Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[Mitchell54]

ADEL to STK: 13, 16 & 21
STK to ADEL: 4

Gets ADEL back ahead of PA.
Gives STK ammunition to get Hannebery.

Also means only 3 VIC clubs have picks in Top 12... (assumed ESS 9 to GWS for Shiel, and BRIS 5 to FREO for Neale).
IF interstate clubs pick local boys (GCS (King(s), ADEL and PA) that still leaves some very good talent that could be there at 13.

Saints already have ammunition. Pick 39

 

[EconomicDecline]

ADEL to STK: 13, 16 & 21
STK to ADEL: 4

Gets ADEL back ahead of PA.
Gives STK ammunition to get Hannebery.

Also means only 3 VIC clubs have picks in Top 12... (assumed ESS 9 to GWS for Shiel, and BRIS 5 to FREO for Neale).
IF interstate clubs pick local boys (GCS (King(s), ADEL and PA) that still leaves some very good talent that could be there at 13.

I’d prefer 8 and two of 13, 16, 21 (but not 16,21 combo), for 4, 2019 2nd round, 39, and Luke Dunstan. Heavy in our favour, but what Adelaide needs to get one of the SA guns

 

[Mitchell54]

I’d prefer 8 and two of 13, 16, 21 (but not 16,21 combo), for 4, 2019 2nd round, 39, and Luke Dunstan. Heavy in our favour, but what Adelaide needs to get one of the SA guns

They’d be wanting to hang on to 8 as there is a chance one of the SA boys will still be there at that pick

 

[aust18]

I’d prefer 8 and two of 13, 16, 21 (but not 16,21 combo), for 4, 2019 2nd round, 39, and Luke Dunstan. Heavy in our favour, but what Adelaide needs to get one of the SA guns

Agree that they'll need and be willing to pay overs. Although I'm sure they'd be keen to keep 8 to pip PA and try to tempt you with the other 3 and something depending on desperation.

 

[Suma Magic]

My guesstimate rankings of player value (given contract status and all other considerations). Gets very hard the lower you go.

1. Hogan
2. Neale
3. Shiel
4. May
5. Wingard
6. Kelly
7. Beams
8. Lobb
9. Setterfield
10. Hannebery
11. Kolodjashnij
12. Scrimshaw
13. Finlayson
14. Tyson
15. Preuss
16. Roughead
17. Adams
    
18. Kent
19. Stengle

 

[Prochard123]

Sounds like Freo really wants our 1st pick, they can have it

1. Freo trade pick 11 + Pick 49 for Tom Langdon + Pick 18
2. Freo trade pick 18 + 2019 1st round pick for Jesse Hogan

Freo

Out: Pick 11, pick 49, 2019 1st round pick
In: Jesse Hogan + Tom Langdon

Collingwood

Out: Tom Langdon + Pick 18
In: Pick 11 + pick 49

Melbourne
Out: Jesse Hogan
In: 2019 1st round pick + pick 18

Freo goes on to deal with Brisbane about Neale with absolutely no pressure, worst case they get Hogan while keeping neale. Also gives Freo more leverage over Brisbane as Brisbane seems to have already committed to Neale.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Doubt Melbourne would accept that. They would surely want one of those first rounders to be in the top 6-8

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

What about a four way deal...

Hogan to Freo
Neale to Lions
Lions pick 5 to Suns
May to Dees

 

[anotherletdown]

Why would GC want more later picks rather than the top end stuff? IMO they need stars, probably a better bet the star comes at 3

Exactly. If they flip May they probably end up with 3 in the top 5 and 6 in the top 30... and that’s before Kolodjasnji (spelling?) gets traded. They’re actually just as likely to want to upgrade as PA and Adelaide are. They’ve just taken in two state league players, they have too many picks if anything!

 

[anotherletdown]

What about a four way deal...

Hogan to Freo
Neale to Lions
Lions pick 5 to Suns
May to Dees

Too many egos in play for it to be that simple.

EDIT

I think it’s pretty fair all round. I’d imagine in the end bris also give up 34 to Freo and Freo additionally give up 23 to Melbourne.

 

[Dez!]

Sounds like Freo really wants our 1st pick, they can have it

1. Freo trade pick 11 + Pick 49 for Tom Langdon + Pick 18
2. Freo trade pick 18 + 2019 1st round pick for Jesse Hogan

Freo

Out: Pick 11, pick 49, 2019 1st round pick
In: Jesse Hogan + Tom Langdon

Collingwood

Out: Tom Langdon + Pick 18
In: Pick 11 + pick 49

Melbourne
Out: Jesse Hogan
In: 2019 1st round pick + pick 18

Freo goes on to deal with Brisbane about Neale with absolutely no pressure, worst case they get Hogan while keeping neale. Also gives Freo more leverage over Brisbane as Brisbane seems to have already committed to Neale.

What the f*** is this s**t?

Collingwood get pick 11 for Langdon while Melbourne drop their pants and get violated while losing Hogan.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Sounds like Freo really wants our 1st pick, they can have it

1. Freo trade pick 11 + Pick 49 for Tom Langdon + Pick 18
2. Freo trade pick 18 + 2019 1st round pick for Jesse Hogan

Freo

Out: Pick 11, pick 49, 2019 1st round pick
In: Jesse Hogan + Tom Langdon

Collingwood

Out: Tom Langdon + Pick 18
In: Pick 11 + pick 49

Melbourne
Out: Jesse Hogan
In: 2019 1st round pick + pick 18

Freo goes on to deal with Brisbane about Neale with absolutely no pressure, worst case they get Hogan while keeping neale. Also gives Freo more leverage over Brisbane as Brisbane seems to have already committed to Neale.

On first appearances seems solid but my only query would be Melbourne are gambling on Freo staying similar on the ladder for a top 5 pick next year.

But if they got Hogan and Lobb, kept Neale, had a full year from Fyfe...it's not a bad side especially with Lyons H&A coaching record

The trade is a lot more suitable if the 2019 pick was a known top 4 tier pick. Which would probably only be easily predictable from GC and Carlton

 

[LeverPuller]

What about a four way deal...

Hogan to Freo
Neale to Lions
Lions pick 5 to Suns
May to Dees

Melbourne getting shafted

 

[Dom PC]

Pick 5 and pick 32 >> Adelaide

Pick 8 and 16 >> Brisbane

Draft pick value wise, the above is Adelaide giving up pick 60.

Then pick 8, pick 41 and Brisbane 2019 2nd rd pick >> Freo

L.Neale and Freo 2019 4th rd pick >> Brisbane

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Melbourne getting shafted

Hogan for May, with possibly later pick thrown in. That’s fair

 

[mezaire]

Hawthorn trade 2019 1st with WC picks 20, 22
WC trade Hawthorn 2019 1st with Geelong for Kelly

Hawthorn trade pick 14 and 22 with Port for Wingard
Hawthorn trade 20 and 35 with GWS for Scully

Port trade 6, 10 and 22 (3900 points) with GC for picks 2, 24 and 58 (3450 points)

 

[mezaire]

What about a four way deal...

Hogan to Freo
Neale to Lions
Lions pick 5 to Suns
May to Dees

I would have thought Brisbanes pick 32 going Melbourne's was would go close

 

[Mitchell54]

Hawthorn trade 2019 1st with WC picks 20, 22
WC trade Hawthorn 2019 1st with Geelong for Kelly

Hawthorn trade pick 14 and 22 with Port for Wingard
Hawthorn trade 20 and 35 with GWS for Scully

Port trade 6, 10 and 22 (3900 points) with GC for picks 2, 24 and 58 (3450 points)

Port wouldn’t like that at all.

 

[SL16]

Have been trying to come up with a hypothetical set of trades that would allow the Neale, Hogan and May trades to all get done (Assuming Hogan and May both want to go). But also trying to allow enough picks to trade for Adams and enough points for Macfayden and Coleman in the draft (Brisbane supporter here).

Have come up with this:

Adelaide give: 8 + 16
Adelaide get: 5 + 44

Fremantle give: Neale
Fremantle get: Hogan

Brisbane give: 5 + 44
Brisbane get: Neale

Melb give: Hogan + 54
Melb get: May + Kolodjashnij + 16

GC give: May + Kolodjashnij
GC get: 8 + 54

____________________________________________

Then Brisbane's separate deals:

Brisbane give: Mayes + Future 4th
Port give: Future 2nd

Brisbane give: Port or Bris Future 2nd + 55
Dogs give: Adams

Leaves Brisbane with 32 and 41 as well as whatever they get for Keays (should they trade him), which should be enough points for our Academy kids.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Have been trying to come up with a hypothetical set of trades that would allow the Neale, Hogan and May trades to all get done (Assuming Hogan and May both want to go). But also trying to allow enough picks to trade for Adams and enough points for Macfayden and Coleman in the draft (Brisbane supporter here).

Have come up with this:

Adelaide give: 8 + 16
Adelaide get: 5 + 44

Fremantle give: Neale
Fremantle get: Hogan

Brisbane give: 5 + 44
Brisbane get: Neale

Melb give: Hogan + 54
Melb get: May + Kolodjashnij + 16

GC give: May + Kolodjashnij
GC get: 8 + 54

____________________________________________

Then Brisbane's separate deals:

Brisbane give: Mayes + Future 4th
Port give: Future 2nd

Brisbane give: Port or Bris Future 2nd + 55
Dogs give: Adams

Leaves Brisbane with 32 and 41 as well as whatever they get for Keays (should they trade him), which should be enough points for our Academy kids.

Gold Coast wouldn't do it, they'd be getting shafted pretty hard. All the other clubs are fairly even, but Gold Coast could get as high as Pick 2 as compo for May in free agency next year, so they'd be wanting a lot more than 8 + 54 for May and Kolodjashnij

 

[SL16]

Gold Coast wouldn't do it, they'd be getting shafted pretty hard. All the other clubs are fairly even, but Gold Coast could get as high as Pick 2 as compo for May in free agency next year, so they'd be wanting a lot more than 8 + 54 for May and Kolodjashnij

Yeah found it hard to give May a value that both Melb and GC would agree with. If I took GC out of the situation, Melb just get 8 and 16 for Hogan which I think is fair.

 

[philthy05]

Have come up with this:

Adelaide give: 8 + 16
Adelaide get: 5 + 44

Fremantle give: Neale
Fremantle get: Hogan

Brisbane give: 5 + 44
Brisbane get: Neale

Melb give: Hogan + 54
Melb get: May + Kolodjashnij + 16

GC give: May + Kolodjashnij
GC get: 8 + 54

____________________________________________

Then Brisbane's separate deals:

Brisbane give: Mayes + Future 4th
Port give: Future 2nd

Brisbane give: Port or Bris Future 2nd + 55
Dogs give: Adams

Leaves Brisbane with 32 and 41 as well as whatever they get for Keays (should they trade him), which should be enough points for our Academy kids.

You’re not getting any kind of second rounder for Sam Mayes

Not first 22, not guaranteed a first 22 at port. I think he is a unrestricted free agent next year.

Port let players like that in young ah Chee and Austin go for picks between 50-65 last year. Only his contract means maybe you don’t let him go for that but yeah, not much value in him.

My opinion is Amon > Vic club > pick to Brisbane

Or hombsch > gcs

Mayes to port but port would want something else back with that. Kpp value to gcs is higher than Mayes to us and we have to replace that kpp depth.

 

[Vikingnz]

 

[SL16]

You’re not getting any kind of second rounder for Sam Mayes

Not first 22, not guaranteed a first 22 at port. I think he is a unrestricted free agent next year.

Port let players like that in young ah Chee and Austin go for picks between 50-65 last year. Only his contract means maybe you don’t let him go for that but yeah, not much value in him.

My opinion is Amon > Vic club > pick to Brisbane

Or hombsch > gcs

Mayes to port but port would want something else back with that. Kpp value to gcs is higher than Mayes to us and we have to replace that kpp depth.

Yeah understand the reasoning, like I said, Brisbane supporter here so obviously I see the upside in Mayes. If he goes for a future 3rd or 40+ pick this year so be it, minor detail in the scheme of things.

 

[SuperSub85]

Just put this in the Wingard thread, but applicable here as well.

Port - Get: Pick 5, Burton, Mayes; Lose: Pick 6, Wingard
Brisbane - Get: Pick 6 + 15; Lose: Pick 5, Mayes
Hawthorn - Get: Wingard; Lose Pick 15, Burton

- Gives Brisbane Picks 6 + 15 to go after Neale
- Fremantle then have Pick 6 + one of Picks 11 or 15 for Hogan
- Melbourne send Pick 6 to Gold Coast for May