Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[BluStreak]

I dont mind the idea of Levi, Harry and Charlie together in our forward line setup.
I can see that we would give Harry and Charlie a roaming commission and leave Levi in the goal square as a relief ruck/forward.

This would release Harry to run around like hipwell does and get involved in the game.
Levi at home would mean the opposition would have to mind him.

Now if we are rebounding from defense then Levi storms to the 50 while either Harry or a small forward rush to the goal square would mean that stay at home defender is dragged away from goal

 

[Kernafides]

People really need to get over the McKay in over Levi Round 1 thoughts. Won't be happening. No chance

 

[BlueJet]

Better get used to it this year. Year of reckoning, I fear he's not up to it

It'll be interesting to see where the improvement comes from with Jack.
Obviously if he can tidy up his finishing it wouldn't hurt but as a medium forward without any real point of difference it's hard to be overly confident about his prospects when compared to those he'll be competing with for a spot.

 

[LanceRomance]

What about Ollie wines

 

[CJMB]

19 goals 17 behinds isnt too bad for a 2nd year player in a forward line that can hardly function. Fix the conversion rate and things seem a lot better

Considering our recent scoring ability it might be better to look at the percentage of our goals kicked rather than the total number.

Carlton top 4: Casboult 14%, Wright 13%, Curnow 9%, Silvagni 8%
Adelaide top 4: Betts 14%, Walker 14%, Jenkins 11%, Lynch 8%
Richmond top 4: Riewoldt 16%, Martin 11%, Butler 9%, Castagna 8%
Geelong top 4: Hawkins 15%, Dangerfield 13%, Menzel 12%, Taylor 6%
GWS top 4: Patton 13%, Cameron 13%, Greene 13%, Johnson 6%

Silvagni being 4th position behind Levi, Wright and Charlie seems right, I'm not sure many would expect him to have a higher goal scoring output than any of them at this stage in his career. 8% of teams goals also seems alright for the 4th ranked goal scorer. Not to mention that Jack missed two games and did play down back at least once (from memory) so it's fair to expect that his tally could have been 21-22 or so which still isn't too bad for a young bloke in his position in the lowest scoring side in the comp...

People really need to get over the McKay in over Levi Round 1 thoughts. Won't be happening. No chance

It certainly doesn't help Harry's cause that according to all reports he's been on a modified program/limited duties...

 

[Captain Cripps]

Tough call. I like Jack and think he’ll make it, just not in round 1.

Interchange or starting. Don’t think it really matters anymore. Even with the cap everyone still plays plenty of game time. Can’t you imagine Charlie starting in the bench as bolts identified some role he can wreak havoc in that specific weak. Then unleashing him, fresh.

I don’t know about you, but when I started on the bench I knew I wasn’t best 18
It would be a magnificent way to giving Charlie the bird and make him feel pretty bloody ordinary which he is not imo. Charlie should , unless form or mild injury should never ever start on bench

 

[Iamcarlton]

I dont mind the idea of Levi, Harry and Charlie together in our forward line setup.
I can see that we would give Harry and Charlie a roaming commission and leave Levi in the goal square as a relief ruck/forward.

This would release Harry to run around like hipwell does and get involved in the game.
Levi at home would mean the opposition would have to mind him.

Now if we are rebounding from defense then Levi storms to the 50 while either Harry or a small forward rush to the goal square would mean that stay at home defender is dragged away from goal

I agree i think it would create nightmares for the opposition especially if surrounded by Pickett Garlett SPS Wright and even Murphy at times .

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I don’t know about you, but when I started on the bench I knew I wasn’t best 18
It would be a magnificent way to giving Charlie the bird and make him feel pretty bloody ordinary which he is not imo. Charlie should , unless form or mild injury should never ever start on bench

Fair enough. Not a bad point, I’d hope at the pro level communication is good enough to avoid such feelings but I guess there are enough examples of disheartened players rattling around.

 

[Sector 7G]

I don’t know about you, but when I started on the bench I knew I wasn’t best 18
It would be a magnificent way to giving Charlie the bird and make him feel pretty bloody ordinary which he is not imo. Charlie should , unless form or mild injury should never ever start on bench

That must have been years ago. Now days it takes about 2 minutes to get on and is not an issue.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

how likely (if mckay comes good) are we to play a forward line of mckay/curnow/casboult/silvagni?

I don't see an issue with that like some people do. Personally I don't see SOS and Charlie as talls. They're more mid-sized forwards. Both can push up the ground. Good in the air, good at ground level. Charlie can spend time in the middle and has speed and endurance. SOS has smarts and a defensive mindset.
I think a set up of:
HF: Curnow, Levi, SOS
FF: Wright, McKay, Pickett
Could work very well. It may even relegate Wright to the bench.

 

[BluStreak]

This year is Jesse's last year as a rookie correct. So either he fires and we elevate or we have to delist him.

 

[ferrisb]

This year is Jesse's last year as a rookie correct. So either he fires and we elevate or we have to delist him.

Agreed. Make or break year.

No more 'let's give another year or two to find out'.

Under SOS almost good enough is not good enough.

Maybe it costs you a little with the (VERY) occasional player that kicks on elsewhere. But that is more than compensated by the higher turnover giving you more bites of the talent cherry IMHO.

 

[HARKER]

Was thinking the exact same thing yesterday.

Glass-McCasker is probably the only player on our list yet to show anything and even then I still reckon he's got a future, be it on our list or another club's (slow burn type who I think is worth persisting with). Guys like Temay, McCarthy etc showed absolutely nothing from start to finish. Such a remarkable shift in such a short time!

Ah! Forgot JGM. I find myself forgetting about him often.
Just hasn't the presence you'd expect for a lightning quick tall. Maybe a work-in-progress, that will take time.

I don't recall a moment where some of those guys screamed "look at me".
Temay had the look of a footballer, but if you asked me on what grounds we drafted him....???
DVR also looked like a footballer, but his running partner was Cameron Wood........Cameroon Wood ............ and he was going to be a mid? Weird.
I think I gave up on McCarthy after his first training session. Reckon the coach may have also.

I think we looked at players and had transformation in mind.
I also think our development was sub-par. Now that I think of it, everything was relatively sub-par.

 

[bluemahogany]

How many 190+ forwards kick a goal a game in their first 2 years? And he's under pressure now?

 

[Jimmae]

Considering our recent scoring ability it might be better to look at the percentage of our goals kicked rather than the total number.

Carlton top 4: Casboult 14%, Wright 13%, Curnow 9%, Silvagni 8%
Adelaide top 4: Betts 14%, Walker 14%, Jenkins 11%, Lynch 8%
Richmond top 4: Riewoldt 16%, Martin 11%, Butler 9%, Castagna 8%
Geelong top 4: Hawkins 15%, Dangerfield 13%, Menzel 12%, Taylor 6%
GWS top 4: Patton 13%, Cameron 13%, Greene 13%, Johnson 6%

Silvagni being 4th position behind Levi, Wright and Charlie seems right, I'm not sure many would expect him to have a higher goal scoring output than any of them at this stage in his career. 8% of teams goals also seems alright for the 4th ranked goal scorer. Not to mention that Jack missed two games and did play down back at least once (from memory) so it's fair to expect that his tally could have been 21-22 or so which still isn't too bad for a young bloke in his position in the lowest scoring side in the comp...



It certainly doesn't help Harry's cause that according to all reports he's been on a modified program/limited duties...

Allow me to trample all over this argument: we were dead last for F50 conversions with 33% last season.

I don't think Levi will develop the capacity to change that at the same rate as the rest of the forwards, if he can develop that at all.

 

[Benaly28]

Plowman and Kennedy starting 18 all day everyday.

Hmmm seems like a very left field team TBH

More likely:

Backline:
Weitering Jones Byrne
Williamson Marchbank Simpson

Midfield:
Kreuzer, Murphy, Cripps
E.Curnow, Lang, SPS

Forwards:
Pickett Curnow Silvagni
Fisher McKay Wright

Bench:
Plowman, Kennedy, Dow, ???

Notes:
-last 22 spot up gor grabs Garlett/Daisy/Macreadi/Kerridge (I hope Garlett)
-Forwardline: 3 talls, 3 smalls
-Backline: 3 talls, 3 smalls
-Midfield: good mix of size and speed - balanced

owman

 

[AceAndy]

Allow me to trample all over this argument: we were dead last for F50 conversions with 33% last season.

I don't think Levi will develop the capacity to change that at the same rate as the rest of the forwards, if he can develop that at all.

Dead last is clearly not a great result.

Jimmae out of interest what is the conversion rate for the best teams ?

 

[Jimmae]

Dead last is clearly not a great result.

Jimmae out of interest what is the conversion rate for the best teams ?

I don't have access to shots taken from outside 50, but we can approximate:

 

[CJMB]

Allow me to trample all over this argument: we were dead last for F50 conversions with 33% last season.

I don't think Levi will develop the capacity to change that at the same rate as the rest of the forwards, if he can develop that at all.

Most off that was geared around Silvagni, but I’m definitely hearing what you’re saying. And yeah, that conversion rate is putrid. Hopefully we start to see it addressed this year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[AceAndy]

I don't have access to shots taken from outside 50, but we can approximate:

View attachment 459523

Interesting , not only are we last in conversion but we are 17 th in terms of F50 entries.

Over the course of the season Adelaide had over 400 more F50 entries.

Lot to work on for the coming season.

 

[Jimmae]

Interesting , not only are we last in conversion but we are 17 th in terms of F50 entries.

Over the course of the season Adelaide had over 400 more F50 entries.

Lot to work on for the coming season.

I'm working with total stats for the season, which includes finals for some teams. There are four teams who played 25 games, so their numbers are a little more inflated in terms of F50 entries.

You can catch the averages here: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2017&type=TA&sby=20

I'm not going to muck around the game by game figures to give you a 22-round comparison. As you can see, Port were the most prolific in terms of inside 50s per game, then there's a bit of a gap to Adelaide, after which it's a pretty sequential pack.

 

[SurreyBlue]

I don't have access to shots taken from outside 50, but we can approximate:

View attachment 459523

I find Richmond’s standing interesting! To me most stats mean jack sh1t.....sorry Jim.
Get the game plan right and execute it correctly!

 

[Jimmae]

I find Richmond’s standing interesting! To me most stats mean jack sh1t.....sorry Jim.
Get the game plan right and execute it correctly!

Richmond were third for inside 50s a game, and their finals series bumped their other related stats a bit.

They're still vastly more competitive than us in terms of inside 50s AND scoring.

 

[ferrisb]

I don't have access to shots taken from outside 50, but we can approximate:

View attachment 459523

I'm torn.

On one level, I really like Jimmae's post.

On another level, I also dislike it. Very much.

 

[Jimmae]

I'm torn.