2016 Draft discussion

[neg99]

Given 2 of the last 4 grand finalists and the last premiers (WB and WCE) had defensive lines built on ~192cm players trusting a full defensive structure, pressure across the ground and relying on elite interceptors (McGovern, Easton Wood for example) I think we're seeing a push to the next defensive line prototype with 1 and maybe 2 at most true key defenders (194cm+ today, likely to be 200cm+ in the not too distant future going by the heights we're seeing come through) .

If we're buying into that kind of structure I'd expect we're well stocked for true KPDs with Frost as cover now as the negating role, Andrews and McStay as the potential elite interceptors and distributors, Gardiner as the lock down on the dangerous small/medium type, cutler as the elite line breaker and penetrating kick and likely a sixth to be found in this draft in a HB runner/distributor type role similar to the million unnatural players we've tried (Mayes, Christiansen etc and obviously Hanley who did well in the role).

That leaves plenty of usual suspects for depth with Skinner or Declan Watson given time to develop to take Frosts role.

That said in basketball there's an adage that rings true to me. You can't play a zone defence until you learn to defend one on one. I reckon our guys have had plenty of stressful practice at that. Time to get some serious forward line and midfield pressure so the defence can focus on developing then transition to the modern game.

Long story short I don't know the KPD prospects this year at all but unless they fit the mould of elite intercept, runner or distributor then it's a big no from me (caveat that junior footy obviously doesn't reflect the modern game style yet so there's an element of estimating potential to fill one of those roles in the future)

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Soren Lorenson]

Yeah, you may be right (I recall an early Lions website story quoting him at 195).
Difficult to get right when there are so many different height measurements listed for the same player.
For speed and consistency, I used the one site for all those discussed heights (it was quicker that way).

Heck, they can't even get the heights right at the combine (just ask Quigley).

Standing height is just one component of a players ability to play as a 'tall' defender. I am 189cm and was a full 1/2 a head taller than a guy I used to play with, however one night after training we did a reach test. I obviously have short arms because he was able a to reach a full hand further than i was. Height, reach and jumping ability should all be factored in when assessing a players ability to play as a tall defender.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

All Australian selection at U18 level is often but not always a good predictor of success at senior level. Josh McGuinness our most recent example.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Standing height is just one component of a players ability to play as a 'tall' defender. I am 189cm and was a full 1/2 a head taller than a guy I used to play with, however one night after training we did a reach test. I obviously have short arms because he was able a to reach a full hand further than i was. Height, reach and jumping ability should all be factored in when assessing a players ability to play as a tall defender.

Exactly. And I feel like I say it a lot, but people get WAAAAY too hung up on measurements and testing. How they play is far more important.

Arguing that the definition of a key defender is the difference between 192cm & 194cm is just ridiculous.

 

[Lions Lions]

We might be looking to add a mature age player key back either prior to draft or in rookie draft, so might not draft cox or a kpd anyway. Had a good look at his tapes online, he is a solid defender but his kicking out of defence is very floaty. In saying that when he moves forward he kicks well at goal. Wierd.

 

[Quigley]

Why do you rate Brodie Quigley?
Admittedly I only saw him 3 times this year. My impression was a good Inside/clearance player who doesn't get big number and doesn't show an ability to spread to the outside very well. Very good at getting first hands on the footy at a stoppage.

I got onboard with Brodie at the AFL Academy games against the VFL teams. A lot of the kids were disappointing but Brodie was one who really stepped up. He looked fully capable of stepping up to the next level and dominating as an inside mid where I don't think any of the others on display showed that. He does need to work on his outside game and getting more of the easy ball but he still managed to average over 20 disposals at each level he played this year so whilst he is not an elite accumulator he still gets enough of it.

Primarily though I really rate the importance of clearance wins and Brodie is going to give a team that. I think for inside specialists they adapt and add an outside game pretty naturally when they get to the AFL and their running ability improves with the miles they have to do. I do think it is much harder to go the other way. I see Brodie developing like a Wines.

 

[Quigley]

Brennan Cox measured a bit short but he has a good reach and was in the top 10 for the running jump. He also has a powerful body that he uses well and is disciplined with his spoiling and marking.

If he measure was right he is shorter than is ideal but it is worth noting that he is taller than Maibaum who is being touted as a lock down defender.

 

[Crusha]

Exactly. And I feel like I say it a lot, but people get WAAAAY too hung up on measurements and testing. How they play is far more important.

Arguing that the definition of a key defender is the difference between 192cm & 194cm is just ridiculous.

Shame we have to look "overseas" for sobering content.

Thanks Ned.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

We might be looking to add a mature age player key back either prior to draft or in rookie draft, so might not draft cox or a kpd anyway. Had a good look at his tapes online, he is a solid defender but his kicking out of defence is very floaty. In saying that when he moves forward he kicks well at goal. Wierd.

I watched the vids, especially of his SANFL games and thought the very same thing. Usually it works the other way.

 

[Lions Lions]

Look for Carlton to pick him up with pick 25 and turn him into a fwd

 

[Lions Lions]

Brennan Cox measured a bit short but he has a good reach and was in the top 10 for the running jump. He also has a powerful body that he uses well and is disciplined with his spoiling and marking.

If he measure was right he is shorter than is ideal but it is worth noting that he is taller than Maibaum who is being touted as a lock down defender.

Cox moves a bit like May from the Gold Coast

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Shame we have to look "overseas" for sobering content.

Thanks Ned.

I've got dual citizenship .

Apologies, I didn't mind to be heavy-handed with that comment. I'm probably just over the over-analysis on draftees. It's great we've got something to talk about, but those of us prone to shooting the shit on footy but don't get out to many/amy underage games have a tendency to passing judgement based on what is written elsewhere.

 

[briztoon]

I've got dual citizenship .

Apologies, I didn't mind to be heavy-handed with that comment. I'm probably just over the over-analysis on draftees. It's great we've got something to talk about, but those of us prone to shooting the shit on footy but don't get out to many/amy underage games have a tendency to passing judgement based on what is written elsewhere.

I never....

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Cox moves a bit like May from the Gold Coast

Except he keeps his eyes on the ball.

 

[Crusha]

I've got dual citizenship .

Apologies, I didn't mind to be heavy-handed with that comment. I'm probably just over the over-analysis on draftees. It's great we've got something to talk about, but those of us prone to shooting the shit on footy but don't get out to many/amy underage games have a tendency to passing judgement based on what is written elsewhere.

No need to apologise to me Ned (if that's where it was intended)............

Exactly. And I feel like I say it a lot, but people get WAAAAY too hung up on measurements and testing. How they play is far more important.

Arguing that the definition of a key defender is the difference between 192cm & 194cm is just ridiculous.

........ I was glad for some rational support on the "tall" discussion.

 

[jackess]

No need to apologise to me Ned (if that's where it was intended)............




........ I was glad for some rational support on the "tall" discussion.

But you don't think Gardiner or McStay can play key back..... ok.

 

[Jman78]

If I had one wish it would be that Scrimshaw was a massive slider..... not gonna happen though

 

[carnthemlions]

I got onboard with Brodie at the AFL Academy games against the VFL teams. A lot of the kids were disappointing but Brodie was one who really stepped up. He looked fully capable of stepping up to the next level and dominating as an inside mid where I don't think any of the others on display showed that. He does need to work on his outside game and getting more of the easy ball but he still managed to average over 20 disposals at each level he played this year so whilst he is not an elite accumulator he still gets enough of it.

Primarily though I really rate the importance of clearance wins and Brodie is going to give a team that. I think for inside specialists they adapt and add an outside game pretty naturally when they get to the AFL and their running ability improves with the miles they have to do. I do think it is much harder to go the other way. I see Brodie developing like a Wines.

Would you be at all disappointed if we drafted him at 3? Just highlights obviously, but the brief bits of vision I've seen were quite impressive despite a few disposal issues.

 

[WA Lion]

If I had one wish it would be that Scrimshaw was a massive slider..... not gonna happen though

Apparently not keen on being drafted by Lions though (not sure how reliable that is though)

 

[Quigley]

If I had one wish it would be that Scrimshaw was a massive slider..... not gonna happen though

12.7 in the beep means there is some chance of that happening. Probably unlikely but it is possible.

 

[Quigley]

Would you be at all disappointed if we drafted him at 3? Just highlights obviously, but the brief bits of vision I've seen were quite impressive despite a few disposal issues.

Yeah I would but only because I have sold myself on others. I think he will end up a good enough player to justify the selection.

 

[Crusha]

But you don't think Gardiner or McStay can play key back..... ok.

My opinion is No.

Don't get me wrong, I like how Gardiner "goes about it" ..... I just feel his best is limited to the "med" forwards. To me. he struggles up against the keys ..... tends to give away far too many frees. He likes (revels) in the physical body on body, but seems to lack the spring/jump needed on the "talls".

McStay I also have time for, but I don't believe we can depend on him to man mark an opponent, not back "in the last line", he plays too loose. Contrary to Gardiner, he does have great spring, and catches the eye when he intercept marks, or comes over the top to spoil, but what gets forgotten is the number of times his man is left unattended, often causing the ultimate damage. I don't know whether that is related to "tanK', desire, concentration, ....I don't know. He has the tools to potentially make a fist of it, but right now I think he is better suited for development as a forward, and, with aerobic improvement, one who can come deep onto the wing and also better apply defensive pressure up forward.

Again, these are just my thoughts/observations ....... we obviously see it differently....... and that's fine.

Hey, I'm just another ars*hole with an opinion .................... (that's how the saying goes ......doesn't it ....????)

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Guys who do well toward the end of the year and then in testing and rep games definitely have the advantage over those that don't. But their value can also be inflated and vice versa. Brodie is a case in point. Was touted as a top 3 prospect early in the year (even a possible pick 1) and a combination of injury, not testing at the combine and not playing the rep game has seen him fall away in some people's estimation. Still reckon he would be a very worthy pick 3.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

No need to apologise to me Ned (if that's where it was intended)............
........ I was glad for some rational support on the "tall" discussion.

Nah, just a general apology. This off-season has seemed a bit longer than most - I'm probably just getting a little angsty. But there's only so much of circular arguments I can tolerate. Actually, I probably should take a break for a little bit.

 

[Soren Lorenson]

Nah, just a general apology. This off-season has seemed a bit longer than most - I'm probably just getting a little angsty. But there's only so much of circular arguments I can tolerate. Actually, I probably should take a break for a little bit.