have heaped more pressure on the club's reputation at a time when we really needed to be squeaky clean.

I mean, can you imagine the press reports if Darling had been out on NYE with Fevola? Darling could have been sipping water and handing out free Bibles - the media wouldn't have cared. Everything Darling did off the field, no matter how inoccuous, would have been judged against the background of Fevola, Proud and Clark's antics. That would have been unfair on the individual, his teammates and the club. Just quietly, I bet West Coast wouldn't have drafted him the year after the Cousins stuff. The timing is important.

 

[POBT]

Just following on from the above (good discussion, by the way), would it be fair to say that it is a feature of Hadley's drafting that he takes no risks on personality? We have drafted a lot of solid citizens in recent years.