Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[TheHeatleyStand]

don't know that you can put docherty's midfield time last year, down to bolton wanting him to play midfield in the future, or playing him there because we had a couple of injuries to key midfielders. the same reason simpson got pushed up the field and got caught out in general play so much and looked to have gone backward.
who remembers andrew walker kicking 50+ goals that year? mick malthouse had the bright idea to play him off the half back flank.

Probably because less stress on his knee from twist and turn

 

[Tambourine]

Where's SPS's best position next year? On the wing/half forward?
Would love to see him spend majority of the time onball. A combination of Cripps, SPS, Kennedy, fisher, Cunningham, then a Cerra/rayner & Bonar maybe gets me pumped for the future!

 

[HARKER]

Where's SPS's best position next year? On the wing/half forward?
Would love to see him spend majority of the time onball. A combination of Cripps, SPS, Kennedy, fisher, Cunningham, then a Cerra/rayner & Bonar maybe gets me pumped for the future!

I know where I don't want to see him; The back-line.

SPS will get more midfield minutes but how many more?
Reckon we'll mostly see the Cripps, Kennedy, Murphy/ECurnow combinations involved.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Cup Day. 17 nights to the 2017 National Draft.

We currently have 5 list spots / live selections at Picks #3, #10, #30, #73 and I think #113 to go to a 38 Senior List 6 Category A Rookie List. Later Picks may be higher with clubs passing ...

It’s a long wait for us Carlton supporter BF tragics. We are on the journey which started when our club started, and rightly so, talking about ‘No quick fixes’ and ‘Reset’.

One more Season, two more drafts (and another trade and FA period), and the 66 games are passed ...

- we will have cleared out the last of the ‘deckchairs’ or whatever we should call them. Was surprised SOS cut so deep this year but at the same time I love that he did so

- we have 3 players - and this is before the Draft - who by my count will be in the ‘Stiff not to be in the best 22’ group during Season 2018, being Lamb, Byrne and Macreadie (and Thomas is not in my best 22 or in the ’Stiff not to be in the best 22’ group) ... so a small amount of depth which will increase again at the start of a Season 2019

- we will have around 6 players move on each year rather than teens of players

- our players will more often go to other clubs when we move them on, and we will more often get draft picks in return (like GWS). Of the 42 who retired or who we have delisted / moved on in the last 3 years, only 6 had trade value (Bell, Henderson, Yarran, Menzel, Tuohy and Gibbs) and Yarran and Menzel are unlikely to get back onto an AFL list

- the average age of players on our list will drop significantly as Thomas, Rowe and Simpson retire and we take on another batch of young players

- we should keep a majority of our young group as we rise. Lang and Kennedy are in the age group and I think both are in our best 22. SOS has the contracts staggered through to the end of Season 2021 so that one isn’t ‘picked off’ due to pay pressure

So it is games into the growing number of kids in 2018. Before the Draft, 15 of our best 22 as I see it are 24 or younger (have bolded the over 24s):

Docherty. Jones. Marchbank.

Williamson. Weitering. Plowman

SPS. Ed Curnow. Lang.

Jack. Casboult. Charlie Curnow

Wright. McKay. Pickett

R. Kreuzer. Cripps. Murphy.

I. Simpson. Kennedy. Cuningham. Fisher.
E. Macreadie. Lamb. Byrne.

And I have hopes for those in ’Stiff not to be in the best 22’ group and Polson, Kerr, Lebois Soapy V ... with our next batch of draftees to come ...

We have some other players for when injuries hit or the young ones are sore: Thomas, Kerridge, Graham, Phillips, Lobbe, Alex SOS

And SOS has deftly acquired Lobbe for some ruck depth in the event Kreuzer is injured or needs a rest. With Casboult sharing the ruck duties and Phillips there too, I think it takes the pressure off in case the rookie ruck is not there for us this year.

And (and, and ...) the Father Sons ... Hickmott ... Ben SOS, Manton and Hickmott ...

The seven 6 day breaks of which three have an interstate leg is not ideal for us. I think we might have a strategy of several changes / resting players for this during Season 2018.

Slowly and surely we are building to sustained success. The Free Agents / marquee players will come, if not end Season 2018 then I think end of the next Season (Shiel, Kelly).

#OnOurWay #DestinationClub #BringOnRound1

 

[inyourcool]

Top post Gap!
Promising times lie ahead

 

[MightyMighties]

Now with so many more midfield options for 2018, it’ll be interesting to see whether picks #3 and #10 are brought in for Round 1 or whether they’re given time to develop in the VFL.

In previous years most of our high picks have been brought in straight away out of necessity. It’d be nice to have the option to introduce them through the lower level if the coaches think they need to.

 

[zeeCFC]

I know where I don't want to see him; The back-line.

SPS will get more midfield minutes but how many more?
Reckon we'll mostly see the Cripps, Kennedy, Murphy/ECurnow combinations involved.

And Cuningham as much as possible pls

 

[HARKER]

And Cuningham as much as possible pls

You're confident of this?

I want it to be the case, but just concerned about his ball-winning ability.
Sure looks good when he bursts out of stoppages though, but we'll need to see a lot more of that and not just once every couple of games.

If....big if....Cuningham was able to clock up his rating to 25 possessions a game, we'd have a serious inside mid on our hands.
Unfortunately it rarely pans out that way where low-possession players become high possession players.......but it's not for lack of development.
Cuningham has been given plenty of inside mid minutes to develop him that way.

 

[HBF]

And Cuningham as much as possible pls

Would like to see Pickett up the ground in bursts as well. His speed will cause some serious headaches.

 

[zeeCFC]

You're confident of this?

I want it to be the case, but just concerned about his ball-winning ability.
Sure looks good when he bursts out of stoppages though, but we'll need to see a lot more of that and not just once every couple of games.

If....big if....Cuningham was able to clock up his rating to 25 possessions a game, we'd have a serious inside mid on our hands.
Unfortunately it rarely pans out that way where low-possession players become high possession players.......but it's not for lack of development.
Cuningham has been given plenty of inside mid minutes to develop him that way.

25 Cuningham touches will be super damaging. I think he's capable of getting 20ish regularly...I keep harking back to this, but watched Murphy miss Cunners several times in games and opt to give the ball to Gibbs in a less desirable position.

My feeling is the kids will take a Crouch like step up this year without Gibbs to lean on. Who knows what Samo can do too with a full preseason.

 

[F_therest]

Now with so many more midfield options for 2018, it’ll be interesting to see whether picks #3 and #10 are brought in for Round 1 or whether they’re given time to develop in the VFL.

In previous years most of our high picks have been brought in straight away out of necessity. It’d be nice to have the option to introduce them through the lower level if the coaches think they need to.

If you don't include pick 3 and pick 10 we don't actually have so many more midfield options in 2018 than 2017.
In fact only 1...Lang and Kennedy in for Gibbs. And at this stage of their careers Gibbs' output is higher than both those players by quite a stretch.

Typically players picked in the top 5 or so these days should be able to play AFL straight away...like SPS, McGrath, Taranto etc.

 

[DirkDiggler]

You're confident of this?

I want it to be the case, but just concerned about his ball-winning ability.
Sure looks good when he bursts out of stoppages though, but we'll need to see a lot more of that and not just once every couple of games.

If....big if....Cuningham was able to clock up his rating to 25 possessions a game, we'd have a serious inside mid on our hands.
Unfortunately it rarely pans out that way where low-possession players become high possession players.......but it's not for lack of development.
Cuningham has been given plenty of inside mid minutes to develop him that way.

Share your concern Harks. Not sure if it is a confidence thing or inability to read play. Don't think he ever hit 30 possies playing in the VFL. Not sure how good Cuningham is overhead but I wouldn't mind seeing him playing as a defensive small. We need pace to run the ball out of defence. Doc, Plowman, Byrne and Cunningham may be the way to go with Simmo playing out what must be his last year.

Dirk

 

[HARKER]

25 Cuningham touches will be super damaging. I think he's capable of getting 20ish regularly...I keep harking back to this, but watched Murphy miss Cunners several times in games and opt to give the ball to Gibbs in a less desirable position.

My feeling is the kids will take a Crouch like step up this year without Gibbs to lean on. Who knows what Samo can do too with a full preseason.

If Cuningham becomes that player, he'd be of more value than purely for the sum of his possessions.

It's great having good ball-users of course, but to have players coming out of the centre at full tilt, really throws the opposition back-line into a spin.
We're not going to find the likes of Dangerfield any time soon, but we must build on ball-winning speedsters....................................Dylan Shiel?

 

[footyfan1978]

Where's SPS's best position next year?
Would love to see him spend majority of the time onball. A combination of Cripps, SPS, Kennedy, fisher, Cunningham, then a Cerra/rayner & Bonar maybe gets me pumped for the future!

Yep, onball. Saw a video of him speaking late last night and he mentioned himself he wanted to build a bigger tank for the midfield, so fully expect that is where he will be. I think SPS and Fisher being groomed to be serious midfielders but probably Fisher more likely to push out to wings if Cripps, Kennedy and SPS dominate the minutes at centre bounces in 18 months.

 

[Bluebag13]

If Cuningham becomes that player, he'd be of more value than purely for the sum of his possessions.

It's great having good ball-users of course, but to have players coming out of the centre at full tilt, really throws the opposition back-line into a spin.
We're not going to find the likes of Dangerfield any time soon, but we must build on ball-winning speedsters....................................Dylan Shiel?

This could bite me in the rear very quickly, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that Cunningham is our best midfielder in a few years time.

There is something special about him, clinical finisher, great disposal and a dare i say, a small Judd like ability to win the ball and run away from a pack with burst.

The probability is low because he is going to be competing against Brownlow medalists in crippa, SPS and fisher but its chance

 

[MightyMighties]

If you don't include pick 3 and pick 10 we don't actually have so many more midfield options in 2018 than 2017.
In fact only 1...Lang and Kennedy in for Gibbs. And at this stage of their careers Gibbs' output is higher than both those players by quite a stretch.

Typically players picked in the top 5 or so these days should be able to play AFL straight away...like SPS, McGrath, Taranto etc.

Maybe, but I’m also factoring in the development of SPS, Cuningham, Fisher, etc. so as they can take more of the workload.

Also potentially seeing Charlie have a run through the middle.

I just think if we see enough development in these youngsters it’ll take the heat of #3 and #10 to start in round 1.

Having said that though, I’d still love to see this years draftees get a guernsey early on. Otherwise it’s like not being able to play with your Christmas presents on Christmas morning!

 

[Faz 2000]

It's tricky to project. If everyone performs at 2017 levels our midfield is weaker for the loss of Gibbs. But there's no doubt whatsoever there's upside and development in Fisher, SPS, Bam Bam, Cuingham, Lang. How much is the million dollar question, of course. Hopefully we get some positive surprises.

The list mgt is spot on though. Just keep putting more moooore moarrrrrr talent in, feed, water, repeat.

 

[Nori]

Where's the development going to come fron in 2018? To move forward there has to be significant improvement from the 2nd and 3rd year players in particular. Who are going to be the biggest movers in 2018 and can they improve the strength of the team. Let's just consider the players that are a good chance to play >= 5 games during 2018.

"+, -, 0" Indicates whether a player's performance improves, declines, or stays the same from 2017 to 2018.

Backline: +2 Improvement (Stongest line in 2017)
Jones (0 / more games, less impact), Plowman (0), Marchbank (+), Simpson (-), Docherty (0), Byrne (+), McCreadie(+), Weitering (+), Williamson (+), Rowe (-), A. Silvagni (-)

Midfield: +4 Improvement
Murphy (0), SPS (+), Cripps (+ /injured 2017), Kennedy (+), Gibbs (-- /traded), Lang (+), Kerridge (0), Polson (+), Fisher (+), Cunnigham (+), E. Curnow (0), Kreuzer (0), Graham (-)

Forward:+4 Improvement
C. Curnow (+), Casboult (0), Pickett (+), Thomas (0), Wright (0), Silvagni (+), McKay (+), Lamb (0)

2018 Draft: +2 Improvement
Pick 3 (+), Pick 10 (+)

A tally of players that are on the improve versus players on the decline indicates a net improvement for 12 players during 2018. To me that indicates the Blues are likely to be a significantly better side in 2018.

Of course this result is largely impacted by the number of long term injuries sustained during 2018 and whether those injuries are to key personnel. Let's just assume for arguments sake that we have a reasonable run with injuries.

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

You're confident of this?

I want it to be the case, but just concerned about his ball-winning ability.
Sure looks good when he bursts out of stoppages though, but we'll need to see a lot more of that and not just once every couple of games.

If....big if....Cuningham was able to clock up his rating to 25 possessions a game, we'd have a serious inside mid on our hands.
Unfortunately it rarely pans out that way where low-possession players become high possession players.......but it's not for lack of development.
Cuningham has been given plenty of inside mid minutes to develop him that way.

When I look at Cuningham I see a half-forward with the capacity to do a burst every so often in the middle.

Hope I'm proven wrong but just don't see him turning into a 25-possession-a-week mid.

 

[Captain crippa]

Where's SPS's best position next year? On the wing/half forward?
Would love to see him spend majority of the time onball. A combination of Cripps, SPS, Kennedy, fisher, Cunningham, then a Cerra/rayner & Bonar maybe gets me pumped for the future!

I’d like sps on wing and resting pocket if there’s even that position anymore

 

[Soapy V]

I’d like sps on wing and resting pocket if there’s even that position anymore

SPS is a pure mid. Can find it inside and outside and find it a lot. What he did this year on an injury interupted first pre season was amazing. A full pre season and watch him star. SPS Cripps Charlie in the middle is exciting and elite

.......then add Cuningham Fisher Pickett Cerra & Clark

 

[Captain crippa]

SPS is a pure mid. Can find it inside and outside and find it a lot. What he did this year on an injury interupted first pre season was amazing. A full pre season and watch him star. SPS Cripps Charlie in the middle is exciting and elite

.......then add Cuningham Fisher Pickett Cerra & Clark

Kennedy ?

 

[Soapy V]

Kennedy ?

and Lang & Polson & Kerridge & Murphy & Curnow. Than add Kelly

 

[Jimmae]

Pretty sure Fisher is going to spend more minutes off half-forward than anywhere else this season, probably swapping with SPS.

Cuningham will mostly play mid. Has the speed/endurance combo for it and will keep growing his game.

 

[ferrisb]

Blaine unfortunately was at Carlton at a time when the ball used to take eons to get into our forward line & would come in haphazardly.

Blaine still plays for us?!?