Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Soapy V]

He was average in the middle, not terrible.

He was average because they threw him in there adhoc. A full preseason working as a midfielder, learning tap zones, running patterns etc and he will become a general in the midfield. Generals in the midfield are hens teeth.

What would I prefer a general in the midfield or across halfback? Midfield.

Hodge, Lewis, Goddard??

 

[Soapy V]

I think a more realistic scenario is top 4 in 2022 - 2023, although I hope you right

Hope not. It's about the kids getting that vital 50 games unde rthem and then influencing. It will happen in a rush around then. Weitering already has around 40 and Cripps is ready to go. 2018/19 is development and improvement and then from 2020 anything can happen especially if we add a Kelly etc

 

[Soapy V]

Has anyone ever asked Nightmare his views on Ben Silvagni? I don't have a Twitter account but would ask if I did.

He’s no good. Rookie at best

 

[Bluey24]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

 

[AreYouJason]

Good analysis but if we can land mid 20s shiel and kelly for example in the next couple of years a whole lot changes quickly.

Backline is solid. Team defence well implemented..Need HMacs body to hold up and give him best chance to develop quickly. Curnow, Harry, pickett and rayner would be potent with good supply

 

[Metalcrusher]

Love Simmo, but Williamson will offer more long term imo.

Don't get me wrong I Love Willo but he has a LONG way to go to get to 286 games and 14 years ..... a LOT of water to pass .....

 

[COBALT BLUE]

I didn't say it was a masterpiece yet

I'm under no illusion that we have a long way to go. Even though they said a 66 game rebuild I'm thinking it could be more like an 88 game rebuild, two more successful off seasons and two more seasons of drilling the game plan and professional standards into the players. Then our assault on the premiership begins.

There will be no assault on a premiership.....
What has happened or what is presently happening,we have become serious again and will genuinely try anything to lose the weakest list in the competition.
First we stay off the bottom-
We improve as our maturing draft pool starts to pay dividends
We move into the mid table of the competition the next couple of years and become more competitive
Then we target elites the next few years....we will need a few

 

[Nori]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 with my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

There's a lot of crystal ball gazing involved with looking out to 2020-22. It's not surprising that the path to the top 4/premierships is unclear for a team that has just finshing 3rd last.

What we have to do is focus on the process and not on all the pieces. If Carlton gets the process right then we can be confident that that the results will come. Next year is a pivotal year in the club's development because the club's focus will start to shift now from character indicators (e.g. pressure, enduring) to results indicators (win/loss).

The big unknowns for next year is if they can successfully add more attack into a pretty solid defensive game plan and whether they have been able to successfully accelerate the development of their best young talent.

I put it to you that if they win 8-10 games next year then we are all going to be talking confidently about finals in 2019. From there, a top 4 finish in 2020 doesn't seem so unlikely.

 

[ferrisb]

Wasn't that deluca?

Nope, was Digby. In fact The Beatles got so sick of forgetting who hid behind the goalpost, they wrote a song about it.....

Ah, look at all the lonely players.
A Morrell Digby, stands off the field
So defenders won't know that he's there,
But nobody cares.

Waits at the goalpost, all on his own,
Thinking it's his best chance to score,
It's starting to bore.

All the lonely players,
Where do they all come from?
All the lonely players,
Where do they all belong?

 

[Soapy V]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 with my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

Too many variables.

Defence is set and another year or so together and they will be great.

Midfield has potential with more added this year. Being in 1 or 2 ready to go elite elite mids in 2018 and anything can happen

Finals in 2019 is very realistic. Then anything can happen

 

[Nori]

I think he means finishing 13th, is that technically "pushing"?

I'm on record as saying 8-12 wins next year should be achievable, with 10 wins being a result that should get the media excited

I admit that I am an optimist by nature, but if we see the same or more development out of the youngsters next year that we saw this year then Carlton are going to be a much better side in 2018 than they were in 2017.

 

[LanceRomance]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 with my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

Or you could get lucky like the last two premiers

 

[F_therest]

Although l’m comfortable with all the delistings l remember our discussions on the number of delistings likely this year. Generally people thought there could only be so many changes and some of the fringe players would be kept for 1 more year.

With 13 list changes for 2017 Sos put an end to the theory of keeping fringe players. He just continues to cut hard, no mucking around. Once he decides a player just isn’t up to it , he cuts them.

10 changes from main list.
3 rookies gone.

Added to main list.
Lobbe, Lang,Kennedy,mullet

Leaves 6 main draft picks.

Is this correct? Seems like a lot.

Ps. Nick graham survived. So 1 fringe player kept.




On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't even think we have 6 draft picks do we? I wouldn't think any of our current rookies would get elevated either.

I'd be pretty sure we're going to get at least 1 more DFA...there are some decent names there.

 

[HARKER]

I don't even think we have 6 draft picks do we? I wouldn't think any of our current rookies would get elevated either.

I'd be pretty sure we're going to get at least 1 more DFA...there are some decent names there.

We do have 6 picks available if we care to run our main list to a 40/4 split, as we had this year.

I feel we'll see a 39/5 split, allowing us another DFA, 4 picks at the ND and 3 at the RD. Currently we have 34 on the main list and 3 rookies.

If we are to pick up 3 rookies, I wouldn't be surprised should at least one player get a life-line.

 

[bigdog43]

What is it with all these 'experts' aka Terry Wallace smashing us during a rebuild? Essendon haven't won a final since 2004, Melbourne haven't fired a shot since 2000, Collingwood are going backwards and North... well I don't think even North know what they're doing. We have a brilliant young coach, an elite young core and a game plan that has shown us as being capable against the best. Smashing Carlton is a low hanging fruit and bloody boring, think we'll surprise a few next year.

 

[F_therest]

We do have 6 picks available if we care to run our main list to a 40/4 split, as we had this year.

I feel we'll see a 39/5 split, allowing us another DFA, 4 picks at the ND and 3 at the RD. Currently we have 34 on the main list and 3 rookies.

If we are to pick up 3 rookies, I wouldn't be surprised should at least one player get a life-line.

Wouldn't mind Sumner on the rookie list and there has been some talk about that on here and say Matt Shaw.
Then get Hartung as our other DFA as ericpascoe alluded to.
Then yeah go to the draft with 4 picks in the ND and pick up one other rookie like Penrith.

 

[LanceRomance]

What is it with all these 'experts' aka Terry Wallace smashing us during a rebuild? Essendon haven't won a final since 2004, Melbourne haven't fired a shot since 2000, Collingwood are going backwards and North... well I don't think even North know what they're doing. We have a brilliant young coach, an elite young core and a game plan that has shown us as being capable against the best. Smashing Carlton is a low hanging fruit and bloody boring, think we'll surprise a few next year.

I am not even sure what north have to trade

We have traded hampson, hendo, Touhy, Gibbs, and Bell for great value. Not sure they can do something similar

 

[bigdog43]

I am not even sure what north have to trade

We have traded hampson, hendo, Touhy, Gibbs, and Bell for great value. Not sure they can do something similar

Their best asset was Goldstein 2 years ago but they didn't pull the trigger.

 

[F_therest]

I am not even sure what north have to trade

We have traded hampson, hendo, Touhy, Gibbs, and Bell for great value. Not sure they can do something similar

They definitely have less trade assets than we did since a lot of their older players were already in the 29+ age bracket where typically you won't get much in return.

The few they do have they probably need to keep as team leaders like Ziebell & Cunnington. Brown was a must keep.

Having said that Bell was a bit of a meh player and SOS found a very creative way to get good value for him and in part turn it into Charlie Curnow.
Touhy also was a good solid player but certainly no star and SOS managed to get Marchbank & Pickett.

Lesson to take away is SOS is a genius and i'm not convinced any other list manager could have pulled off what he did if they were in his shoes.

North aren't getting creative and didn't even try to trade up higher into the draft...i think they will be a poor - middle of the road team for quite some time.

 

[HARKER]

What is it with all these 'experts' aka Terry Wallace smashing us during a rebuild? Essendon haven't won a final since 2004, Melbourne haven't fired a shot since 2000, Collingwood are going backwards and North... well I don't think even North know what they're doing. We have a brilliant young coach, an elite young core and a game plan that has shown us as being capable against the best. Smashing Carlton is a low hanging fruit and bloody boring, think we'll surprise a few next year.

I don't think he was necessarily smashing us and make no mistake; If we don't start improving on-field the heat will come onto Bolton.

The one thing I'm not too worried about is the loss of our senior players.
The upside is too large from the whole now, to miss the likes of Murphy & Simpson, in the next couple of years.
Gibbs is the loss but if we did have to lose him, we lost him at just the right time.

We have two drafts and one large FA period looming. Let's see what comes about in the next 13 months, before we make any long-term analysis.

 

[My name geoff]

Let me put you out of your misery.
Do not bother trying to convince me stealing an AA quality defender like Docherty to plug up a weak spot in midfield but lessen the quality of our backline is a long term aim.
Think you will find we will continue to have Doch build that defence down there even stronger and teach all the youngsters like Willo etc, how to position themselves and rebound when needed.

Meanwhile in the midfield we will develop the next batch of elite mids there so we have elite backs like Docherty in backline and elite mids in middle as the long term aim and up forward we will aim to develop our young forwards into elite forwards.

You know it makes sense.

What makes sense is to have players be as effective as they can possibly be. Docherty, like Gibbs, Goddard, Sloane, Dangerfield, Heppell, Burgoyne, Hodge, Lewis etc etc, will be more than capable of moving into the midfield where, like those before him, he will be more effective.

 

[Tambourine]

If we can pick up 1 or 2 quality trades or free agents next year and the year after we could rise sooner than expected.

Think richmond. Houli, Grigg, Nankervis, Caddy, Prestia.

This will ne key imo.

 

[Siegfried]

Good analysis but if we can land mid 20s shiel and kelly for example in the next couple of years a whole lot changes quickly.

There's a lot of faith being put in our ability to land big name free agents over the next few years. No doubt we'll be after them, and will have money to spend. But so too will other clubs, it's not going to be easy to get one, let alone 2 or 3. I wouldn't be counting on the really big name free agents. Hopefully we get one or two, but we may not end up with any.

 

[My name geoff]

Because playing in the heart of midfield is the most aerobically, technically and tactically demanding position on the field.

You're also glossing over how many midfielders move into other positions as they age or as teams supplant them with better players. Or how some midfield draftees are considered 'versatile'.

Frankly, anything more than a quick search on Footywire will explain this for you.

You're actually making my point for me. As midfielders decline, they get moved out of the midfield.

 

[JustaBattler]

WARNING: Highlyyyy subjective post awaits you


I think those who believe we'll be contending by 2020 are in for a rude shock

Top 8 at best, in my opinion

Yes, we've created a really exciting foundation for the future in the last 2 years, but giving 2020 with my best assessment raises too many question marks......


Known Knowns - things that we know (well, kinda)

- Simpson is retired (36)
- Murphy still an A / B-grader, but 33
- Ed still an A / B-grader, but 30

- Docherty is a star (27)
- Cripps is a star (25)
- Charlie is a star (23)

- Plowman is an A / B-grader (26)
- Marchbank is an A / B-grader (23)
- Kennedy is an A / B-grader (23)

- Weitering will be a star, but still 22
- SPS will be a star, but still 22
- Pick 3 will be a star, but still 20


Known Unknowns - things we know that we don't know

- Kreuzer will be 31, great 2017, but injuries could take their toll
- Jones will be 30, great 2017, but never shown consistency across seasons

- Wright might be an A / B-grader (30)
- Phillips might be an A / B-grader (29)
- Lamb might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Mullett might be an A / B-grader (28)
- Kerridge might be an A / B-grader (27)
- Graham might be an A / B-grader (26)
- Byrne might be an A / B-grader (25)
- Pickett might be an A / B-grader (24)
- Lang might be an A / B-grader (24)

^^ this particular list freaks me out ^^

- Cuningham might be an A / B-grader, but still 23
- Silvagni might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Fisher might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- McKay might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Macreadie might be an A / B-grader, but still 22
- Willo might be an A / B-grader, but still 21
- Pick 10 might be an A / B-grader, but still 20


Unknown Unknowns - shit that no one saw coming (think ... Manchester United 1958 plane crash)

- Special recruits
- Star player(s) requests a trade
- Star player(s) does an ACL
- Coach
- Club culture
- Sponsorship
- ????


Put short, we will need a HELLUVA lot to go right if we're contending by 2020 - more likely 2022 and thereafter.......... We just don't have the list.

But, hey?! Richmond somehow won it this year with only a few star players and a list of well-drilled hacks

Nice work.

Being conservative - by 2020 - looks like 8 list retirements/changes/improvements required over the next three years. Huge improvement on where we were three years ago...

This is actually ground zero this year 2018 for the CLub - just enough midfield rotations and depth to develop a more consistent 4 quarter game plan and ability to execute.

Missing maybe 2 genuine guns - one in midfield and one in forward line.