Analysis 2016 AFL Trade Week Thread

[CharlieKelly]

Yea I'm not swapping 9 for picks that''ll slide out to 20ish

I don't see how would that happen?

Academy picks wise, Jack Bowes is just going to cost Gold Coast their fourth pick, that doesn't really affect the order, Will Setterfield will probably cost GWS their 15th pick, again, doesn't really affect the order, it depends on when Brad Scheer (GC), Harry Perryman, Harrison Macreadie and Koby Mutch (GWS) attract bids, and I think they'll all be late first round, early second round, we might even bid on one of them

 

[NEGAN]

Marcus Adams request trade back to WA bulldogs will need key defenders trengrove for there pick 18 throw in Lobbe for there 2nd

Get back to work CD.

 

[Magus]

O'Shea for some twix.

It's got that cookie crunch.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

I hope we are sniffing around Geelong for more than Vardy.. exploding celery caps

 

[shewho]

I'd trade Pick 9 to Sydney for Picks 14 and 17

There are 2 great prospects (McCluggage and McGrath) and 5 excellent prospects (Ainsworth, SPS, Bowes, Brodie and Taranto). Every year there are a few sliders. Amazingly, some people slide well after they kick their last ball for the year or run their last combine test. It happens every year.

Its a leap of faith, but I'll back landing one of these guys at 9. While that's a possibility, absolutely do not trade down. SPS would be a dream come true and it could happen. The following teams above us on the draft order have been burnt by indigenous high draft picks either going "home" after a couple of years or otherwise being flops-

#1 Essendon- will go with McCluggage so its irrelevant
#2 GWS- will go McGrath so it's irrelevant (but Jarrod Pickett)
#3 BL- Albert Proud
#4, #8 and maybe #6 GC- Krakouer, Bennell, Sumner
#5 CA- Clem Smith
#6 RI- Tambling, Yarran

That leaves Freo. I have a sneaking suspicion that they traded down from 3 to 7 because they are going to take English and knew he'd be available at 7.

I know it is fantasy but it was also fantasy that Wingard and Wines would slip to 6. So, while there is a chance of landing a slider from this lot, do not trade down.

 

[Popielnicki]

With Ryder back why is Trengrove so required i think backline did ok with Hombsch injured so him back we have Dixon can help Ryder Trengrove wouldn't be that bad especially for pick 18

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Yea I'm not swapping 9 for picks that''ll slide out to 20ish

The picks aren't sliding anywhere. I'll give you an example.

Here's a quick mock draft of the top 10:

1. McCluggage
2. McGrath
3. Brodie
4. Bowes
5. SPS
6. English
7. Setterfield
8. Taranto
9. Perryman
10. Ainsworth

Okay, in this scenario, put a line through Bowes, Setterfield and Perryman. Why? Because only one team gets access to each of those players. GC for Bowes and GWS for Setterfield and Perryman. So instead of looking at is as picks sliding, you should mentally think of it as picks going up.

So Bowes to GC = SPS is now 4, English is 5.

Setterfield to GWS = Taranto is now 6.

Perryman to GWS = Ainsworth is now 7.

These players were never available. Saying that a pick is sliding down to 20 does nothing to it's value. Absolutely nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

 

[NEGAN]

WCE are into Vardy too.

Hopefully they snag him.

 

[Magus]

With Ryder back why is Trengrove so required i think backline did ok with Hombsch injured so him back we have Dixon can help Ryder Trengrove wouldn't be that bad especially for pick 18

Go into the season with one ruck, who is coming back from a year off?

 

[Lagooner]

O'Shea for some twix.

Careful now, they're known to get caught in the machine!

 

[Quadzilla]

Careful now, they're known to get caught in the machine!

 

[Doctor Feel]

Sam Gray is getting interest from Victoria - Grays manager mid 2016. Yep. Uh huh. Cool story m8.

 

[Lagooner]

Sam Gray is getting interest from Victoria - Grays manager mid 2016. Yep. Uh huh. Cool story m8.

That's great Feel but what does this Victoria lass have to do with Trade Week?

 

[Doctor Feel]

That's great Feel but what does this Victoria lass have to do with Trade Week?

I heard she has hairy armpits, a bullnose ring and enjoys starbucks.

 

[RossFC]

Sam Gray is getting interest from Victoria - Grays manager mid 2016. Yep. Uh huh. Cool story m8.

If I didn't love Maggies boys so much I would have traded him.

 

[Lagooner]

I heard she has hairy armpits, a bullnose ring and enjoys starbucks.

Footy players always jag the hot ones.

 

[PAFC66]

With Ryder back why is Trengrove so required i think backline did ok with Hombsch injured so him back we have Dixon can help Ryder Trengrove wouldn't be that bad especially for pick 18

I agree.. hes the only one worth anything

 

[Established1870]

Freo have gotten McCarthy, Hill and still have their first pick whilst also in the hunt for Kersten, Hamling, Marsh and Adams. They get one of those defenders, along with Kersten and maybe one more mid, then they're the singular trade winners of this year.

 

[Steve Dore]

That's great Feel but what does this Victoria lass have to do with Trade Week?

Apparently she's got a secret.

 

[RossFC]

With Ryder back why is Trengrove so required i think backline did ok with Hombsch injured so him back we have Dixon can help Ryder Trengrove wouldn't be that bad especially for pick 18

Can we please keep our only KPF in the forward line. Trengove is a great backup ruck.

 

[LK Metro]

Marcus Adams request trade back to WA bulldogs will need key defenders trengrove for there pick 18 throw in Lobbe for there 2nd

For a minute I was concerned...
Thankfully, I now understand that you're suggesting Melbourne need to trade Jack Trengrove (sic) to WB so that HE can play in their key defensive post.

Seriously (wo)man, WTF?

 

[PAFC_1870]

Trade a guy who bleeds Port, just cause?

Like Vince?

Trengove isn't and should never go anywhere. You build around guys like him.

 

[Chrizzt]

The picks aren't sliding anywhere. I'll give you an example.

Here's a quick mock draft of the top 10:

1. McCluggage
2. McGrath
3. Brodie
4. Bowes
5. SPS
6. English
7. Setterfield
8. Taranto
9. Perryman
10. Ainsworth

Okay, in this scenario, put a line through Bowes, Setterfield and Perryman. Why? Because only one team gets access to each of those players. GC for Bowes and GWS for Setterfield and Perryman. So instead of looking at is as picks sliding, you should mentally think of it as picks going up.

So Bowes to GC = SPS is now 4, English is 5.

Setterfield to GWS = Taranto is now 6.

Perryman to GWS = Ainsworth is now 7.

These players were never available. Saying that a pick is sliding down to 20 does nothing to it's value. Absolutely nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

You're thinking about it the wrong way around - it's not about the pick number. The mentioned academy players (Bowes and Setterfield at least) are high pick players. If nobody bids early for them, GC and GWS are securing more high end players, leaving other clubs to pick the eg 10th best player in the draft pool instead of the 8th best.

Additionally, with regards to trade activity apart from Hammer we are shopping around second/third tier players. Those players are almost always an after thought and require other deals to have been done or definitively not done to go through. Lobbe leaving is dependent on what happens to Nankervis (who is overseas hence lack of movement). Ah Chee is dependent on what mature players GC bring in and what it costs them (eg Hanley moving and if it costs them more than one top 20 pick).

It's similar to our interest in Gorringe a few years back. It was very real, but the unexpected 2nd round pick cost and the extreme lateness of the deal just meant it couldn't be accomodated. There is some concern that these trades pushing out to the last few days means they won't get done but I'm pretty confident we will see a few things happen late.

 

[Kingfish73]

I would be looking to trade Westhoff and Broadbent WELL before Trengove. If most of our fringe players are yielding no decent trade options, then we should be aggressive on players that will create some interest.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

You're thinking about it the wrong way around - it's not about the pick number. The mentioned academy players (Bowes and Setterfield at least) are high pick players. If nobody bids early for them, GC and GWS are securing more high end players, leaving other clubs to pick the eg 10th best player in the draft pool instead of the 8th best.

Nope, you're arguing the same thing as me - just mentioning different things. Those players are still unavailable to us - if GC and GWS secure other high pick players, that doesn't change the value of our picks at all - it just means they're getting those players instead of another team getting those players.