2016 trade hypotheticals

[MightyDons4]

Sure.

Don't mind me as I wait for another clubs supporter to say that they would be happy with this.

Would give that up for McCarthy in a heartbeat.

 

[raffrox]

Would give that up for McCarthy in a heartbeat.

Boooooooo.

Really? A pick between 10 and 17 for McCarthy? Nuts.

 

[Ants]

Do you genuinely believe that a team (any team) would give a pick between pick 10 and 17 for McCarthy now?

If so, is there anyone else on this board that would agree with their team giving up a pick between 10 and 17 for McCarthy? Anybody?

If McCarthy wanted to come and passed his medical, I'd give up #19 for him in a heartbeat.

Freo are holding the cards here.
They can walk him into the PSD and no way bombers of Lions gamble on him.

GWS will get an ordinary pick or nothing IMO.

And ignoring the fact he's contracted, if he was there in the PSD I'd take him in a heartbeat there too!

 

[raffrox]

If McCarthy wanted to come and passed his medical, I'd give up #19 for him in a heartbeat.

And ignoring the fact he's contracted, if he was there in the PSD I'd take him in a heartbeat there too!

The talk on the town regarding McCarthy's current conditioning and training would see me being pretty worried if Freo did something similar.

 

[Ants]

The talk on the town regarding McCarthy's current conditioning and training would see me being pretty worried if Freo did something similar.

Your call. I'd be saying we were getting a top 10 pick talent who showed his potential is real, and just have to pretend like its his first year in the AFL. So no expectations on him to hit the ground running.

But isn't it odd that all the people talking his price down seem to be Fremantle supporters....

 

[MightyDons4]

Boooooooo.

Really? A pick between 10 and 17 for McCarthy? Nuts.

Absolutely.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Your call. I'd be saying we were getting a top 10 pick talent who showed his potential is real, and just have to pretend like its his first year in the AFL. So no expectations on him to hit the ground running.

But isn't it odd that all the people talking his price down seem to be Fremantle supporters....

Exactly right. if the Dogs didn't have Boyd and he was a melb lad id give up a say pick in the teens for him.

 

[Glen Buterol]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

 

[Roadto2018]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

You'd think so wouldn't you

 

[Kingofthehill]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

You know convincing fellow St Kilda supporters that Hurley's value has declined won't change the view of list managers?
Comparing Hurley to Mitch Clarke is offensive to Mitch Clarke and all he's been through.
As for the rubbish to come out of Freo to pick up McCarthy cheap.
There is not one club in the AFL that wouldn't jump at Hurley. If he was to go it'd be for a fair price.

Anyway, he's staying.

 

[DHepp21]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

Ok. We'll take him then.

 

[adammania9]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

Unfortunately logic doesn't apply to Essendon according to their supporters

 

[Vindicater]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

I think a year off is overblown. Players have a year off due to serious injury and get right back into it once they are cleared. The players will come good (The Bombers and McCarthy)

As for Mitch Clarke there were ALOT more factors going into why his value went down.

 

[Vindicater]

As for value, my thoughts are.

Hurley Pick 5-10
Hibberd Pick 20-25
McCarthy Pick 15-20

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

More importantly, how will they go without the Dank program? The players you're talking about weren't very good prior to 2012.

 

[ronnysnodgrass]

As for value, my thoughts are.

Hurley Pick 5-10
Hibberd Pick 20-25
McCarthy Pick 15-20

I agree with these values.

I think if Saints end up with pick 8 and he choses to leave and choses to nominate saints (lots of ifs there) then a deal for pick 8 would be done quickly.

Other scenarios (assuming all the ifs) are saints trade 2017 first to GWS for Steele and a late first back.

Saints trade 8 and late first to bombers for Hurley and ideally 19 (but if pushed the second rounder bombers likely get for hibberd)

Bombers get two first rounders (lose Hurley + Hibbered)
Saints get Hurley, Steele and either 19 or 26ish (lose 2016 + 2017 Firsts)
GWS get 2017 first rounder for academy (lose Steele + late first)

 

[Ants]

Thoughts on the value of Essendon players such as Hibberd & Hurley that are coming off 12 month suspensions? Surely their value has diminished with time away from the club and an elite sporting environment? We saw Mitch Clarke's value go down after time away from footy. Cam McCarthy value will likely considerably decline. Surely the suspended Essendon players are in this same category?

Will there be a change in their price? Probably. Will it be material? Probably not. Plenty of players have had serious injury concerns over their heads and still got value. Burgoyne would be a good example.

Clarke is a poor example. In the two years before he left the game he played 11 and 4 games. Any player who has played 15 games in three years due to injury/illness, is going to see their trade price plummet. Same with O'Meara, missing two full years counts against him. The big element here is that there will be concerns over if it will happen again. The concerns over Burgoyne, Clark, and now O'Meara isn't so much what has happened before, but will they be available to play for the new team?

In the case of the Essendon players the driver of missing year won't happen again. So clubs don't have to worry about that. There only concern will be fitness and that shouldn't be any different to any player coming off an injury. Possibly less. Hell, the year off could help some of them (e.g. Myers).


On values, I'd say that Hurley should go for slightly more than Carlisle. So equivalent of #5 + #30 => #36. About 2300 to 2600 points, maybe with some salary cap relief going back the other way.
Hibberd I would rate at about 900 to 1000 points (#18 to #21).

 

[WilloTree]

Dockers give: Pick 3, 3rd round pick 2017
Giants give: Pick 8 (Collingwood), Pick 17 (Giants), McCarthy

Let's value the Dockers' 2017 3rd at Pick 45 (10th on the ladder I think), that values McCarthy at a simple pick 68 however I think both clubs get good wins.

The Giants get to release McCarthy off the cap, get some points for 2017 and they also get Pick 3, guaranteed to be an open selection at this point and would have their choice of an open selection, rather than the highly likely chance of having an academy gun being bid of prior to their first pick (8).

Dockers get a tall forward in McCarthy, downgrade from 3 to 8 based on the risk that either or both of Marshall and English are available, and they get a later pick in the first round to get themselves a tall defender or medium forward or something of need.

Win/win.

Not bad. Did some quick calculations:
Pick 3 and 3rd round + 20% = 3216.
Pick 8 and 17 = 2576.
Value of McCarthy = Pick 30

 

[citizen-erased]

More importantly, how will they go without the Dank program? The players you're talking about weren't very good prior to 2012.

2015 - Hurley was all Australian
2013 - hibberd was close to the squad (so about top 50). And I think he is better now with less injury issues

 

[Mego Red]

2015 - Hurley was all Australian
2013 - hibberd was close to the squad (so about top 50). And I think he is better now with less injury issues

He said "prior".

 

[citizen-erased]

He said "prior".

the program was in place in 2012
By late 2012, it was gone due to a string of injuries that derailed our season (we were a shot at top 4)
Prior to 2012, Hibberd plays 9 games off the rookie list. Averaged 19 disposals and 5 marks.
Hurley was playing forward at that time, so a little hard to judge.

 

[Suma Magic]

Not bad. Did some quick calculations:
Pick 3 and 3rd round + 20% = 3216.
Pick 8 and 17 = 2576.
Value of McCarthy = Pick 30

Why add 20% to picks three and the third rounder?

 

[WilloTree]

Why add 20% to picks three and the third rounder?

Academy clubs get 20% bonus on their picks in points.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

 

[Suma Magic]

Academy clubs get 20% bonus on their picks in points.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

That doesn't explain why you have only added the discount to one side of the equation. Especially when they probably wouldn't be able to use the discount for pick 3.

 

[PhoenixBonez]

Not bad. Did some quick calculations:
Pick 3 and 3rd round + 20% = 3216.
Pick 8 and 17 = 2576.
Value of McCarthy = Pick 30

Given pick 3 is unlikely to be used to be used for academy selections this is more like:

Pick 3 and 3rd round (+20% of 3rd rounder) = 2700
Pick 8 and 17 + 20% (as GWS would likely use these picks on academy players) = 3091

So GWS are losing McCarthy and points worth about pick 42.
Plus they need points this year to secure their academy talent.