2013 Draft Discussion

[POBT]

Our best bet is a gameplan to counter these deficiencies.

Yep. That's why I didn't oppose us trading for a limited footballer like Martin because he fits a need in a structure that simply needs a contest up forward. Sure, if we could have got a Franklin, Cloke or Roughead, we would prefer that but Martin is OK for a structure that relies more on getting and keeping the ball forward than it does on power forwards taking strong grabs. A few comments from Voss about Browny suggests that he is more looking for the contest than the scoreboard impact.

But if we are projecting out 5 years for KP forwards, we still need another one IMO and preferably this year or next. A KP forward drafted in 2013 will enter his 6th year of footy in 2019. Daniel Rich will be 29 that year - still young enough (hopefully) to play an important role in a premiership push. That 2019-21 period will be the last chance of our 2008 and probably 2010 cohort to win a flag. A 24yo key forward is probably entering the prime of his career at that point. It is scary to think that we have to draft for that far ahead but that's the reality, as proven by your posts.

So yeah, while I would love to get a Tom Boyd this year, it isn't because I think he will provide an instant solution to our forward troubles in 2014 but rather because he will hopefully reach his peak while our 3rd-5th year players are still in their prime.

 

[POBT]

Going even further I'd imagine that if you did the analysis it would probably show that while you can get good ones later in the draft the hit rate would be much much lower. People have a tendency to focus on the ones that did make it and ignore the multitude that didn't (a similar problem exists when people analyse sydneys trading and hail it as a masterstroke, there's plenty of average players and fails on their trade list, but the fact they have had a number of very good successes papers over those.).

Yes but I guess the cost is relatively low and is spread out over a number of years, assuming it takes you a couple of tries to get the right bloke. Adelaide is a funny sort of example - in 2010, they had Tippett, Maric and Griffin on their list. All 3 are gone and are now key players at other clubs (assuming Tippett lives up to his pay packet) and yet the rookie promotion they grabbed from Carlton for a couple of average draft picks gave them an armchair ride in the ruck last year. I guess they would ask themselves if it was worth persevering with those young rucks in 2010 when they could have just picked up someone else's surplus ruck who was more ready to go.

But I agree with your general point and, moreover, I don't agree with the current attitude of ignoring highly regarded rucks. Let's hope Longer proves the clubs wrong and shows that there is no harm in drafting a quality ruckman early.

 

[cotter101]

Does anyone know how Khan Haretaku is going? He is a lump of a lad and could be worth a rookie spot.

Don't think he has even been playing.

 

[Bert Man]

Don't think he has even been playing.

That's a shame, I was hoping we could give him a rookie spot.

 

[cotter101]

That's a shame, I was hoping we could give him a rookie spot.

If he has been playing, he has been quite unnoticeable.

 

[13Beast]

Yep. That's why I didn't oppose us trading for a limited footballer like Martin because he fits a need in a structure that simply needs a contest up forward. Sure, if we could have got a Franklin, Cloke or Roughead, we would prefer that but Martin is OK for a structure that relies more on getting and keeping the ball forward than it does on power forwards taking strong grabs. A few comments from Voss about Browny suggests that he is more looking for the contest than the scoreboard impact.

But if we are projecting out 5 years for KP forwards, we still need another one IMO and preferably this year or next. A KP forward drafted in 2013 will enter his 6th year of footy in 2019. Daniel Rich will be 29 that year - still young enough (hopefully) to play an important role in a premiership push. That 2019-21 period will be the last chance of our 2008 and probably 2010 cohort to win a flag. A 24yo key forward is probably entering the prime of his career at that point. It is scary to think that we have to draft for that far ahead but that's the reality, as proven by your posts.

So yeah, while I would love to get a Tom Boyd this year, it isn't because I think he will provide an instant solution to our forward troubles in 2014 but rather because he will hopefully reach his peak while our 3rd-5th year players are still in their prime.

If that becomes the mission/operation/modus operandi this coming trade/draft period, and assuming the Lions get #5 or thereabouts (somebody on here mentioned #5 as being likely - sorry can't source that), that pick alone will put us out of the running for Boyd clearly, but which players (or myriad of other picks) would be attractive enough that they could be packaged in with our high pick to move up the draft order and secure a high enough pick (1, 2 or 3) to snag Boyd?

Hogan and Patton look like beasts. Dear god, I hope we don't miss out AGAIN.

All else fails, Moloney and Martin could probably be summoned to Voss' office for a quick brief and to learn a few pointers on how their former club went about tanking for good draft picks

 

[POBT]

If that becomes the mission/operation/modus operandi this coming trade/draft period, and assuming the Lions get #5 or thereabouts (somebody on here mentioned #5 as being likely - sorry can't source that), that pick alone will put us out of the running for Boyd clearly, but which players (or myriad of other picks) would be attractive enough that they could be packaged in with our high pick to move up the draft order and secure a high enough pick (1, 2 or 3) to snag Boyd?

I can't see us getting a deal done with GWS. We can't give up what they would want (presumably Leuenberger, maybe Merrett) and they will presumably not be interested in downgrading picks without a really good Lions player involved.

Melbourne is going to be a hard sell to any player. Despite what happens on BigFooty, the player has to be somewhat interested for a trade to occur. Having said that, they are possibly more interested in draft picks than GWS - we might be able to engineer a 3 way trade or give them a 2nd rounder for a slight upgrade...maybe.

The Bulldogs have just as dire need for a tall forward as us. I don't see them trading to give us first dibs on Boyd.

I'd put Gold Coast in the same basket as GWS except that the higher they finish, the less likely their first pick will do us any good. Same with any other club that finishes lower than us but not in the bottom 3.

Finally, we are assuming that the draft pecking order will remain static - Boyd could well move up or down the draft rankings over the next 6 months or another tall option could come onto our radars.

 

[The Lion Price]

I think young tall forwards are often put under unfair pressure to perform due to comparisons to greats of the game. Whenever a big, young, performing tall comes along they are earmarked as the next Carey, Brown, Riewoldt etc. I dont know why, but tall forwards are often seen as players that will become the key, be all and end all superstar of their teams and are labelled failures if they are just seen as a role player or anything worse. Supporters have to recognise that players like Vickery, Lynch, Day and Cordy take time to develop and when they do they will not necessarily be superstars. But, they are all likely to be good, solid players who are consistent contributors to their team. A player like Patton MAY end up being one of the competitions best players and in the status of the players i mentioned above but they really are very rare talents that should be considered as diamonds in the rough rather than the norm.

 

[Balony_pony16]

I can't see us getting a deal done with GWS. We can't give up what they would want (presumably Leuenberger, maybe Merrett) and they will presumably not be interested in downgrading picks without a really good Lions player involved.

Melbourne is going to be a hard sell to any player. Despite what happens on BigFooty, the player has to be somewhat interested for a trade to occur. Having said that, they are possibly more interested in draft picks than GWS - we might be able to engineer a 3 way trade or give them a 2nd rounder for a slight upgrade...maybe.

The Bulldogs have just as dire need for a tall forward as us. I don't see them trading to give us first dibs on Boyd.

I'd put Gold Coast in the same basket as GWS except that the higher they finish, the less likely their first pick will do us any good. Same with any other club that finishes lower than us but not in the bottom 3.

Finally, we are assuming that the draft pecking order will remain static - Boyd could well move up or down the draft rankings over the next 6 months or another tall option could come onto our radars.

agree...in recent times Elton and darling dropped from high top 10 to 2nd rd range

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I'm more and more thinking that we should look to the state leagues for a KPF. Really don't think that Pods was a one off. There'd have to be at least four or five half decent options out there that we could get quite cheap, and I reckon it's a lower risk situation in some ways than taking a tall skinny 18 year old.

Also, if there are players kicking bags in the SANFL, VFL or WAFL, you'd have to assume they'd do the same in the NEAFL due to the step down in quality, and our current developing key forwards in the NEAFL aren't really doing that as regularly as they should be.

I also think taking a mature aged KPF really helps us with the age profile of our list. We could grab a guy entering his prime at 23 or 24 for nothing.

I get that there are downsides, but I think it's my current preferred option in terms of looking for a KPF.

 

[lionshine]

I'm more and more thinking that we should look to the state leagues for a KPF. Really don't think that Pods was a one off. There'd have to be at least four or five half decent options out there that we could get quite cheap, and I reckon it's a lower risk situation in some ways than taking a tall skinny 18 year old.

Also, if there are players kicking bags in the SANFL, VFL or WAFL, you'd have to assume they'd do the same in the NEAFL due to the step down in quality, and our current developing key forwards in the NEAFL aren't really doing that as regularly as they should be.

I also think taking a mature aged KPF really helps us with the age profile of our list. We could grab a guy entering his prime at 23 or 24 for nothing.

I get that there are downsides, but I think it's my current preferred option in terms of looking for a KPF.

I agree 100%. I would like the club to start to look at selecting a few more mature ager's. The success rate is quite high. Barlow, Pods, Zorko ect. ect.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I agree 100%. I would like the club to start to look at selecting a few more mature ager's. The success rate is quite high. Barlow, Pods, Zorko ect. ect.

I think the KPF's at state level could be more decent than given credit for too. Many people say it's easy to play on the weaker defenders, but the step up to AFL from those three comps I mentioned isn't completely drastic to be honest.

I think many key forwards don't develop into something decent until their early twenties. Some just don't have a body nearly ready to show what they can do at 18. And some others are moved from playing as a defender in their side and turn out to be very good forwards.

I'm not saying it's the golden solution, but I am surprised how many potential-filled state level KPF's tend to get ignored while many slim, struggling KPF's at AFL level continue to be given contract extensions on the hope of what they've shown in their junior days.

Would be good to get a comprehensive list of all the potential AFL key forwards out there currently playing at state level. Might try and do some research and put one together if I have a minute over the next few days.

 

[cotter101]

I think the KPF's at state level could be more decent than given credit for too. Many people say it's easy to play on the weaker defenders, but the step up to AFL from those three comps I mentioned isn't completely drastic to be honest.

I think many key forwards don't develop into something decent until their early twenties. Some just don't have a body nearly ready to show what they can do at 18. And some others are moved from playing as a defender in their side and turn out to be very good forwards.

I'm not saying it's the golden solution, but I am surprised how many potential-filled state level KPF's tend to get ignored while many slim, struggling KPF's at AFL level continue to be given contract extensions on the hope of what they've shown in their junior days.

Would be good to get a comprehensive list of all the potential AFL key forwards out there currently playing at state level. Might try and do some research and put one together if I have a minute over the next few days.

Off the top of my head, I rate Lourey and Hardy pretty highly and think they would make an reasonable impact on many lists. Would be happy to see them at the Lions.

 

[GrandBlue]

I'm more and more thinking that we should look to the state leagues for a KPF. Really don't think that Pods was a one off. There'd have to be at least four or five half decent options out there that we could get quite cheap, and I reckon it's a lower risk situation in some ways than taking a tall skinny 18 year old.

Also, if there are players kicking bags in the SANFL, VFL or WAFL, you'd have to assume they'd do the same in the NEAFL due to the step down in quality, and our current developing key forwards in the NEAFL aren't really doing that as regularly as they should be.

I also think taking a mature aged KPF really helps us with the age profile of our list. We could grab a guy entering his prime at 23 or 24 for nothing.

I get that there are downsides, but I think it's my current preferred option in terms of looking for a KPF.

See my post on the previous page.

[edit] copypasted:
Think it might be time for your mob to give Justin Hardy a go. Big bodied, mature aged power forward who won the SANFL Equivalent of the Coleman Medal:

 

[PattyKwasagun]

See my post on the previous page.

[edit] copypasted:
Think it might be time for your mob to give Justin Hardy a go. Big bodied, mature aged power forward who won the SANFL Equivalent of the Coleman Medal

Seems he's also one who only recently made the move up forward and hasn't missed a beat since he did so. I'd definitely be interested, but I imagine we wouldn't be the only club who'd have a look.

 

[Quigley]

I know a few in the industry were a bit surprised someone didn't take a punt on hardy.

 

[pulsade]

I still think it is the midfield where we need the most help. If we can get a consistent number of high entries into forward 50 I think that will be more helpful than continually drafting a KPF. For me when we get blown out the players coming in and out of the side are forwards and backs but it is the midfield that gets killed. I also think there is lower risk drafting midfielders high. If they don't become stars they can still be solid role players in other parts of the ground.

 

[cotter101]

I still think it is the midfield where we need the most help. If we can get a consistent number of high entries into forward 50 I think that will be more helpful than continually drafting a KPF. For me when we get blown out the players coming in and out of the side are forwards and backs but it is the midfield that gets killed. I also think there is lower risk drafting midfielders high. If they don't become stars they can still be solid role players in other parts of the ground.

Even when we do get reasonable forward 50 entries, we just don't take enough marks in our forward 50.

 

[pulsade]

Even when we do get reasonable forward 50 entries, we just don't take enough marks in our forward 50.

But how many contested marks do even the best forwards take? I know Cloke and Tippett average quite a few contested marks but most forwards only average around 2 per game and they aren't necessarily always in the forward 50. Which I think again comes back to our midfield, not hitting our forwards on the chest (or maybe the forwards aren't leading properly and it is a coaching thing.) I think the best teams always have good midfields rather than KPFs and when teams are putting 6+ consecutive goals in the first quarter on us there isn't much the forwards can do.

 

[jackess]

I know a few in the industry were a bit surprised someone didn't take a punt on hardy.

I would have though his state screening results wouldn't have been overly impressive.

Has done a fair bit more at SANFL level than Sam Rowe though and he's looked OK at AFL level.

 

[cotter101]

I'd be surprised if anyone else has heard about him, but there's a young bloke by the name of Ryley Norris playing for the Murray Bushrangers. Brother of Brayden Norris who played a couple of games for North Melbourne.

He is from around where I live. I might be biased, but the kid has potential. At this stage he is more of a rookie prospect. Great runner and good at getting into space. Has similar traits to what his brother has but he is probably a fair bit better all round.

From what I've seen of him this year, he has been playing mostly midfield. The kid needs to stay up forward.

 

[SizeMatters]

From State level to AFL is really not that different as posters above have pointed out. More running and structures in the AFL but the delivery and team members putting on blocks etc are much improved. I found that out personally when I played at a club in a lower division as a CHF I was averaging 2 goals a game. I changed clubs and played in the top division and the delivery was just so much better, and I was kicking 5 goals a week. So taking a gamble on a forward at state level is definitely not as bad an idea than taking a talented youngster through the draft.

 

[captainrich]

This is very definitely too early for this however its been bugging me for the last couple of weeks so thought I'd get this out there, sorry if someone else already has a thread on this. We need to have 3 delistings for the draft but I'm sure with the success of moloney we may try and fix another problem area through free agency too, whether it be a midfielder to fix our issues with spread, a forward etc

At the moment I think Jesse O'Brien will most likely be out, Cornelius too, and then it starts becoming a bit harder and shows some of depth we are developing, since last year it was really obvious who was going and who was staying. Mckeever, Harwood (though I'd hate for him to go) are possibilties, Wearden maybe delisted and pushed onto the rookie list. A rookie like Wrigley could be delisted this year too, what is everyone else's thoughts. thanks

 

[Dylan12]

Whilst not the discussion you are looking for, trawl through the responses to question 17 of the Big Footy Quiz.

Opinions may have already changed, but you should get a general idea from that.

 

[PTizzle]

Probably a little early mate - fair call you'd like to hear some opinions, but I doubt you'll get too many interesting indicators just now. After the bye there might be some better info, especially from ressies watchers after players have had a good run.

Like Dylan12 said, read the answers to question 17 for a general overview, the rest, imo, is totally up in the air to speculate beyond that for another month at least.