Analysis 2016 AFL Trade Week Thread

[Noobz0r]

If a gun mid falls to 9 I will lose my shit.

 

[240volt]

We will go into next year expecting four kids that have never played a game of afl footy to make a difference. If your going to give up high picks it should be for ready made players. Trade period for me rated F for &&&&ed.

 

[Forzaport]

I'm not too bothered by dropping from 9 to 14. I thought that was a decent trade. What does bother me, and quite a bit, is our reckless gamble of our future pick for instant gratification this year and our inability to turn over any bit of our list. No players out, no players in after 2 dud years. Nowhere near good enough.

 

[Black 18]

Ollie will not go back to Melbourne.

Pedantic

There is a very real possibility that he will return to Victoria if we are once again having to start from scratch.

 

[snozulu]

Do we even have a pick in that still?!.

No idea

 

[bomberclifford]

I've had my hissy fit and calmed down so I can now look at this objectively.

In summary:
We drop pick 9 by 5 spots (pick 14)
We lift pick 19 by 2 spots (pick 17)
We lift pick 49 by 18 spots (pick 31)
Previously we'd lifted pick 67 by 37 spots (pick 30)
... with an added cost of our 2017 first round pick

That's a total aggregate draft improvement of 52 spots

Removing the complexity of compensation picks for the moment, and by using the final 8 as the cut off point for benchmarking, next year's pick could be anticipated like this:

Scenario A: Finish Top 4 - Pick 18 - 15
Scenario B: Finish Top 8 - Pick 14 - 11
Scenario C: Finish Mid Table - Pick 10 - 9
Scenario D: Finish Bottom 8 - Pick 1 - 8

My sense is that:
Scenario A is least likely. (huge improvement)
Scenario D is next least likely. (huge slump)
Scenario C is likely. (same as this year)
Scenario B is most likely. (mild improvement)

So we have most likely traded a pick between 9 - 14 next year for an opportunity to have 4 picks in the first two rounds this year.

Considering we went into trade week with only one pick in the first two rounds, that's a nett gain of three picks.

For this to be considered a win, we need to:
1. unearth two class players
2. draft one KPD prospect
3. finish at least in the top 8 in 2017


I've made my peace with this and I'm now content.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Freo had a great trade week. Picked up a young CHF, picked up a young premiership CHB/FB, picked up a backup KPF and picked up a multiple premiership player who will play on 1 wing and his equally capable brother on the other who kicks with the other foot, all for SFA in the end. From the confirmed trades on the Drafts Trading and Free Agency board
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/confirmed-player-movements.1148746/

GWS trades Cameron McCarthy and picks 7, 33 and 71 to Fremantle for pick 3.
Western Bulldogs traded Joel Hamling and picks 40 and 63 to Fremantle for picks 35, 43 and 61.
Geelong traded Shane Kersten to Fremantle for pick 63.
Hawthorn trades Bradley Hill to Fremantle for pick 23.

Plus they get a 2nd round compo pick for Mayne which they used in their trades and they traded some picks
Gold Coast traded picks 35 and 71 to Fremantle for picks 73 and Fremantle's 2017 2nd round pick.

 

[Steve Dore]

Pedantic

There is a very real possibility that he will return to Victoria if we are once again having to start from scratch.

Not being pedantic at all. What is the big attraction of living in Melbourne for a kid that grew up in Echuca?

 

[Zakk Wylde]

So we wanted to regenerate the list.... I think 4 picks in the top 31 does that very well. We were always going to regenerate through the draft.

I'm not exactly sure what people were expecting ? We were never in the game to land another gun player via trade. We were never getting Gibbs/JOM etc.

I think people here are distressed that we're stuck with Lobbe. We certainly tried I can assure you. Nobody wanted to touch his contract.
If we moved Lobbe I bet everyone here would be feeling a lot better.....including me I assure you.

Lists aren't finalised and there'll certainly be more to play out with potential additions.

Lets not have kittens for **** sake. Some of the snot written the last couple of days has been farcical.

By all means, our list is far form in perfect shape, but we'll be a lot better off than all of you who have thrown your toys from the cot think we'll be.

Another myth is that people think we're stuck for next year.... Like we can't make any more moves or something.

 

[PJ Power]

Freo had a great trade week. Picked up a young CHF, picked up a young premiership CHB/FB, picked up a backup KPF and picked up a multiple premiership player who will play on 1 wing and his equally capable brother on the other who kicks with the other foot, all for SFA in the end. From the confirmed trades on the Drafts Trading and Free Agency board
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/confirmed-player-movements.1148746/

GWS trades Cameron McCarthy and picks 7, 33 and 71 to Fremantle for pick 3.
Western Bulldogs traded Joel Hamling and picks 40 and 63 to Fremantle for picks 35, 43 and 61.
Geelong traded Shane Kersten to Fremantle for pick 63.
Hawthorn trades Bradley Hill to Fremantle for pick 23.

Plus they get a 2nd round compo pick for Mayne which they used in their trades and they traded some picks
Gold Coast traded picks 35 and 71 to Fremantle for picks 73 and Fremantle's 2017 2nd round pick.

And they get Fyfe back next year. Gotta think they will be a stronger side in 2017.

 

[Port 2004]

So we wanted to regenerate the list.... I think 4 picks in the top 31 does that very well. We were always going to regenerate through the draft.

I'm not exactly sure what people were expecting ? We were never in the game to land another gun player via trade. We were never getting Gibbs/JOM etc.

I think people here are distressed that we're stuck with Lobbe. We certainly tried I can assure you. Nobody wanted to touch his contract.
If we moved Lobbe I bet everyone here would be feeling a lot better.....including me I assure you.

Lists aren't finalised and there'll certainly be more to play out with potential additions.

Lets not have kittens for **** sake. Some of the snot written the last couple of days has been farcical.

By all means, our list is far form in perfect shape, but we'll be a lot better off than all of you who have thrown your toys from the cot think we'll be.

Another myth is that people think we're stuck for next year.... Like we can't make any more moves or something.

I actually think that our list is in pretty good shape Zakk.

 

[Lightning_Rod]

If you look at it in isolation we have lost 3 first round picks and a third round pick for two first round picks and 2 second round picks.

But consider that the first round picks we lost, if we are being honest with ourselves, are 9 and in all likelyhood another top 10 pick, for picks 14 and 17. I just feel like that sort of trade we should have come out clearly better than what we have, not to mention handing the team that made the GF a top 10 pick in a widely regarded great draft.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Black 18]

Im surprised at the negativity....well not really.

I think we've made the best of a shit situation.

It's a 'shit situation' made by our own doings and yet no blame ever gets put on a person/s for doing so.

While we keep doing the same over and over we will continue to get similar results, as has been proven the past couple of years.

We need top end talent, not just guys that do an average job, neither great or horribly bad, and all the pressure gets thrown on a couple of top end players as to why we continually fail.

Our list beneath our top end sucks. Evidence = this years trade period.

Filling it again with more lucky dip types won't rectify this at all, without considerable luck. It wont come through the eye of Geoff Parker, that's for sure.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

And they get Fyfe back next year. Gotta think they will be a stronger side in 2017.

Fyfe, Sandilands and Johnson will all be back. I have said many times that the difference between top 4 and bottom 4 is basically 4 players - an All Oz or near All Oz quality, KPF, KPD, ruckman and midfielder. 3 out of 4 back for the full year plus the new additions and you can see a big improvement.

 

[tribey]

I've had my hissy fit and calmed down so I can now look at this objectively.

In summary:
We drop pick 9 by 5 spots (pick 14)
We lift pick 19 by 2 spots (pick 17)
We lift pick 49 by 18 spots (pick 31)
Previously we'd lifted pick 67 by 37 spots (pick 30)
... with an added cost of our 2017 first round pick

That's a total aggregate draft improvement of 52 spots

Removing the complexity of compensation picks for the moment, and by using the final 8 as the cut off point for benchmarking, next year's pick could be anticipated like this:

Scenario A: Finish Top 4 - Pick 18 - 15
Scenario B: Finish Top 8 - Pick 14 - 11
Scenario C: Finish Mid Table - Pick 10 - 9
Scenario D: Finish Bottom 8 - Pick 1 - 8

My sense is that:
Scenario A is least likely. (huge improvement)
Scenario D is next least likely. (huge slump)
Scenario C is likely. (same as this year)
Scenario B is most likely. (mild improvement)

So we have most likely traded a pick between 9 - 14 next year for an opportunity to have 4 picks in the first two rounds this year.

Considering we went into trade week with only one pick in the first two rounds, that's a nett gain of three picks.

For this to be considered a win, we need to:
1. unearth two class players
2. draft one KPD prospect
3. finish at least in the top 8 in 2017


I've made my peace with this and I'm now content.

Scenario E: Sydney unearth the next Dangerfield/Rioli/Lynch with #9

We take #14 Sellar #17 Lobbe #30 Symes #31 Peel

I don't even want to think about what GC17 do with next year's first.

#allthemelts

 

[rumoursofwinter]

I really love our draft picks and think it is a great draft for us.

I'm actually pretty happy with the job of cd and Cripps.

My major gripe is that we gave massively conflicting messages. The whole ruthless and aggressive thing was ridiculous. There are conflicts of message within the club and it needs to be sorted.

The reality is that it is a deep draft and the first 30 are really strong with lots of players to suit our list. The players available late in the draft should also suit our list and complement the first four. If we had come out at the beginning and said we were concentrating on improving our draft position because it was a strong draft and we need to replenish our talent, I would have been happy.

The messages from the club including the parading of HH were woeful. I think someone needs to take responsibility for the message rather than the result.

Anyway, one day I dream that we will trade out a player because he is surplus to our needs and bring in a type of player that we need. For now, I'm loving the draft.

 

[CharlieKelly]

a couple of things worth noting...

* of the original First Round draft picks, only eight are still with their original owners
* Hawthorn will only have picks #81, #83 and #86...none of them have any value
* so we can now safely assume Ben Jarman is joining the Crows as their first ever father-son pick
* Melbourne will only have #47, #69, #78, that's it

 

[KenOath]

I've got the feeling we will draft one of Marshall, Battle or Kerr with either 14 or 17. While I understand the need for us to do this, I feel really strongly that we need to make sure that everyone of our picks this year has a high likelihood of playing >100 games of AFL. A balance of three mids (including one with very high ceiling) and one tall forward is what I'd like to take from those 4 draft picks. No flankers, no ruck prospects that take 8 years to develop and then play just 22 games. Three bona fide, high possession winning mids.

I think so too. I'd say we're going for Marshall and expect that if he's still there at 9 he'll also still be there at 14 and we'll then take a mid at 17. If Marshall goes earlier then Battle should still be available at 17, so we can take a mid with 14.

You'd then think Kerr or Hayward will likely still be there at 30, 31 too if we did want a second forward, but I'd prefer 3 genuine mids and then rookie list a development ruck.

 

[Zakk Wylde]

I actually think that our list is in pretty good shape Zakk.

I'm bullish on what it can achieve in a perfect world. But the list has a lot of dead weight.

 

[Portmanteau]

Brilliant opportunity to pick the best four available flankers

 

[Black 18]

We can trade into the first round next year remember peeps. If we turn out to be shithouse next year as many are predicting, it will be rebuild mode and flogging off some of our aging "stars" who won't ever be part of a premiership with Port Adelaide will be a very real and easier option.

'Aging' starts won't get you a first rounder. To trade back in it will be a Pittard or Wines, so while you're back in you really haven't won, you've lost in doing so.

 

[Chachi]

For me this trade period has shown us that the club believes that;

1) we need mids
2) next years draft mids aren't the quality of this years
3) the KPF we want will be available at one of our first 2 picks and he's as good as the possible KPF available at pick 18 next year

If the club doesn't believe these things then I've got NFI as to their logic.

 

[Malibu#27]

Boak - 5
Wingard - 6
Wines - 7
Ryder - 7
Gray - 55

5 players, picked at 5, 6, 7, 7, and 55 = an average draft pick of 16. We have 14 and 17 = winning ... its all about the averages.

 

[Waspy79]

Powell-Pepper
Byrne-Jones
McMillan-Pittard

 

[bomberclifford]

Scenario E: Sydney unearth the next Dangerfield/Rioli/Lynch with #9

We take #14 Sellar #17 Lobbe #30 Symes #31 Peel

I don't even want to think about what GC17 do with next year's first.

#allthemelts

That's stuff outside our control and you don't know that we'd make the same choices as Sydney/Gold Coast in the draft.
I'm purposely being ultra-rational and logical to try and make sense of what we did.

Let's hope that our drafting team has given our trading team a heads up of who we're looking for and where they most likely will fall and the the CrippsDavies pick swapping frenzy has been to that end.