Resource 2019 Stats thread + prior year comparisons

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Lawnchair Larry

All Australian
Apr 1, 2015
921
1,035
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Wanted to look at % Goal Efficiency for Port over the last few years, to compare with 2004 premiership year.
So examined data from Footywire.
Not sure if conventional but, for example, if a team scored 7.4 and 2 of the points were rushed, the the 2 rushed points have been discarded. The KICKED total I have taken as 7.2 and the goal scoring efficiency is taken as [(7/9) x 100] rather than [(7/11) x 100]. So the KICKS to score are, in this case 9, rather than 11.That may be a grey area (eg a finger tip touch by opposition as the ball passes through the goals might well be unfairly treated here), but will proceed anyway.
Plots have only been assessed over the minor rounds.
Below are box plots of the % Goal Scoring Efficiency for 2004 and for the years 2015-2019 (incomplete for 2019 obviously), as well as the Kicks for Score data from the same years. The whiskers above and below the black and white boxes traverse the statistically significant range of values on each plot. The range of values traversing the whiskers are divided into units of 25% (quartiles; only shown once on each plot). Where the black part of the box meets the white part of the box in a horizontal line is the median - 50% of data above and 50% below.
With regard to the % Goal Scoring Efficiency, one lower outlier for 2015 (33.3%) and one lower outlier for 2016 (30.8%) have been rejected as statisticaly weird.
With regard to the Kicks for Score plot one upper outlier has been rejected (2016; 46 kicks that scored; vs Brisbane) as statistically weird.

Overall the 2004 data stands up pretty well with respect to % Goal Efficiency, as I am pretty interested in the lowest 25% of the data as well as the median value (where black meets white).
Just looking at the median % Goal Efficiency from 2015 onwards, it appears that this is in almost continuous decline. That is a worry.
Overall the % Goal Efficiency plots show large variation, as adjudged by the total length of whiskers above and below the boxes, which really demands looking at what other teams do. But on face value there is a real need for improvement.
The Kicks for Score plot aren't that instructive, except to say that the median Kicks for Score value for 2004 appears very favourable in comparison with other data presented. So in that 2004 year our Kicks for Score were up, and were complemented by a quite high % Goal Efficiency.
Of course this only part of the story. I may well score 4.1 from kicks at 80% Goal Scoring Efficiency, but will 4.1 win the game?

composite goal effivciency and shots to score.jpg
 

GremioPower

"Ad Astra Per Aspera"
May 26, 2017
6,424
10,245
Uruguayana, RS (BRA) [last: Rockville, MD (USA)]
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Grêmio, DC United, Cleveland Indian
Despite everything, Squiggle has us as 3rd best defense, 6th best offense, and 3rd best overall team after 8 rounds. It also predicts us finishing 5th on the ladder.

It certainly looks like our results are worse than our actual play, and that our performances resemble an yo-yo. The stats seem to confirm it. It is interesting to see how our overall numbers swing back and forth throughout this season on the graphic.

https://live.squiggle.com.au/
 

TeeKray

Moderator
Mar 1, 2014
9,126
43,809
Perth
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Despite everything, Squiggle has us as 3rd best defense, 6th best offense, and 3rd best overall team after 8 rounds. It also predicts us finishing 5th on the ladder.

It certainly looks like our results are worse than our actual play, and that our performances resemble an yo-yo. The stats seem to confirm it. It is interesting to see how our overall numbers swing back and forth throughout this season on the graphic.

https://live.squiggle.com.au/
Was it 2017 when we had the 2nd best attack and 2nd best defence yet still found a way to miss the top 4 and bomb out in an elimination final?

I feel like wins are the most useful stat.
 

GremioPower

"Ad Astra Per Aspera"
May 26, 2017
6,424
10,245
Uruguayana, RS (BRA) [last: Rockville, MD (USA)]
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Grêmio, DC United, Cleveland Indian
Was it 2017 when we had the 2nd best attack and 2nd best defence yet still found a way to miss the top 4 and bomb out in an elimination final?

I feel like wins are the most useful stat.
Sometimes, this discrepancy means misfortune; others, that the stats overrate some aspects of the game. Unfortunately, it seems to be the latter. No team can be THAT unlucky for so long.
 

Pappagallo

Co(m)poster
Jun 12, 2012
15,887
47,553
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Was it 2017 when we had the 2nd best attack and 2nd best defence yet still found a way to miss the top 4 and bomb out in an elimination final?

I feel like wins are the most useful stat.
We padded those stats by feasting on the weaker teams. Apart from the Essendon and Adelaide games *shudders* we lost to the good sides by small margins, which maintained our paper strength.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,445
70,192
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
At 4-4 we basically are a break even side but the quarter by quarter scores sort of confirm that.

1st quarter we are -7.2 down. The collingwood game the 1st quarter score was 0.3 v 7.6. Other 7 games balance out.

3rd quarter difference is basically due to 2 games. Carlton kicking with the wind it was 1.3 v 4.1 and against the crows 1.4 v 4.3

As discussed before last quarter we dominate inside 50's have poor conversion and oppo tend to be good on counter attack and kick goals and most seem to be run in from the goal square.

https://finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?SeasonID=2019&TeamID=9
1558150928042.png
 

Andre

Premium Platinum
Sep 3, 2002
23,081
24,861
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Despite everything, Squiggle has us as 3rd best defense, 6th best offense, and 3rd best overall team after 8 rounds. It also predicts us finishing 5th on the ladder.

It certainly looks like our results are worse than our actual play, and that our performances resemble an yo-yo. The stats seem to confirm it. It is interesting to see how our overall numbers swing back and forth throughout this season on the graphic.

https://live.squiggle.com.au/
Squiggle praises Defense over attack. So lots of low scoring games, despite not getting the wins overinflates our position there. The Squiggle model is built for the norm of a more balanced Defense / attack.

Port also gets overrated with Squiggle because it rates points more highly, as they are an unlucky miss to a degree, rather than poor play. So teams that are particularly prone to kicking more points then the average (come on down Ports!), get overrated, taking it that they’ll kick more points then expected to make it even up over the season. We know that isn’t happening (/didn’t happen for previous years). I like the Squiggle, but Kenball breaks it.
 

theDuckFarmer

Premium Platinum
Jul 7, 2007
7,053
14,466
Ziggurat City
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
LUFC, Patriots, Mitchelton-Scott
At 4-4 we basically are a break even side but the quarter by quarter scores sort of confirm that.

1st quarter we are -7.2 down. The collingwood game the 1st quarter score was 0.3 v 7.6. Other 7 games balance out.

3rd quarter difference is basically due to 2 games. Carlton kicking with the wind it was 1.3 v 4.1 and against the crows 1.4 v 4.3

As discussed before last quarter we dominate inside 50's have poor conversion and oppo tend to be good on counter attack and kick goals and most seem to be run in from the goal square.

https://finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?SeasonID=2019&TeamID=9
View attachment 676108
Our 1st and 3rd quarters are pants because the coaches have too much time to f*ck with our players’ heads before them.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,445
70,192
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
More confirmation we are a forward territory side, with poor conversion for goals inside 50 and scores inside 50 and we let the oppo get too many easy goals out the back because the oppo conversion rate is just about the best in the league, mainly because they score a lot of easy goals from the goal square or close to goal. At the end of Rd 10 we are averaging 11 inside 50's more than the oppo. We have won the inside 50's 8 of the 10 games.

This is from Footy Wire's Team/Opponent Totals Difference Inside 50 with total scores added.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2019&type=DT&sby=20


1559283768076.png
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,445
70,192
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
The damning numbers that don’t paint a pretty picture for Port Adelaide

These are the damning numbers that highlight why early season surprise packet Port Adelaide is struggling to hit the scoreboard and has lost its spot in the top eight. After 10 rounds, the Power has impressively averaged a competition-high 60.1 inside 50s. But its inability to turn territory advantage into goals is killing it. After starting the season with four wins from its first six matches, Port has won just one of its past four. And while injuries to key players have played a big part in its slump, so has its lack of connection going inside 50 and its errant goalkicking.
.....
It is goaling from just 19.1 per cent of its forward 50 thrusts — three per cent below the competition average and 10 per cent behind high-flying Geelong. When it comes to goalkicking, the Power hasn’t been able to hit the side of a barn. It is shooting at an awful 41.4 per cent accuracy — 4.4 per cent below the competition average. In contrast, the Cats are goaling with 53.2 per cent of their shots. Port's leading goalkicker is exciting first-year player Connor Rozee, with just 14.

......................
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/port-adelaide/the-damning-numbers-that-dont-paint-a-pretty-picture-for-port-adelaide/news-story/c0a30bfe11e47260504ddd81c166ac8e



1559373839712.png


1559373884864.png
1559373941944.png
 

GremioPower

"Ad Astra Per Aspera"
May 26, 2017
6,424
10,245
Uruguayana, RS (BRA) [last: Rockville, MD (USA)]
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Grêmio, DC United, Cleveland Indian
The damning numbers that don’t paint a pretty picture for Port Adelaide

These are the damning numbers that highlight why early season surprise packet Port Adelaide is struggling to hit the scoreboard and has lost its spot in the top eight. After 10 rounds, the Power has impressively averaged a competition-high 60.1 inside 50s. But its inability to turn territory advantage into goals is killing it. After starting the season with four wins from its first six matches, Port has won just one of its past four. And while injuries to key players have played a big part in its slump, so has its lack of connection going inside 50 and its errant goalkicking.
.....
It is goaling from just 19.1 per cent of its forward 50 thrusts — three per cent below the competition average and 10 per cent behind high-flying Geelong. When it comes to goalkicking, the Power hasn’t been able to hit the side of a barn. It is shooting at an awful 41.4 per cent accuracy — 4.4 per cent below the competition average. In contrast, the Cats are goaling with 53.2 per cent of their shots. Port's leading goalkicker is exciting first-year player Connor Rozee, with just 14.

......................
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/port-adelaide/the-damning-numbers-that-dont-paint-a-pretty-picture-for-port-adelaide/news-story/c0a30bfe11e47260504ddd81c166ac8e



View attachment 684502

View attachment 684503 View attachment 684504
SPP, Hoff, and Boak cannot get near our F50. It would improve our offense immediately.
 

afl2004

Premiership Player
Feb 7, 2014
3,332
5,125
reynella
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Chelsea FC , Boston Red Sox/celtics
I'm so glad that skills coach we got a few years back what a star he has been lol
 

afl2004

Premiership Player
Feb 7, 2014
3,332
5,125
reynella
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Chelsea FC , Boston Red Sox/celtics
The damning numbers that don’t paint a pretty picture for Port Adelaide

These are the damning numbers that highlight why early season surprise packet Port Adelaide is struggling to hit the scoreboard and has lost its spot in the top eight. After 10 rounds, the Power has impressively averaged a competition-high 60.1 inside 50s. But its inability to turn territory advantage into goals is killing it. After starting the season with four wins from its first six matches, Port has won just one of its past four. And while injuries to key players have played a big part in its slump, so has its lack of connection going inside 50 and its errant goalkicking.
.....
It is goaling from just 19.1 per cent of its forward 50 thrusts — three per cent below the competition average and 10 per cent behind high-flying Geelong. When it comes to goalkicking, the Power hasn’t been able to hit the side of a barn. It is shooting at an awful 41.4 per cent accuracy — 4.4 per cent below the competition average. In contrast, the Cats are goaling with 53.2 per cent of their shots. Port's leading goalkicker is exciting first-year player Connor Rozee, with just 14.

......................
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/port-adelaide/the-damning-numbers-that-dont-paint-a-pretty-picture-for-port-adelaide/news-story/c0a30bfe11e47260504ddd81c166ac8e



View attachment 684502

View attachment 684503 View attachment 684504
Skill Acquisition – how are we applying this to help us improve in 2018 – Carl Woods (Manager, Skill Acquisition)
Find out more about our skill development program … and yes, we’ll talk about goal kicking and what we are doing to improve this and our players’ overall skill level in 2018.

Member convention talking about our awful goal kicking in.2017 , glad things have improved so much LOL
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,445
70,192
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
News Corp Supercoach guys have done an article on quirky stats given we are at the midway point. I've cut most of their commentary out.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/afls-quirky-stat-leaders-revealed-midway-through-2019-season/news-story/3ac9dfa6d091a28220d17795473351a0
There are a number of statistics taken in footy, with disposals, marks, kicks and goals the major ones we rate a player’s performance on. But there are a number of statistics that aren’t available to us at the click of a button — some of them are quirky, but also quite fascinating. Check out the unknown stats leaders below.

KICK-INS
— Most kick-ins taken: Shannon Hurn (86)
— Most play on from kick-ins: Jake Lloyd (67)

RUNNING BOUNCES
Connor McKenna and Seb Ross (23)

METRES GAINED
James Sicily (560 per game)
He leads this stat due to his tendency to kick rather than handball, recording a 3.35:1 kick to handball ratio. Sicily also ranks in the top five in the competition for rebound 50s (1st), turnovers (3rd), intercepts (3rd) and marks (4th).

CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES
Patrick Cripps (253)

MOST/LEAST TIME ON GROUND
— Most time on ground: Ben Brown (97%) — most have played all matches
— Least time on ground: Luke Davies-Uniake (67%) — minimum eight games

On the flip side, young midfielder Luke Davies Uniacke has spent just 67 per cent of time on ground, the lowest of any player to have played eight matches.

HIGHEST/LOWEST DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY
— Highest: Shannon Hurn (88%) — minimum 20 disposals
— Lowest: Brayden Fiorini (59%) — minimum 20 disposals

Kick-in king Shannon Hurn leads the way in this department, while an emerging Suns midfielder has recorded the worst disposal efficiency of any player this season. Hurn tends to kick the ball long to a contest — with kicks 40m or longer to a contest classed as effective by Champion Data — especially from kick-ins. The distributor is averaging 22.8 effective disposals per game — hitting the target 88 per cent of the time. His retention is even more remarkable considering his kick to handball ratio is just under 4:1 — averaging 20.7 kicks and 5.3 handballs this season

In stark contrast, Brayden Fiorini has hit the target with just 59 per cent of his disposals in 2019. The Suns midfielder has been registering some good numbers, averaging 28.1 disposals per game (including 18.3 kicks), but hits the target with just 16.5 disposals a match.

HIGHEST/LOWEST HIT-OUTS TO ADVANTAGE
— Highest: Max Gawn (14.7 per game)
— Lowest: Callum Sinclair (5.5 per game)

Max Gawn has been a dominant force in the ruck this season, averaging 42.3 hit-outs per game, and his hit-out to advantage numbers are seeing his teammates get first use out of the middle. The bearded giant is averaging 14.7 hit-outs to advantage per game, putting the ball in his teammates’ bread basket with 34.8 per cent of his hit-outs.

SCORE ASSISTS
Tom Hawkins (26)

INTERCEPTS AND INTERCEPT MARKS
Intercepts — Luke Ryan (103)
Intercept marks — Jeremy McGovern (39)

Tom Hawkins leaders two categories — score assists and one-on-one contest wins.
HIGHEST/LOWEST ONE-ON-ONE CONTEST WINS
Highest: Tom Hawkins (50%) — minimum 20 contests
Lowest: Mitch Brown (10%) — minimum 20 contests.

FREE KICKS FOR AND AGAINST
Free for — Max Gawn (29)
Free against — Shane Mumford (30)
 

GremioPower

"Ad Astra Per Aspera"
May 26, 2017
6,424
10,245
Uruguayana, RS (BRA) [last: Rockville, MD (USA)]
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Grêmio, DC United, Cleveland Indian
Some of you might find this interesting. At least in our last 33 games, the scoring-shot differential hasn't changed much the final outcome.

2018 W-L Record: 12-10
2018 W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 11-10-1
W v. Melbourne (11.9:75 - 9.11:65)

2019 W-L Record (after 11 games): 6-5
2019 W-L Record by Scoring Shots (after 11 games): 6-4-1
L v. West Lakes (9.14:68 - 13.10:88)

Overall
W-L Record: 18-15 (72 pts)
W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 17-13-2 (72 pts)

Those two games listed are the only ones whose outcome were different.

----

The story is a not that much different for the Magpies (27 games).

2018 W-L Record: 4-13-1
2018 W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 4-13-1
D v. WWT (4.4:28 - 2.16:28)
L v. Glenelg (9.14:68 - 16.7:103)


2019 W-L Record (after 9 games): 5-4
2019 W-L Record by Scoring Shots (after 9 games): 5-4

Overall
W-L Record: 9-17-1 (19 pts)
W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 9-17-1 (19 pts)

----
----

The story is different in 2017, though:

POWER
2017 W-L Record: 14-9
2017 W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 16-7
L v. W. Coast (12.15:87 - 15.7:97)
L v. Richmond (8.15:63 - 11.10:76)
W v. St. Kilda (9.9:63 - 8.13:61)

L v. W. Coast
(10.16:76 - 12.6:78)

Overall (2017-2019)
W-L Record: 32-24 (128 pts)
W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 33-21-2 (136 pts)
 
Last edited:

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,445
70,192
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
Some of you might find this interesting. At least in our last 33 games, the scoring-shot differential hasn't changed much the final outcome.

2018 W-L Record: 12-7
2018 W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 11-7-1
W v. Melbourne (11.9:75 - 9.11:65)

2019 W-L Record (after 11 games): 6-5
2019 W-L Record by Scoring Shots (after 11 games): 6-4-1
L v. West Lakes (9.14:68 - 13.10:88)

Overall
W-L Record: 18-12 (72 pts)
W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 17-11-2 (72 pts)

Those two games listed are the only ones whose outcome were different.

----

The story is a not that much different for the Magpies (27 games).

2018 W-L Record: 4-13-1
2018 W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 4-13-1
D v. WWT (4.4:28 - 2.16:28)
L v. Glenelg (9.14:68 - 16.7:103)


2019 W-L Record (after 9 games): 5-4
2019 W-L Record by Scoring Shots (after 9 games): 5-4

Overall
W-L Record: 9-17-1 (19 pts)
W-L Record by Scoring Shots: 9-17-1 (19 pts)
Why only 19 games in 2018? What happened on the other 3 games.
 

GremioPower

"Ad Astra Per Aspera"
May 26, 2017
6,424
10,245
Uruguayana, RS (BRA) [last: Rockville, MD (USA)]
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Grêmio, DC United, Cleveland Indian
Why only 19 games in 2018? What happened on the other 3 games.
Great. Now I need to go to the office and check — only tomorrow morning.

I probably didn't update our record for the last three games, but only wrote the scores.
 
Top Bottom