2013 Non-Crows AFL Discussion

[FR0GGY]

Ablett's just ridiculous.

Hope the Bombers have a shit year.

What'd he do?

 

[Vooligan]

What'd he do?

Won it on the siren apparently.

 

[GROTTO]

Won it on the siren apparently.

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-02-17/gc-v-ess-watch-the-last-two-minutes

 

[Glenno23]

What'd he do?

Kicked it from the boundary with about 4 seconds left from 55 out with the scores tie and won them the game

 

[GROTTO]

What'd he do?

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-02-17/gc-v-ess-watch-the-last-two-minutes

 

[NikkiNoo]

Ablett's just ridiculous.

Hope the Bombers have a shit year.

Considering that he spent most of the match not really trying hard, he is an amazing player.

Essendon really were trying to win too.

I still think that Prestia is the better and more important player than O'Meara for the Suns.

 

[FR0GGY]

Omera has some guns

 

[Skippy231]

What a cracker of a game, GC will win plenty this year Ablett has the ability to will them over the line

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

What a cracker of a game, GC will win plenty this year Ablett has the ability to will them over the line

They are a smokey to make the final-8 if they get a decent run with injuries v other competing clubs.

 

[Vader]

They are a smokey to make the final-8 if they get a decent run with injuries v other competing clubs.

And they should definitely make the finals next year, even if they don't make them this year. For the record, I'd suggest that they're at worst a 50-50 chance of making the finals in 2014, hardly "smokeys".

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

And they should definitely make the finals next year, even if they don't make them this year. For the record, I'd suggest that they're at worst a 50-50 chance of making the finals in 2014, hardly "smokeys".

Bumpkin!

Gold Coast are currently the 13th favourite team for most betting agencies to make the finals - paying around $4 for making the top-8.

That is not 50-50, that is a smokey in anyone's language .

Not hard to do some research

PS. Adelaide are currently rated as the 9th favourite team to make the top-8, so we are minor outsiders.

 

[Vader]

I don't overly care what the betting agencies have to say, especially at this time of the year. A lot of money is put down by the people betting on their own club. GC have a relatively small supporter base, so they probably have less money backing them at this point in time.

I look at the way they've progressed every year since their admission to the competition.
2011 - 16th out of 17, 3 wins
2012 - 17th out of 18, 3 wins
2013 - 14th out of 18, 7 wins

They now have 7 of their youngsters with 50+ games and another 5 with 40+, on top of the experienced players they've signed since their formation. Their days as easy beats are over. Normally players begin to peak once they hit the magical 100 game milestone. Most of GC's list is made up of highly talented 1st round draft picks - I'm betting that they'll start to peak a year or two earlier than the norm.

I would be very surprised if they were to finish below 10th this year. I'd be equally surprised if they were to finish 6th or better. Somewhere in the 7-10 range is my best estimate - and that's a 50-50 bet on the finals.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I don't overly care what the betting agencies have to say, especially at this time of the year. A lot of money is put down by the people betting on their own club. GC have a relatively small supporter base, so they probably have less money backing them at this point in time.

I look at the way they've progressed every year since their admission to the competition.
2011 - 16th out of 17, 3 wins
2012 - 17th out of 18, 3 wins
2013 - 14th out of 18, 7 wins

They now have 7 of their youngsters with 50+ games and another 5 with 40+, on top of the experienced players they've signed since their formation. Their days as easy beats are over. Normally players begin to peak once they hit the magical 100 game milestone. Most of GC's list is made up of highly talented 1st round draft picks - I'm betting that they'll start to peak a year or two earlier than the norm.

I would be very surprised if they were to finish below 10th this year. I'd be equally surprised if they were to finish 6th or better. Somewhere in the 7-10 range is my best estimate - and that's a 50-50 bet on the finals.

I'm not going to argue that GC are poised to make an assault on the top-8 ... but they are still a smokey in betting terms.

The market dictates usually on a fair basis. If we go by your logic that the market is determined by the clubs with the most supporters, Collingwood would be favourites every year & AFC would be always in the top-8. However, most supporters are not dumb enough to throw $'s away!

 

[Vader]

I'm not going to argue that GC are poised to make an assault on the top-8 ... but they are still a smokey in betting terms.

The market dictates usually on a fair basis. If we go by your logic that the market is determined by the clubs with the most supporters, Collingwood would be favourites every year & AFC would be always in the top-8. However, most supporters are not dumb enough to throw $'s away!

Betting markets are determined by where the money goes. Smart people bet using their brains. Far too many people be using their hearts.

 

[GROTTO]

Betting markets are determined by where the money goes. Smart people bet using their brains. Far too many people be using their hearts.

Well actually no. The betting markets are set up initially according to statistical probabilities. It is when the market opens and money comes in that the betting markets are determined by where the money is going.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Betting markets are determined by where the money goes. Smart people bet using their brains. Far too many people be using their hearts.

Given the Pies have by far the most supporters & I wouldn't say that they have the highest average IQ, why are they not then flag-favourites every year under the Vader-betting odds theory?

 

[GROTTO]

Given the Pies have by far the most supporters & I wouldn't say that they have the highest average IQ, why are they not then flag-favourites every year under the Vader-betting odds theory?

LOL.

With that said I made a lot of money backing the Cats in the GF they played a few years back Cats blew out to $2.10, a lot of punters told me if your backing the Cats to wait for a few days for the odds to shift.

Both opened in the markets at $1.90 apiece

 

[Vader]

Given the Pies have by far the most supporters & I wouldn't say that they have the highest average IQ, why are they not then flag-favourites every year under the Vader-betting odds theory?

They're almost always at shorter odds than their position on the ladder would validate.

 

[GROTTO]

They're almost always at shorter odds than their position on the ladder would validate.

Not when just before the market opens!

You do realise that the last few years they have made GFs and PFs. With last year being an aberration in where they finished up at.

They were short odds to beat Port in the final, however very few punters believed that Port would win.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

They're almost always at shorter odds than their position on the ladder would validate.

So by your theory, Adelaide are absolutely no chance to make the finals, as 1 of the most supported teams ... yet only ranked 9th to make the finals ... would mean their "true" ladder position is much lower?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

They're almost always at shorter odds than their position on the ladder would validate.

Do you think having the Pies 6th favourite to make the finals is unrealistic?

Personally I think it about right.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Vader, FYI the current betting for the top-8, across 5 betting agencies averages the following order:
1. Hawks
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Geelong
5. North Melbourne
6. Collingwood
7. Richmond
8. West Coast
9. Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. Gold Coast
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. St Kilda
18. GWS

Personally I would have North & West Coast a little lower & Essendon a little higher, but looks around the mark to me.

Doesn't seem to be dictated by the highest following clubs (eg. Essendon have far more supporters than North).

 

[cmndstab]

As much as Gold Coast are set to improve, I'd say most of the teams in the top 8 last year look set to stay there, and there are several teams that missed out that are a reasonable chance of moving up as well. I would put the odds of GC making the top 8 as significantly lower than 50-50.

Also Vader, as much as you're correct that betting odds are determined at some level by where the money goes, the overwhelming factor in setting the odds is market research into the most likely outcomes. If GD were as far below the odds as you are suggesting, a whole bunch of money would be placed on them and it would even up very quickly.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Vader, FYI the current betting for the top-8, across 5 betting agencies averages the following order:
1. Hawks
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Geelong
5. North Melbourne
6. Collingwood
7. Richmond
8. West Coast
9. Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. Gold Coast
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. St Kilda
18. GWS

Personally I would have North & West Coast a little lower & Essendon a little higher, but looks around the mark to me.

Doesn't seem to be dictated by the highest following clubs (eg. Essendon have far more supporters than North).

Just looking at this table I reckon the top 5 teams are about right and the bottom 5 teams are on the money. That leaves 8 teams contesting for 3 positions. Of those 8 teams I reckon the Crows will perform better than Collingwood, Richmond, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Essendon and the Suns but equal with Carlton. That makes us about equal 6th/7th. Being a little pessimistic I still feel we will play if the finals this year and that 2015 could be ours.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Just looking at this table I reckon the top 5 teams are about right and the bottom 5 teams are on the money. That leaves 8 teams contesting for 3 positions. Of those 8 teams I reckon the Crows will perform better than Collingwood, Richmond, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Essendon and the Suns but equal with Carlton. That makes us about equal 6th/7th. Being a little pessimistic I still feel we will play if the finals this year and that 2015 could be ours.

IMO it is even more even than that.

Top-3 are clearly ahead of the rest & I think all but the bottom-5 fighting for the remaining 5 spots.

Very even in the mid-pack & it will come down to injuries & form as to who makes & who misses.