Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Soapy V]

You're actually making my point for me. As midfielders decline, they get moved out of the midfield.

Nope

 

[My name geoff]

Nope

Did you even read the post I was replying to?

 

[Soapy V]

Did you even read the post I was replying to?

Yes

 

[Jimmae]

You're actually making my point for me. As midfielders decline, they get moved out of the midfield.

Weird, because your original point was that all rookies are HBFs? Not all midfielders get moved out: in fact, most haven't been.

The biggest problem in the game right now seems to be how few junior mids and flankers are cutting the mustard in the midfield at AFL level.

 

[Soapy V]

What makes sense is to have players be as effective as they can possibly be. Docherty, like Gibbs, Goddard, Sloane, Dangerfield, Heppell, Burgoyne, Hodge, Lewis etc etc, will be more than capable of moving into the midfield where, like those before him, he will be more effective.

Nope

 

[Magruder]

He speaks as if the list is static. It ain't.

Um ...stock up on great young talent and recruit established elite players in their prime, when the time is right ...like next year ...and the year after.

Classic bit of TW drama for mine

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Classic Wallace fence sitting.

He'll have articles like this archived (together with ones where he's quoted giving the opposite view) so thT he can say he saw it coming- whatever the outcome.

Not worth your time

 

[Magruder]

Think we have a crack at landing Dylan Shiel or Josh Kelly at the end of a Season 2019.

Even both

 

[BlackGoanna]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

What is a known known is that this is just your opinion, and we all have different views.

I'm personally excited for 2019 and beyond as we are actually doing something we have never done before, that is build a young list from the draft and trade period and develop the players and gameplan

I am bullish for the following reasons;

1. The only player of any note that will not be on our list in 2019 is Simpson
2. Murphy and Kruezer will still be around playing good football
3 Docherty and Cripps will be terrific leaders and are already genuine elite players
4 The 4 rising stars from this year will be in there 3-4 seasons and all could be elite by 2019
5 We will have the best defense in the comp by 2019. Weitering/ Jones/ Marchbank/ Doc/ Plowman/ Byrne. They would have had 3-4 years together
6 We have traded in smartly with Kennedy and Lang, the AFL has not seen the best of these guys
7 the 2017 draft will help round out our midfield and forward depth
8 we will target a big FA in 2018
9 well placed in the 2018 draft for more elite talent
10 the following players have significant upside and will be much better players with a further 2 years of football. Curnow, Pickett, Marchbank, Kennedy, Lang, Weitering, Seton, Fisher, McKay, Cunningham, Williamson, Silvagni, Macreadie, Plowman. All of these players are either in front of the curve or shown significant glimpses of potential

 

[branedotorg]

Because playing in the heart of midfield is the most aerobically, technically and tactically demanding position on the field.

agree, it's actually one of the more demanding roles in any sport.

the level of awareness in 360 degrees, combined with the sheer number of other players on the field to be aware of and the body impact makes it challenging.

Defence and forward are more analogous to other sports, as both roles face the ball.

 

[My name geoff]

Weird, because your original point was that all rookies are HBFs? Not all midfielders get moved out: in fact, most haven't been.

The biggest problem in the game right now seems to be how few junior mids and flankers are cutting the mustard in the midfield at AFL level.

You've obviously completely missed the point of what I said.

 

[COBALT BLUE]

Too many variables.

Defence is set and another year or so together and they will be great.

Midfield has potential with more added this year. Being in 1 or 2 ready to go elite elite mids in 2018 and anything can happen

Finals in 2019 is very realistic. Then anything can happen

Defence good
Mids will need a couple dedicated mid elites
Forwards need a couple goal kicking elites

We have developed a bit of a list depth [dont forget we have to do northern as well]
This wont stand tho again solid opposition even with our drafts maturing when taking top 4 etc..
If we stay mid list a couple years and start accumulating elites like Judd,Marc,Simmo.....
We have a foot hold but it wont be this team that goes top 4 ....it will be different
SOS should fix it eventually.

 

[mediumsizered]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

The highlighted sentence is what it is all about. I see it as buy-in. Malthouse got it at Collingwood in 2010, Beveridge at the Bulldogs in 2016 & Dimma this year.

Townsend, Butler, McIntosh, Astbury, Castagna, Broad (dickhead, but that's for another thread), Graham, Nankervis, Lambert.
Roberts, Cordy, Dickson, Biggs, Dunkley, Smith, McLean.
Blair, Leigh Brown, Goldsack, Dawes, Macaffer, Toovey, Wellingham.

Many of these names you would associate with VFL standard football, rather than being AFL premiership players, but they all bought in to where the coach/team were going. In each case the teams got on a roll, the self belief went through the roof & before you knew it the lesser lights were playing at a level not far below their more talented teammates. This is how premierships are going to be won in this era where the talent has been spread thinner as a result of the arrival of the Suns & Giants.

We lost 9 games this year in which we were in winning positions. You win 5 of those & you would have been just outside the 8 & this happened when playing a large number of kids & for some of the games, playing without 2 of our starting midfield.

Bolts has us playing a game which mostly ensures we are in with a chance well into the last quarter. It only takes a little bit of tidying up of panicky moments & a bit more confidence in the younger players & suddenly you are winning more of those close games. This is why 6 wins can quickly become 11-12 wins & then 14+ wins.

 

[PrinceCharles]

Don't get me wrong I Love Willo but he has a LONG way to go to get to 286 games and 14 years ..... a LOT of water to pass .....

Willo is like Chuck Norris, he will play 300 games in 7 years.

 

[F_therest]

The highlighted sentence is what it is all about. I see it as buy-in. Malthouse got it at Collingwood in 2010, Beveridge at the Bulldogs in 2016 & Dimma this year.

Townsend, Butler, McIntosh, Astbury, Castagna, Broad (dickhead, but that's for another thread), Graham, Nankervis, Lambert.
Roberts, Cordy, Dickson, Biggs, Dunkley, Smith, McLean.
Blair, Leigh Brown, Goldsack, Dawes, Macaffer, Toovey, Wellingham.

Many of these names you would associate with VFL standard football, rather than being AFL premiership players, but they all bought in to where the coach/team were going. In each case the teams got on a roll, the self belief went through the roof & before you knew it the lesser lights were playing at a level not far below their more talented teammates. This is how premierships are going to be won in this era where the talent has been spread thinner as a result of the arrival of the Suns & Giants.

We lost 9 games this year in which we were in winning positions. You win 5 of those & you would have been just outside the 8 & this happened when playing a large number of kids & for some of the games, playing without 2 of our starting midfield.

Bolts has us playing a game which mostly ensures we are in with a chance well into the last quarter. It only takes a little bit of tidying up of panicky moments & a bit more confidence in the younger players & suddenly you are winning more of those close games. This is why 6 wins can quickly become 11-12 wins & then 14+ wins.

It really is crazy to think Richmond won when you look at their list and premiership side...as you mentioned, so many average players on paper.

Certainly think 'buy in' and commitment is more important now than it has ever been, with everyone playing their role and applying defensive pressure. Can't afford to carry any lazy or soft players anymore, whereas you might have gotten away with it in the past. I see that as why we cut Boekhorst. He showed some promise but in the end SOS probably knew he was a bit lazy and couldn't be trusted to put his body on the line in a cut throat final.

It's also why a team like Geelong were prepared to see Menzel and Motlop leave, despite their talent. Richmond playing Townsend, Butler etc ahead of the more talented Lennon, Adelaide not playing Troy Menzel etc.

If premierships were won by who has the best list, GWS would win every year...they have the best list on paper with plenty of talent but they're falling short.

 

[JuddgementDay]

What is a known known is that this is just your opinion, and we all have different views.

I'm personally excited for 2019 and beyond as we are actually doing something we have never done before, that is build a young list from the draft and trade period and develop the players and gameplan

I am bullish for the following reasons;

1. The only player of any note that will not be on our list in 2019 is Simpson
2. Murphy and Kruezer will still be around playing good football
3 Docherty and Cripps will be terrific leaders and are already genuine elite players
4 The 4 rising stars from this year will be in there 3-4 seasons and all could be elite by 2019
5 We will have the best defense in the comp by 2019. Weitering/ Jones/ Marchbank/ Doc/ Plowman/ Byrne. They would have had 3-4 years together
6 We have traded in smartly with Kennedy and Lang, the AFL has not seen the best of these guys
7 the 2017 draft will help round out our midfield and forward depth
8 we will target a big FA in 2018
9 well placed in the 2018 draft for more elite talent
10 the following players have significant upside and will be much better players with a further 2 years of football. Curnow, Pickett, Marchbank, Kennedy, Lang, Weitering, Seton, Fisher, McKay, Cunningham, Williamson, Silvagni, Macreadie, Plowman. All of these players are either in front of the curve or shown significant glimpses of potential

Great post
And even more kudos for the strong correlations to username

 

[bluekidjoe]

Of the young rising teams, there are three that have been built for sustained success and aren't plugging holes with mediocrity: Melbourne, Carlton and GWS.
Saints have too many gaps that aren't addressed, and their culture is another story.
Dogs and Tigers won in vacuum years after a dynasty, mostly on emotion. Once the Dees and Blues are ready (they're a couple of years ahead of us) it'll be us two and the Giants at the top for more than half a decade. Just my opinion...

 

[Soapy V]

Defence good
Mids will need a couple dedicated mid elites
Forwards need a couple goal kicking elites

We have the basics there they are just young and need developing and patience.

Defence could be anything. Midfield is the area that needs fixing but there is a lot of hope there already. In Charlie SPS Pickett there is genuine elite talent. Probably will be with Pick 3 & Pick 10. Cripps is elite and Kennedy looks to be very very good. Cuningham Fisher Polson Lang all have potential its just how far they get. If they step up that is one heck of a midfield. That's not even counting Curnow or Murphy

Try and rotate them all through the centre square. Not easy. Then add Kelly in 2019

Next year more picks and then add one or two of Ainsworth McLuggage Setterfield Brodie then maybe a Gaff and that is as good as we could hope or is in the AFL.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Dont underestimate how much of a difference a big FA or trade can make.. our 23-27 bracket looks a little thin but add in say... Shield and Kelly and that completely turns around.

 

[Soapy V]

Of the young rising teams, there are three that have been built for sustained success and aren't plugging holes with mediocrity: Melbourne, Carlton and GWS.
Saints have too many gaps that aren't addressed, and their culture is another story.
Dogs and Tigers won in vacuum years after a dynasty, mostly on emotion. Once the Dees and Blues are ready (they're a couple of years ahead of us) it'll be us two and the Giants at the top for more than half a decade. Just my opinion...

I reckon you can add Brisbane to that list

 

[Carl Tone]

Willo is like Chuck Norris, he will play 300 games in 7 years.

Chuck Norris played 300 games?

 

[Funk]

What makes sense is to have players be as effective as they can possibly be. Docherty, like Gibbs, Goddard, Sloane, Dangerfield, Heppell, Burgoyne, Hodge, Lewis etc etc, will be more than capable of moving into the midfield where, like those before him, he will be more effective.

Like a dog with a bone..........

 

[Jimmae]

You've obviously completely missed the point of what I said.

That Docherty should be a mid? He's not got the lateral movement for it.

A mean side step is paramount or half your disposals will be rushed, particularly if you can't break tackles at close range. He'd play wing, which would basically be how he plays defence except his output would be weaker.

If you want to use him in midfield setups, that's fine and many clubs are doing that without dropping said players into a more inside role.

He was definitely handier than I expected him to be, but it would be waste to use him as a full time mid when his greatest attacking strengths lie on the outside of a stoppage.

 

[PrinceCharles]

Chuck Norris played 300 games?

Actually, 300 games play Chuck Norris.

 

[El Topo]

The biggest problem in the game right now seems to be how few junior mids and flankers are cutting the mustard in the midfield at AFL level.

Not sure anything that torpedoes *FC's finals chances can be described as a problem

 

[Nori]

The highlighted sentence is what it is all about. I see it as buy-in. Malthouse got it at Collingwood in 2010, Beveridge at the Bulldogs in 2016 & Dimma this year.

Townsend, Butler, McIntosh, Astbury, Castagna, Broad (dickhead, but that's for another thread), Graham, Nankervis, Lambert.
Roberts, Cordy, Dickson, Biggs, Dunkley, Smith, McLean.
Blair, Leigh Brown, Goldsack, Dawes, Macaffer, Toovey, Wellingham.

Many of these names you would associate with VFL standard football, rather than being AFL premiership players, but they all bought in to where the coach/team were going. In each case the teams got on a roll, the self belief went through the roof & before you knew it the lesser lights were playing at a level not far below their more talented teammates. This is how premierships are going to be won in this era where the talent has been spread thinner as a result of the arrival of the Suns & Giants.

We lost 9 games this year in which we were in winning positions. You win 5 of those & you would have been just outside the 8 & this happened when playing a large number of kids & for some of the games, playing without 2 of our starting midfield.

Bolts has us playing a game which mostly ensures we are in with a chance well into the last quarter. It only takes a little bit of tidying up of panicky moments & a bit more confidence in the younger players & suddenly you are winning more of those close games. This is why 6 wins can quickly become 11-12 wins & then 14+ wins.

Buy in might sneak a premiership but well coached top line talent sets you up for sustained sucess.