AFL 2017 - AFL GRAND FINAL

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I'm on castagna, Riewoldt and the Seed for first goal, and bent cockchin for norm smith!!

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I've been doing it every year for the last 5 years, I do it for some fun, it's the only day of the year that I bet, I'm about $2k in front off the back of Lake, Rioli and Johannisen. My aim is to at least get my money back. The smallest collect is Martin @ $225, so a $25 profit.

I start with $200. Today I've had 17 bets.

Players I've got are :

Betts
Brown (this one was a hail mary with the last $20, collect $8600 if he wins and the crows get up by 40+)
Knight
Lever
Lynch
Seedsman
Talia

Caddy
Edwards
Graham
Grigg
Martin
McIntosh
Rance @ both 1-39 and 40+
Vlastuin
Prestia

Adelaide 100+ @ $101

It's $200 I can well afford it, no skin off my nose if none get up.

Just a little win this year, $25. Rance would have given me $280. Oh well, there's always next year.
 
Almost got my Same Game Multi. Damn, so close

M. Crouch most disp (Tick)
Total Points 161-170 (Tick)
Richmond 1-39 Lost
 
Best pressure I've seen in a footy game. Was absolutely ridiculous from Richmond. Proves a star team will always beat a team of stars (Golden State Warriors exempt). They'll be back up in the top 4 next year too, no chance of a hangover.

I'd lay them for top 4. Weak year and one of the worst squads to win a flag I can remember. Once a skilled enough team can handle there pressure they will get cut apart.
 
I'd lay them for top 4. Weak year and one of the worst squads to win a flag I can remember. Once a skilled enough team can handle there pressure they will get cut apart.
so you think there are 4 teams skilled enough to do it?? with 18 teams now, the skill is so far diluted now that there will be no teams with great depth
 
so you think there are 4 teams skilled enough to do it?? with 18 teams now, the skill is so far diluted now that there will be no teams with great depth
Who knows what will happen, but there is a fair chance they follow the lead of the WB who had a clear premiership hangover with some important players like Libba awful for virtually the entire season. Additionally I feel that both WB and Rich won unexpected flags based on innovative game styles that are surely to be copied and studied for next year. Add in 4 weeks less preparation than some teams and a much harder schedule it does make it significantly harder.

Having two weaker teams win unexpected flags means that other weaker teams can theoretically climb the ladder quickly with new game styles or new personnel. This has happened with the top teams getting worse and the virtually all other teams trying to move towards the middle ground.

On the plus side they do have the best player in the league and they essentially thrashed all 3 teams they played in the finals series. Pretty impressive.
 
Im not sure they won it out of turn.For numerous reasons it's just the way the game is evolving
starting last year with the Dogs.i believe the brisbane lions and Hawthorn type dominate era's could be thing of the past.Would not be surprised at all to see another bolter next season.
 
so you think there are 4 teams skilled enough to do it?? with 18 teams now, the skill is so far diluted now that there will be no teams with great depth

I think both Sydney teams do and potentially Hawthorn if they can do a quick bounce - then you just need 2 of the interstate teams to win enough home games and they will challenge for top 4.
 
The tigers will fall off like the bulldogs. I’d be shocked if they won another one the entire time Dusty is there. It’s unkind to say it was a weak year but they had the rails run and everything went right. I can’t see it happening again.
 

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I'd lay them for top 4. Weak year and one of the worst squads to win a flag I can remember. Once a skilled enough team can handle there pressure they will get cut apart.
You also have to look at other teams and think about who can realistically make top 4. GWS is the only team that I can see that are near certain to make top 4 next season. Adelaide would have fallen into that category too but since losing Lever, and possibly Cameron, now not too sure. They should but losing your best defender is massive. That leaves 3 spots for top 4. Who can make it? At the moment IMO it's only Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney and possibly Geelong, but IMO Geelong are going to take a big step back next season and finish 6-8. I think Melbourne will be really good next year too, similar to the rise of Bulldogs and Richmond of the last 2 seasons, also depending on who leaves/stays. So they could make a run. Also could possibly see port too depending on who they pick up. At the present moment, I'd say GWS, Adelaide, Sydney and Richmond top 4 but it's a long way away.
 
You also have to look at other teams and think about who can realistically make top 4. GWS is the only team that I can see that are near certain to make top 4 next season. Adelaide would have fallen into that category too but since losing Lever, and possibly Cameron, now not too sure. They should but losing your best defender is massive. That leaves 3 spots for top 4. Who can make it? At the moment IMO it's only Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney and possibly Geelong, but IMO Geelong are going to take a big step back next season and finish 6-8. I think Melbourne will be really good next year too, similar to the rise of Bulldogs and Richmond of the last 2 seasons, also depending on who leaves/stays. So they could make a run. Also could possibly see port too depending on who they pick up. At the present moment, I'd say GWS, Adelaide, Sydney and Richmond top 4 but it's a long way away.

Geelong stepping back with a Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett midfield? Don’t think so.
 
You also have to look at other teams and think about who can realistically make top 4. GWS is the only team that I can see that are near certain to make top 4 next season. Adelaide would have fallen into that category too but since losing Lever, and possibly Cameron, now not too sure. They should but losing your best defender is massive. That leaves 3 spots for top 4. Who can make it? At the moment IMO it's only Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney and possibly Geelong, but IMO Geelong are going to take a big step back next season and finish 6-8. I think Melbourne will be really good next year too, similar to the rise of Bulldogs and Richmond of the last 2 seasons, also depending on who leaves/stays. So they could make a run. Also could possibly see port too depending on who they pick up. At the present moment, I'd say GWS, Adelaide, Sydney and Richmond top 4 but it's a long way away.
It's tricky to predict because no teams seem to want to bottom out but get better and the better teams are likely to be worse with Ade and GWS looking likely to be losing significant talent. Looks like Port, Ess and Melb picking up talent.

So essentially near impossible to predict next seasons winner.
 

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