Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[F_therest]

Top 2 is still very valuable, especially as GWS want Rayner apparently..............

If we get Kelly with our first pick it's been great timing to finish down the bottom.

But in terms of the draft, there doesn't seem to be that highly rated, 'ticks all the boxes' midfielder for us to snap up and be dancing in the street about.
Nor was there in 2015 where the standout player was a key defender....history shows defenders are the easiest types of players to get good ones late in drafts...whereas it's nearly impossible to find gun key forwards past pick 20 for example.

 

[Pafloyul]

If Kelly is to come on board, Gibbs doesn't care to leave and we won't trade Murphy, that's unlikely to come about.

Can't see any manoeuvring where that would be possible.

It's stupid that we'd rather trade away our influx of kids than let go of someone that will be over the hill in football terms in a few years. At any rate, I'm thinking next year will have a handful of players selected early that would all go before this year's first picked, make of that what you will.

I'm sure there are a few pig-headed types around that think Kelly is our savior and wouldn't care if we sold the farm for him. Someone in the comments section of an article on the AFL website suggested what we got from a trade for Gibbs plus Macreadie and/or Williamson (probably both) for Kelly and Hopper. What a reactionary trade that would be.

 

[G-TRAIN07]

Remember someone in the know called him a monster

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

What type of monster

 

[therubbernub]

So you are seriously saying we will finish 10th next year? That we will go past 6 to 7 sides next year?

Why Not? Anything is possible. I find it frustrating that posters have such a restricted view of whats possible. We have been in most games up to our teeth . Yes we have had some bad results- but there is not one side who hasn't had a shocking result this year so we are not robinson crusoe .
Every year there are "shock" teams that jump up ahead of where most expect them to be, this is because most non supporters dont appreciate the progress on the list of the team, and that the win loss of the previous year was not representative of where the list was at.
Every game next year should be viewed as a winnable event and its up to us to lose it. Only 3 teams have got hold of us this year. Tigers, Port and Geelong

 

[Arr0w]

Why Not? Anything is possible. I find it frustrating that posters have such a restricted view of whats possible. We have been in most games up to our teeth . Yes we have had some bad results- but there is not one side who hasn't had a shocking result this year so we are not robinson crusoe .
Every year there are "shock" teams that jump up ahead of where most expect them to be, this is because most non supporters dont appreciate the progress on the list of the team, and that the win loss of the previous year was not representative of where the list was at.
Every game next year should be viewed as a winnable event and its up to us to lose it. Only 3 teams have got hold of us this year. Tigers, Port and Geelong

I don't see my views as restricted, just realistic. The kids that we have added to the list are very good, but they will take time. Perhaps i am more patient than most

 

[HARKER]

Why Not? Anything is possible. I find it frustrating that posters have such a restricted view of whats possible. We have been in most games up to our teeth . Yes we have had some bad results- but there is not one side who hasn't had a shocking result this year so we are not robinson crusoe .
Every year there are "shock" teams that jump up ahead of where most expect them to be, this is because most non supporters dont appreciate the progress on the list of the team, and that the win loss of the previous year was not representative of where the list was at.
Every game next year should be viewed as a winnable event and its up to us to lose it. Only 3 teams have got hold of us this year. Tigers, Port and Geelong

Again I say, I'll be disappointed if we can't account for several teams that got us this year; St.Kilda, Fremantle, Richmond, North Melbourne, The Eagles and maybe even Brisbane.
Given our low finish, favourable draw, good coaching, obvious scope for development, no players of great significance retiring etc.......it's possible.

 

[Funk]

Why Not? Anything is possible. I find it frustrating that posters have such a restricted view of whats possible. We have been in most games up to our teeth . Yes we have had some bad results- but there is not one side who hasn't had a shocking result this year so we are not robinson crusoe .
Every year there are "shock" teams that jump up ahead of where most expect them to be, this is because most non supporters dont appreciate the progress on the list of the team, and that the win loss of the previous year was not representative of where the list was at.
Every game next year should be viewed as a winnable event and its up to us to lose it. Only 3 teams have got hold of us this year. Tigers, Port and Geelong

Being "possible" doesn't mean an event is likely to happen.

Yes it is possible we will finish 10th next year.

However I give it about a 1% chance of it happening.

If Kreuz, Cripps, Gibbs or Murphy go down injured - and most likely one of them will?

Absolutely no chance!!!!!

 

[Arr0w]

Again I say, I'll be disappointed if we can't account for several teams that got us this year; St.Kilda, Fremantle, Richmond, North Melbourne, The Eagles and maybe even Brisbane.
Given our low finish, favourable draw, good coaching, obvious scope for development, no players of great significance retiring etc.......it's possible.

You are right Harks anything is possible, if several teams are crueled by injury, as were GWS & Sydney when we beat them.

 

[HARKER]

You are right Harks anything is possible, if several teams are crueled by injury, as were GWS & Sydney when we beat them.

I'm not thinking 100 to 1 possible, but closer to the mark.
There have been several teams that have mostly had their best teams on the field with little bubbling from under.

I see us improving at a greater rate than many others. We'll see.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Being "possible" doesn't mean an event is likely to happen.

Yes it is possible we will finish 10th next year.

However I give it about a 1% chance of it happening.

If Kreuz, Cripps, Gibbs or Murphy go down injured - and most likely one of them will?

Absolutely no chance!!!!!

Cripps curnow down this year. Still in most games. Unlikely yes but still a chance

 

[Arr0w]

I'm not thinking 100 to 1 possible, but closer to the mark.
There have been several teams that have mostly had their best teams on the field with little bubbling from under.

I see us improving at a greater rate than many others. We'll see.

I am not disputing that it is possible for us to improve dramatically, i hope we do. But it seems that many only account for our possible improvement, with all other sides remaining stagnate.

As you say we'll see

 

[HARKER]

Kerridge will grow as a player, still young and he's the type like ed and Carrazzo was where they have worked hard to achieve.

I think we've all warmed to Kerridge through the latter half of this year.

Most players require some level of confidence about themselves and Kerridge looked absolutely petrified with ball in hand early this year.
We know what it's like; The more you're concerned about something going wrong, the more likely something bad will come about.

Sam just seems to be playing with a lot more 'flair' than he was earlier in the year. Mistakes will still be there, but aren't they with everyone?

 

[HARKER]

I am not disputing that it is possible for us to improve dramatically, i hope we do. But it seems that many only account for our possible improvement, with all other sides remaing stagnate.

As you we'll see

Not having a go at you Arr0w as who knows for sure what may come about.

Having watched some of the games this year and with some intuition and some forecasting, I was left a feeling of; "You won't beat us next year"

We may well not 'luck it in' against sides we beat this year (Sydney & GWS) but there are plenty others that I just don't see having the scope of improvement we have in us. That improvement may well not all fall in place in the one year, but given the intent and fire-in-the-belly, our youth has.......???

 

[Arr0w]

Not having a go at you Arr0w as who knows for sure what may come about.

Having watched some of the games this year and with some intuition and some forecasting, I was left a feeling of; "You won't beat us next year"

We may well not 'luck it in' against sides we beat this year (Sydney & GWS) but there are plenty others that I just don't see having the scope of improvement we have in us. That improvement may well not all fall in place in the one year, but given the intent and fire-in-the-belly, our youth has.......???

Agreed, our youth will continue to grow and right now that is what i am looking forward too

 

[HARKER]

Agreed, our youth will continue to grow and right now that is what i am looking forward too

What I like about us right now, is that for all our faults, I see cohesion, unity, respect for one another.......intangibles but you can see it.

Have been saying for years now that we have to grow from below and that's exactly what we're doing.
We're not relying on Murphy, Simpson & Gibbs to show us the way. The group can 'almost' function without them.
You can see that drive via Fisher, Charlie, Cuningham, SPS, Williamson, Marchbank etc. and there's nothing in that group that I don't see ramping things up next year.

Even if we don't acquire anyone of note through the trade period, I still see us improving at a larger rate than several teams we lost narrowly to this year.
Having said that though..........Midfielders please.

 

[FoeverBlues]

What type of monster

cookie monster

 

[HARKER]

Every team has to improve somewhat, but it's the range we can improve over others, is what gives me confidence.
Let's see how the lists finish up.....how injuries take hold of squads at the end of the pre-season....and which direction our game will head in.

We'll all be wiser in 6 months time.

 

[Soapy V]

I don't see my views as restricted, just realistic. The kids that we have added to the list are very good, but they will take time. Perhaps i am more patient than most

Totally agree. Couldn't be happier with what we are doing and the kids we have but to expect significant improvement in just 12 months is unrealistic IMO. That 30 plus game mark across the board is when we will see a real step up and that will be hard given the possibility of another group of kids coming in for 2018. The odds are that our list will be a lot younger

 

[Soapy V]

You are right Harks anything is possible, if several teams are crueled by injury, as were GWS & Sydney when we beat them.

A lot will depend upon trade period. Get some talented younger mature bodies (Kelly Hopper Balic etc) and we could win 7-8 games. Will need a good run with injuries as our depth is still poor. Murphy Gibbs Kruezer Docherty maybe Simmo have had great years and been injury free. Effectively carried the side. There will be a transition as their input fades and as the kids start to takeover over. Anything is possible but with such a young list things would need to go our way. For me 2018 is all about more experience and games into the kids. Maybe even moreso than this year

 

[HARKER]

What we achieved that night was wonderful. I also see great signs of our growth in our loses, surely evident in my posts in every game day and autopsy thread.
For some reason you have singled me out for having a realistic view, one that others have as well. Perhaps you would have more credibility in my eyes if you shared your angst with them as well

Even at this early stage and with the 'limited' knowledge we have of what teams may look like in March '18, what are your current expectations against the following teams, next year:

Brisbane:
North Melbourne:
West Coast:
St.Kilda:
Essendon:
Richmond:
Fremantle:
Collingwood:
Melbourne:
Gold Coast:

Beat those teams alone even once and we're already looking at tenth or better.
Of course it's impossible to project how much better our squad will be after the trade period, as much as it is for any other team but here are my reasons for confidence next year;

1. Many of the games we could have/should have won, slipped away from us in the last quarter. Too many young guys tiring.
2. We seem to have a cohesive group that genuinely play as a team.
3. I feel we have a better coaching group than many of the aforementioned teams.
4. The extra year should see growth in many of our young players. Which do you see going backwards? I see the step-up far higher than for any fall.

We'll need some injury 'luck' as Port Adelaide and Richmond have had this year, but I think our finishing range is far broader than a bottom three.

 

[Soapy V]

Even at this early stage and with the 'limited' knowledge we have of what teams may look like in March '18, what are your current expectations against the following teams, next year:

Brisbane:
North Melbourne:
West Coast:
St.Kilda:
Essendon:
Richmond:
Fremantle:
Collingwood:
Melbourne:
Gold Coast:

Beat those teams alone even once and we're already looking at tenth or better.
Of course it's impossible to project how much better our squad will be after the trade period, as much as it is for any other team but here are my reasons for confidence next year;

1. Many of the games we could have/should have won, slipped away from us in the last quarter. Too many young guys tiring.
2. We seem to have a cohesive group that genuinely play as a team.
3. I feel we have a better coaching group than many of the aforementioned teams.
4. The extra year should see growth in many of our young players. Which do you see going backwards? I see the step-up far higher than for any fall.

We'll need some injury 'luck' as Port Adelaide and Richmond have had this year, but I think our finishing range is far broader than a bottom three.

Very hypothetical. Who knows? Especially hard to judge prior to trade period which could make a massive difference. Big issue for me is getting experience into kids. As Arrow has correctly pointed out it takes time

 

[Juddernaut08]

Even at this early stage and with the 'limited' knowledge we have of what teams may look like in March '18, what are your current expectations against the following teams, next year:

Brisbane:
North Melbourne:
West Coast:
St.Kilda:
Essendon:
Richmond:
Fremantle:
Collingwood:
Melbourne:
Gold Coast:

Beat those teams alone even once and we're already looking at tenth or better.
Of course it's impossible to project how much better our squad will be after the trade period, as much as it is for any other team but here are my reasons for confidence next year;

1. Many of the games we could have/should have won, slipped away from us in the last quarter. Too many young guys tiring.
2. We seem to have a cohesive group that genuinely play as a team.
3. I feel we have a better coaching group than many of the aforementioned teams.
4. The extra year should see growth in many of our young players. Which do you see going backwards? I see the step-up far higher than for any fall.

We'll need some injury 'luck' as Port Adelaide and Richmond have had this year, but I think our finishing range is far broader than a bottom three.

I agree with all except Melbourne. Where do they drop off? Jones another year older? Rest of their list is a few years ahead of us and nearing or already in their prime

 

[therubbernub]

I am not disputing that it is possible for us to improve dramatically, i hope we do. But it seems that many only account for our possible improvement, with all other sides remaining stagnate.

As you we'll see

Thats the thing that I see- that a lot of the clubs above us will not improve because they are already at max level for their list- they are plateauing in performance, whereas we are closing the gap fast. Once the gap has been closed, then it is multifactorial as to whether you are successful in a year. Obviously injuries is the number one wildcard that is dealt to each and every team every year, and it is the nature and extent of those injuries and how it relates to that teams depth which determines how it effects team performance. But that is just one factor. Another factor is how the way the game is played as it evolves, having the ideal list to combat the competitions pace setters (typically the previous years premiers) Another factor is the teams ability to endure - physically, mentally both n and off the field.
So the way I see it- our destiny is in our hands. IMO after this coming trade/draft period we will have the cattle to compete with the best (in fact with an injured list we have shown this already against GWS, adelaide, swans, demons, bombers) and whilst our list depth wont be as strong as other clubs, the backbone will be there. If we maintain our resolve and play to our evolving game plan to the best of our ability then I see a fringe 8 result for us.

 

[HARKER]

Very hypothetical. Who knows? Especially hard to judge prior to trade period which could make a massive difference. Big issue for me is getting experience into kids. As Arrow has correctly pointed out it takes time

Of course it's hypothetical and it's there for consideration.
Do we think we're in a better position going forward than those clubs? I see us as being so.

I agree with all except Melbourne. Where do they drop off? Jones another year older? Rest of their list is a few years ahead of us and nearing or already in their prime

I don't worry about Melbourne as much as others seem to.
Sure they have some good players but some are also conditional.
We probably should have beat them a few weeks back. It's the same old Melbourne but we've changed/are changing.

 

[therubbernub]

Even at this early stage and with the 'limited' knowledge we have of what teams may look like in March '18, what are your current expectations against the following teams, next year:

Brisbane:
North Melbourne:
West Coast:
St.Kilda:
Essendon:
Richmond:
Fremantle:
Collingwood:
Melbourne:
Gold Coast:

Beat those teams alone even once and we're already looking at tenth or better.
Of course it's impossible to project how much better our squad will be after the trade period, as much as it is for any other team but here are my reasons for confidence next year;

1. Many of the games we could have/should have won, slipped away from us in the last quarter. Too many young guys tiring.
2. We seem to have a cohesive group that genuinely play as a team.
3. I feel we have a better coaching group than many of the aforementioned teams.
4. The extra year should see growth in many of our young players. Which do you see going backwards? I see the step-up far higher than for any fall.

We'll need some injury 'luck' as Port Adelaide and Richmond have had this year, but I think our finishing range is far broader than a bottom three.

Brisbane: Will surge along with us
North Melbourne: will sag
West Coast: Will sag due to retirements
St.Kilda: will plateau/compete with us
Essendon:will plateau/compete with us
Richmond: will plateau or maybe fall due to being worked out.
Fremantle: will stay down
Collingwood: will improve (feck it!)
Melbourne: will plateau/compete with us
Gold Coast: will stay down due to lost players and culture