Roast 2011 Ladder Prediction (without the circle jerk)

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Should be top four this year. No excuses.

Judd is in top form. Murphs in his sixth season now, Gibbs his fifth. Simmo now a star. Just need the others to step up and it is time they did and we moved towards premiership 17.
 
a lot of people have freo firmly in the top 8.

am i the only one that thinks there is a good chance theyw ill slide considering they have lost a very solid FB in Tarrant(although gained JA..), lost morabito for the season and have barlow coming back from doing a knee?

im not saying they wont make the 8 because they do have a good bunch of young kids i just think they probably needed to be 1 year more mature in order to pick up the slack of the 3 named players above.

freo 7-10

thoughts?

Quite possible actually. Personally I am a big fan of Hill, Barlow and Fyfe, which has probably made me more inclined to put them higher as I'd like to see these guys succeed
 
Going to be an interesting year.

In my opinion..
I can only guarantee 3 sides a top 8 spot (Collingwood, St.Kilda and Geelong).
I can only guarantee 2 sides a bottom 8 spot (Richmond, West Coast)

That leaves 12 sides who I can make a case for either way.

Essendon would have to be very lucky, the Dogs would have to be very stiff.
There's a huge cluster of teams that are quite even.

I'd add Brisbane to that, and GC (much younger team than the other recent AFL start-ups).
 

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a lot of people have freo firmly in the top 8.

am i the only one that thinks there is a good chance theyw ill slide considering they have lost a very solid FB in Tarrant(although gained JA..), lost morabito for the season and have barlow coming back from doing a knee?

im not saying they wont make the 8 because they do have a good bunch of young kids i just think they probably needed to be 1 year more mature in order to pick up the slack of the 3 named players above.

freo 7-10

thoughts?

I think a lot will depend on if they can get past their dependence on Sandilands or if not whether he stays fit. ..

Kind of like Hawthorn and Carlton to an extent, they have a decent core group but don't quite have the depth to cover injuries. .. Especially like us in the KPP department. ..
 
Ill re-post the same thing here i did in the predicitions thread, its pretty long as i was damn bored at the time. Feel free to skip over it :p.

Predictions for 2011 (excuse misspelt player names)

(1-2: Pies and Saints)

Collingwood - Assuming they don't have a premiership hangover ala Hawks 08, natural improvement should see them retain a firm grip on top spot. That being said a lot depends on whether other sides can work out their tactics (again like the Hawks of 08). If this happens, their list will have to improve to remain top.

Saints - In terms of an even list the Saints still rank pretty highly for mine, need to sure up their KPD's to challenge for a flag, although Dawson should improve. Also need to play Kosi deep to be a real threat in the front half. Midfield pace may be an issue against real fast sides, but i think sheer grit and determination will see them near the peak again.

(3-6: Freo, Carlton, Geelong, Western Bulldogs)

Freo - If their kids stand up the sky is the limit for them. With this in mind, if injuries cruel their top end talent (Pav, Sandi, McPharlin) then they will be up against it. A real wildcard team.

Carlton - Will need the likes of Gibbs, Murphy, McLean to make some big strides, but if they do they could be very dangerous. Unlike previous years the deficiencies in the squad are harder to find and depth is starting to develop. Questions remain on KP's both forward and back, but if Henderson, Austin and Bower can remain injury free and continue to develop, the blues should be strong enough to push for top 4.

Cats - Alot will depend on how much their top end talent lose in terms of pace and touch. The loss of Ablett wont be as massive as many think, but age in the legs of Bartel, Chapman, Ling, Kelly and Corey just might. Whether their defense can continue to stand up to the pace of modern footy may also be a concern. For them to have a tilt at another flag, guys like Hawkins, Blake, Lonergan and Varcoe to really stand up and play consistent footy.

Bulldogs - i cant help but feel the Dogs attitude towards the last couple of years at the trade table might hurt them this year. They've shipped in some real talent through the draft, but Wallis and Libba will need a few years to click with the rigors of AFL. I think that for 2011 they will struggle with drop off's in key areas, particularly up forward. Bazza hits the twilight of his career, and theyve lost alot of experience in goalkicking midfields (Eagleton, Aka, etc.) For them to push further up that ladder they will need massive years from Boyd, Cross, Cooney and Lake. Key injuries to any of those players could spell disaster. Keeping Morris and Griffin in good form (and on the park) will also determine where they finish in 2011. For mine the drop from the top end to the bottom end is just too large for a genuine flag push.

(7-10: Melbourne, Sydney, North, Hawks)

Melbourne - An exciting young side who should defiantly improve on last season. More games into Scully, Trengrove, Grimes, and Morton will see some improvement. I really hope that Green, Jamar and Davey can remain at the top of their games for the Dee's seasons sake. Frawley and co have developed a good standard int he back half, its only up front where there are real issues. That being said, if Watts turns into what was thought of him when drafted, with Jurrah and Wonamirri in the same forward half, they will be dangerous.

North - It may not be 2011, but certainly by 2013 they will have an outstanding side. Well coached and always bringing in absolute quality, for mine they've been the best drafting and trading side the last 2 seasons. Their result in 2011 will depend on how much their younger guys step up, guys like Swallow, Adams, Zeibell, Anthony, Hansen and Greenwood are real unknowns in terms of how much they will improve. Structural issues upfront and injuries to key backs will certainly hurt early season, but by seasons end they will show real improvement. The only thing they lack is real Top End talent, with the likes of harvey and Rawlings getting older. May be the Freo of 2010.

Swans - Always an impressive unit, but may take times coming to terms with a new coach and captain. As odd as this sounds, losing two great leaders in Kirk and Roos will take its toll. The development of Hannebry, Jack, Mumford and White will be good for them, but questions remain over how long the Bolton's and Goodes can remain at the level their currently at. A lot will depend on teams abilities to shut down their run off of HB. At times last year it seemed that if sides could shut out Kenelly, Shaw, Mattner and Malceski they could stop the swans.

Hawks - I always seem to overrate the Hawks around this time of year, so im holding back a little with my prediction for them this season. On paper they still have the weapons to tear sides apart, but realistically a slow midfield and underwhelming backline will hurt them. Improvements to key posts such as Stratton, Gilham and Shoenmakers should help sure this up, but i cant see them matching it consistently with much faster precision football sides.

This is where i feel the league really drops off. Potential any of the teams above could play finals, and all bar perhaps melbourne and north would be confident in winning finals, but i cant see any of the teams below getting remotely close.

(11 - 13: Tigers, Bombers, Adelaide)
Richmond: Improvments to young guys such as Cotchin, Martin, Graham, Post and Vickery will probably determine their finishing position. No doubt an injury free Foley and a firing Newman and Delidio will lead them to winning games, but a full team effort from their younger players will lead to consistency. Grigg and Houli will inject some larger bodies into the middle, but both have questions over their disposal and application. Their front half seems a bit of a puzzle at the moment, with JR the only real target, and the puzzling suggestion to a move to half forward. They should win more games than last year, but again it may be a year of a lack of performance across the board, as many young teams would know all too well.

Essendon: The bombers meteoric rise to the top may be coming, but 2011 isnt it. Their spine is looking great for the future, but it seems more a 2012/3 break out than a 2011 one. And in the middle their are real question marks (as with previous years) as to who will help Jobe Watson. they have their battlers, Stanton is one who i always feel for as he lacks consistency, but all their other great hopes are still very young and raw. I dont doubt guys like Melksham and Hardingham, and certainly Heppell will see their midfield take some strides, but its not an engine room that will break games at this stage. As the past couple of seasons have shown, and i believe the next one will follow suit, too much will be left to too few.

Adelaide: Their an interesting team, i certainly dont see a massive lack of quality, but they will take time develop no doubt. The idea of Otten and Davis in the same backline is imposing, but theyre both still young and will be monstered at times. Up front they seem menacing but it has to be noted that Walker, Tippett and Proplesia all have consistency concerns (although Porp's are more injury related than anything). They just seem like an overly tall and slow side across the park. Its not that theyre not talented but theyre dreaming if they think they can carry Jacobs, Tippett Rutten and Maric in the same side and not be exposed. Thier midfield depth is also a problem. Hopefully Sloan and Douglas and Martin can all continue to build on solid platforms theyve built for themselves, but in terms of 2011 they wont be able to match the big guns.

(14-15: Gold Coast, West Coast)
Gold Coast: Obviously the toughest team to judge. They're finish will depend on how well they gel as a unit. They have some good top end talent, and some real good kids who will make waves from day 1 (not just Swallow, i really like the look of Dixon) but they cant realistically expect Ablett, some solid B grades like Harbrow and Brown, and a bunch of kids to be a major first year threat.

West Coast: Really need some improvement out of the 3-4 year group, it began towards the end of last year and it needs to continue now. They have the prototype players to make an impact, if they can get them all playing good football then the eagles will win games. Key posts down back still look like a struggle, and a lack of polished ball users is what has consistently let them down, but these things can and should improve. The only way is up for the Eagles.

(16-17: Port and Brisbane)
Port Adelaide: I can only look at Port's supposed best 22 and wonder how any port fan can get excited for the season ahead. Their key backs are solid, infact i would think by the time the years out Carlisle and Chaplin will be considered one of the better FB CHB combo's going around, but everywhere else theyre treading wafer thin. They have one ruckman in Borgan who at his best is begining to struggle, due to his age and injuries. All his underlings are recently untried. Their fans will preach that Trangrove will be the saviour but he cant play Ruck, Key Back and Key Forward all at once. Their midfield lacks depth with the Cornes' on the outer due to age, and Boak is their only real star, Cassissi is a good footballer, but he doesnt really break games as they need him to. Their forward line is a true rabble. Grey is a quality player, but will have to move to the middle to cover a lack of depth, leaving no real targets up their. Shultz is coming off of a good year but isn't exaclty a key forward in his own right. Westhoff is a plodder, and Hitchcock and Stewart need to show some consistency before they can carry the their share of the goalkicking. Motlop is an unknown, but i highly doubt he will shoot back to his 08/9 form. It will be a tough year for the power, i pnly hope the fans see it through and they can get their crowds up, an empty AAMI stadium is a depressing sight.

Brisbane: Sometimes im not sure if Voss knows what he's doing at the helm of the Lions. Theyre big names are a year older, their up and comers have all deserted them, and their is a massive gap between their 1st and 22nd picked players, far too big for an AFL side. Im not a nay sayer on some of voss recruiting as others are i think all of Staker, Buchanan and Maguire have been solid performers on their days, but who they've lost is what's really going to hurt them. Crouch under your desk and cover your heads Lions fans, this years going to be a rough one.
 
For what it's worth:

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Carlton
Bulldogs
St Kilda
North
Geelong
Port
------
Fremantle
Adelaide
Melbourne
Richmond
Essendon
Sydney
West Coast
Gold Coast
Brisbane

Suspect Fremantle will be higher and Hawthorn lower, but I'll stick with the above.
 
1st Collingwood-pretty much assured back to back flags with that list and gameplan

2nd Saints-still up their if there veterens perform

3rd Fremantle-to good at home and with Barlow back, watch out

4th Hawthorn-they have Franklin,Rioli and Roughead deep for the whole year and this is where they will end up, dark horse

5th Western Bulldogs-tried and tested, around here should be right

6th Carlton-must win a home final to call the season a pass, good young list with a star studded midfield

7th Port Adelaide-will stun a couple of sides with back to basics footy under Primus, underated

8th Geelong-scrape in but won't realistically challenge, not just because of Ablett leaving but cos of age, far to many in best 22 over 29

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
9th North Melbourne-unlucky to miss out after poor start to year cos of list decimated by injury, watch out in 2012

10th Melbourne-should finish higher but the other teams have them covered at this point, will cause upsets and geniune threat in 2012

11th Adelaide-like Melbourne should finish higher but others are simply better

12th Richmond-keeps playing the kids with a some of good results and geniune signs of improvement (stop the blowouts please)

13th Gold Coast-they'll be fine with that list, will hand out a thrashing towards the end of the year that makes opposition coaches shiver

14th West Coast-keeps the faith in Woosha, and pays for it

15th Sydney-kinda forgot them (woops), put them 7th and push everyone down a spot

16th Essendon-welcome to coaching James Hird

17th Brisbane-least it's sunny in Queensland
 
Fremantle
Collingwood
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Carlton
Geelong
Hawthorn
Melbourne
----------
Sydney
North Melbourne
Adelaide
Richmond
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Essendon
Brisbane
Gold Coast

Freo are gonna kick it and the Cats will slide along with the swans. Tigers and Dees to keep improving, the rest pretty similar..
 
Ill re-post the same thing here i did in the predicitions thread, its pretty long as i was damn bored at the time. Feel free to skip over it :p.

Thanks Supish. .. I read that on the ladder thread, I enjoy reading that thread but couldn't cast pearls before swine like you did. .. I was halfway through reading your summary of each team and thought I was reading something out of Inside Sport. .. Was a smooth read, cheers for the contribution. ..

BTW I am a huge fan of the true sports journalism that is Inside Sport, in case it wasn't clear. ..
 
1st: Collingwood
2nd: St Kilda
3rd: Carlton
4th: Fremantle
5th: Geelong
6th: Bulldogs
7th: Melbourne
8th: Hawthorn
--------------
9th: North Melbourne
10th: Syndey
11th: Adelaide
12th: Port
13th: Essendon
14th: Richmond
15th: Gold Coast
16th: West Coast
17th: Brisbane Lions

:thumbsu:
 
Thanks Supish. .. I read that on the ladder thread, I enjoy reading that thread but couldn't cast pearls before swine like you did. .. I was halfway through reading your summary of each team and thought I was reading something out of Inside Sport. .. Was a smooth read, cheers for the contribution. ..

BTW I am a huge fan of the true sports journalism that is Inside Sport, in case it wasn't clear. ..

Cheers man, wanted to be a sports journo in my earlier days :p
 

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I dont think that we will make 3rd and if we do, it might just be on a slim percentage margin.

We will end up somewhere in the 4th - 6th region.

If we finish there and win a final, it's a good season... win 2 finals and it is a brilliant year. Lose the final and we are in for a new coach.
 
  1. Collingwood
  2. Hawthorn (either Hawks or Doggies to take their shot)
  3. Western Bulldogs
  4. St Kilda
  5. Geelong
  6. Carlton
  7. North Melbourne (North to rise)
  8. Fremantle
  9. Adelaide
  10. Essendon
  11. Melbourne
  12. West Coast Eagles
  13. Richmond
  14. Sydney Swans
  15. Port Adelaide
  16. Brisbane Lions
  17. Gold Coast (three horse race with the Lions/Port)
 
1. Collingwood
2. St Kilda
3. Hawthron
4. Westren Bulldogs
5. Geelong
6. Carlton
7. Sydney
8. Fremantle

9. Adelaide
10. North Melbourne
11. Port Adelaide
12. Melbourne
13. Richmond
14. Essendon
15. West Coast
16. Gold Coast
17. Brisbane
 
1 Collingwood
2 Saints
3 Geelong
4 Fremantle
5 Carlton
6 Hawthorn
7 North
8 Adelaide

9 Bulldogs
10 Melbourne
11 Sydney
12 Port
13 Essendon
14 Richmond
15 West Coast
16 Lions
17 Gold Coast

Team / Played / Wins / Losses / Draw / Points
1 Collingwood 22 18 4 0 72
2 Saints 22 17 5 0 68
3 Geelong 22 14 7 1 58
4 Adelaide 22 14 8 0 56
5 Carlton 22 14 8 0 56
6 Sydney 22 13 8 1 54
7 Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 52
8 Fremantle 22 12 10 0 48

9 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 48
10 Melbourne 22 11 11 0 44
11 North 22 10 12 0 40
12 West Coast 22 8 14 0 32
13 Port 22 7 15 0 28
14 Lions 22 7 15 0 28
15 Richmond 22 6 16 0 24
16 Essendon 22 5 17 0 20
17 Gold Coast 22 5 17 0 20

I tried to be harsh on Carlton, went back and change wins to losses. .. North not so good, maybe I was influenced by their fans. .. Bulldogs a bit better, still think they'll struggle. .. Hawks to have a slow start. .. Adelaide surprised me but they have a good draw. ..
 
God I hope collingwood do a hawthorn and fall out of the 8. Even on the Carlton board they're 1st in just about everyone's predictions.
There is very little in common with the 2008 Hawthorn team and the 2010 Collingwood team. Not only was Collingwood better, but the main reason that Hawthorn slid down the ladder is because the 2008 Grand Final was the last games that Shane Crawford, Trent Croad and Robert Campbell played, and then Stuart Dew retired not long after. They still haven't been able to replace those players, whilst Collingwood hasn't lost any premiership players, and Tarrant and Krakouer should strengthen the team even more.

Also, Alastair Clarkson did not alter their game plan at all, and the loss of those players effected the game plan that worked so well. Instead he stood still, which allowed other teams to pass them. Michael Malthouse won't stand still though because he knows it's his last season and that he won't get another chance, so I'm sure he will do everything he can to stay ahead of the rest again. It's one thing for Hawthorn to make that mistake, but it's another thing for other clubs to not learn from the mistake they made.
 
There is very little in common with the 2008 Hawthorn team and the 2010 Collingwood team. Not only was Collingwood better, but the main reason that Hawthorn slid down the ladder is because the 2008 Grand Final was the last games that Shane Crawford, Trent Croad and Robert Campbell played, and then Stuart Dew retired not long after. They still haven't been able to replace those players, whilst Collingwood hasn't lost any premiership players, and Tarrant and Krakouer should strengthen the team even more.

Also, Alastair Clarkson did not alter their game plan at all, and the loss of those players effected the game plan that worked so well. Instead he stood still, which allowed other teams to pass them. Michael Malthouse won't stand still though because he knows it's his last season and that he won't get another chance, so I'm sure he will do everything he can to stay ahead of the rest again. It's one thing for Hawthorn to make that mistake, but it's another thing for other clubs to not learn from the mistake they made.

Hope springs eternal in the human breast



















Breast...sfellow
 
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There is very little in common with the 2008 Hawthorn team and the 2010 Collingwood team. Not only was Collingwood better, but the main reason that Hawthorn slid down the ladder is because the 2008 Grand Final was the last games that Shane Crawford, Trent Croad and Robert Campbell played, and then Stuart Dew retired not long after. They still haven't been able to replace those players, whilst Collingwood hasn't lost any premiership players, and Tarrant and Krakouer should strengthen the team even more.

Also, Alastair Clarkson did not alter their game plan at all, and the loss of those players effected the game plan that worked so well. Instead he stood still, which allowed other teams to pass them. Michael Malthouse won't stand still though because he knows it's his last season and that he won't get another chance, so I'm sure he will do everything he can to stay ahead of the rest again. It's one thing for Hawthorn to make that mistake, but it's another thing for other clubs to not learn from the mistake they made.

Oh my god... did someone just drop their guts?
 
Carlton 4 - 6 but will be under extreme pressure from Melbourne, Swans, North, Adelaide, Hawks, Bulldogs.
 

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