AFL 2019 - AFL ROUND 23

[JuniorWatch]

Can we wrap this up cos i'm all out of ideas this round and need some actual tips.
All I've got is a couple of specials involving the Pies and Aaron Young 3+ (20/1) @ Sb .
Like i said, lack of ideas.
After his classy Round 23 analysis NonPhixion promised me some GS markets...

 

[mookieb]

Tell us that yarn again where you used to be a professional punter and poker player. That was my favourite.

You quit the forum and come back after someone messages you to come pile on?

My favourite is when you were a wannabe and now your not even that. In poker terms you're what's called a "baby turtle" - thousands swim out never to be seen again.

But hey come to Crown Perth poker parlour tonight if you want to say hello. I'm 6 foot 6 so not hard to find.

 

[iluvparis]

 

[GROTTO]

Im going all in. GWS.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Im going all in. GWS.

Im taking a risk...GWS -5.5

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

B365 have finally tightened the screws, looks like they have changed their multi-scorer algorithms the dogs. Not much going there at all.
Anyways enough bicker & banter, lets get serious
Nick Hind AGS @1.77 B365 - covered 7/10. kicked atleast 1 score in every single game...
K. Jack AGS @1.75 B365 - only covered 2/7, but its his last game and should be parked in the forward line, you would think the swans would do their best to give him a goal. Looking for a nice,easy, josh Jenkins goal square special.
G.Ablett AGS @1.60 B365 - tightened into 1.47 real quick, still value though. covered 15/20.
Rischitelli AGS @3.20 B365 - Similar sentiments as Jack, although not as confident in this one, represents good value tho considering he plays 100% forward these days.
Josh Thomas AGS @1.65 B365 - covered 13/19. This bloke is the ultimate down hill skier. covered 10/13 in wins. simply has to kick goals to keep his spot in the team for finals.
Daniel Menzel 2+ @3.10, 3+ @8 SB- can't ignore it as its been profitable the last 2 weeks and SB haven't really changed the odds.
McStay 2+ @6, 3+ @26 SB - not the type of bloke you want the hard earned on, certainly the type of bloke where the remote ends up being thrown, but the odds are far too good to pass on. covered 2+ 7/21, kicked 3 only once this year.

Considering a play on McEvoy too but not sure. 2+ @7 SB looks enticing if he replaces roughie up forward. perhaps Junior has some positional thoughts here.
Also the North vs Melb forecast looks like it could spoil the party.

 

[mookieb]

B365 have finally tightened the screws, looks like they have changed their multi-scorer algorithms the dogs. Not much going there at all.
Anyways enough bicker & banter, lets get serious
Nick Hind AGS @1.77 B365 - covered 7/10. kicked atleast 1 score in every single game...
K. Jack AGS @1.75 B365 - only covered 2/7, but its his last game and should be parked in the forward line, you would think the swans would do their best to give him a goal. Looking for a nice,easy, josh Jenkins goal square special.
G.Ablett AGS @1.60 B365 - tightened into 1.47 real quick, still value though. covered 15/20.
Rischitelli AGS @3.20 B365 - Similar sentiments as Jack, although not as confident in this one, represents good value tho considering he plays 100% forward these days.
Josh Thomas AGS @1.65 B365 - covered 13/19. This bloke is the ultimate down hill skier. covered 10/13 in wins. simply has to kick goals to keep his spot in the team for finals.
Daniel Menzel 2+ @3.10, 3+ @8 SB- can't ignore it as its been profitable the last 2 weeks and SB haven't really changed the odds.
McStay 2+ @6, 3+ @26 SB - not the type of bloke you want the hard earned on, certainly the type of bloke where the remote ends up being thrown, but the odds are far too good to pass on. covered 2+ 7/21, kicked 3 only once this year.

Considering a play on McEvoy too but not sure. 2+ @7 SB looks enticing if he replaces roughie up forward. perhaps Junior has some positional thoughts here.
Also the North vs Melb forecast looks like it could spoil the party.

Daisy Thomas? Can see him drifting forward and team mates trying to get him a goal Roughy style.

 

[balmainforever]

I'm sure it's not, but can you confirm your comment about fraudulent bets (in response to my sarcastic post) is general in nature and not directed at me?

Your sarcasm is only matched by my sarcasm.

 

[NonPhixion]

Daisy Thomas? Can see him drifting forward and team mates trying to get him a goal Roughy style.

$4.25 B365. i'd personally stay away, I hate betting on anyone to kick goals against Geelong, they are just far too stingy.

 

[karaoke]

Polec AGS - $2.70 b365 (13/21)

 

[Reveen]

Tell us that yarn again where you used to be a professional punter and poker player. That was my favourite.

An all-time classic. He's a professional who as a punter specialises in psychological bets and as a poker player is a nit who waits for fish at 1-3 in a low volume room.

 

[maskmcgee]

Buddy 6+ 11$ seems a little long to me

 

[Sausage Legs]

Laverde 2 snags 5 bucks

 

[RooTed]

1u #AFLPiesDons TGS u157.5 $1.90 TAB/Unibet

Have them as 159-164 but previous 3 meetings have been 142,140 and 152. It's a night game at the G with probable rain/slippery conditions and finals affected.

GL

On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Robo87]

1u Coll, Syd, WB all win @3 lads mega multi promo
0.5u Laverde ags @1.80 lads (covered 5/8)
0.5u Laverde 2g+ @5 sb (covered 3/8)
1u McCluggage ags @2.25 sb (covered 16/20)
1u douglas ags @2 sb. (for the chance he might get some ball in his last crows game)

 

[anabac]

I'm not buying into the whole Sydney party time tomorrow. I know Buddy back in for 300th and Jack/McVeigh send off game, but that doesn't change form. Sydney lost 6 straight prior to knocking off the absolute basketcase Demons last week, and the win they had before their losing streak was Gold Coast. That's 2 wins in 8 weeks against 17th and 18th on the ladder. I'm not saying the Saints are world-beaters by any stretch - they arent in great form either - but i do think they are good value H2H and at the line.

 

[karaoke]

Dylan Shiel AGS - 2.75 TAB (8/20, 7/10 since bye)

 

[targett]

Like the Blue Baggers here. They cover at 61% as an underdog in Victoria while they hit at 69% getting three-plus goals. As a local underdog in day/twilight games, the Blues are 48-18 against the spread.
Geelong are below par here and only cover at just 37% when favoured by more than three goals.
The last time they played at GMHBA in 2018 it was Geelong by 28 points with Carltons scoreline at 5.15 (horrible conversion).
Not forgetting Carlton under Teague is much better than of previous.Geelong have the best percentage and can not be overtaken in that regard.Geelong win however if need be, the cruise control switch could be activated for self preservation.

Carlton 32.5 1.90 Ubet

 

[mookieb]

An all-time classic. He's a professional who as a punter specialises in psychological bets and as a poker player is a nit who waits for fish at 1-3 in a low volume room.

If your going to try and sound knowledgeable in your very first post on the punting board, perhaps not use outdated terms like "nit" which players haven't used for years?

In the meantime jog on flog.

 

[ash_1050]

Did some reading of tea leaves last night, Geelong 1-39 and Collingwood -15.5 were the two that came up.

 

[NonPhixion]

small middle on treloar
O31.5 @1.85 B365
U33.5 @1.90 SB

 

[karaoke]

1u McCluggage ags @2.25 sb (covered 16/20)

2.33 b365

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Liking Phillips 25+ tonight $2.25 (SB) - With no Sidebottom tonight hopefully he steps up and gets a bit more of the ball.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Laverde 2 snags 5 bucks

2 snags for 5 bucks? We must be in victoria

 

[maskmcgee]

Pies, Swans, Cats, Eagles, Dogs, Tigers 3U $5.16

GWS 37+ HT Margin, GWS Win, Kelly 20+, 2U $3.60