Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[RedFury]

Either of them? HB: Touhy, Weitering, Who? (Byrne)
The post was in response to a poster who said isn't this a good side and had a list of Byrne, Plowman, Casboult, Glass-Mckasker, Prestia, Ainsworth, Sumner and a few others. Anyone who does not support Carlton would look at that list and laugh as two of the players don't even play for us, two of them are yet to debut for Carlton, one of them has never played AFL, one has played one game and two of them are still in the TAC cup. This is not a good side.

It was just a cheap, playful dig at the fact that you didn't spell either name correctly, that's all.

Oh and it's Tuohy.

 

[Blues90]

We still need a key forward... Mckay is a ruck/forward curnow a mid/fwd silvagni a medium forward i think we do everything we can to get josh battle will be a gun and will have a good future fwd line get another first rounder with maybe trading of picks to get a gun player in or another young gun mid

 

[JustaBattler]

In all honesty I would out Tuohy on the market. I think he's overrated and would fetch something decent at the trade table. And I think we can replace him with Sheehan. That's the key.

I'd definitely try and trade Everitt.

And you always see if there's any decent interest in Casboult. Someone mentioned Redpath. If you can get Redpath for a third rounder and you offload Casboult for a second rounder that's a win IMO.

Well according to AFL Coaches votes Tuohy is our best defender - which is why " he might fetch something decent at the trade table "
Now leaving aside the fact that he has been so good for us in dark times, fits the age/experience profile we lack perfectly and is a mentor to Sheehan and Byrne - I can't see the club tossing him into a trade...

As for Everitt he is another Malthouse pick who fortuntely has performed pretty well for us since arrival - I say that in context of a decent 2015 - when the side was just rubbish. This year the standards seem to be rising and his form hasn't been particularly inspiring - insipid is the word that comes to mind - last week he played like one of those conditional players no one wants running around in the side - perhaps he copped an injury during the game and bravely played on. Jury is out maybe.

Casboult discussion better left for the day we have 2-3 other talls in forward line to choose from - because right now we have NO ONE else who does the hard yards and cops the best defenders week in week out - as well as some of the worst delivery one could imagine.

 

[Coops93]

Is McKay a ruck/forward though? I thought he was drafted to be a pure key forward.

I don't really rate ruck/forwards tbf. The only half decent one I can think of is Tippett. Even he is inconsistent with his goal scoring.

 

[LanceRomance]

We still need a key forward... Mckay is a ruck/forward curnow a mid/fwd silvagni a medium forward i think we do everything we can to get josh battle will be a gun and will have a good future fwd line get another first rounder with maybe trading of picks to get a gun player in or another young gun mid

McKay is a forward Forward

 

[MrsEddieBetts]

Pretty sure McKay has played ruck before

 

[slashin_velvet]

Pretty sure McKay has played ruck before

Almost every tall would have been given a run in the ruck at some point. We recruited him as a forward.

 

[HBF]

Pretty sure McKay has played ruck before

Yep.
Went there a bit last year for the Power.

 

[Coops93]

Yep.
Went there a bit last year for the Power.

Surely that isn't the role we've drafted him to play though?

Edit: Drafted him to play forward only. not ruck/forward

 

[HBF]

Surely that isn't the role we've drafted him to play though?

Edit: Drafted him to play forward only. not ruck/forward

Correct.
Doubt we'd use him there at all. But its good to know we can throw him in there for 5 minutes to mix things up if he needs to get into the game.

 

[Quazza]

Pretty sure McKay has played ruck before

imagine him in the centre for the bounce, running in full tilt against Mumford......

I'm not sure we'd ever see him again

 

[Dramoth]

Thing is, he's already on silly money as it is.

If barracking for the club was important to him, he would of jumped ship when we came calling the last time.

Maybe he is one of these guys who believes in honouring his contract. It's a rather strange concept that a lot of modern footballers don't seem to share.

 

[thylacine60]

Well according to AFL Coaches votes Tuohy is our best defender - which is why " he might fetch something decent at the trade table "
Now leaving aside the fact that he has been so good for us in dark times, fits the age/experience profile we lack perfectly and is a mentor to Sheehan and Byrne - I can't see the club tossing him into a trade...

As for Everitt he is another Malthouse pick who fortuntely has performed pretty well for us since arrival - I say that in context of a decent 2015 - when the side was just rubbish. This year the standards seem to be rising and his form hasn't been particularly inspiring - insipid is the word that comes to mind - last week he played like one of those conditional players no one wants running around in the side - perhaps he copped an injury during the game and bravely played on. Jury is out maybe.

Casboult discussion better left for the day we have 2-3 other talls in forward line to choose from - because right now we have NO ONE else who does the hard yards and cops the best defenders week in week out - as well as some of the worst delivery one could imagine.

Can you pull back on the honest appraisals just a tad, JaB?

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Actually been mulling over this for a while, but I'm starting to think that perhaps for the next year or two, we should try resist to keep going with wholesale list changes, and try and bring some stability to our playing list.

We've had a lot of turnover in the past 3 years, bought in a mixed bag of players from other clubs and kids. Think maybe we should try and work with what we have (in addition to trying to find a reliable KPF and small towards and more pacey midfields)

Suspect this will be Army's final season (and sadly probably Simmo and possibly Rowe's)

Unless we can jag Tomlinson or maybe Prestia (provided its not our first rounder) I don't really think we need to do much trading. Rumours of Lachie Neale wanting to move to a Vic club, but he'd cost too much and Freo are a pain to deal with.

What the coaching staff and fans need is patience, this season so far is panning out much what I expected (I was pleased with the effort against a rampaging Sydney team, the club I picked preseason to win the flag)

Its always going to take time for a whole new coaching regime and playing list to gel. I honestly think we'll be a much more competitive side and win more games in the second half of the season.

Hopefully Byrne lights it up on Saturday night, I think he could be a gem

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'm of the opposite opinion actually, I think we need one more year of major list changes. From there, tinkering can take place. This is my ideal trade period.

Carlton finishes, for arguments sake - 17th. We end up with picks #2, #21, #40, #58 (taking into account of a few FA compo picks)

The m-o, two top 10 first rounders (per the Schmurf rumour) and as many high picks as possible besides that.

Gold Coast have two First Rounders - their own and Melbournes(??)
GWS have three First Rounders - their own and Collingwood & Geelongs.

Lets say for arguments sake that;
GC have picks - #8 (melb) and pick #11(their own)
GWS have picks - #7 (Coll) and pick #12 (their own) and #14 (Geel)

That's where we need to be targetting for high draft picks. Both expansion clubs have highly rated Academy kids and will be looking to secure very high picks and a multitude of second rounders in pursuit of that.

TRADE 1
Carlton 2017 Future First Rounder - GWS Picks #7 and #14

Carlton trades their future first round pick from 2017 to GWS for their highest and lowest first rounder. GWS realise that these picks will likely be eaten up by Academy players when they get the inevitable early bid, rather than lose value on these picks they mortgage them off for Carlton's 2017 first pick banking on Carlton finishing low again and getting another gun kid to spread the age profile. Carlton secures two first round picks in an effort to tighten their age profile and hope to get value for money banking on an improved 2017 season.

Issues with this trade, GWS may not bite on this deal as it is, there is always the possibility that Carlton pushes high enough up the ladder to mean that GWS trade two picks for a pick lower than the highest they gave up. Possible ways to sweeten this trade, include Carlton's #21 which GWS will want for points on Academy players. This will definitely look tantalizing for GWS and they'll have to pull the trigger. Carlton could even as for Tomlinson here as well.

Carlton now has;
Best Case Scenario- #2, #7, #14, #21, #40 and #58
Worst Case Scenario - #2, #7, #14, #40 and #58

Now that nets us two top 10 picks, and #14 and depending on how hard GWS play we may have pick #21 still in play as well.

If we give up pick #21 I think we have to call it there on the draft pick aquisition, the player trade market could be teased out, with #14 being a very valuable carrot to dangle out there.

However should we keep #21 I believe it's time to go for the jugular witb Gold Coast

TRADE 2
Carlton Casboult/Everitt/X Player - Whoever's 2nd Round Picks

This is the hardest trade to visualise and pull off, Casboult to a Fremantle/Brisbane/Melbourne could be a way to make this happen, GC might want Everitt as a piece to their puzzle, or perhaps a player like Whiley, Lamb, or anyone really who plays a few good games this year and we can get some value on them. Pick #40 can be thrown in here to sweeten the deal, if we're targetting a pick like #27 it shouldnt be too hard to get with a player alone or a player and #40.

The aim of the game is to get another second rounder, thats all we need, if we do that, we'll be golden.

TRADE 3
Carlton #21 and 2nd Round Pick (Result of Trade 2) - Gold Coast for #8

Gold Coast's #8 will be eaten up here by an academy bid making it almost worthless, instead they'll be looking to trade down, last year we saw the ease with which clubs traded two second round picks for high first rounders, this deal is simple and a win for both parties.

Carlton finishes up with picks #2, #7, #8, #14, #40, #58

By adding four first round draft picks to the list we turn over the list, tighten the age profile and look to improve in 2017. The majority of our team, close to 35 players will sit in the 18-24 year old bracket ranging from fresh faced draftees through last years crop, to Boekhurst and Cripps and up to Docherty. Combined with an experienced brigade of Touhy, Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, E. Curnow etc we will have a list that can jump up the ladder quickly into finals contention.

Dont be afraid of missing out on a first round pick in 2017 and putting all our eggs into one basket as we can always trade a 2018 second rounder and 2017 second rounder for a 2017 first rounder from an Academy/FS club. However after this offseason we begin to turn the list over less, bringing in 3 kids each year, with hopefully one very solid kid. Look to hit Free Agency from there and we have the makings of a premiership side.

 

[Coops93]

I'm of the opposite opinion actually, I think we need one more year of major list changes. From there, tinkering can take place. This is my ideal trade period.

Carlton finishes, for arguments sake - 17th. We end up with picks #2, #21, #40, #58 (taking into account of a few FA compo picks)

The m-o, two top 10 first rounders (per the Schmurf rumour) and as many high picks as possible besides that.

Gold Coast have two First Rounders - their own and Melbournes(??)
GWS have three First Rounders - their own and Collingwood & Geelongs.

Lets say for arguments sake that;
GC have picks - #8 (melb) and pick #11(their own)
GWS have picks - #7 (Coll) and pick #12 (their own) and #14 (Geel)

That's where we need to be targetting for high draft picks. Both expansion clubs have highly rated Academy kids and will be looking to secure very high picks and a multitude of second rounders in pursuit of that.

TRADE 1
Carlton 2017 Future First Rounder - GWS Picks #7 and #14

Carlton trades their future first round pick from 2017 to GWS for their highest and lowest first rounder. GWS realise that these picks will likely be eaten up by Academy players when they get the inevitable early bid, rather than lose value on these picks they mortgage them off for Carlton's 2017 first pick banking on Carlton finishing low again and getting another gun kid to spread the age profile. Carlton secures two first round picks in an effort to tighten their age profile and hope to get value for money banking on an improved 2017 season.

Issues with this trade, GWS may not bite on this deal as it is, there is always the possibility that Carlton pushes high enough up the ladder to mean that GWS trade two picks for a pick lower than the highest they gave up. Possible ways to sweeten this trade, include Carlton's #21 which GWS will want for points on Academy players. This will definitely look tantalizing for GWS and they'll have to pull the trigger. Carlton could even as for Tomlinson here as well.

Carlton now has;
Best Case Scenario- #2, #7, #14, #21, #40 and #58
Worst Case Scenario - #2, #7, #14, #40 and #58

Now that nets us two top 10 picks, and #14 and depending on how hard GWS play we may have pick #21 still in play as well.

If we give up pick #21 I think we have to call it there on the draft pick aquisition, the player trade market could be teased out, with #14 being a very valuable carrot to dangle out there.

However should we keep #21 I believe it's time to go for the jugular witb Gold Coast

TRADE 2
Carlton Casboult/Everitt/X Player - Whoever's 2nd Round Picks

This is the hardest trade to visualise and pull off, Casboult to a Fremantle/Brisbane/Melbourne could be a way to make this happen, GC might want Everitt as a piece to their puzzle, or perhaps a player like Whiley, Lamb, or anyone really who plays a few good games this year and we can get some value on them. Pick #40 can be thrown in here to sweeten the deal, if we're targetting a pick like #27 it shouldnt be too hard to get with a player alone or a player and #40.

The aim of the game is to get another second rounder, thats all we need, if we do that, we'll be golden.

TRADE 3
Carlton #21 and 2nd Round Pick (Result of Trade 2) - Gold Coast for #8

Gold Coast's #8 will be eaten up here by an academy bid making it almost worthless, instead they'll be looking to trade down, last year we saw the ease with which clubs traded two second round picks for high first rounders, this deal is simple and a win for both parties.

Carlton finishes up with picks #2, #7, #8, #14, #40, #58

By adding four first round draft picks to the list we turn over the list, tighten the age profile and look to improve in 2017. The majority of our team, close to 35 players will sit in the 18-24 year old bracket ranging from fresh faced draftees through last years crop, to Boekhurst and Cripps and up to Docherty. Combined with an experienced brigade of Touhy, Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, E. Curnow etc we will have a list that can jump up the ladder quickly into finals contention.

Dont be afraid of missing out on a first round pick in 2017 and putting all our eggs into one basket as we can always trade a 2018 second rounder and 2017 second rounder for a 2017 first rounder from an Academy/FS club. However after this offseason we begin to turn the list over less, bringing in 3 kids each year, with hopefully one very solid kid. Look to hit Free Agency from there and we have the makings of a premiership side.

Unfortunately the only way I see us getting to first round picks is by trading #2. Then the question of value comes into it. I don't know much about this draft, and I stand to be corrected, but my understanding is that there is a lack of elite/top end talent, there is more depth than last year. So perhaps it might be a good year to trade 2 for a couple mid first rounders.

 

[BluesRule]

Tough discussion - but list turnover is going to happen as Army, Simmo, Walker, Wood(r), Jamo, Daisy? and Everitt will need to go in the next couple of years due to age/injuries limiting output. Some players need to show something like Jones, Tutt, Whiley, White, Rowe, Dick, Sheehan, etc. or be replaced with new developing players with more upside. Others will also be weeded out.

I expect 10+ player changes in 2016 and I really hope a few guys improve to remain professional AFL players at CFC.

 

[Jeremias]

I think it would be a case of smart list management if we were able to convert our first pick to two inside the top 10. I'd be more than happy for the club to do that with any pick other than pick 1 which I'd hold on to.

Two picks inside the top 10 would open up a number of very favorable opportunities for us. Either we'd be able to hit the top end of the draft hard for a 2nd year in a row, or we'd be able to explore the possibility of trading one of those picks for someone like Prestia who may look to come home at the end of the year.

Either result would be terrific for the club IMO.

 

[HARKER]

Actually been mulling over this for a while, but I'm starting to think that perhaps for the next year or two, we should try resist to keep going with wholesale list changes, and try and bring some stability to our playing list.

We've had a lot of turnover in the past 3 years, bought in a mixed bag of players from other clubs and kids. Think maybe we should try and work with what we have (in addition to trying to find a reliable KPF and small towards and more pacey midfields)

Suspect this will be Army's final season (and sadly probably Simmo and possibly Rowe's)

Unless we can jag Tomlinson or maybe Prestia (provided its not our first rounder) I don't really think we need to do much trading. Rumours of Lachie Neale wanting to move to a Vic club, but he'd cost too much and Freo are a pain to deal with.

What the coaching staff and fans need is patience, this season so far is panning out much what I expected (I was pleased with the effort against a rampaging Sydney team, the club I picked preseason to win the flag)

Its always going to take time for a whole new coaching regime and playing list to gel. I honestly think we'll be a much more competitive side and win more games in the second half of the season.

Hopefully Byrne lights it up on Saturday night, I think he could be a gem

Not going to happen and almost can't happen. 8 would be the minimum but we're not going to get to 15 this year.

I'd bank on ~ 10 changes all up.

 

[JustaBattler]

Can you pull back on the honest appraisals just a tad, JaB?

dishonesty preferred - surely not!

 

[Blue__Balls]

Gone and At Risk

Simpson (ret) - almost 32 now, disposal looking a bit shaky and plenty of depth on the list at HB, let him go on his terms though
Jamison (ret) - can't see the body giving him another year
Armfield (ret) - too many young blokes filling his role now, hopefully offered a VFL coaching gig
Wood (del) - or retired, take your pick, don't think he'll be picked up by anyone else though
Walker (ret) - not too old that he couldn't keep playing, but it all comes down to fitness
Dick (del) - looks capable at VFL level, but not demanding senior selection
Sheehan (del) - if he can't get the body right this year, I think we may have to let him go, 4 career games at 26yo isn't great
Gowers (del) - unsighted at senior level, churn and burn for midfield rookies

Beyond that, Everitt should be offered up for trade (GC).

The following year we'd likely be wanting to remove Daisy, Rowe, White, Tutt, Jones and any of the recent draftees/recruits who aren't delivering (Smith, DVR, Gorringe, Lamb).

So 9 changes at the end of this year, 6-8 next year pending form.

2016: Trading our first pick for two top 10 picks, plus some trading up of later picks to academy clubs, should see us go into the draft with 4 in the top 25, plus one or two late picks. Say we take 5 at the draft, 3 rookies, and one "steak-knives player" or free agent.

 

[DangerousD]

It was just a cheap, playful dig at the fact that you didn't spell either name correctly, that's all.

Oh and it's Tuohy.

hahahahaha way over my head, and here i was getting all defensive. Cheers

 

[Omega Blue]

I'd like to see simo and jamo keep going.
They both provide invaluable leadership.
I could see simo doing well on the hff or wing of he's considered a liability in the Backline (which I'm not convinced he is)
Jamo would be very effective as a third tall or loose man in defense.
Only my opinion tho

 

[DangerousD]

Actually been mulling over this for a while, but I'm starting to think that perhaps for the next year or two, we should try resist to keep going with wholesale list changes, and try and bring some stability to our playing list.

We've had a lot of turnover in the past 3 years, bought in a mixed bag of players from other clubs and kids. Think maybe we should try and work with what we have (in addition to trying to find a reliable KPF and small towards and more pacey midfields)

Suspect this will be Army's final season (and sadly probably Simmo and possibly Rowe's)

Unless we can jag Tomlinson or maybe Prestia (provided its not our first rounder) I don't really think we need to do much trading. Rumours of Lachie Neale wanting to move to a Vic club, but he'd cost too much and Freo are a pain to deal with.

What the coaching staff and fans need is patience, this season so far is panning out much what I expected (I was pleased with the effort against a rampaging Sydney team, the club I picked preseason to win the flag)

Its always going to take time for a whole new coaching regime and playing list to gel. I honestly think we'll be a much more competitive side and win more games in the second half of the season.

Hopefully Byrne lights it up on Saturday night, I think he could be a gem

I don't thin teams ever do a major list turn over for the sake of it. At the end of the year if Bolton and the team think they need to do a mass clean out then so be it, i am backing the people we have in place to make these calls and am prepared for a bit of paon.

 

[Malifice]

Carlton finishes, for arguments sake - 17th. We end up with picks #2, #21, #40, #58 (taking into account of a few FA compo picks)

There will be a couple of academy selections in there as well pushing the 2nd round picks out. And we are a monty to get an end of 1st round PP if we finish 2nd last with 4 wins. Also, we have the Dogs third rounder.

#2, #21, #23 #43, #51, #61

Id be all up for trading #23 and (Touhy/ Levi) for a pick around #10. Its a 500 point upgrade and fair. I'd then consider trading #2 for two first rounders from GWS (they'll likely have four 1st round picks, and can use #2 on a player, and still have one 1st rounder to snare an academy boy) - say Picks #6 and #12. We then trade #43, 51 and 61 to a club that needs extra academy or F/S points for a single pick around pick #30.

Hit the draft with #6, #10, #12, #21, #30.

Would also consider trading Gibbs for either a top 5 pick this year, or two late first round picks (either this year or next).