Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Metalcrusher]

JOM has bodgey prodgey knees ... didn't stop dorkcorn.

 

[rp84]

1

JOM has bodgey prodgey knees ... didn't stop dorkcorn.

high risk, high reward...if it doesnt come off, they have a 4th string mid as their no1 mid (mitchell). See how far that gets them. If it does come off and JOM is fit, well **** them

 

[ShanDog]

I agree with some of the sentiment, but even uncontracted, 13 would have been about right for Gibbs. Contract obviously pumps that up a bit (my opinion was 13 and CEY or a high 2nd rounder).

Shiel is expected to be a top 5 player (at least by me), which is a class above Gibba's career so far (hope he absolutely kills it this year, and we finally see him become a superstar- completely possible seeing how determined he looks). Even uncontracted, every melbourne club would move heaven and earth for him. 2 firsts it would be, comfortably (again, IMO).

If he was out of contract, 13 would have been bang on, maybe with a little extra coming our way if we wanted to be ruthless about it. It was the three years of contract that meant we set an over the top price and dared them to meet it. They didn't, despite it probably being in their interest.

Given all that, an uncontracted Shiel or similar should be a top 10 pick, probably a little extra too, but there's a lot more to trading than that - GWS might have a player from us they are determined to get, or they might be hamstrung by other trades like we were this year too. It's very difficult to predict what will get a trade done from the outside.

 

[Soapy V]

Injury history should not be ignored - but he played 23 games last year and fell just short of 40 goals.

Clubs will do their homework on him and if they deem the risk to be one worth taking then he's going to be in high demand.

We'd be silly not to be one of those clubs.

fair enough. it's not just now but talls with knee issues seem to fall away quickly later in their careers. agility goes. it's a gamble but most recruiting is

 

[Coona Blues]

Bad news team - Peter Wright has re-signed with the Suns for a further two years.

Bugger....loved the rumour and love the potential/performance of the big fella. Soft spot for Suns as in Qld and not a Lions fan on account of my old man who was a St Kilda(1966), Hawthorn ('70's) then Lions supporter, when they had their run.

Narrows the field of trade targets dramatically for me.

 

[El Topo]

Bad news team - Peter Wright has re-signed with the Suns for a further two years.

There's disasters, and then there's our 2014 draft

 

[ParapMarkets]

I'm glad Peter Wright has re-signed with GC, people concerned about Fyfe being a "messiah" call but this guy would've also been very expensive, without the Brownlow or consistent performances to back it up. I would rather we develop our own than spend up big time chasing another clubs high draft pick KPF. Also, there should be some excellent KPF talent at around our first pick this year if that is the way we wanted to go.

Hopper is the one I hope we can get, he will still be pretty expensive but he would be a perfect compliment to Cripps and SPS. Hopefully he plays most of the year forward or on a flank and doesn't get too much midfield time, this would help keep down his trade value.

 

[HARKER]

I'm glad Peter Wright has re-signed with GC, people concerned about Fyfe being a "messiah" call but this guy would've also been very expensive, without the Brownlow or consistent performances to back it up. I would rather we develop our own than spend up big time chasing another clubs high draft pick KPF. Also, there should be some excellent KPF talent at around our first pick this year if that is the way we wanted to go.

Hopper is the one I hope we can get, he will still be pretty expensive but he would be a perfect compliment to Cripps and SPS. Hopefully he plays most of the year forward or on a flank and doesn't get too much midfield time, this would help keep down his trade value.

I do also and largely for the fact that I feel by getting the mids in place, it will give us a far larger benefit than letting a first selection go for Wright.

As a matter of fact, I'd be just a little wary of talls at this stage given just how much work we've already put in, by way of attracting Marchbank, Plowman and recruiting Weitering, McKay, Macreadie, Glass-McCasker and Kerr........and even then, Silvagni & CCurnow are hardly smalls or mids either.

In a couple of years time we'll have Cripps & SPS as our mids and hoping for the likes of Fisher & Cuningham to come on.
Now that is thin pickings in an area that you can't be a serious competitor, without at least half a dozen quality mids and solid back-up thereafter.

 

[Iva Bigun]

You can cross Peter Wright off the list, unfortunately. Re-signed with the Suns for a further two years.

That leaves Patton as the only key forward available of any note. GWS would want to sign him up fairly quickly, because the offers will come and the money will be big.



One target is realistic but two - whilst certainly possible - may be a stretch too far.

I feel a lot hinges on what happens with Gibbs at the end of the year. If he stays then we may settle for one big name, but if something goes through with Adelaide it paves a very clear path for us to go after two.

As for needing to hit the draft again...you are certainly correct. SOS won't trade out of a draft completely but he's not afraid to make some big calls.

My feeling is we'll trade into the 2017 draft to hit that hard + bring in some names discussed here, with the 2018 draft at least initially seeming to have been cut into. After 3 years of aggressive drafting and trading - plus perhaps a FA signing - we'll back ourselves to climb the ladder in 2018.

We have shown a desire to hold onto top 5 picks and that may not change, but I do think we'll be willing to deal our first if we are confident it falls outside of that.



All four of the FA I mentioned would be very good additions for different reasons. Obviously both Fyfe and Martin would cost mega bucks...but for the right team the deal would be worth it.

Barass knows what he is talking about but he would also acknowledge that things can change. A play for Fyfe may be unlikely, but I wouldn't rule it out completely just yet.



Miller will have a big target on his back. Maybe not destined to be an A grade footballer but he won't be far off it.

Would love to see him in the middle alongside SPS and Cripps. Midfield would still need a lot of work but that's a pretty good young trio to work around.

Miller and 2MP are 2 peas in a pod, now Peter has signed I would be amazed if Touk left. Martin however may be gettable

 

[thylacine60]

you just tantalize us.........

 

[Jeremias]

Miller and 2MP are 2 peas in a pod, now Peter has signed I would be amazed if Touk left. Martin however may be gettable

Martin is a very classy footballer. Couldn't say no to someone of his ability.

WA boy though so if he did choose to leave I wonder if he'd go home rather than somewhere in Victoria.

 

[BlueGum]

Martin is a very classy footballer. Couldn't say no to someone of his ability.

WA boy though so if he did choose to leave I wonder if he'd go home rather than somewhere in Victoria.

Or Carlton - home away from home for a discerning WA contingent

 

[Metalcrusher]

Martin is a very classy footballer. Couldn't say no to someone of his ability.

WA boy though so if he did choose to leave I wonder if he'd go home rather than somewhere in Victoria.

I could ... not what our club needs right now J

http://titusoreily.com/fun-defences-dustin-martin/

 

[Metalcrusher]

That's just for the humour value ... not the nitty gritty stuff he has been linked to in the past ...

 

[Blue__Balls]

I could ... not what our club needs right now J

http://titusoreily.com/fun-defences-dustin-martin/

Think they're talking Jack Martin...could be wrong though.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

JOM has bodgey prodgey knees ... didn't stop dorkcorn.

Clubs are different positions. Hawks coming off 3-peat with a list of ageing stars. Worth a risk for them. If it doesn't work out, they aren't much worse off than what they would be in a couple years.
If we had taken a punt on him and it didn't work out, we would be crippled and hanging around the bottom for another 5 years.

 

[rp84]

Think they're talking Jack Martin...could be wrong though.

Yeah, that was related to jack martin

 

[LanceRomance]

Miller and 2MP are 2 peas in a pod, now Peter has signed I would be amazed if Touk left. Martin however may be gettable

Martin would be a pretty massive pick up considering how he was rated 2-3 years ago

 

[Carl]

Here we go again? Offer some actual cohesive discussion instead of ragging on other people's ideas. Here's my thinking:

Player contracts are going up, it's only a matter of time before the new pay deal goes through and the salary cap jumps accordingly. Futhermore, Free Agents (the kind you want, anyway) typically get inflated price tags as well. $700k for a 27 year old forward who has never kicked less than 30 goals in a season (that was his debut season in 2011, he's been kicking 40+ a year since then including two seasons of 50+), who also costs us nothing in a trade - good deal.

And if we're still a bottom 3 team in 2018 then this reset has failed spectacularly. Our 2018 first rounder should be somewhere from Pick 8-14, and with Ben Silvagni considered at this stage to be a potential first rounder, we'd be able to get him with later picks anyway under the Father/Son system. Or, as I said, trade whatever we get for Gibbs if he leaves (Gibbs for Wright is a good deal for us in 12 months time).

Anything to add?

The problem I have is players who perform better than Breust will want the same money. The reason Hawthorn/Geelong stayed at the top for so long is because they recruit players that fit into they salary cap structure- always helps when your at the top. But until your a good enough team to bring players in on what there worth, then keep bringing in youth.

I'm not ragging your idea i'm just sick and tired of this club taking short cuts on recruiting and being mediocre. If it takes us 2-3 years to get this right then i'm prepared to wait.

 

[Funk]

Look at the market. One first rounder for a broken down O'Meara and similar for B+ Prestia.

Shiel and 2MP would be two first rounders, IMO.

SOS is a tight arse.

He won't be overpaying for anyone.

 

[Funk]

You can cross Peter Wright off the list, unfortunately. Re-signed with the Suns for a further two years.

That leaves Patton as the only key forward available of any note. GWS would want to sign him up fairly quickly, because the offers will come and the money will be big.



One target is realistic but two - whilst certainly possible - may be a stretch too far.

I feel a lot hinges on what happens with Gibbs at the end of the year. If he stays then we may settle for one big name, but if something goes through with Adelaide it paves a very clear path for us to go after two.

As for needing to hit the draft again...you are certainly correct. SOS won't trade out of a draft completely but he's not afraid to make some big calls.

My feeling is we'll trade into the 2017 draft to hit that hard + bring in some names discussed here, with the 2018 draft at least initially seeming to have been cut into. After 3 years of aggressive drafting and trading - plus perhaps a FA signing - we'll back ourselves to climb the ladder in 2018.

We have shown a desire to hold onto top 5 picks and that may not change, but I do think we'll be willing to deal our first if we are confident it falls outside of that.



All four of the FA I mentioned would be very good additions for different reasons. Obviously both Fyfe and Martin would cost mega bucks...but for the right team the deal would be worth it.

Barass knows what he is talking about but he would also acknowledge that things can change. A play for Fyfe may be unlikely, but I wouldn't rule it out completely just yet.



Miller will have a big target on his back. Maybe not destined to be an A grade footballer but he won't be far off it.

Would love to see him in the middle alongside SPS and Cripps. Midfield would still need a lot of work but that's a pretty good young trio to work around.

Touk Miller is a very good player.

Was also Captain of VIC Metro IIRC and I was hoping we might get him to Carlton.

He went at pick 29.

We took DVR at pick 28 - what a waste!!!

 

[rp84]

SOS is a tight arse.

He won't be overpaying for anyone.

I agree, which means we wont get any of these players. And, I'm ok with that. More than happy to keep our likely top 4 pick and pick our own future superstar mid.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

We are no longer interested in Fyfe.

We are not amused.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Unpopular opinion time.

I think Boekhorst has more chance of making it than Cuningham. I don't really see the criticism of Boekhorst being spacially unaware and I don't see him being soft when compared to other wingers. Nothing like Lucas imo.

He was disappointing this season no doubt, but his 27 possession game in the pre-season against a full strength Swans in game 3 was impressive. Cuningham looks impressive but he has never shown an ability to win the ball. Cuningham has a selectors advantage but I still like Boekhorst.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Zac Fisher will be remembered as a fantastic recruiting decision by Carlton. I'm not sure of his impact this year, due to size, but he can seriously play and will be a huge asset for the Blues.