List Mgmt. 2017 List Management: Contracts, Trading, Drafting, Academy

[Determinant]

Indeed we do

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-10/injured-giants-defender-signs-on-for-three

There are times when we need a love button, like can be so vanilla

 

[dlanod]

There are times when we need a love button, like can be so vanilla

Uhhh I believe a love button is a thing but not on BF...

 

[Determinant]

Uhhh I believe a love button is a thing but not on BF...

Ok lets do a manly 5 star button then

 

[coniglio_number1]

Or reactions like on Facebook

 

[Andre the Giant]

He (Kennedy) is one of the Pioneers and is well loved by everyone.

The club signing blokes like this who are not the bona fide stars but part of the blue collar fabric that binds a team is so important.

Signing him when he is injured long term and out of contract shows loyalty and character. These are the qualities that make good teams great.

Very impressed with Campbell and Cameron thus far, they have exceeded my expectations. They were right about Taranto and they have steadily signed up most of what we need.

If they can somehow conjure Kelly it will be a slam dunk introduction but if not their work has been very good.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

He's also another one that not a single other club wanted, going completely undrafted in 2010. They talk about our first rounders all the time, completely forgetting that the solid core are not.

 

[Orange Agent]

I think Kenners is very under-rated as a player, some of his games last year were very good.

 

[Vic pokiesmon]

To me Zac Williams is still our most underrated player and could be our best mid in a few years.If Kellyy goes he could partly fill the void.Hopefully with some luck with injuries Setterfield and even Deledio could be added to our mid rotations next year.

While Kennedys form warranted an extension(saw him talking with his parents in a Crown street cafe this weeek) if Zac moves to mids and Shaw ages his backline run becomes more important.

With Devon Smith situation I can't see the cats acquiring both Ablett and Smith.It will be interesting to see how that evolves

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

OK, so a few re-signings have occurred, much speculation & trade hypotheticals on those few who remain unsigned, and the U18 Div 1 Championships start this weekend, so I thought I'd throw down some thoughts about the list & drafting. A long way out from the trade/draft period & much unknown, so I'll try to remain broad with 'options' rather than 'resolutions', with a mixture of my own thoughts & my speculation of what the club might be thinking.

Start with list size: currently 38 on the main list (excluding in-season rookie upgrades) + 6 rookie list (Patfull of course just taking salary). I'd expect the situation to be the same or similar next year, in terms of 38 + 6 (or otherwise + 5 or 7).

Of the rookies, Patfull will come off & I'd expect to keep all of the rest. Reid, Lloyd & Sproule have all been good & are easy retentions - indeed I would have no qualms if any of them were to be put into the main list, with Reid the most deserving. We haven't seen much of Tendai M'zungu yet and I'm not sure how Stein would be graded by the club, but I think the club would be unlikely to cut them after only one year.

In terms of the 44 players, I characterise them as 2 teams of 22 with a formulaic approach (that's my mild OCD kicking in) such as 2 x KPFs + fwd/ruck, 3 x inside mids + 2 inside/outside mids + 2 outside mids etc to take a view of list balance (so my 'best 22' doesn't necessarily conform exactly to how Leon might choose his 22). Players in bold will leave end of 2017, players in italics are OOC at 2017 & at risk of leaving, (R) marks rookies (obviously also OOC at end of 2017 but not italicised) & * marks players OOC in 2018 who might retire (I'm looking at age/output primarily):

Best 22
KPFs: Cameron Patton Lobb
S/M Fwds: Greene Johnson Deledio Smith
R: Mumford*
Mids: Ward Kelly Coniglio Scully Whitfield Griffen* Shiel
S/M Defs: Shaw* Williams Wilson Buntine
KPDs: Davis Tomlinson Haynes

Second 22
Finlayson Sproule(R) Flynn
Taranto Reid(R) Lloyd(R) Tiziani
Simpson Downie
Hopper Setterfield MKennedy de Boer Cumming Mzungu(R)
AKennedy Perryman Stein(R) Patfull(R)
Corr Mohr* Himmelberg

Don't get too caught up on where exactly I've pigeon-holed players, it's just to look at the whole picture. Taranto, for example, I see following a Kelly-like pathway to being a good (hopefully great) inside-outside midfielder; Perryman could be categorised as an inside mid rather than medium defender. The obvious point to make is that the second 22 has that extra ruckman (which I think is needed as a specialised position, just in case) in lieu of a mid.

List assessment: Overall, I don't see too many glaring deficiencies in the list. Sure we'd all like 'more quality' in both best 22 & depth players, but to be honest, GWS is in a pretty good place. I'd definitely say that retaining Kelly, who looks like becoming a 'top 10 in the comp' midfielder is shaping as critical. We are developing replacements for impending departures: Johnson (Taranto initially, but need to then go to draft for longer term), Mumford (Flynn in combo with Lobb, short term Simpson is probably OK), Griffen (Hopper with MKennedy a backup - which entails the obvious risk with those 2 unsigned).

So where we need to look in the draft is mainly as replacement for those expected to step up - specifically a small/medium forward as Johnson's follow on, and with Patfull gone and Shaw's time ticking down (personally, I don't think he'll retire at end of 2018, but with an existing hole in the medium backs the fact that he may retire or degrade sets up an obvious need) a medium defender. The ruck situation has been discussed in these pages so I'll only briefly comment: either the club sees Flynn as a viable long term ruck & trusts he continues to develop, or it will go to the trade period looking to buy a quality replacement for Mumford when it thinks he's done - so the club doctors need to be really honest in their assessment of his capacity beyond next year. I'd still look for one more ruck this year as a Downie replacement just to allow coverage for in season injuries, but a young ruck to develop on the rookie list would be fine (Nathan Richards is the obvious close-to-home candidate, if he can get through without being bid on by any other club).

In short, with the known departures this year, my thought of priorities for the 2017 draft: medium defender, small/medium forward, ruck (rookie list).
There must be a third departure from the main list to allow a third draftee, but I expect that to occur naturally with one of the 5 OOC players leaving. That will provide a need for roughly a like-for-like replacement.

Cogs No1 has analysed GWS' draft position previously: two mid second round picks (from Saints & Pies) & two around 70. Another pick to come from a trade for a departing player.

The GWS academy draftable options include: Jack Powell (mid, small forward - likely early/mid second round), Nick Shipley (tall midfielder, secondary fwd or defender - anywhere from second round to rookie list depending on U18 Championship performance), Nathan Richards (ruck/fwd - anywhere from second round to rookie list depending on U18 Championship performance), Tom Highmore (overage 192cm defender - probably rookie or not drafted) & Brendan Myers (plays inside but has speed, can be mid or back - probably rookie or not drafted).

Of the excluded academy players, who would need to have a live pick used: Jarrod Brander (advertised as a KPF & possible top 5 pick, but being played as a KPD at U18 Champs) & Charlie Spargo (described as 'Toby Greene' like in intensity, a small mid/fwd, originally top 10 but potentially dropping back into second round - will depend on U18 Champs performance) are the most likely. Other possibles are Alex Paech (KPD) & Doulton Langlands (running medium defender).

Looking at possible departures this year, I think that de Boer & Simpson will likely go around again & to be honest are small fry in the overall discussion. The issue centres on the 5 remaining OOC players: Kelly, Smith, Hopper, Matt Kennedy & Himmelberg. The GWS drafting strategy will ultimately rest on who stays & who goes, and what we get for them:

• Kelly: if he goes, we should get a 2017 pick around 4 - 8 from NM or StK. I'd suggest that Setterfield & Taranto are the immediate options for Kelly's role, and that provides some outlet for that pick to be used on best available. Depending on who else leaves, it could be used on best available for their desired replacement. e.g. If Smith also leaves, then Jaidyn Stephenson as a medium forward would be a quality option; Brander (for the LOLs) could be a Himmelberg replacement.
• If Hopper leaves, I'd hope that both $ available and opportunity sees Matt Kennedy remain; Perryman could become the secondary inside midfielder in the succession plan, but with Griffen degrading and likely to retire in 2018, a quality inside midfielder would be high on my list. It's too hard to say what might happen; Carlton is keen on Hopper & he might follow SOS, but Carlton won't give up their likely pick #2 with their next available option not anywhere near value; but the possible outlet of pick #15-18 from Adelaide for Gibbs would provide poorer quality replacement value. Shipley is likely to be somewhere in the mix of speculative options (especially if Taranto steps up), but we'll need to see how he copes at Div 1 level.
• There's no real standout replacement for Patfull/Shaw in the draft among GWS academy kids; Highmore the closest in characteristics but not in quality. I see Buntine as possibly being the guy on our list who steps into that role (can mark, ground ball ability, leadership qualities), but for mine, we still need to go to the draft for someone longer term. Tom Highmore is a faint possibility, but I suspect unlikely. That's where a live pick in the back end of the first round or early second round might be needed. Personally, I like the look of Nick Coffield (190cm attacking half-back & Northern Knights captain described as a 'natural competitor') in that likely 15-20 range. I'm not expecting GWS to go that way though!
• I can see Spargo being an option if NM use their first round picks on Kelly, Dusty Martin or Hopper & GWS gets a mid-teens live pick from a Smith/Hopper/Kennedy departure.
• I reckon Jack Powell is most likely as a second round academy selection as Stevie J's replacement. That would be a good outcome - naturally competitive, we get another Canberra lad on the books, easily done with points/selections, doesn't create too many waves as second-round talent. (Sorry Cogs, personally I just can't see Connor Owen-Auburn being a likely rookie pick.)
• Nick Shipley should be another likely selection. Late crossover to AFL from soccer, so should have some upside, but we won't want to pay too much for him. Is flexible - started as a half-back, won MVP for Giants in this year's Div 2 U18 Championships as an inside mid with an ability to go forward & take marks & kick goals.

So, for mine, Jack Powell, Nick Shipley & possibly Nathan Richards the most likely from the academy. The remainder of the picture really depends on departures & incoming picks and how players do in the upcoming U18 championships.

[Edit: sorry, the formatting of the two teams got screwed up so I had to redo.]

As an outsider, I think this is a very good write up. Good work mate. Just looking at your departures, and without any inkling or knowledge, my gut feel at this moment of the season is that Kelly stays with you guys and re-signs. Leaving those others in Hopper, Kennedy, Smith and Himmelberg your possible losses. Your recent re-signings of Setterfield and Perryman etc leads me to this way of thinking. As I said, just gut feeling as an outsider.

 

[Giant Strides]

To me Zac Williams is still our most underrated player and could be our best mid in a few years. If Kelly goes he could partly fill the void.Hopefully with some luck with injuries Setterfield and even Deledio could be added to our mid rotations next year.

While Kennedys form warranted an extension (saw him talking with his parents in a Crown street cafe this weeek) if Zac moves to mids and Shaw ages his backline run becomes more important.

With Devon Smith situation I can't see the cats acquiring both Ablett and Smith. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.

Zac's (& also Nathan Wilson's) counterattacking flair is so important to GWS, and both - to a degree - underrated. One of the media outlet's did a story at the start of the year stating that Zac was in the top 2 underrated players IIRC, and noted his rise in rankings. On the latter point, it depends on what system & how they measure it - and noting that some dislike/disagree with the systems - but the AFL Player Rating has Zac this week rated as the highest of the GWS players at 21 - just above Toby at 22, and remarkably above Callan Ward at 27 & Dylan Shiel at 30 (Josh Kelly is 39 and rising fast too). So, yes underrated by largely the VFL media because of his background, but being noticed by the ranking systems.

WRT Dev, Geelong & Ablett. Despite Ablett's great form, he's still 33, so I cannot see Geelong giving up a very high pick for him & certainly not a first round pick. With the AFL ruling that the requirement to hold & use 2 first round draft picks in 4 years doesn't start until 2019, Geelong would be able to use a future first round pick for Dev (obviously expect it in the 15 to 18 region). So, I think Dev to Geelong is still possible, and fairly independent of Ablett.

 

[Determinant]

Sproule has been playing midfield in the NEAFL, does anyone have any insight on whether this is by need or a reflection of where the Giants see him playing going forward?

 

[fridgeman]

Sproule has been playing midfield in the NEAFL, does anyone have any insight on whether this is by need or a reflection of where the Giants see him playing going forward?

I would say it is need and he looks to be a good shot at goal and once he builds some strength and endurance he could develop to a 2/3 tall and an ability to relieve ruck

 

[Determinant]

I would say it is need and he looks to be a good shot at goal and once he builds some strength and endurance he could develop to a 2/3 tall and an ability to relieve ruck

The glimpses I've seen he looks like a footballer but I'd always assumed we drafted him as a KPP not a mid, but a 197cm capable inside mid would be a loverly scary thought

 

[dlanod]

Sproule has been playing midfield in the NEAFL, does anyone have any insight on whether this is by need or a reflection of where the Giants see him playing going forward?

I think we play just about every listed player in the midfield in the NEAFL at times. In part due to injuries, but also in part to make sure they actually get time on ball and match fitness instead of stranded up an end where the ball never reaches. Finlayson was doing similarly.

 

[Giant Strides]

Agree, think it's to build up their fitness base. Would also help them understand the game from the other side (i.e. delivering it forward) to help their tactical game in understanding how to position best to receive the ball.

Now, these rumours about McVeigh & Mackie. Nothing against Mackie, I think he's been a good player for the Cats, but apart from being experienced depth and potentially replacing someone like HH (if he left) or Mohr, I really don't understand why we'd get him - and I'd still prefer to go to the draft. McVeigh makes even less sense - he looks injury-riddled and cooked. My concern is that this is how the Deledio deal started last year as a 'GWS is interested' rumour, and then those 2 drop in rumours over the weekend (Deledio doing other calf & boys training badly through the week and looking beatable) makes me worried that the club leaks like a sieve, especially with the not so good info. Just cannot see any good if we brought in those guys. Someone tell me I'm overreacting to bullshit rumours and it's not going to happen!

 

[Determinant]

Agree, think it's to build up their fitness base. Would also help them understand the game from the other side (i.e. delivering it forward) to help their tactical game in understanding how to position best to receive the ball.

Now, these rumours about McVeigh & Mackie. Nothing against Mackie, I think he's been a good player for the Cats, but apart from being experienced depth and potentially replacing someone like HH (if he left) or Mohr, I really don't understand why we'd get him - and I'd still prefer to go to the draft. McVeigh makes even less sense - he looks injury-riddled and cooked. My concern is that this is how the Deledio deal started last year as a 'GWS is interested' rumour, and then those 2 drop in rumours over the weekend (Deledio doing other calf & boys training badly through the week and looking beatable) makes me worried that the club leaks like a sieve, especially with the not so good info. Just cannot see any good if we brought in those guys. Someone tell me I'm overreacting to bullshit rumours and it's not going to happen!

I'm hoping it's not going to happen!

 

[captainMyCaptain]

Would like to think if they were to join it would be in coaching roles, and given how long some of our assistant coaches have been with us it might be time to have some fresh voices come in.

 

[Giant Strides]

I am fervently hoping that it's just a coaching role if true. GWS probably a good option for McVeigh - not coaching the players he's been with, get a fresh perspective without having to leave the state, and probably go back to Swans in a few years. I'll hold judgement on their coaching ability at this time though.

 

[Andre the Giant]

The club has offered Jelly 800k for 2 years.

With a list like ours that is very good coin. Hopefully he stays and puts success ahead of $$$ as he will end up a multi either way.

Proud of the club, no doubt it means we lose another player if he stays but Kelly has proven this year he is elite and we should be fighting for him.

 

[gee whiz giant]

Zac's (& also Nathan Wilson's) counterattacking flair is so important to GWS, and both - to a degree - underrated. .

Agree on their counter-attacking importance, but teams are scoring too easily against us. Essendon and Carlton ran right through the middle continually. With Patfull gone, and Kenners & Buntine out, we've lost 3 close-checking defenders. It's a worry going into the 2nd half of the season.

 

[Danny88]

Agree on their counter-attacking importance, but teams are scoring too easily against us. Essendon and Carlton ran right through the middle continually. With Patfull gone, and Kenners & Buntine out, we've lost 3 close-checking defenders. It's a worry going into the 2nd half of the season.

I would argue that has far more to do with midfielders not running both ways than the defense needing to lock down harder. I actually think the defensive work of those guys is really good, but if a team can run it straight through the middle I would argue thats because the forwards didn't chase and the mids aren't doing their job either.

 

[dlanod]

I would argue that has far more to do with midfielders not running both ways than the defense needing to lock down harder. I actually think the defensive work of those guys is really good, but if a team can run it straight through the middle I would argue thats because the forwards didn't chase and the mids aren't doing their job either.

GWS is a bit of a funny case with defensive running. It has been a huge bugbear of mine at the Lions so I tend to watch it fairly closely in any game and in GWS's case it isn't so much a case of guys not trying, as you can see Shiel and Kelly and the likes trying to make up ground, it's that because we attack so proactively if there's a turnover we're very easy to expose on the counter attack.

If everyone's streaming ahead of the ball and our ball movement is working, the aggressive players running forward great. However no amount of defensive running is going to get, say, Scully who may have sprinted to be the player two more in line for the attacking possession all the way back to cover.

Usually because of that proactive nature we'll only have a couple of mids in a position where they can conceivably get back to impact the play at all, and because the opposition have usually lagged off us we find ourselves outnumbered.

 

[Danny88]

GWS is a bit of a funny case with defensive running. It has been a huge bugbear of mine at the Lions so I tend to watch it fairly closely in any game and in GWS's case it isn't so much a case of guys not trying, as you can see Shiel and Kelly and the likes trying to make up ground, it's that because we attack so proactively if there's a turnover we're very easy to expose on the counter attack.

If everyone's streaming ahead of the ball and our ball movement is working, the aggressive players running forward great. However no amount of defensive running is going to get, say, Scully who may have sprinted to be the player two more in line for the attacking possession all the way back to cover.

Usually because of that proactive nature we'll only have a couple of mids in a position where they can conceivably get back to impact the play at all, and because the opposition have usually lagged off us we find ourselves outnumbered.

I would argue that some of those mids you say are streaming forward into attack are able to do so because they are already behind their man when we get the ball. Shiel for example does this often.

 

[dlanod]

I would argue that some of those mids you say are streaming forward into attack are able to do so because they are already behind their man when we get the ball. Shiel for example does this often.

*shrug* if you want to view it that way. I'm thinking in terms of when we launch an attack out of our defensive 50, since that seems to be a very common scenario for us so there's usually a minute or so transition.

The big issues IMO is composure under pressure and avoiding turnovers. We repeatedly see our players lose their head and go for panic handballs that result in turnovers, or handballing to a player under immediate pressure also resulting in a turnover. It's a repeated issue in most of our recent losses - to Adelaide, Collingwood last year, and Carlton this year at a minimum.

 

[gee whiz giant]

The big issues IMO is composure under pressure and avoiding turnovers.

Yes, well that too, as well as an absence of lock-down small defensive work. The boys have lost some of last years fluency, perhaps oppo coaches have learnt to counter-act the 'orange tsunami.'

My half-term report card might say that the Giants still haven't found a game style that can beat the Bulldogs (still our biggest threat) in finals.