Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[BluesRule]

Yes. I expect to see a fair few [8 years/ 10 million] or [3 years at 5 million] type deals getting thrown around.

I agree and expect clubs ot throw out huge offers to have a crack at a flag or get supporters excited. Eg. could see Schache getting a $1m pa offer from the Tiges for example (as it is only $800K in old currency)

A lot of clubs are struggling with tall stocks:
Could Casboult and White's free agent value increase beyond the norm, as they are proven AFL depth and will not cost a pick? Band 3 could be a 20-30 pick to us, but a club like Collingwood may be desperate for a Casboult to protect Darcy Moore?
Is Liam Jones worth a second rounder if he makes a successful AFL return and would we trade him?
If KJ makes it back to AFL level do we trade him? Young and talented may have some currency if he keeps kicking goals.

Probably dreaming but it may boost our rebuild to lose say Casboult (in great form/on good FA$$$) for the currency to chase Hopper.

We will lock in the kids (C Curnow, Mckay etc) on heavily frontloaded contracts. Probably extend a few like Plowman, Machbank, Docherty etc.

That leaves us with a massive 'warchest' come 2018 and 2019 to pay for Cripps and Weitering when they come out of contract, and to land a free agent or two (and to dangle in front of a player for trade bait).

Like that strategy but perhaps it would be wise to organise a contract upgrade and extension for our good draftee's now not in 2018/9.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Yes. I expect to see a fair few [8 years/ 10 million] or [3 years at 5 million] type deals getting thrown around.

There are only 2-3 players worth those deals, regardless of the cap. I actually think the biggest difference will be the contracts offered to good or young (rather than great) players.

Say Gibbs was a free agent for example, clubs will be able to afford to offer him way over what we would currently consider reasonable value.

 

[Wickzki]

Gold Coast are ahead of us on the ladder....

If you think that the Gold Coast Suns are heading anywhere then boy do I have a bridge to sell you.

They may be ahead of us on the ladder, by percentage, but we have a very clear path. What are the Suns trying to do exactly?

Are they rebuilding? They keep bringing in older players such as Michael Barlow, Pearce Hanley, Matt Rosa and Jarrod Grant.

Are they trying to play winning football? Their team selection often suggests otherwise. Picking younger players who haven't earned their spot in the side through mediocre performances in the NEAFL over more in form players.

The fact is that they're only ahead of us on percentage when given all of their starting assets they ought to be in the thick of finals action. They're as rudderless as any team in the AFL. Honestly, it's hard to tell which Queensland-based AFL side is managed the worst. It's as though they're in constant competition to outdo the other.

As someone who has spent the most of my Australian-living time in Melbourne, where even if Carlton's doing poorly, you can get to an ultra competitive AFL match I find it somewhat infuriating.

Edit: Even with the draft that they had we've got more and better players under the age of 22 than what they do. We've been rebuilding for 2 trade periods. They've had several.

 

[Juddernaut08]

What are people's thoughts on Casboult?

1. Averaging about 2 goals a game (kicked 17.4 so far).
2. Kicking has improved.
3. Marking still elite.
4. Does a bit around the ground.
5. Only 27 years and 2 months old.
6. Bonus: Can ruck, Tom Boyd style.
7. On track for approx 40 goals.

IMO - in a top side, Casboult would be an elite 2nd forward or a decent 1st forward. We have probably another 5 years barring injury of top-level football ability left from him.

I think he has heaps of value to us, and should not be let go or traded.

 

[Stamos]

An inducement to have them pony up a 1st and 2nd rounder maybe? Its not rocket science.

That would be perhaps a 3 or 4 pick upgrade. Won't need our 3rd to get their late 1st and late 2nd

 

[zeeCFC]

Yoo have we considered whether we'd get a priority pick if we finish bottom 2? Are they still a thing?

 

[Wickzki]

That leaves us with a massive 'warchest' come 2018 and 2019 to pay for Cripps and Weitering when they come out of contract, and to land a free agent or two (and to dangle in front of a player for trade bait).

Jacob is contracted until 2021. We did that before our B&F last year. Sweet deal for both.

 

[El Topo]

What are people's thoughts on Casboult?

1. Averaging about 2 goals a game (kicked 17.4 so far).
2. Kicking has improved.
3. Marking still elite.
4. Does a bit around the ground.
5. Only 27 years and 2 months old.
6. Bonus: Can ruck, Tom Boyd style.
7. On track for approx 40 goals.

IMO - in a top side, Casboult would be an elite 2nd forward or a decent 1st forward. We have probably another 5 years barring injury of top-level football ability left from him.

I think he has heaps of value to us, and should not be let go or traded.

Thoughts?

He'll go back to being useless without Sav but a club with the perfect combination of desperation and hubris like Richmond or Collingwood - whichever misses out on Shache - will back themselves to get the best out of him and make an offer netting us a 2nd rounder.

Or he'll stay and protect the young guys. Win/Win.

 

[BluesRule]

What are people's thoughts on Casboult?

1. Averaging about 2 goals a game (kicked 17.4 so far).
2. Kicking has improved.
3. Marking still elite.
4. Does a bit around the ground.
5. Only 27 years and 2 months old.
6. Bonus: Can ruck, Tom Boyd style.
7. On track for approx 40 goals.

IMO - in a top side, Casboult would be an elite 2nd forward or a decent 1st forward. We have probably another 5 years barring injury of top-level football ability left from him.

I think he has heaps of value to us, and should not be let go or traded.

Agree but we have immediate replacements in Mckay, Kerr, Liam Jones, Rowe, KJ, Phillips, possibly Gorringe so if the price was right I think we would survive. But I like the way Casboult has improved himself and he seems to love the jumper so happy if he stays if there are no great offers.

 

[My name geoff]

Current projections factor that most of those you named 'come on' to be A grade players.

Even should that happen, the playing list is still short, and 22-23 y/olds dont win flags let alone a side comprising 8 or 9 20 year olds. They need at least 50-100 games of playing togeher the be a force. And not 50-100 games of playing together and getting flogged by 60+; they need to be in those games to their eyeballs (this is why we have retained senior players and not gone 'full Melbourne').

That said we still need more talent to replace the older guys who wont be around when the window opens. Most of those players you named are playing alongside (Murphy, Gibbs, Thomas, Kruezer, Simpson, E Curnow, Casboult, ASOS and until recently, Rowe) all of whom we need to find replacements for who are just as good (or better). Thats nine players. We also need to stengthen the forward line (our worst line), while keeping an eye towards replacements for those nine players (most of whom play in the midfield).

That will take another 3 years of drafting to achieve. At least. Assuming we nail every pick. Replacing those players named with players of even equal qaulity will be a tall mountain to achieve in 3 years if you think about it.



That is simply crazy talk. There is no way we can come from blowing all our draft picks for 7 years (barring Cripps), and fixing that in 2 drafts and suddenly be competing again.

We are resetting this list. This year its 22-23 years and under. If you're over that reset 'line' you're a placeholder and nothign more.

The plan has never been to aquire a bunch of kids to play alongside Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer and help the latter push for a flag assault. The plan is to retain those senior blokes (Murph, Gibbs and MK) while we 'reset' the list with kids. The older blokes are just there to protect the kids while we get them in.

We are aiming to assemble a side that will be flag competitive by 2020 and will remain so for the 5 years that follow. The only value the senior players have is experience and hard AFL bodies that prevent us getting utterly flogged; and buy us time to aquire replacements via the draft.

They wont play finals again, and they wont be part of 17. Thats just the reality of what we are doing. They exist to stop our kids from getting smashed and destroying our culture. They are placeholders.

We are (like the Saints and Dogs before us) in a position to strategically lose a player or two each year for draft picks (not gut the list like Melbourne did - which set them back 10 years).

This year Gibbs will depart for a 1st round draft pick. Its possible (probable even) that one of Casboult or Kruezer leaves as a free agent (although there is the rumor that MK has a contract extension which complciates the matter).

We need to find 8 A grade players, at least 2-3 of whom are elite over the next 3 draft/ trade periods to get the list into its final shape for 2020. The more draft picks we get in, the greater our chances of uncovering a future star, and the more currency we have to trade in blokes we need.

Not all the players we pick will make the grade. Not even all 1st rounders we pick will. But we need to:

1) Maximise our presence at the pointy end of the draft
2) Draft wisely and nail our picks
3) Acquire a 60 goal a year forward as our number 1 drafting priority
4) Acquire 5-6 gun A grade/ elite midfielders as our number 2 priority (to replace Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Curnow, Thomas)
5) Acquire 1 gun ruckman to replace Kruezer

And we have 3 drafts/trades to get this done. All player traded in must by 23 and under (this year) with that 'line' increasing by 1 year each year (24 and under is the age profile next year, and 25 and under is the age profile in 2019). We will focus on the draft, get in the kids, and use a massive warchest for free agents in 2018 and 2019 to plug any remaining holes.

2020 is when we will be competing. Till then, 'green shoots' and 'road map'.

I am confident that what you have listed is not the plan. If the plan is as you have outlined, that would require SOS and co to completely ignore last years two best sides in Western Bulldogs and GWS who were made up of 22-23 year olds 'who don't win flags'

Tomlinson22 Davis25 Haynes24
Shaw30 Patful31 Wilson23
Williams21 Coniglio22 Scully25
Kelly21 Cameron23 Patton23
Whitfield21 Lobb23 Greene22

Mumford29 Ward26 Sheil23

Hopper19 Palmer27 Griffen29 Smith23

Over half the GWS team in the prelim were 23 of younger.

Also, I am not talking about winning a flag next year, I am talking about playing finals. Saying we wont be competitive until 2020 is absolute madness.

If you haven't noticed, we have only copped one have defeat this year and that was coming off a gruelling wet weather game and two 6 day breaks with 7 teenagers in the side. Every other game we have been a chance at 3 quarter time. Next year we should only be playing with 1 teenager in the side unless a first year player can oust an experienced player

In 2019 if we were to play the side that ran out on the weekend, we would have 10 players in the 24-30 age bracket and no player under 50 games. The bulldogs only had 6 players in that age bracket when they won the flag.

We will be highly competitive next year, the precedent is there and if we have a good trade period as we have done the past two years, we should be on track to follow the precedent and challenge for finals.

 

[My name geoff]

I'm all for being positive about our young players, but you are assuming a hell of a lot in regards to them. Expecting them to go from averaging 10 disposals a game to 20 disposals a game next year is a massive jump indeed, and unrealistic IMO. There are many factors that you haven't really thought of which will effect each of them in different ways. Suggesting that they should be averaging 20 disposals a game is most unrealistic and unfair on them.

I'm not saying 'should' as in that is what is expected of them, I'm saying 'should' as that is what looks like happening based off their first seasons.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

If you think that the Gold Coast Suns are heading anywhere then boy do I have a bridge to sell you.

They may be ahead of us on the ladder, by percentage, but we have a very clear path. What are the Suns trying to do exactly?

Are they rebuilding? They keep bringing in older players such as Michael Barlow, Pearce Hanley, Matt Rosa and Jarrod Grant.

Are they trying to play winning football? Their team selection often suggests otherwise. Picking younger players who haven't earned their spot in the side through mediocre performances in the NEAFL over more in form players.

The fact is that they're only ahead of us on percentage when given all of their starting assets they ought to be in the thick of finals action. They're as rudderless as any team in the AFL. Honestly, it's hard to tell which Queensland-based AFL side is managed the worst. It's as though they're in constant competition to outdo the other.

As someone who has spent the most of my Australian-living time in Melbourne, where even if Carlton's doing poorly, you can get to an ultra competitive AFL match I find it somewhat infuriating.

Edit: Even with the draft that they had we've got more and better players under the age of 22 than what they do. We've been rebuilding for 2 trade periods. They've had several.

I still don't believe they are as bad as they appear. If GCS could get their best side on the paddock, for a majority of games, we would be seeing something different. That said, I still think they have the wrong coach at the helm. They need a change there IMO.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I'm all for being positive about our young players, but you are assuming a hell of a lot in regards to them. Expecting them to go from averaging 10 disposals a game to 20 disposals a game next year is a massive jump indeed, and unrealistic IMO. There are many factors that you haven't really thought of which will effect each of them in different ways. Suggesting that they should be averaging 20 disposals a game is most unrealistic and unfair on them.

10 disposals is a big jump, but the natural progression of most first year midfielders with another preseason should be a jump from low teens to high teens. and maybe a bit more than that for high picks like SPS. no reason why he can't average close to 20 next year

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Agree but we have immediate replacements in Mckay, Kerr, Liam Jones, Rowe, KJ, Phillips, possibly Gorringe so if the price was right I think we would survive. But I like the way Casboult has improved himself and he seems to love the jumper so happy if he stays if there are no great offers.

None of them are an immediate replacement for Levi.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

10 disposals is a big jump, but the natural progression of most first year midfielders with another preseason should be a jump from low teens to high teens. and maybe a bit more than that for high picks like SPS. no reason why he can't average close to 20 next year

Sure I get that but as I suggested to the other poster, there are many factors that will determine how they perform next year. Will they even be best 22? Will they get injuries? Different levels of improvement. The dreaded second year syndrome that has affected Weitering. Are they even good enough to progress further than they have shown at AFL level? The thing I find when reading what people say about them, and when they post future teams, is the assumption that every single player we have drafted over the last two years is going to be best 22, when its far more likely that wont be the case.

 

[Keyza]

Yoo have we considered whether we'd get a priority pick if we finish bottom 2? Are they still a thing?

They are if the club is north of the Victorian border.

 

[Wickzki]

I still don't believe they are as bad as they appear. If GCS could get their best side on the paddock, for a majority of games, we would be seeing something different. That said, I still think they have the wrong coach at the helm. They need a change there IMO.

I agree with that. However, I'll stand firm and claim that they're still nowhere close to being the team that they should have been. At best they'd be somewhere between 7-11 on this year's ladder (two or three wins more than they have). Proper list management and coaching structures at the club would have seen them push top 4 this year.

 

[Malifice]

I am confident that what you have listed is not the plan.

What? Mate, have you been listening to the President, Trigg, the Coach etc?

Resetting the list. Road map. Journey. Green shoots.

The plan is to RESET the list (following on from 7 years of bad drafting and blown drafts). The plan was to start from ground zero, starting from the 2015 draft, and using the 3 years that followed to assemble the core of a team that could carry us to the finals in 2020 and beyond.

We are not yet even halfway through that 3 year period.

The core of the work wont be done until we finish the 2018 draft, and even then we will need another year or two of development and free agency to get the list right.

Tomlinson22 Davis25 Haynes24
Shaw30 Patful31 Wilson23
Williams21 Coniglio22 Scully25
Kelly21 Cameron23 Patton23
Whitfield21 Lobb23 Greene22

Mumford29 Ward26 Sheil23

Hopper19 Palmer27 Griffen29 Smith23

We dont have the fortune of having a list comprised of the best players from dozens of picks from 5-6 drafts, and including two gun young KPF including one who was nearly a Coleman medalist at 21.

Are you seriously saying Curnow, Cuningham, SPS, Silvagni, Williamson, McKay are in the same league as Kelly, Cameron, Patton, Shiel, Coniglio?

They're not even close; we need another 2-3 big draft hauls to get in the talent we need to match that GWS team, and even then we need to nail our picks.

Over half the GWS team in the prelim were 23 of younger.

Yeah; and 23 (and around 50-100 games) is around the age that players mature. This happens at around 2020 for us.

Also, I am not talking about winning a flag next year, I am talking about playing finals.

We wont be playing finals next year. We will be bottom three. Again. We are still in the three year reset next year.

This draft period, Gibbs will leave. Possibly one of Casboult or Kruezer as well. We will focus on the draft (more teenagers) and in getting in players that are 23 years old or younger who will be able to contribute in 2020 and onwards after we finish resetting the club.

Next year is another development year. Year three of the reset. Thats all it is. Get used to it.

Let me again reiterate: Road map. Green shoots. Journey.

Saying we wont be competitive until 2020 is absolute madness.

I was hearing how we would be a finals side this year also. Looks like we're going to finish either last or second last.

On the back of this 18th-17th finish, Gibbs is all but gone, Simpson (still our most reliable player, one of our most valuable and in our bests every week) is probably going to retire, and we are likely going to lose either Casboult (our CHF and the only bloke capable of taking a mark up forward) or Kruezer (our ruckman) to free agency.

Next year (2018) we will (again) finish bottom 3. We will (again) hit the draft and get in a bunch of teenagers, and almost certainly hunt (and hopefully land) a big ticket free agent. After this draft/ trade period, the 'reset' is officially over.

In 2019 (first year post 'reset') we will start to rise up the ladder as the kids start getting to that 50-100 game mark, and off the back of the big ticket free agent drafted the previous year. We likely finish 11th (maybe even score ourselves a wildcard game if the AFL introduce this). We again hit the draft, and we again try and lure a big ticket free agent to fill any remaining list deficiencies (or trade in a player who wants to come to an emerging 'big' Victorian club).

In 2020 we are in finals contention, finishing in the top 8 (hopefully top 4). From there onwards, its game on. The list is aged 20-26 across the board, have been playing together for years, have 100 games under the belt, a rock solid, talented, and experienced defence who learnt their craft under a baptism of fire. We are now set for a 5 year period of dominance.

Also at this point our list management strategy changes, but lets worry about that when we get there.

If you haven't noticed, we have only copped one heavy defeat this year and that was coming off a gruelling wet weather game and two 6 day breaks with 7 teenagers in the side.

If you havent noticed we have (by far and away) the most impotent forward line in the AFL by a considerable margin, and an aeging midfield, followed by a bunch of kids. If it wasnt for a highly defensive game plan by Bolton relying on controlling the tempo, a gun backline with an AA in Docherty, the evergreen gun Simpson, and a number of good tall young kids and a damn fine rookie pick up in ASOS, we would be getting smashed weekly.

There is a reason we are 17th on the ladder, with the lowest points for in the AFL by a mile (for the 3rd year running) you know?

We will be highly competitive next year, the precedent is there and if we have a good trade period as we have done the past two years, we should be on track to follow the precedent and challenge for finals.

We will finish bottom 5 next year. Probably bottom 3.

Green shoots. Road Map. Journey.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I agree with that. However, I'll stand firm and claim that they're still nowhere close to being the team that they should have been. At best they'd be somewhere between 7-11 on this year's ladder (two or three wins more than they have). Proper list management and coaching structures at the club would have seen them push top 4 this year.

Don't know about top 4 But fi everything had gone right for them, even with Eade as coach, they should be challenging for top 8 at the least. They actually have a pretty good best 22 when all are fit, firing and available. There are a handful of their players Id be more than happy to see playing at Carlton, that's for sure.

 

[TBellicious]

Matt Kennedy was pretty stiff to not get the rising Star nom this week. Looking forward to seeing him in the navy blue next year

 

[Blue_Fusion]

This doesn't factor in the improvement of SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Curnow and possibly Williamson as midfielders. As 20-21 y.o. next season, these guys will be the same age as lachie Hunter, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel were last year and as such I am confident they can have similar impact.

These guys should all be averaging over 20 disposals per game next year the way they are tracking, and along with Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Ed, Graham should see our midfield be greatly improved.

These guys are currently only averaging around 10 disposals per game and we are taking it up to sides until halfway in the last quarter in every game bar 1.

Bolton will have this side humming round 1 next year.

I did factor it. They need more than a season to develop. Cuningham didn't play much last year, neither did Charlie.

They're just kids they will need at least 2-3 seasons under their belt imo

 

[Blue__Balls]

If you think that the Gold Coast Suns are heading anywhere then boy do I have a bridge to sell you.

They may be ahead of us on the ladder, by percentage, but we have a very clear path. What are the Suns trying to do exactly?

Are they rebuilding? They keep bringing in older players such as Michael Barlow, Pearce Hanley, Matt Rosa and Jarrod Grant.

Are they trying to play winning football? Their team selection often suggests otherwise. Picking younger players who haven't earned their spot in the side through mediocre performances in the NEAFL over more in form players.

The fact is that they're only ahead of us on percentage when given all of their starting assets they ought to be in the thick of finals action. They're as rudderless as any team in the AFL. Honestly, it's hard to tell which Queensland-based AFL side is managed the worst. It's as though they're in constant competition to outdo the other.

As someone who has spent the most of my Australian-living time in Melbourne, where even if Carlton's doing poorly, you can get to an ultra competitive AFL match I find it somewhat infuriating.

Edit: Even with the draft that they had we've got more and better players under the age of 22 than what they do. We've been rebuilding for 2 trade periods. They've had several.

Are they rebuilding? They keep bringing in older players such as Matthew Wright, Rhys Palmer, Billy Smedts and Dan Gorringe.

Are they trying to play winning football? Their team selection often suggests otherwise. Picking younger players who haven't earned their spot in the side through mediocre performances in the VFL over more in form players.

See how easy that was?

Gold Coast are having player retention issues because they failed to develop strong Leaders, thereby creating a very ordinary culture. Their early game plan was "Give it to Gary" and as a result they've failed to develop their younger mids properly.

In the last couple of years they've changed up the captaincy, recruited senior players who work hard, drafted multiple high-end kids and secured most of them with contract extensions. They're in almost exactly the same spot as us, without the luxury of being a Melbourne-based club which generates more options for trading in "homesick" young kids. If they can get the right coach on board (because I don't believe Eade is the right man for the job) they'll find success isn't too far off.

 

[ajb72]

The President of France had an inappropriate relationship with his drama teacher; what's your point?

He is French. That kind of thing is expected.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Thoughts?

He'll go back to being useless without Sav but a club with the perfect combination of desperation and hubris like Richmond or Collingwood - whichever misses out on Shache - will back themselves to get the best out of him and make an offer netting us a 2nd rounder.

Or he'll stay and protect the young guys. Win/Win.

I guess my point is - a 2nd rounder seems a fair price due to his reputation. But his actual value this year is immense.

Key forwards are so rare. Good key forwards are even rarer. For example, we gave a pick 46 (2nd round??) for Liam "explosive beast" Jones IIRC! The dude was doing jack shit at the bulldogs at the time.

Casboult is in his prime, and is actually performing! I would've taken a 2nd rounder at the end of last year to stop the headaches of losing momentum when he shanks it. But as it stands he'd be a contributor and walk-up start to everyone in the comp bar perhaps GWS and Adelaide.

First rounder or bust imo

 

[Blue__Balls]

I guess my point is - a 2nd rounder seems a fair price due to his reputation. But his actual value this year is immense.

Key forwards are so rare. Good key forwards are even rarer. For example, we gave a pick 46 (2nd round??) for Liam "explosive beast" Jones IIRC! The dude was doing jack shit at the bulldogs at the time.

Casboult is in his prime, and is actually performing! I would've taken a 2nd rounder at the end of last year to stop the headaches of losing momentum when he shanks it. But as it stands he'd be a contributor and walk-up start to everyone in the comp bar perhaps GWS and Adelaide.

First rounder or bust imo

Except as a free agent we don't have any leverage to force a trade for a first rounder...

If a club offers him $500k for 4 years, we'll be given Band 3 compo (Pick 22ish) and won't have any choice in the matter, as matching or bettering that offer would be hugely irresponsible on our part.