Analysis 2016 AFL Trade Week Thread

[Byrons Firen]

yeah, I think the scenario of GC's multiple picks in the 1st and second round, the additional picks to come to them with JOM and possibly Prestia, plus the possible security AhChee gives towards Callum AhChee staying at GC, then a perfect storm might just be in place to get a 2nd round pick to Port.

I think also there is the issue where the AFL won't allow picks to be taken to the draft for bidding purposes only like last year. SOmething along the lines of the number of picks that have points value (up to pick 73) must equal your the number of spots on your list or similar. That is why there has been less of the the GWS securing picks in the 60-70 range compared to last year. SO given that GC have 7 picks with points value already, it might just be possible

Arch is a ready made, ready to go player. GC either want him or not. My fear is, we are just dumb enough to be taken for a ride.
**** the Lobbe deal done when we were drinking our bath water.

 

[philthy05]

Haha thanks for the reply... and respect that you don't want the list cloggers.. but the Ah chee deal will get done for a lot less than a second rounder...

For what it is worth Callum comes out of contract at the same time ah chee does.


And if you don't sign ah chee this off season what do you think your odds are of keeping Callum next season ?


I would think it would suit port very much to counter any offer of pick 44 for ah chee with an offer of pick 9 for Callum , and a message we may be in Callum's ear next off season.


Gold Coast need Brendan more than we need pick 44.

 

[philthy05]

Ah Chee was pick 45 originally. There is absolutely no way he has increased his value since. If we hadn't set his deal up to trigger a second year he should be on the list of potential delistings. Gold coasts #44 would be suitable probably, with it being in Ports favour.

We may even trade him for #62 and #80.

What have we got to gain by trading ah chee? Pick 44?


Gain by ah chee staying ? he reaches his potential , His brother asks for a trade to port to play with his brother when he comes out of contract next season , ah chee increases his trade value.

Downside. He doesn't do any of those things and we have missed out on a pick 44.


Seriously it's a no brainer.

 

[Greendogg]

For what it is worth Callum comes out of contract at the same time ah chee does.


And if you don't sign ah chee this off season what do you think your odds are of keeping Callum next season ?


I would think it would suit port very much to counter any offer of pick 44 for ah chee with an offer of pick 9 for Callum , and a message we may be in Callum's ear next off season.


Gold Coast need Brendan more than we need pick 44.

Good reply, I think we take Brendan if we have list space.. if not, personally I'm not too concerned that Callum would leave the Goldy. He is a quality kid who loves it here... I would say we will grab Brendan, he has nominated us.. hopefully you guys get a player you want, like a Schade or a Brooksby otherwise I'm afraid it will be a 4th rounder at best..

 

[philthy05]

Good reply, I think we take Brendan if we have list space.. if not, personally I'm not too concerned that Callum would leave the Goldy. He is a quality kid who loves it here... I would say we will grab Brendan, he has nominated us.. hopefully you guys get a player you want, like a Schade or a Brooksby otherwise I'm afraid it will be a 4th rounder at best..

you don't generally just 'grab' players when they are contracted.

If he is traded to you it is because port made the decision to.

Also if you made it past any headlines when he asked to be traded to gold coast he also said he is happy to stay if a trade doesn't happen.

 

[jdeezy]

"Let's be ruthless this off season and trade some of our deadwood"
"Hey we'd like to trade for one of your deadwood"
"Lol nah this deadwood has potential go away"

 

[Doctor Feel]

What have we got to gain by trading ah chee? Pick 44?


Gain by ah chee staying ? he reaches his potential , His brother asks for a trade to port to play with his brother when he comes out of contract next season , ah chee increases his trade value.

Downside. He doesn't do any of those things and we have missed out on a pick 44.


Seriously it's a no brainer.

For ****s sake, this is the shit attitude that got us into this mess in the first place. He's 23 by the start of next season and he's done absolutely **** all. It's not as if he's a tall or anything.

Move. Them. On.

Pick 44 literally gets us back what we invested in him, if you made an investment a few years ago and sold it for the same price you got it for despite it woefully under performing, you would be loving it.

You can't just not trade or delist someone based on "but what if he comes good" that means you will never trade or turn over the list, ever.

Which is exactly what we've ****ing done for the past decade. We kept Andrew Moore until age 24 waiting for him to come good. That was totally worth it.

 

[Greendogg]

you don't generally just 'grab' players when they are contracted.

If he is traded to you it is because port made the decision to.

Also if you made it past any headlines when he asked to be traded to gold coast he also said he is happy to stay if a trade doesn't happen.

Yeah, no I read the stories... we will grab him if we have list space because he nominated us, but if we don't he is happy to stay because he is contracted... I think we will create list space because he is a quality young player, I just don't think you will get much for him... sorry to be the bearer of bad news.. Hope Dicko gets over that ankle injury

 

[Hammer#8]

"Let's be ruthless this off season and trade some of our deadwood"
"Hey we'd like to trade for one of your deadwood"
"Lol nah this deadwood has potential go away"

13 names on a whiteboard = ruthless

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

For ****s sake, this is the shit attitude that got us into this mess in the first place. He's 23 by the start of next season and he's done absolutely **** all. It's not as if he's a tall or anything.

Move. Them. On.

Pick 44 literally gets us back what we invested in him, if you made an investment a few years ago and sold it for the same price you got it for despite it woefully under performing, you would be loving it.

You can't just not trade or delist someone based on "but what if he comes good" that means you will never trade or turn over the list, ever.

Which is exactly what we've ******* done for the past decade. We kept Andrew Moore until age 24 waiting for him to come good. That was totally worth it.

but what if he comes good though brah

 

[Forzaport]

For ****s sake, this is the shit attitude that got us into this mess in the first place. He's 23 by the start of next season and he's done absolutely **** all.

Move. Them. On.

Pick 44 literally gets us back what we invested in him, if you made an investment a few years ago and sold it for the same price you got it for despite it woefully under performing, you would be loving it.

You can't just not trade or delist someone based on "but what if he comes good" that means you will never trade or turn over the list, ever.

Which is exactly what we've ******* done for the past decade.

Western Bulldogs probably the best example of turning over the list and finding value using late draft picks, DFAs and rookie selections.

Hawthorn also let go Kennedy and McGlynn for a song and still won 3 straight.

 

[Doctor Feel]

but what if he comes good though brah

 

[philthy05]

For ****s sake, this is the shit attitude that got us into this mess in the first place. He's 23 by the start of next season and he's done absolutely **** all. It's not as if he's a tall or anything.

Move. Them. On.

Pick 44 literally gets us back what we invested in him, if you made an investment a few years ago and sold it for the same price you got it for despite it woefully under performing, you would be loving it.

You can't just not trade or delist someone based on "but what if he comes good" that means you will never trade or turn over the list, ever.

Which is exactly what we've ******* done for the past decade. We kept Andrew Moore until age 24 waiting for him to come good. That was totally worth it.

You need to separate the difference between holding onto players like Hitchcock into perpetuity and making smart decisions with the list.


One more year of a contracted ah chee is hardly gonna burn us. We already have pick 48. Who are we gonna miss out on drafting with pick 44?

 

[Doctor Feel]

You need to separate the difference between holding onto players like Hitchcock into perpetuity and making smart decisions with the list.


One more year of a contracted ah chee is hardly gonna burn us. We already have pick 48. Who are we gonna miss out on drafting with pick 44?

Heath Scotland, Josh Hunt, Alipate Carlile, Rory Sloane, Aliir Aliir a few recent selections at 44. Gray at 55. This is besides the point though.

Why on earth would you persist with a team, a culture even that is now known for nothing but outright failure? You don't hold onto players for what if scenarios (even more so in our situation), you move them on and reset the clock. It's far more likely to unearth a talent at 44 than a player who is 4 or 5 years into their career suddenly coming on. I would say there are stats to back that up.

The dogs just won a premiership with only three of their players being top 10 picks, only four inside the top 20. The core of their entire list is built around pick 25+ players.

 

[philthy05]

Heath Scotland, Josh Hunt, Alipate Carlile, Rory Sloane, Aliir Aliir a few recent selections at 44. Gray at 55.

Exceptions are not the norm



If you value that kinda pick so bad why not trade lobbe or Oshea ? Why bail out a gold coast team who are struggling for form, to hold onto players , and need ah chee to stop his brother from bailing out next year when his contract ends and have draft picks coming out the wazoo.

At this point if Gold Coast don't trade pick 44 they will pass on it and move our pick 48 closer lol.


accepting pick 44 for ah chee just isn't a smart call for a multitude of reasons.

 

[philthy05]

Just because some posters wanna move players on doesn't mean we discard all rational thinking and don't manoeuvre in any way to improve our position when we have an opportunity to do so.

 

[Doctor Feel]

Just because some posters wanna move players on doesn't mean we discard all rational thinking and don't manoeuvre in any way to improve our position when we have an opportunity to do so.

What you are saying is not rational or pragmatic thinking though. Here is why:

1) Ah Chee is not worth more than pick 44 in any sense of the word.
2) We are in a period of change, and to make changes you actually need to trade for draft picks.
3) Holding onto players based on "what if" scenarios four or five years into their careers rarely, if ever, pays off.
4) We can draft a player whose role is more suited to our needs, such as KPD, KPF or Ruck.
5) The most likely scenario is we de-list him end of 2017, receiving nothing.
6) We have been awful for two seasons, Ah Chee has played limited game time despite an injury depleted side - he won't be first 22 if we are playing well.
7) No one wins premierships by playing safe with mediocre players because "what if we draft a dud"
8) Salma Hayek.

We are not making change for the sake of change here. We are making change because we ****ing suck and need to make a move. The absolute worst, absolute worst a team can do is finish 9th to 10th. It's no mans land. You don't play finals, you don't get a great draft pick. We HAVE to change and take risks.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

I can't really compare Ah Chee to Moore. Ah Chee has a few elite games, all towards the end of 2015.

Moore has zero.

 

[Doctor Feel]

I can't really compare Ah Chee to Moore. Ah Chee has a few elite games, all towards the end of 2015.

Moore has zero.

Moore played consistently good football at SANFL level for donkeys years. Ah Chee has played what mounts to a season and a quarter of good football at any level. The fact we are even debating about Ah Chee staying or going is a huge warning sign that we are ****ing terrible. He should be out the door.

 

[Established1870]

If we're getting rid of fringe midfielders, I want Sam Gray gone before Ah Chee. In saying that, our midfield depth is shit house so getting rid of either right now is pointless unless we want a repeat of this year.

 

[mightypowerrrr]

What you are saying is not rational or pragmatic thinking though. Here is why:

1) Ah Chee is not worth more than pick 44 in any sense of the word.
2) We are in a period of change, and to make changes you actually need to trade for draft picks.
3) Holding onto players based on "what if" scenarios four or five years into their careers rarely, if ever, pays off.
4) We can draft a player whose role is more suited to our needs, such as KPD, KPF or Ruck.
5) The most likely scenario is we de-list him end of 2017, receiving nothing.
6) We have been awful for two seasons, Ah Chee has played limited game time despite an injury depleted side - he won't be first 22 if we are playing well.
7) No one wins premierships by playing safe with mediocre players because "what if we draft a dud"
8) Salma Hayek.

We are not making change for the sake of change here. We are making change because we ******* suck and need to make a move. The absolute worst, absolute worst a team can do is finish 9th to 10th. It's no mans land. You don't play finals, you don't get a great draft pick. We HAVE to change and take risks.

Yep, we're becoming the new Richmond. We finished 9th (10th this year) again

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Bugger it lets just keep everyone and just work longery n' hardery

 

[KenOath]

If we're getting rid of fringe midfielders, I want Sam Gray gone before Ah Chee. In saying that, our midfield depth is shit house so getting rid of either right now is pointless unless we want a repeat of this year.

This is my concern with trading Ah Chee. For mine he is better and has more potential than at least 10 players on our list. So while we need to clean out some deadwood, we should still try to start at the very bottom and work our way up.

 

[Established1870]

Bugger it lets just keep everyone and just work longery n' hardery

There's getting rid of players and having the ability to replace them effectively and there's getting rid of players and only being able to replace them with Jimmy Toumpas.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

There's getting rid of players and having the ability to replace them effectively and there's getting rid of players and only being able to replace them with Jimmy Toumpas.

I gotta admit if I had a choice between Toumpas and Ah Chee I'm going Arch everyday of the week

If we had serious balls we'd pay out Toump and move the **** on