2016 Ladder Predictions

[FootyJunkie]

us = premiers

 

[SydneyFanatic35]

As much as I hate this, I think Hawthorn can/will get 4 in a row. This is my ladder and finals prediction.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

As much as I hate this, I think Hawthorn can/will get 4 in a row. This is my ladder and finals prediction.

Like how you did that...

 

[Go the Guts]

On my non biased reading the Power are being over rated in this thread. Most people have them way higher than where I expect them to finish.

FTFY

 

[hazard]

Post trade week/fixture release ladder:

1. Geelong
2. Port Adelaide
3. Richmond
4. Hawthorn
5. Bulldogs
6. West Coast
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast

9. Collingwood
10. Sydney
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. North Melbourne
14. Essendon
15. Brisbane
16. GWS
17. Adelaide (probably underrating Adelaide big time, so this is my shock plummet)
18. Carlton

Week 1:
QF1: Geelong def. by Hawthorn
QF2: Port Adelaide def. Richmond
EF2: West Coast def. Fremantle
EF1: Bulldogs def. Gold Coast

Week 2:
SF2: Richmond def. West Coast
SF1: Geelong def. Bulldogs

Week 3:
PF1: Hawthorn def. Richmond
PF2: Port Adelaide def. Geelong

Week 4:
GF: Hawthorn def. by Port Adelaide

Premier: Port Adelaide

Big risers: Geelong, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast
Big fallers: Sydney, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and GWS

Many big calls in here, so we shall see which ones come true (if any), and which ones are wrong (if any)

I agree on a lot of this.

1. West Coast
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Bulldogs
6. Geelong
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast

9. Richmond
10. North Melbourne
11. GWS
12. St Kilda
13. Adelaide
14. Melbourne
15. Sydney
16. Essendon
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

 

[gillo94]

1 Hawthorn
2 Geelong
3 West Coast
4 Sydney
5 Fremantle
6 Richmond
7 Kangaroos
8 Port Adelaide
9 Bulldogs
10 Collingwood
11 Adelaide
12 GWS
13 Gold Coast
14 St Kilda
15 Brisbane
16 Melbourne
17 Essendon
18 Carlton

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Adelaide finish top 8 despite their coach being horribly stabbed in his sleep by his smackfaced son and win a final and are now being rated as bottom 4 by a lot of posters?

Yeah I get that Dangerfield was a loss... Not many people can see past his 1 or 2 flashy highlights per game to see that of his 26 touches a game, close to half of them dont hit a target. In 2014, he was top 3 for contested ball, but of the top 100 contested ball players in the AFL, he sat around 95th when ranked for disposal efficiency... I dont think he will be that bigger loss, and over their careers I think Brad Crouch will prove to be the less flashy, more valuable player.

Recruiting Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel means Adelaides 3 list cloggers in Wright, VB and MacKay wont play as much if at all.

Cant see Adelaides forward line which averaged over 100 points a game in 2015 failing, especially with Menzel added.

1. Hawthorn
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Sydney
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Richmond
7. GWS
8. Collingwood
9. North Melbourne
10. Fremantle
11. Port
12. Geelong
13. Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. Essendon

 

[Dylan82]

Forecast model output extracted from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet:



Some caveats regarding this output:

Forecast is based on statistical probability so fails to predict "upsets" and thus skews towards top teams winning more games than actual end of season result, however based on previous year runs of the model ladder positions are sound.

Adelaide may be overestimated and conversely Geelong underestimated due to the model currently being unable to factor in the impact the Dangerfield trade may have.


2015 Forecast for comparison, a fairly accurate result in the end:

 

[Footy Matt]

What's with the Geelong love?

Pre-trade period they were dropping out of the 8. Now I see posts with them finishing first and second.

 

[Tulip]

Forecast model output extracted from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet:

View attachment 189381

Some caveats regarding this output:

Forecast is based on statistical probability so fails to predict "upsets" and thus skews towards top teams winning more games than actual end of season result, however based on previous year runs of the model ladder positions are sound.

Adelaide may be overestimated and conversely Geelong underestimated due to the model currently being unable to factor in the impact the Dangerfield trade may have.


2015 Forecast for comparison, a fairly accurate result in the end:

View attachment 189382

Can you explain to me here how we have four wins and St Kilda eight? Not sure I understand the mechanism.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

15. Essendon (7-15, 79.8%): Hird's departure is a big plus, but their list is in no shape to challenge for finals. I'd consider them fortunate to get seven wins.

This same team played in finals in 2014 yeah the team was off to a flyer,Wada appealed and it was curtains for the year plus having our midfield and ruck injured all year didn't help.

 

[Dylan82]

To cut through a heap of statistical nerdery it basically works via scoring averages (Team 1 For + Team 2 Against etc) and then modulating them with a factor for a set of common available stats (disposals, In50s etc...), and then using that against opposition strength and travel weightings.

Outputs for the last 6 matches and last 22 matches are then blended to provide "form" whilst rewarding consistency.

St Kilda has modelled wins for rounds 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 17, 20 & 23.
Melbourne has modelled wins for rounds 2, 9, 19 & 22.

St Kilda have a far more favourable fixture this coming season than Melbourne.

 

[Gumby2Hurley]

Adelaide finish top 8 despite their coach being horribly stabbed in his sleep by his smackfaced son and win a final and are now being rated as bottom 4 by a lot of posters?

Yeah I get that Dangerfield was a loss... Not many people can see past his 1 or 2 flashy highlights per game to see that of his 26 touches a game, close to half of them dont hit a target. In 2014, he was top 3 for contested ball, but of the top 100 contested ball players in the AFL, he sat around 95th when ranked for disposal efficiency... I dont think he will be that bigger loss, and over their careers I think Brad Crouch will prove to be the less flashy, more valuable player.

Recruiting Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel means Adelaides 3 list cloggers in Wright, VB and MacKay wont play as much if at all.

Cant see Adelaides forward line which averaged over 100 points a game in 2015 failing, especially with Menzel added.

1. Hawthorn
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Sydney
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Richmond
7. GWS
8. Collingwood
9. North Melbourne
10. Fremantle
11. Port
12. Geelong
13. Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. Essendon

Not going to point out everything, however the Power and Cats to finish lower with their star recruits than what they finished in 2015? Don't see that happening.

I understand you might think Essendon will cop bans and finish last, but what does Carlton have that the Lions and Suns don't have? They'll finish above Carlton easily.

 

[Lsta062]

Adelaide finish top 8 despite their coach being horribly stabbed in his sleep by his smackfaced son and win a final and are now being rated as bottom 4 by a lot of posters?

Yeah I get that Dangerfield was a loss... Not many people can see past his 1 or 2 flashy highlights per game to see that of his 26 touches a game, close to half of them dont hit a target. In 2014, he was top 3 for contested ball, but of the top 100 contested ball players in the AFL, he sat around 95th when ranked for disposal efficiency... I dont think he will be that bigger loss, and over their careers I think Brad Crouch will prove to be the less flashy, more valuable player.

Recruiting Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel means Adelaides 3 list cloggers in Wright, VB and MacKay wont play as much if at all.

Cant see Adelaides forward line which averaged over 100 points a game in 2015 failing, especially with Menzel added.

1. Hawthorn
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Sydney
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Richmond
7. GWS
8. Collingwood
9. North Melbourne
10. Fremantle
11. Port
12. Geelong
13. Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. Essendon

It is more to do with a tough fixture killing their confidence early as well as the loss of Dangerfield. A team's confidence being killed early could result in them believing they are no longer good, resulting in the team actually not being good.

You are right, Adelaide does have a strong forward line (probably one of the strongest forward line in the league), which is why the bottom-4 prediction that many (including me) have done probably won't come to fruition.

 

[Tiger71]

As much as I hate this, I think Hawthorn can/will get 4 in a row. This is my ladder and finals prediction.

That was awesome. One thing that struck me is how shit is the WC and Giants songs! lol. its like the those two clubs have said they want a song that gives the nails on a white board feeling....truly bad lol

 

[Tiger71]

Forecast model output extracted from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet:

View attachment 189381

Some caveats regarding this output:

Forecast is based on statistical probability so fails to predict "upsets" and thus skews towards top teams winning more games than actual end of season result, however based on previous year runs of the model ladder positions are sound.

Adelaide may be overestimated and conversely Geelong underestimated due to the model currently being unable to factor in the impact the Dangerfield trade may have.


2015 Forecast for comparison, a fairly accurate result in the end:

View attachment 189382

Hmm, if its based on previous year, I am assuming season just past? how can the tigers finish 9th when those we double up against next year, we went 7-0 wins against this year ?

 

[La Vache]

1. Hawthorn
2. Bulldogs
3. WCE
4. Sydney
5. NM
6. Giants
7. Richmond
8. Melbourne

9. Adelaide
10. Fremantle
11. Geelong
12. Port
13. Suns
14. Essendon
15. St Kilda
16. Collingwood
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

 

[JD Tomahawk]

1. Port Adelaide
2. West Coast
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Geelong
6. GWS
7. North Melbourne
8. Richmond

9. Fremantle
10. Sydney
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Adelaide
13. Gold Coast
14. St Kilda
15. Essendon
16. Melbourne
17. Brisbane
18. University
19. Narre Warren U/9's
20. Carlton

 

[shotgun_blues]

1. Hawthorn (in 4 the whinging defeating a non-Vic team at GF again)
2. West Coast
3. Adelaide
4. Port Adelaide
5. GWS Giants
6. Gold Coast
7. Brisbane
8. Fremantle
-----------------
9. Richmond
10. Collingwood
11. Western Bulldogs
12. North Melbourne
13. St Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Essendon
16. Geelong
17. Sydney
18. Talbot 3rds
19. Forest Lake Falcons (defunct)
20. Dimboola U/13 girls B-Div side
21. Auskick All-Stars
22. Reynalla Special School
23. Star Wars Robots
24. Inanimate Carbon Rod
25. Carlton

 

[MIKE85]

With Freo's draw, there is absolutely no chance they won't make the 8, they will likely still make top 4.

 

[Kildonan]

Forecast model output extracted from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet:

View attachment 189381

Some caveats regarding this output:

Forecast is based on statistical probability so fails to predict "upsets" and thus skews towards top teams winning more games than actual end of season result, however based on previous year runs of the model ladder positions are sound.

Adelaide may be overestimated and conversely Geelong underestimated due to the model currently being unable to factor in the impact the Dangerfield trade may have.


2015 Forecast for comparison, a fairly accurate result in the end:

View attachment 189382

While I am impressed with the amount of work you put in that, I am of the opinion that 2016 will be an even closer competition than 2015 with most of the lower half of the ladder winning 6 to 10 matches and the top 4 teams winning less than 17 matches

 

[Giant Pete]

1. Hawthorn (in 4 the whinging defeating a non-Vic team at GF again)
2. West Coast
3. Adelaide
4. Port Adelaide
5. GWS Giants
6. Gold Coast
7. Brisbane
8. Fremantle
-----------------
9. Richmond
10. Collingwood
11. Western Bulldogs
12. North Melbourne
13. St Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Essendon
16. Geelong
17. Sydney
18. Talbot 3rds
19. Forest Lake Falcons (defunct)
20. Dimboola U/13 girls B-Div side
21. Auskick All-Stars
22. Reynalla Special School
23. Star Wars Robots
24. Inanimate Carbon Rod
25. Carlton

We won't finish that high

 

[ok.crows]

People see improvement in other clubs around the same mark but can't see where the improvement will come from Adelaide.

Compared with this year the best 22 next year will likely see the following changes from the Crows finals team this year:

OUT: Dangerfield, VB, Mackay, Atkins, Cheney
IN: Brad Crouch, Seedsman, Troy Menzel, Otten, Jaensch

Now in terms of hype Brad Crouch gets nowhere near the hype that Dangerfield does, but in terms of on-field effectiveness:

http://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompare...PlayerName4=&Compare=Compare&SelectedPlayers=

... there isn't all that much in it.

The other four changes all have a very good chance of being positives.

In other points of improvement over the 2015 season I would say it will be a big advantage if the coach doesn't die mid-season and if the Crows get to play the same number of matches as all the other teams.

 

[ok.crows]

It is more to do with a tough fixture killing their confidence early as well as the loss of Dangerfield. A team's confidence being killed early could result in them believing they are no longer good, resulting in the team actually not being good.

The early fixture for Adelaide in 2016 is: North, Port, Richmond, Sydney, Hawks, Freo, Bulldogs, Cats. It looks tough, but last season Crows won at least one game against four of those clubs.

If the Crows can go into the round 9 match with a 4-4 record (and sit somewhere mid-table) they then have a pretty good run through to round 19. They could well have built up a lot of confidence and momentum by that time.

 

[Papa G]

Adelaide finish top 8 despite their coach being horribly stabbed in his sleep by his smackfaced son and win a final and are now being rated as bottom 4 by a lot of posters?

Yeah I get that Dangerfield was a loss... Not many people can see past his 1 or 2 flashy highlights per game to see that of his 26 touches a game, close to half of them dont hit a target. In 2014, he was top 3 for contested ball, but of the top 100 contested ball players in the AFL, he sat around 95th when ranked for disposal efficiency... I dont think he will be that bigger loss, and over their careers I think Brad Crouch will prove to be the less flashy, more valuable player.

Recruiting Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel means Adelaides 3 list cloggers in Wright, VB and MacKay wont play as much if at all.

Cant see Adelaides forward line which averaged over 100 points a game in 2015 failing, especially with Menzel added.

1. Hawthorn
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Sydney
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Richmond
7. GWS
8. Collingwood
9. North Melbourne
10. Fremantle
11. Port
12. Geelong
13. Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. Essendon

Because you have replaced your list cloggers with list cloggers, you've lost your best player, you have a rookie coach and an extremely difficult fixture.

Virtually nobody has you bottom 4 by the way.

You bitch about people not rating the Crows but then you go and place Freo, Port and Geelong 10th 11th and 12th. Take a look in the mirror young lady.