List Mgmt. 2019/20 Trade/Delist/Re-sign Predictions/Opinion (now with TRADE RADIO)

[SuperBashBros]

Id be pushing for 6 and Hately for 4 and Jacobs. Later pick swaps to even up.

Try to convince them Hately and Green would be fighting for a spot anyway. I see a spot for Hately now CEY and Greenwood have left.

 

[DangerSloane]

Id be pushing for 6 and Hately for 4 and Jacobs.

Try to convince them Hately and Green would be fighting for a spot anyway. I see a spot for Hately now CEY and Greenwood have left.

That values Hately as like a 3rd round pick as Jacobs is worth about a 4th at this point in his career


There is no way theyre doing that.

 

[ad victoriam]

Anyone thinking of pick 23 and 28 for pick 12 from the Saints.

 

[Vader]

You could assume it will still be at least 5 picks apart.
That kinda makes up for the weaker draft. Would call that even at that point and thats the worst case scenario (assuming us 16th and GWS 2nd)

You do realise that the 2nd round pick is a 2019 selection, not 2020?

We currently have #23 and #28 in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. It's not unlikely that GWS' 1st round pick in 2020 will end up being #23 or later, by the time F/S and NGA bids blow things out.

 

[Vader]

Anyone thinking of pick 23 and 28 for pick 12 from the Saints.

Unlikely. The Saints will almost certainly be using #12 on Brad Hill.

 

[Crow till I die]

I suspect we can do better than that - their 2020 1st is likely to be in the mid teens, after all. We could probably get away with just offering pick 4 for pick 6 and their 2020 1st, but I wonder if we'd prefer to get something now instead.

4 + Jacobs for 6 + Hately or 6 + 2020 1st...can't hurt to try and we still get a great kid at 6 this year + the very nice extra's. They get in before us and get Jacobs..happy days (just hope melbourne are not thinking tom green....)

 

[SuperBashBros]

That values Hately as like a 3rd round pick as Jacobs is worth about a 4th at this point in his career


There is no way theyre doing that.

Thats why I said later picks to even up. Might be our 28 or 2020 2nd or something.

 

[Linekers Ears]

Id be pushing for 6 and Hately for 4 and Jacobs. Later pick swaps to even up.

Try to convince them Hately and Green would be fighting for a spot anyway. I see a spot for Hately now CEY and Greenwood have left.

You might get them putting Bonar in that deal but unlikely Hately - Bonar's had couple of knee reconstructions and hasn't played much in his two years on the list.

 

[jc67]

Basically, yeah.

GWS have the rights to an academy player, Tom Green. The Crows also want him and will bid on them (we have a reputation for doing that). If we do so, GWS still get him if they want, but they have to give up some picks to do it. Effectively, they would lose pick 6 (plus some later picks).

If they can do a swap with us, so they have pick 4, and we have pick 6, then they get to use pick 4 on someone else before we get a chance to bid. So they would get two top-end players instead of one.

Presumably they spoke to us about trading pick 4 for both picks 12 and 18, but we said no thanks, we want a top ten pick. I'm guessing that's why they did the trade with St Kilda. It wouldn't make sense otherwise because they actually lose points by doing the swap with St Kilda which makes it even harder for them to match our bid.

The only question is, what else are they going to throw in. Okay, we'll swap pick 4 for pick 6, but they have to give us something extra to make it worth our while. Future first round pick? A player? We'll see. Presumably we'll get more than the difference is normally worth because of the situation. To GWS, they are effectively getting an extra top 4 player for "free" if they can pull the trade off, so they are incentivised to give us a high quality return.

This is the second time our reputation for bidding on academy players has benefited us. We have an extra second round pick this year (pick 23), simply because we agreed last year to downgrade our pick in the 20s by just a few places so GWS could take an academy player before we had a chance to bid on them.

Great post,
These are the reasons I drop in here at trade time



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ad victoriam]

Unlikely. The Saints will almost certainly be using #12 on Brad Hill.

If they get Hill they may miss out on the others, which way do they go first or do they use 12 and 18 on Hill,
Then we jump in and swap with Freo, as they will lose that pick on Liam Henry swapping 23 and 28 for pick 12 allows them to use 18 on Henry and have to 2 x early 2nd rd up there sleeve.

 

[Crow till I die]

That values Hately as like a 3rd round pick as Jacobs is worth about a 4th at this point in his career


There is no way theyre doing that.

maybe it would have to be 4 + 49 + Jacobs for 6 + Hately. They have to pay a premium to get above us to prevent a tom green bid. We have a unique opportunity this year to go for plays like this. Imagine if the pick swap with Carlton ended up being 9 + 19 for Kemp or Ash and Hately. Where do we sign

 

[Betts are off]

That values Hately as like a 3rd round pick as Jacobs is worth about a 4th at this point in his career


There is no way theyre doing that.

GWS are much more aggressive in getting their targets then most clubs. They certainly don’t take an “Adelaide Crows” like approach in executing their plans.

 

[Betts are off]

Anyone thinking of pick 23 and 28 for pick 12 from the Saints.

No, I think we need both of those to use in our Cat B rookie trades if we are going to get what we are after!

 

[Mutineer]

I keep reading posters suggesting we want Green and Hately like it's fact...can someone direct me to where Hamish or Reid have said this?

I'm sure it's a possibility with Green but I'm wondering where the Hately talk is coming from apart from the fact he's a South Australian given if we had such a high opinion of him it beats me why we didn't take him in the draft when we had every opportunity?

 

[CrowinNT]

I keep reading posters suggesting we want Green and Hately like it's fact...can someone direct me to where Hamish or Reid have said this?

I'm sure it's a possibility with Green but I'm wondering where the Hately talk is coming from apart from the fact he's a South Australian given if we had such a high opinion of him it beats me why we didn't take him in the draft when we had every opportunity?

People get all loved up with SA kids
Hell Stephens is a prime example even though you have pointed that out

 

[DangerSloane]

GWS are much more aggressive in getting their targets then most clubs. They certainly don’t take an “Adelaide Crows” like approach in executing their plans.

They're not going to be more aggressive when a) he is a free agent and b) his worth is in the 4th round pick territory.
The only reason they would trade for him at all is because it saves their compo pick.

 

[Legz]

I keep reading posters suggesting we want Green and Hately like it's fact...can someone direct me to where Hamish or Reid have said this?

I'm sure it's a possibility with Green but I'm wondering where the Hately talk is coming from apart from the fact he's a South Australian given if we had such a high opinion of him it beats me why we didn't take him in the draft when we had every opportunity?

Hamish was on a podcast about a month ago talking about Green, so I suspect that's where the Green talk is.

Not seen anything regarding Hately though.

 

[DangerSloane]

You do realise that the 2nd round pick is a 2019 selection, not 2020?

We currently have #23 and #28 in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. It's not unlikely that GWS' 1st round pick in 2020 will end up being #23 or later, by the time F/S and NGA bids blow things out.

Yep I misunderstood that trade.
Even then I think our demise is greatly exaggerated. What genuine quality is out the door?

 

[Elite Crow]

People get all loved up with SA kids
Hell Stephens is a prime example even though you have pointed that out

Especially Wayne

 

[Vader]

Yep I misunderstood that trade.
Even then I think our demise is greatly exaggerated. What genuine quality is out the door?

Pissing away the highest draft pick the club has ever had, for starters...

 

[DangerSloane]

pi**ing away the highest draft pick the club has ever had, for starters...

You wouldnt have done that GWS potential trade?

Normally I'd agree with you on throwing away the high pick, but this year we need quality and quantity. I dont want all our eggs in one basket.

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

I keep reading posters suggesting we want Green and Hately like it's fact...can someone direct me to where Hamish or Reid have said this?

I'm sure it's a possibility with Green but I'm wondering where the Hately talk is coming from apart from the fact he's a South Australian given if we had such a high opinion of him it beats me why we didn't take him in the draft when we had every opportunity?

Feeling the same, I would be speaking to them about Harry Himmelberg to come across to play with his brother

 

[Mutineer]

GWS are much more aggressive in getting their targets then most clubs. They certainly don’t take an “Adelaide Crows” like approach in executing their plans.

Mate, they've got a shedload more collateral to play with than us when it comes to their actual talent base....reckon that might have just a little bit to do do with their boldness.

 

[spexau]

You wouldnt have done that GWS potential trade?

Normally I'd agree with you on throwing away the high pick, but this year we need quality and quantity. I dont want all our eggs in one basket.

People getting wound up by the potential trading down of 4 don't understand the makeup of the draft pool

 

[Vader]

You wouldnt have done that GWS potential trade?

Normally I'd agree with you on throwing away the high pick, but this year we need quality and quantity. I dont want all our eggs in one basket.

We should have enough draft picks to work with, once the Keath/Greenwood/Jacobs/Betts deals go through.

One of the biggest problems Adelaide has faced for years has been the lack of elite talent on our list. We have a lot of above average players (e.g. Brad Crouch), but very few elite players (e.g. Dustin Martin). The best chance of getting an elite player is with a pick inside the top-5. You might get one later in the draft, if you're lucky, but the best odds are definitely in the top-5 picks.

We already have an abundance of 1st round selections on our playing list, noting that Gallucci, Fogarty and Doedee played virtually no part in the 2019 disaster. What we need is elite talent, to build a team around. Our best chance of getting this marquee player is with pick #4, not rolling the dice on picks in the mid-late teens.