2017 Draft thread

[JasRulz63]

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-10-21/your-top-pick-who-will-your-club-draft-first

Pick 1: The Lions have the pick of the bunch and Cameron Rayner seems the most likely option for them to choose. Rayner has had the best season from the top-rung draft prospects, and has shown his explosive, exciting streak in attack and through the midfield. The club has spoken about targeting midfielders and there may be more pure onballers available at No.1 than Rayner, who is likely to start as a forward. But he is a standout and would be a good fit for the Lions – or for anyone for that matter.

Around the mark: Luke Davies-Uniacke, Paddy Dow, Andrew Brayshaw

With our pick 15, I think we need a couple of clubs ahead of us to take KPPs like Brander and Naughton so that a midfield type potentially slides through.

 

[luthor]

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-10-21/your-top-pick-who-will-your-club-draft-first

Pick 1: The Lions have the pick of the bunch and Cameron Rayner seems the most likely option for them to choose. Rayner has had the best season from the top-rung draft prospects, and has shown his explosive, exciting streak in attack and through the midfield. The club has spoken about targeting midfielders and there may be more pure onballers available at No.1 than Rayner, who is likely to start as a forward. But he is a standout and would be a good fit for the Lions – or for anyone for that matter.

 

[JasRulz63]

Brett Anderson: LDU has house in Brisbane

Brett Anderson: Family has house there. Would be easy move.

Brett Anderson: No but have spent time there.

 

[briztoon]

I'm trying to look at the first 20 picks as a whole to see if there is some type of draft strategy which we might use that could influence who we draft and where.

The top two tiers of mids and flankers should be gone within the first 12 picks.
Rayner
LDU
Dow
Cerra
Brayshaw
Stephenson
Coffield
D. Fogarty
Constable
Clark
Higgins

The next tier consists outside flankers and smaller inside mids.
Ling
O'Brien
Garner
L. Fogarty
Bailey

Not sure where Aiden Bonar fits in. He could be drafted top 10 or fall out of the top 20. Bonar won't start as a mid, like Rayner and Darcy Fogarty, he'll start up forward, before building a tank and moving in to the midfield.

We desperately need an inside mid. Or two. And a little more speed out of defence wouldn't go astray. A taller general forward wouldn't go astray either.

 

[SizeMatters]

Bonar fits in at 15 if Clark is drafted before then.

 

[jjami15]

I'm trying to look at the first 20 picks as a whole to see if there is some type of draft strategy which we might use that could influence who we draft and where.

The top two tiers of mids and flankers should be gone within the first 12 picks.
Rayner
LDU
Dow
Cerra
Brayshaw
Stephenson
Coffield
D. Fogarty
Constable
Clark
Higgins

The next tier consists outside flankers and smaller inside mids.
Ling
O'Brien
Garner
L. Fogarty
Bailey

Not sure where Aiden Bonar fits in. He could be drafted top 10 or fall out of the top 20. Bonar won't start as a mid, like Rayner and Darcy Fogarty, he'll start up forward, before building a tank and moving in to the midfield.

We desperately need an inside mid. Or two. And a little more speed out of defence wouldn't go astray. A taller general forward wouldn't go astray either.

There is usually one or two who pop up earlier than expected and some sliders on draft night and I seriously hope that this is the case. Long way out but I'll have a crack at the first round.
Lions - LDU (would really like to see his contested numbers through the TACCUP and School footy as this is my only concern from the Natuional champs.)
Freo - Brayshaw (I think they really like this kid and would be a good swap for Weller)
Carlton - Rayner (with pick 10 they'll grab a mid, think of a forward line with him and Curnow running around)
North - Stephenson (not sure about this but increased run is something I think that they would like to get)
Freo - Dow (slid but Freo would be happy to get him)
Pies - Coffield (kicking out of the backline is something they highly rate and need)
Saints - Cerra
Saints - Bonar (two picks in the top ten and I reckon they'll have a punk t here)
Dogs - Clark
Carlton - Constable
GWS - Hayes
Adelaide - Fogarty
West Coast - O'Brien
Richmond - Naish (Swans or West Coast will bid IMO, too good of a player to let slide)
Swans - Brander
Lions - Garner (NFI, just that we need mids and he provides outside run and has a great left foot. Will start as a HBF and most probably stay there but will love being under Hodges tutelage, plus his leadership is another tick)
Dogs - L. Fogarty
Lions - Naughton (most probably goes earlier but intercept marking in the defensive fifty is very important in today's game)
Others I would consider for Lions - Petreculle, Starcevich, Stoddart, Bailey

 

[Roylion]

Our drafting position is pretty good and in my view Noble should be commended on what he's achieved.

The Lions take Picks, 1, 15, 18, 40, 44, 52 to the draft.

They get who they consider to be the best youngster in the country (Rayner probably, but Uniacke-Davies and Dow wouldn't be too far behind), a player that they likely could have got with #12 [Cameron] at #15 and likely another good youngster at #18 (or maybe Ballenden, if a bid comes at #16 or #17).

The whereabouts of a bid on Connor Ballenden will be crucial. If it comes after 18, then as we know Brisbane matches with #40 (gained from Richmond via Schache) and #44. We gain the replacement for Schache, plus gain three other quality youngsters to add to our young squad.

We also then have the flexibility to pick up either two delisted FAs (quite possibly midfielders to add to midfield depth for a couple of years) and/or a couple of speculative youngsters with #52 and wherever #44 ends up after matching a bid for Ballenden (probably late 50s or so.)

Let's hope it goes to script with the placement of the Ballenden bid the key.

 

[POBT]

Can anyone with a handle on the points system please explain to me what happens to our picks if we match a bid for Ballenden at 16 or 17 with pick 18? Does our next pick move up and, if so, to what?

Cheers.

 

[M Malice]

Spot on Roy, the placement of the Ballenden bid is going to shape our draft although I'm sure the clubs give each other a nod and a wink re the possibility of where a bid could come, particularly when you are involved in trading with said club eg. Dogs with Schache, Crows with Cameron and the Tigers with the pick swap.

The team I am worried about bidding on Ballenden is Collingwood, they really need another KPF, maybe they held off on trading for Schache because they see Ballenden as a better prospect. Hopefully using 6 on Ballenden will be seen as too early.

With 15 and 18 I'd be very happy if we got 2 of Hunter Clark, Lochie O'Brien, Aiden Bonar, Charlie Constable.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Can anyone with a handle on the points system please explain to me what happens to our picks if we match a bid for Ballenden at 16 or 17 with pick 18? Does our next pick move up and, if so, to what?

Cheers.

If we matched a bid at pick 16 our pick 18 becomes 16. The residual 131 points would then become a new pick 62 in the draft for us.

The team that bit with 16 now picks at 17, our 18 is gone, the team that had 19 stays there and our 20 stays at 20.

 

[POBT]

If we matched a bid at pick 16 our pick 18 becomes 16. The residual 131 points would then become a new pick 62 in the draft for us.

The team that bit with 16 now picks at 17, our 18 is gone, the team that had 19 stays there and our 20 stays at 20.

Pretty shitty outcome then. Be nice if those leftover points could be added to our next pick to provide an upgrade.

 

[POBT]

It wouldn't surprise me to see us take a tall defender if the mids that we like are all gone at 15/18. It would want to be someone that we really rated though.

 

[TheZork]

I'm trying to look at the first 20 picks as a whole to see if there is some type of draft strategy which we might use that could influence who we draft and where.

The top two tiers of mids and flankers should be gone within the first 12 picks.
Rayner
LDU
Dow
Cerra
Brayshaw
Stephenson
Coffield
D. Fogarty
Constable
Clark
Higgins

The next tier consists outside flankers and smaller inside mids.
Ling
O'Brien
Garner
L. Fogarty
Bailey

Not sure where Aiden Bonar fits in. He could be drafted top 10 or fall out of the top 20. Bonar won't start as a mid, like Rayner and Darcy Fogarty, he'll start up forward, before building a tank and moving in to the midfield.

We desperately need an inside mid. Or two. And a little more speed out of defence wouldn't go astray. A taller general forward wouldn't go astray either.

All it takes though are 3 KPP to be taken in the first 15 and we'll get one of those top 12 mids/flankers. I'd say Brander, Hayes and Naughton are all good chances to be taken before 15.

 

[Roylion]

The team I am worried about bidding on Ballenden is Collingwood, they really need another KPF, maybe they held off on trading for Schache because they see Ballenden as a better prospect. Hopefully using 6 on Ballenden will be seen as too early.

I'd say Collingwood, if they were desperate for a KPF, would go for Jarrod Brander before Ballenden at #6. The Dogs now have Schache so probably wouldn't bid for Ballenden at #9 and would go for Brander instead, if he were still available, and they wanted to add further to their KPF stocks. The Dogs might bid at #16, if they hadn't picked up Brander and any other KPF by that stage. Richmond may also bid at #17. Either way we'd have to match with #18, which in the case of Richmond would drop #18 to about #59 and in the case of the Dogs would drop #18 to about #62. However we'd probably would have picked up another young midfielder at #15, (maybe even the same player we were looking at drafting at #12), so a bid at #16-17 wouldn't be a disaster.

A bid for Ballenden before #14 would be disappointing for us (anywhere between #10-14 we can match with #15 alone). But on the flip-side we'd probably still draft a reasonable youngster with #18.

And once again, maybe a late draft pick at #62 can net us a DFA or a speculative youngster. Sam Collins (23 yo, 194 cm tall defender), Jack Trengove (26 yo midfielder), Zac Clarke (27 yo ruckman), Ben Kennedy (23 year old midfielder/small forward) and Aaron Mullett (25 yo, small rebounding defender) are DFA's who maybe able to offer us something in the short term.

With 15 and 18 I'd be very happy if we got 2 of Hunter Clark, Lochie O'Brien, Aiden Bonar, Charlie Constable.

And with Ballenden picked up later, that would be a very nice draft result for us.

 

[Gadzorks]

Spot on Roy, the placement of the Ballenden bid is going to shape our draft although I'm sure the clubs give each other a nod and a wink re the possibility of where a bid could come, particularly when you are involved in trading with said club eg. Dogs with Schache, Crows with Cameron and the Tigers with the pick swap.

The team I am worried about bidding on Ballenden is Collingwood, they really need another KPF, maybe they held off on trading for Schache because they see Ballenden as a better prospect. Hopefully using 6 on Ballenden will be seen as too early.

With 15 and 18 I'd be very happy if we got 2 of Hunter Clark, Lochie O'Brien, Aiden Bonar, Charlie Constable.

You said pick 6 for ballanden may be seen as too early. Does that mean that there is a way the afl can block him being picked too early or simply thay clubs won't rate him that highly so unlikely to happen?

 

[M Malice]

You said pick 6 for ballanden may be seen as too early. Does that mean that there is a way the afl can block him being picked too early or simply thay clubs won't rate him that highly so unlikely to happen?

The latter. If the pies had their first pick in the 11-14 range I would be more "worried".

 

[luthor]

The latter. If the pies had their first pick in the 11-14 range I would be more "worried".

If they happen to bid on him with their pick 6, we would surely just have to pass wouldn't we?

 

[countryVicLion]

Interesting article from Gary Buckenara
His top 30 very different to what we have been discussing on this thread.

http://bit.ly/2vTWFtK


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[CarterS]

If they happen to bid on him with their pick 6, we would surely just have to pass wouldn't we?

Reluctantly match for me. First round Qld born talent is something I don’t want to see get away.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[MSB ROYS]

If they happen to bid on him with their pick 6, we would surely just have to pass wouldn't we?

The irony would be if Ballenden went to Collingwood and left for the Lions straight after the first contract...

 

[SizeMatters]

Interesting article from Gary Buckenara
His top 30 very different to what we have been discussing on this thread.

http://bit.ly/2vTWFtK


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

look at his previous top 30. He has more misses than hits.

 

[Daniels Riches]

The latter. If the pies had their first pick in the 11-14 range I would be more "worried".

I agree Jpm. After the supporter backlash for trading in Sam Murray this year, there is a lot of pressure on them to nail #6. Would be a huge risk for them to bid on Ballendon that early, whereas pick 14ish would seem to be a bit more realistic.

 

[SizeMatters]

1. Rayner
15. Clark/Bonar
18. O'Brien
XX. Ballenden

I reckon that's a pretty decent draft haul.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

If we matched a bid at pick 16 our pick 18 becomes 16. The residual 131 points would then become a new pick 62 in the draft for us.

The team that bit with 16 now picks at 17, our 18 is gone, the team that had 19 stays there and our 20 stays at 20.

My understanding is a first round bid is a little different when matching with a single pick. We wouldn't get the residual points turned into a pick, but we bank the points for any more bids (no sure If the bank is transferable to the next year)

The Darcy Moore example, Collingwood forfeit 249 points through that mechanism.

 

[briztoon]

If we matched a bid at pick 16 our pick 18 becomes 16. The residual 131 points would then become a new pick 62 in the draft for us.

The team that bit with 16 now picks at 17, our 18 is gone, the team that had 19 stays there and our 20 stays at 20.

I’m not sure if this will hold true for an end of first round compensation pick.

Extra left over points from matching a bid in the first round with a later first round pick do not become a later pick.

They are held over and can be used to help match a bid on another academy player.

This only applies to left over points from first round picks.