Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[LordLucifer]

Although l’m comfortable with all the delistings l remember our discussions on the number of delistings likely this year. Generally people thought there could only be so many changes and some of the fringe players would be kept for 1 more year.

With 13 list changes for 2017 Sos put an end to the theory of keeping fringe players. He just continues to cut hard, no mucking around. Once he decides a player just isn’t up to it , he cuts them.On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

And we heard the same arguments the year before and the year before that yet here we are again, axe in hand and slayings all around us.

 

[LordLucifer]

This is the year where we really see the reality of what we are doing.

We have potential stars who will need to take the next step to confirm their potential. Charlie, JW, SPS.

We have many players that look to very good but again its all potential : Marchbank, Plowman, Silvagni, Fisher, Macreadie, Cunningham, Williamson, Pickett

If they all come on as most here expect, then we are tracking pretty well, but if even a few dont, then we are struggling

We all accept that there is a plethora of talent now on the list but as supporters, we have to be patient in regards to seeing actual results. Young players take 2-3 years to reach 50-games, develop a strong aerobic tank and an AFL combatant physique.

The other thing to factor in is that players develop at different rates so they may not all "click" together which will setback the overall premiership thrust.

In 2018, all we need to see is further development of the game-plan and the players working harder together (ie: gelling), wins & losses are still some irrelevant. However, 2019 is a completely different case.

 

[HBF]

Murphy and Simpson dual milestones 250 and 300

Pretty big year for the club then. Hope all our supporters turn out for both these games and help celebrate with these guys.

 

[HBF]

I forgot about joey Anderson too. Stood his ground in a crunching contest and that was his career highlight

IIRC it was a charging J.Brown that he stood in front of.

 

[Omega Blue]

Pretty big year for the club then. Hope all our supporters turn out for both these games and help celebrate with these guys.

I think it's the same game assuming both play every game

 

[echowarrior3000]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings

So we currently have the highest number of list changes out of any club this off-season with 13.
I'd imagine we'd have the highest number going back over a 3-5 year period as well.

Does anyone have the exact list change figures since Silvangi took over?

 

[HARKER]

Does anyone have the exact list change figures since Silvangi took over?

Here you go. A full senior squad gone in numbers in just 3 years

 

[95bluemember]

Hawks finished round the bottom 4 in 2004 and won the flag on 08 I don't think we need to wait until 22/23 before challenging.This years and next years draft are crucial.

So what your saying best case scenario is 2021 flag BEST case.
The hawks didn't turn over 64 players in 4 years though did they?that's a whole list and a half!

It's like Einstein's theory of relativity, every experiment conducted to prove his theory wrong only proved that he was correct ever more accurately!

I think this may be the case here, every dream scenario you have is just that! a dream scenario......
Give the kids time to get 100-120 games under their belts, we will be a much better team for it.
There's nothing wrong with wanting early success, but it not likely to happen that fast.

P.s I've included a rebuttal post for folks to save them the time...peace

 

[BlackGoanna]

That Docherty should be a mid? He's not got the lateral movement for it.

A mean side step is paramount or half your disposals will be rushed, particularly if you can't break tackles at close range. He'd play wing, which would basically be how he plays defence except his output would be weaker.

If you want to use him in midfield setups, that's fine and many clubs are doing that without dropping said players into a more inside role.

He was definitely handier than I expected him to be, but it would be waste to use him as a full time mid when his greatest attacking strengths lie on the outside of a stoppage.

Agree Docherty is not a midfielder. He does not have that 360 awareness needed as a midfielder, he is a straight line player very well suited to HBF. Why do people keep suggesting taking out an AA bank flanker to create a B grade midfielder.

 

[F_therest]

View attachment 433930

Here you go. A full senior squad gone in numbers in just 3 years

Goodness me that list is full of poor names...our list really was shocking.

Full of journeymen and flawed youngsters.

 

[footyfan1978]

What makes sense is to have players be as effective as they can possibly be.

Which you will learn in time means elite backs you play in the backline, elite mids you play in the mids and elite forwards you play forward. By no means does that stop players at times playing other positions during games or even for a number of weeks. But when talking team development context in long run you recruit better youngsters for areas you weak in and do not steal from other areas just for sake of it.

By the way, Docherty played a lot on ball in his earlier games for Carlton. He was handy for sure there but down back he is absolute elite defender and once that became abundantly clear he has only ever been used to pinch hit in middle for short periods and this will continue to be the case.

We brought guys like Kennedy and Lang to the club to play midfield and will certainly be using SPS, Fisher and Cuningham in there more and more with Cripps, Murphy and Ed Curnow the bulk of the load. Meanwhile Charlie Curnow is still being developed and they will see how much time he can spend there and still impact games. Docherty will be spending the majority of his time in backline, you can be sure of that.

 

[CJMB]

Not definitive ...

We have a few 23 to 24 year olds. Docherty, Plowman, Cripps (turns 23 in 2018) and Lang.

Lamb is 25 years old, I think Mullett is too. Graham turns 24 next year and Kerridge turns 25.

In 2 years time:
- our 5 best 22 players from the 2015 Draft (Weitering, McKay, Charlie, Cuningham and Jack) will all be 22 years old.
- Pickett and Marchbank will be 23, Kennedy 22 ...
- Our 2016 draftees (SPS, Fisher, Williamson, Macreadie, Polson and Kerr) will mainly be 21 year olds.

Free agents anyone?

The age profile the list may actually be a little misleading in a year or two. Due to our rebuild/reset we've been putting a fair few games into some young kids at a significant rate. This time next year Weitering will be 20 and (touch wood) should be sitting in the 60-64 game bracket.

Say for arguments sake our round 1 team is:

Simpson | Jones | Docherty
Marchbank | Weitering | Plowman
Lang | Cripps | Petrevski-Seton
Wright | C Curnow | Cuningham
Silvagni | Casboult | Pickett
Kreuzer | Kennedy | Murphy
E Curnow | Williamson | Fisher | Byrne

The average age and games respectively is 22.1 years and 74. End of the season that's about 22.7 and maybe 94. That's little misleading with soon to be 300 gamer Simmo in the twilight of his career, but our 2019 rd 1 team (effectively swapping Simmo for pick 3) could be basically the same age and 8-85 games, albeit with a better spread across the park and only 10 or so guys still on less than 50 games. 2020 may only have 2 or 3 sub-50 game players with the average up around 100-105. Those numbers could all be higher if there's any trade/FA/DFA/etc action. Through Thomas and Mullet in place of some younger guys in that original 22 and the av goes up 10 games or so.

 

[Jimmae]

Agree Docherty is not a midfielder. He does not have that 360 awareness needed as a midfielder, he is a straight line player very well suited to HBF. Why do people keep suggesting taking out an AA bank flanker to create a B grade midfielder.

A big part of what you're talking about is training and minutes to gain a sense of where people will be moving through.

He has good awareness, which is how he can run half the field to stop an easy goal on the counter with a good success rate. What he doesn't have is the ability to repeatedly escape stoppage contests or deliver the football outside of them through a combination of speed and strength.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The age profile the list may actually be a little misleading in a year or two. Due to our rebuild/reset we've been putting a fair few games into some young kids at a significant rate. This time next year Weitering will be 20 and (touch wood) should be sitting in the 60-64 game bracket.

Say for arguments sake our round 1 team is:

Simpson | Jones | Docherty
Marchbank | Weitering | Plowman
Lang | Cripps | Petrevski-Seton
Wright | C Curnow | Cuningham
Silvagni | Casboult | Pickett
Kreuzer | Kennedy | Murphy
E Curnow | Williamson | Fisher | Byrne

The average age and games respectively is 22.1 years and 74. End of the season that's about 22.7 and maybe 94. That's little misleading with soon to be 300 gamer Simmo in the twilight of his career, but our 2019 rd 1 team (effectively swapping Simmo for pick 3) could be basically the same age and 8-85 games, albeit with a better spread across the park and only 10 or so guys still on less than 50 games. 2020 may only have 2 or 3 sub-50 game players with the average up around 100-105. Those numbers could all be higher if there's any trade/FA/DFA/etc action. Through Thomas and Mullet in place of some younger guys in that original 22 and the av goes up 10 games or so.

Very astute post.. need to look at games played not just age.

Its no coincide that players break out in their third year. The 3rd year breakout is because theyve played 40-60 games and are ready to contribute every week at AFL level.

In 2019 have a look at how many of our kids will have 40-60 (or more) games.

Cripps, Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank, Kennedy, Weitering, Charlie Curnow, Silvagni, Mullet, Kerridge, Lang

And potentially in that bracket or close to it could also be Byrne, Petrevski-Seton, Cuningham, Fisher, Williamson, Pickett.

That shouldnt be underestimated. Just like our players could break out, 2019 could be the clubs break out.

 

[raymagoo]

IIRC it was a charging J.Brown that he stood in front of.

Certainly was!

 

[Jimmae]

Currently estimating that there'll be about 85 picks at the draft, so we might still use our 6th round pick if not too many others jump on the bandwagon.

 

[Benaly28]

Pretty big year for the club then. Hope all our supporters turn out for both these games and help celebrate with these guys.

If they play and not injured who will it be against?

 

[footyfan1978]

Currently estimating that there'll be about 85 picks at the draft, so we might still use our 6th round pick if not too many others jump on the bandwagon.

Yes, it does not matter we traded away 95 for Lobbe as our next pick after 73 will not be too far given a lot of passes start happening in 70's and 80's anyway.

Even our pick 73 might be shifted up to the late 60's if some father-son and academy bids push back some picks from mid draft to after our 73.

What fascinates me in last 24 hours is learning the rookie list players can play seniors (apart from category B ones) so we got 44 players to pick and really the rookie draft in effect ends up being the draft continues after pick 80's on another day. The old 38/6 split or 40/4 is almost irrelevant now apart from cost purposes.

 

[mjonc43]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

I’m tipping you work in cyber security? It’s all about the unknown unknowns.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[LordLucifer]

Nope, was Digby. In fact The Beatles got so sick of forgetting who hid behind the goalpost, they wrote a song about it.....

Ah, look at all the lonely players.
A Morrell Digby, stands off the field
So defenders won't know that he's there,
But nobody cares.

Waits at the goalpost, all on his own,
Thinking it's his best chance to score,
It's starting to bore.

All the lonely players,
Where do they all come from?
All the lonely players,
Where do they all belong?

Don't give up your day job at the carpark just yet Ferris.

 

[2020BlueForce]

You were obviously out sniffing the roses this morning, I really hope this fairy tale comes true too, we're in Gold Coast suns new franchise territory with all the chops to the list over the last few years - but minus all the concessions they had, fingers crossed our boat doesn't sink too. What did we beat them by again?? We are five years away at least!
That's the reality of it.
I'm not saying the kids will be crap, it's just going to take a long time.

Well that sucks! 2022Blueforce doesn't have the same ring to it!

 

[ferrisb]

Don't give up your day job at the carpark just yet Ferris.

You fellas have nothing to worry about. I'm a professional.....

 

[95bluemember]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

When you say highly subjective post, you should just say: WARNING this post contains common sense.

 

[Aphrodite]

Pretty big year for the club then. Hope all our supporters turn out for both these games and help celebrate with these guys.

Both milestones fall at the same time.

If both don't miss any games leading up to their milestones, it will be against Port in Rnd 15 at the MCG which is our home game.

 

[95bluemember]

That Docherty should be a mid? He's not got the lateral movement for it.

A mean side step is paramount or half your disposals will be rushed, particularly if you can't break tackles at close range. He'd play wing, which would basically be how he plays defence except his output would be weaker.

If you want to use him in midfield setups, that's fine and many clubs are doing that without dropping said players into a more inside role.

He was definitely handier than I expected him to be, but it would be waste to use him as a full time mid when his greatest attacking strengths lie on the outside of a stoppage.

I'm not advocating for Doc to go into the midfield, but Nathan Buckley described Doc as "essentially a midfielder that just plays down back" during the year before we played Collingwood, so if he is thinking that it's obviously crossed Boltons mind.