2014 Draft Discussion

[captainrich]

Are you speculating?

You're SO welcome for the information. I'll remember not to come back to this board in future with anything that may be of interest to you. Good riddance.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

There is a natural attraction when a father/son selection is available but they need to be assessed on their merit not their genes. If we were to get Roos for a fourth round or later pick maybe fair enough but based on the reviews and having seen him live (admittedly just once) my impression is that he gets the ball a fair bit and is rated pretty highly at junior level because of it but has pretty average disposal and is not fast or overly skilful. If his name was Smith or Jones would we even be interested?

 

[SizeMatters]

I know that there's been a conversation about how McStay looks and plays more like a third tall. But if we remember that he is 19, still quite slight, has barely played senior footy and certainly hasn't spent much time up forward in the seniors, then I'm not sure that we can be all that confident that he won't turn into a genuine key forward.

Imagine him with another 10-15 kgs and 50+ games under his belt. There's no real reason why he couldn't play as a genuine tall. I'm not suggesting he absolutely will but I reckon we should keep an open mind about it. If nothing else, there is an awful lot to work with in terms of natural talent. It isn't a massive stretch to think we could manufacture something out of him that suits our list needs better.

Was thinking about this during the game. He has a body that could easily add another 15kegs. Has good aesthetics throughout his whole body and one of the things I look for is how the development of the legs are. He has some nice looking legs imo.

His speed is elite for his height, has great agility and an elite leap as seen today. Ball skills are very good when it hit the deck for a 194cm beast. It was the first time since a young Brennan that we have a high flying KPP on our hands, but I have a feeling McStay can be more dominant in the contest.

 

[SizeMatters]

You're SO welcome for the information. I'll remember not to come back to this board in future with anything that may be of interest to you. Good riddance.

The clique strikes again. Do come back mate I like your input.

 

[Caiphus]

I'm getting a little more comfortable with going best available every week, the more wins we get.

 

[QLDatHEART]

The clique strikes again. Do come back mate I like your input.

I'm new here..... but woooosh.

 

[Hollow Knight]

The clique strikes again. Do come back mate I like your input.

Haha gold. Whoosh indeed

 

[QLDatHEART]

I'm new here..... but woooosh.

Sorry Size Matters..... I'm guilty of the odd woosh moment too.[emoji6]


Post edit
Yeah I just quoted myself

 

[SizeMatters]

He's part of the clique isn't he...?

maybe a double whoosh?

 

[Hollow Knight]

Nah just a massive solo whoosh.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...-pick-tyler-roos.1069380/page-2#post-34198811

 

[carnthemlions]

I'm getting a little more comfortable with going best available every week, the more wins we get.

Picking the slider seems to have been the way to go for us.
That could be Wright, if I'm reading the current 'mood' correctly(probably not, I actually have no idea what I'm talking about).
Would be happy if that did happen, though. Brayshaw could be a solid option too, but seems like the kind of player Roos would love to snaffle.

 

[Panthera]

Past two drafts have been impeccable for us

2012: 8.Mayes 23.Paparone 32.Close
2013: 7.Aish 22.Gardiner 25.McStay 28.Taylor 33.Cutler 34.Robertson

If the kids are developed correctly and stick with the club (6 of 9 have already extended contracts), that's half a team built in 2 drafts

Could be the perfect 10 if Freeman comes on in coming years

 

[jjami15]

Our current drive up the ladder is a happy conundrum to be in when speculating our pick number and also who to take there. Feels so long ago when pick one was supposedly ours.

I really don't know which way to go at pick 5. Surely Melb will get two straight after each other when Frawley leaves. I think most here can see us with pick 5. Wright could slide and I do expect him to but at the moment top four could look like;
Saints - McCartin or Petracca
GWS - Petracca or Durdin (bit of a reach though)
Melb - Brayshaw and ????? Wright
Bris - possibly Wright, Durdin, Lever, Goddard or someone who does a Bont/Macrae and rises.

So long to go. Trade period to happen which could see things change drastically. Lots more speculation to happen.

 

[POBT]

A bit of analysis of the talls on our list. I've split the group into 4 categories - those who are locked into the role, those who show enough that we can plan around them being in the role for a long time to come, those who have shown enough promise that they are a viable option and those who are likely to be on the list for another year or two but don't have any real runs on the board. I've then split players into 4 roles - ruck, ruck/forward, tall forward and tall defender. Obviously, there are some double ups for players who can play more than one role.

Simply based on the majority view in the relevant thread, I've assumed Lisle and Michael will be delisted although I certainly concede that either/both might survive for another year. I've also not included McGuane or Paparone who I don't think play as genuine talls.

Has made it:

Rucks: Leuenberger, Martin, West
Ruck/Forwards: West (?)
Forwards: Staker, Merrett (?)
Defenders: Patfull, Merrett, Maguire

Looks like they will make it:

Rucks: nil
Ruck/Forwards: nil
Forwards: Close
Defenders: Gardiner, Clarke

Might make it:

Rucks: nil
Ruck/Forwards: Martin, Leuenberger
Forward: McStay, Paine
Defender: McStay

Too early to tell:

Ruck: Smith
Ruck/Forward: Freeman
Forward: Freeman
Defender: Bourke


I would be surprised if Hammelman doesn't end up on our list. So that's another developing tall forward and would bring us to 5 - Close, McStay, Freeman, Paine, Hammelman. Uebergang is a possibility too. That is quite a few options, albeit most are quite speculative at this point.

While it is too early to tell definitively what role McStay might play in the future, if he does end up forward then we probably need another young tall defender on the list given (a) the age of our mature backs and (b) the fact that, other than Gardiner and Clarke, the cupboard is prety bare. However, the likes of Jackson and Andrews might fall to us via the Academy.

I guess the conclusion that I am reaching is that, for list balance purposes, we could probably take a variety of players with our first pick and not be too overloaded in that position. That is partly due to the fact that most of our talls are still in early stages of development and the fact that there are a few around who have the ability to play a couple of roles.

Balancing that is the fact that if you want an elite forward, you generally have to use a high draft pick. Even with the options outlined above, a genuine "A grade in the making" tall forward probably remains our biggest list need.

But I think what has changed in my mind is that an elite tall forward prospect is no longer the absolute necessity it perhaps was a few months ago. The development of Close, the glimpses we're seeing of McStay and the rising star of Hammelman, gives us options at least. Of course, if McCartin et al are available at our first pick, I think we'll be interested. But if those highly ranked guys are taken by our pick, I don't think it is a bad outcome to be selecting the "best available". We can certainly do with more midfield help, another key defender wouldn't go astray and a good user and decision maker off half back would fit the list nicely. Guys like Lever, Durdin, Brayshaw, Weller etc would be good additions to our list, even if they aren't the elite tall forward prospect we thought we might be in line for.

 

[Ironmonger]

Top post POBT.

It's getting harder and harder to figure out how many talls is enough or too many, because the dichotomy between talls and smalls is quickly breaking down, and Leppa seems to be one of the people doing the breaking.

From the team that played yesterday, Merrett, Close, Maguire and Clarke were the genuine KPPs. But Patfull, McStay and Gardiner all had roles in the team that relied on their height and aerial marking ability. Paparone and McGuane may not be key forwards in the classic sense, but wouldn't be able to perform their functions if they were 5cm shorter, at least not as well.

Ten years ago I reckon the concept of forwardline/backline balance was as simple as two or three key defenders, with the rest made up smalls with maybe one tallish flanker who could help out in the air. It seems like we're moving towards an era when you look to balance across your whole line a certain amount of aerial power (height + strength + leap) with a certain amount of speed and agility. And within that you have players that can do a job at either end.

So whether or not we draft Hammelmann, or maybe even another key defender like Durdin, could depend on how players like Gardiner, McStay, Gardiner and Clarke are seen in terms of the balance of what they bring to the team, rather than as talls or smalls.

 

[John_Proctor]

watching yesterday Melbourne could draft anyone as they have needs across the list but you'd think they'd take at least 1 tall.

Jamar is getting old. Frawley will leave (and if not they only get one pick). Dawes is only a good average player. Lynden Dunn and Colin Garland have limited lifespans as key defenders down back. there was no Fitzpatrick yesterday but he hasn't looked like a lock for a long career yet.

all up. they could use any of McCartin, Wright, Durdin to plug various gaps in the team. So - not sure where that leaves us in getting any of those 3 players.

I tend to agree with the above - we have a lot of developing young talls so if best available is clearly a midfielder then lets take him. But given the age of MErritt, Maguire, Patful I'd be happy to get Durdin at our pick ready ot plug in in 2-3 years. Also I had heard he has some swingman capabilities?

 

[jjami15]

In regards to Durdin his 'swingman' abilities are a bonus especially when you add in McStay. It definately adds options throughout a game if things aren't working or to change things up. Hasnt had the best season from all reports but from the limited vision does move quite nicely and has very good footskills which is very important. Would also add to our drafting of the SA players at our first pick for the last couple of years.

 

[dlanod]

It's starting to sound less likely for Frawley to get his $700-800k demands. If he ends up settling for less than $600k to switch to a contender, chances are Melbourne will only be getting an end of first round pick. Just some promising food for thought.

 

[POBT]

Ten years ago I reckon the concept of forwardline/backline balance was as simple as two or three key defenders, with the rest made up smalls with maybe one tallish flanker who could help out in the air. It seems like we're moving towards an era when you look to balance across your whole line a certain amount of aerial power (height + strength + leap) with a certain amount of speed and agility. And within that you have players that can do a job at either end.

I guess the other complicating factor is that there are multiple ways to play the same position. Guys like Petrie, Roughead, JRiewoldt, Kennedy might all
nominally play the same position but will have very different roles within their team's structure. And then you throw in the ruck-forwards who might also play that same position (ie deep forward) but then go into the ruck for 10 minutes a quarter.

 

[jackess]

Is Hunter from Redlands that mature age ruckman people were raving about a while back?

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-08-04/state-combines-named

 

[carnthemlions]

It's starting to sound less likely for Frawley to get his $700-800k demands. If he ends up settling for less than $600k to switch to a contender, chances are Melbourne will only be getting an end of first round pick. Just some promising food for thought.

I just don't see anyone paying him that much. He's not worth it at all.

 

[dlanod]

I just don't see anyone paying him that much. He's not worth it at all.

I honestly don't get the logic behind letting him go in order to get the pick. He's still got 5+ more good years in him and pick 4 is no guarantee of a long term quality player. Obviously Melbourne might not be in the driving seat to re-sign him, but it's more a commentary on some of their fans who'd rather the pick than the solid CHB/ok CHF.

 

[POBT]

I wonder if there has been a key defender ever on $800K. Maybe Darren Glass who was also the captain of the club? I doubt Scarlett was ever on that sort of money and he's the best defender I've seen.

 

[dlanod]

I wonder if there has been a key defender ever on $800K. Maybe Darren Glass who was also the captain of the club? I doubt Scarlett was ever on that sort of money and he's the best defender I've seen.

Taylor was offered $800,000 to move to Fremantle but re-signed for less.

Bock and Davis (the other two obvious examples I could think of) both got about $600k a year to switch clubs, same as what Taylor signed for.

 

[Ironmonger]

I honestly don't get the logic behind letting him go in order to get the pick. He's still got 5+ more good years in him and pick 4 is no guarantee of a long term quality player. Obviously Melbourne might not be in the driving seat to re-sign him, but it's more a commentary on some of their fans who'd rather the pick than the solid CHB/ok CHF.

I get the logic. They don't have to pay a top 5 pick ~$500k a season or whatever it would cost to keep Frawley, so it frees them up to go after additional players.

5+ years would be at the upper end of what he's got left, and at the lower end of when Melbourne can next expect to be successful. If premiership windows last for three or four years there won't be much overlap between Frawley's career and Melbourne's next window.

And, frankly, Frawley just isn't all that good. If someone offered most clubs a top 5 pick for a player of that quality they'd consider it an offer to good to refuse.

I'm with you. I can't see the Dees getting tier one compensation, mostly because of what I think of as Groucho Marx logic - he wouldn't join any club dumb enough to pay $600k+ plus to get him.

He's been in a desperately unsuccessful team for years. Short-term success would have to be his number one priority right now.