Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[HARKER]

Most of the players you listed already are a part of our best 22. I just can't see them from age 20-22 being able to consistently perform well enough to push for a top 4 spot so soon.

But you're right about our drafting and coaching. Can really get the sense of purpose to everything being done and the process feels right. To be honest, I haven't felt like we've been in such a good position for a long time but there's still a long way to go as you said.

Need to nail the next 2 drafts and to do it we need better picks.

They're part of our best 22 because that's the way we've chosen to go in our rebuild, otherwise we may have held onto Tuohy, Henderson etc.

What is required now, is for those guys to get fitter, faster, stronger etc. Development is key but you can't but be buoyed to see the way the class of '16 have shown up. Who would have thought for Macreadie, Williamson and Polson to be tracking they way they have been. I know we've only seen the one game with Polson involved but he's a player...

Drafting is important but I'll be surprised if we don't bring 3-4 best 22 players by way of trade in the next two periods and then 2019? Who knows?

 

[Metalcrusher]

They're part of our best 22 because that's the way we've chosen to go in our rebuild, otherwise we may have held onto Tuohy, Henderson etc.

What is required now, is for those guys to get fitter, faster, stronger etc. Development is key but you can't but be buoyed to see the way the class of '16 have shown up. Who would have thought for Macreadie, Williamson and Polson to be tracking they way they have been. I know we've only seen the one game with Polson involved but he's a player...

Drafting is important but I'll be surprised if we don't bring 3-4 best 22 players by way of trade in the next two periods and then 2019? Who knows?

Sentence structure police *cough*

 

[HARKER]

Sentence structure police *cough*

I just write and what happens, happens.
Wasn't bad though, was it?

 

[ParapMarkets]

Over the next 2 years we are likely to lose most of: Simpson, Gibbs, Kruezer, Casboult, Rowe, Thomas, White, Army. Murphy will be into his 30's and not far off retirement either.

These will be players that will be largely replaced by 18 year olds.

By the end of 2018, the bulk of our reset is largely over, and our talent will be concentrated in the 18-22 year old age bracket. You don't win flags or push for top 4 with a list chock a block full of 18-22 year olds who have 10-50 games experience on average. You need a couple of years of continuity, getting AFL bodies, and experience (games under the belt).

Within 3 years time to the end of next year we will have pruned back over 40 list spots, and brought in 30+ teenagers. We are going to need a few years of development into the kids after the reset finishes before we are a seriously competitive side.

2020 onwards is when we're back in amongst it again. The start of the next decade we will be pushing for a top 4 spot, and that will continue for the next 5 or so years (when our list management strategy changes somewhat).

Fair enough with regards to a fair bit of your post. I think a few of the guys you mentioned that need to be replaced have already been replaced ( White, Army). I don't think Krooz will be replaced, Gibbs will be replaced by Hopper (imo). I think generally you make it sound a lot worse than it is, we don't need to replace every single player over the age of 25 instantly and quite a few of those that will be replaced will be done voluntarily.

 

[gandaal]

We will play finals 2018

Even when I disagree I always appreciate how positive you are.

 

[HARKER]

I don't see Saad with us either, unless there is some movement on the way out.

Same as Schache. If Harry McKay was to be moving off, Schache may be a premium target.

 

[Wickzki]

You could argue the same about Charlie if you wanted to- dubious character / poor judgement blah blah blah. It was a stupid mistake made by a young kid. We all made mistakes / error in judgement when we were kids lets not be too judgmental.

Completely spot on.

Let me add this. I know that the saying goes "past behavior is the most likely indicator of future behavior." However, I fully believe that people can become reformed and improved individuals. I know this to be true because I believe that I am an example of this.

This is something that only one or two posters on here know about me. But it's also why I want to see guys like Charlie and Lachie Whitfield succeed as both players and human beings after careless, reckless mistakes.

When I was living and working in the United States back in the mid-2000s (2005-2007) in exceptionally high level professional sports I suffered a stroke. A combination of bad lifestyle choices and working harder than Alan Bond (upwards of 22 hour work days, 5+ days a week for months on end). I grew up a naive kid who wanted to help everyone and believed that the only way of a small western suburbs of Melbourne kid succeeding in life was to work as hard as humanly possible. I wanted my reports to be the envy of all of my peers. And they were. I was able to identify talent at an exceptional level. But it came with a massive consequence.

When I got out of hospital it was determined by my support group that I could no longer live out of hotels. At least not until I was fully recovered. I was given a choice to either move back to Australia and recover surrounded by family and friends or to stick with it, move in with people that I did not know and recover until I was good to return to work. I decided that the former was as good as giving up and feared that I would lose the opportunity to return. Thereby, I chose the latter option.

Unfortunately, the people that I chose - based on a recommendation of a peer - to live with were up to no good. Internet based crimes were committed in my name. As I was there 24/7 recuperating I couldn't possibly deny that I was not there at the times that these crimes occurred. My public appointed attorney advised me that given the circumstances that my best bet was to take a plea deal. The plea deal was awful for a first time offender (32+ months inside the state custody) but for someone from overseas to have committed said crimes he told me that was the best that I could hope for (which I now believe to be bullshit but that's besides the point). I took the plea deal. I didn't fight it.

Through the utter stupidity of the people who did commit the crimes continuing to commit crimes in my name while I was in prison I was released after 24 months and got out of the final 8 months of my sentence. It took that long for the state to get that stuff sorted.

Although I forfeited over two years of my life to this day I believe that it was the best thing to ever happen to me. I learned so much about life and what it takes to succeed in it. I took every behavior class available for me. I busted my ass in work assignments. I attended various denomination church sessions, not because I'm religious (I'm not really) but because it was an opportunity to learn more about life. Every religion has invaluable lessons that can be imparted upon those willing to learn. I also learned that not everyone in prison, as guilty as they may be of their crime, are necessarily bad people. In fact, some of the best people that I've ever had the privilege of knowing are doing long sentences and some had been there before I was even born (I was in my mid-twenties).

Since prison I have earned three separate university degrees, have contributed to several of my deep seated passions and have done freelance work for companies ranging from sole trading self employed companies and several Fortune 500 corporations. Last week I finally launched Gamephasis and have already secured over 40 different permanent media partners including several of the largest gaming developer and publishers in the world.

I believe that everyone is capable of becoming a high functioning member of society capable of leaving their mark in a multitude of different ways. So what if some players like Charlie Curnow or Whitfield have committed acts that could deem them reprehensible in the scheme of being a professional sportsperson. We cannot control what they've done in the past. We are all equally capable of committing silly, stupid mistakes. What we can control is what we do in the future. If we are committed to creating a positive change in our own lives and living it in a positive manner that contributes to society in some way then that is our function as human beings.

The only people that we should hold in contempt are those who repeatedly make poor decisions and show absolutely no sign of desire in correcting that behavior.

That's my two cents on the matter.

P.S. Sorry for going off-topic as much as I did.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I don't see Saad with us either, unless there is some movement on the way out.

Same as Schache. If Harry McKay was to be moving off, Schache may be a premium target.

What are we getting for Harry?

 

[Blueyourmyboy!!]

IIRC from his draft videos Schache got all his goals from mobility and smarts - not crashing packs or taking pack marks.

He seemed more like a Westhoff/Gunston type player than a Lynch/McCartin

Sounds more like Darcy Moore. Not quite the go to man

 

[HARKER]

What are we getting for Harry?

I'll be happy when we sign him, but he's the one player I can see moving off. Nothing to support that other than a feeling.

 

[El Topo]

If Richmond or St Kilda land Shache Collingwood will get desperate and in their infinite wisdom may just land us a second rounder for Levi.

Levi for a pick that turns into Saad? It's a tough deal but that's how SOS likes them.

 

[Cutz]

You could argue the same about Charlie if you wanted to- dubious character / poor judgement blah blah blah. It was a stupid mistake made by a young kid. We all made mistakes / error in judgement when we were kids lets not be too judgmental.

I've got a feeling that what you are speaking of.. Didn't really happen..

Just a hunch..

On SM-G935F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cutz]

If they can sense a lot of success they will stick together there's no doubt about it.

Look at the Cats and Hawks in recent times. Most of them stuck together for the flags.

It's still a very 'plastic' club.. Couldnt see them hanging around for a club that has been around for 5 minutes...

Particularly when there's us.. Coll, Ess continually circling with fat cheque books... If they don't win a flag soon.. I reckon there will be a fairly big exit..

On SM-G935F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ferrisb]

What Ben does this year matters not... next year is when Dodoro is going to be watching him. And if Dodoro thinks Ben is worth a first round pick, he will pull the trigger.

Being a friend of the family isn't going to help much either.

I think Dodoro bid on Jack as almost a in-joke with SOS.

#1) pretending like he would end up at Essendon
#2) knowing there was zero chance Carlton wouldn't match
#3) stroking Jack's ego, by him attracting a bid, not just falling into our laps

I doubt Dodoro will be bidding any harder on BSOS than any other list manager.

 

[Aphrodite]

I think Dodoro bid on Jack as almost a in-joke with SOS.

#1) pretending like he would end up at Essendon
#2) knowing there was zero chance Carlton wouldn't match
#3) stroking Jack's ego, by him attracting a bid, not just falling into our laps

I doubt Dodoro will be bidding any harder on BSOS than any other list manager.

#DodoroTrades

 

[Malifice]

I don't think Krooz will be replaced

Kruezer is an unrestricted free agent this year.

As a ruckman who is in great form, he will attract some very good offers from rival clubs (Bulldogs looking most likely). 4 years at 650-700k per year ballpark.

Even if we match that offer, he might still elect to leave. He's unrestricted.

We'll get decent (Band 2-3) compo though - a pick in the 19-22 range.

Gibbs will be replaced by Hopper (imo). I think generally you make it sound a lot worse than it is, we don't need to replace every single player over the age of 25 instantly and quite a few of those that will be replaced will be done voluntarily.

Im not making it sound worse, its just that you understimate the shit we found ourselves in pre the list 'reset'. We blew all our early draft picks from 2008-2014 (Lucas, Menzel, Watson, Yarran, Bootsma all gone, Boekhoest with one foot out the door) barring Cripps; leaving a massive hole in the list.

The 2015 and 2016 drafts have gone part of the way to fixing this hole, but we have a long way to go (officially still the 2017 and 2018 drafts to 'finish' the 'reset' of the list). We also need to nail every single pick in order to fill the gaps we need to fill.

Once the 'reset' is complete at the end of next years draft, we'll have gutted 50 or so players from the 2014 list, and have brought in a bunch of 18-22 year old kids.

Those kids then need time to gell together and develop. A year or two at least (during which time we make use of free agency to get in talented players as top ups).

2020 will see us fighting it out for a top four spot. At that stage we'll have a list of talented 20-25 year olds, with 50-100 games of experience under their belts playing together.

 

[Arr0w]

Kruezer is an unrestricted free agent this year.

As a ruckman who is in great form, he will attract some very good offers from rival clubs (Bulldogs looking most likely). 4 years at 650-700k per year ballpark.

Even if we match that offer, he might still elect to leave. He's unrestricted.

We'll get decent (Band 2-3) compo though - a pick in the 19-22 range.



Im not making it sound worse, its just that you understimate the shit we found ourselves in pre the list 'reset'. We blew all our early draft picks from 2008-2014 (Lucas, Menzel, Watson, Yarran, Bootsma all gone, Boekhoest with one foot out the door) barring Cripps; leaving a massive hole in the list.

The 2015 and 2016 drafts have gone part of the way to fixing this hole, but we have a long way to go (officially still the 2017 and 2018 drafts to 'finish' the 'reset' of the list). We also need to nail every single pick in order to fill the gaps we need to fill.

Once the 'reset' is complete at the end of next years draft, we'll have gutted 50 or so players from the 2014 list, and have brought in a bunch of 18-22 year old kids.

Those kids then need time to gell together and develop. A year or two at least (during which time we make use of free agency to get in talented players as top ups).

2020 will see us fighting it out for a top four spot. At that stage we'll have a list of talented 20-25 year olds, with 50-100 games of experience under their belts playing together.

I agree with the majority of your assessment, although I see us breaking into the 8 in 2020 for the first time

 

[rp84]

Completely spot on.

Let me add this. I know that the saying goes "past behavior is the most likely indicator of future behavior." However, I fully believe that people can become reformed and improved individuals. I know this to be true because I believe that I am an example of this.

This is something that only one or two posters on here know about me. But it's also why I want to see guys like Charlie and Lachie Whitfield succeed as both players and human beings after careless, reckless mistakes.

When I was living and working in the United States back in the mid-2000s (2005-2007) in exceptionally high level professional sports I suffered a stroke. A combination of bad lifestyle choices and working harder than Alan Bond (upwards of 22 hour work days, 5+ days a week for months on end). I grew up a naive kid who wanted to help everyone and believed that the only way of a small western suburbs of Melbourne kid succeeding in life was to work as hard as humanly possible. I wanted my reports to be the envy of all of my peers. And they were. I was able to identify talent at an exceptional level. But it came with a massive consequence.

When I got out of hospital it was determined by my support group that I could no longer live out of hotels. At least not until I was fully recovered. I was given a choice to either move back to Australia and recover surrounded by family and friends or to stick with it, move in with people that I did not know and recover until I was good to return to work. I decided that the former was as good as giving up and feared that I would lose the opportunity to return. Thereby, I chose the latter option.

Unfortunately, the people that I chose - based on a recommendation of a peer - to live with were up to no good. Internet based crimes were committed in my name. As I was there 24/7 recuperating I couldn't possibly deny that I was not there at the times that these crimes occurred. My public appointed attorney advised me that given the circumstances that my best bet was to take a plea deal. The plea deal was awful for a first time offender (32+ months inside the state custody) but for someone from overseas to have committed said crimes he told me that was the best that I could hope for (which I now believe to be bullshit but that's besides the point). I took the plea deal. I didn't fight it.

Through the utter stupidity of the people who did commit the crimes continuing to commit crimes in my name while I was in prison I was released after 24 months and got out of the final 8 months of my sentence. It took that long for the state to get that stuff sorted.

Although I forfeited over two years of my life to this day I believe that it was the best thing to ever happen to me. I learned so much about life and what it takes to succeed in it. I took every behavior class available for me. I busted my ass in work assignments. I attended various denomination church sessions, not because I'm religious (I'm not really) but because it was an opportunity to learn more about life. Every religion has invaluable lessons that can be imparted upon those willing to learn. I also learned that not everyone in prison, as guilty as they may be of their crime, are necessarily bad people. In fact, some of the best people that I've ever had the privilege of knowing are doing long sentences and some had been there before I was even born (I was in my mid-twenties).

Since prison I have earned three separate university degrees, have contributed to several of my deep seated passions and have done freelance work for companies ranging from sole trading self employed companies and several Fortune 500 corporations. Last week I finally launched Gamephasis and have already secured over 40 different permanent media partners including several of the largest gaming developer and publishers in the world.

I believe that everyone is capable of becoming a high functioning member of society capable of leaving their mark in a multitude of different ways. So what if some players like Charlie Curnow or Whitfield have committed acts that could deem them reprehensible in the scheme of being a professional sportsperson. We cannot control what they've done in the past. We are all equally capable of committing silly, stupid mistakes. What we can control is what we do in the future. If we are committed to creating a positive change in our own lives and living it in a positive manner that contributes to society in some way then that is our function as human beings.

The only people that we should hold in contempt are those who repeatedly make poor decisions and show absolutely no sign of desire in correcting that behavior.

That's my two cents on the matter.

P.S. Sorry for going off-topic as much as I did.

Great story mate

 

[Malifice]

I agree with the majority of your assessment, although I see us breaking into the 8 in 2020 for the first time

Thats ballpark for mine. We should finish firmly in the 8 in 2020, and then be looking to really be a dominant side (akin to Geelong/ Hawks from recent years) from 2020-2025.

 

[HARKER]

Thats ballpark for mine. We should finish firmly in the 8 in 2020, and then be looking to really be a dominant side (akin to Geelong/ Hawks from recent years) from 2020-2025.

Things have changed since then.
Free Agency. Trading of future picks. Easier to get to your club of choice.

I don't know when Carlton will make the 8 any more than anybody else does, but we've done a lot of things right to give ourselves the chance to be a force sooner than later.

 

[Soapy V]

I agree with the majority of your assessment, although I see us breaking into the 8 in 2020 for the first time

Yep. You need to get that 30-40 plus games into the kids before they become consistent influential players. Unfortunately that takes time

 

[Azul]

Sentence structure police *cough*

prescriptivist.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

If they bring in wildcard finals, maybe a 5% chance, but I very much doubt it

But sure we are all hopeful

Are the Bombers getting back on the gear again???

 

[Malifice]

Things have changed since then.
Free Agency. Trading of future picks. Easier to get to your club of choice.

I don't know when Carlton will make the 8 any more than anybody else does, but we've done a lot of things right to give ourselves the chance to be a force sooner than later.

We'll be making extensive use of free agency starting in 2018 onwards. From now till then the focus is on 23 y/o and younger players (primarily though the draft)

The only F/A we'll see this year will likely be one of Kruzer or Casboult leaving. With that loss likely to attract a decent pick, its unlikely we'll be getting one in this year.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

What are we getting for Harry?

A MAGNUM!