List Mgmt. 2020 List Management: Contracts, Trading, Drafting, Academy

[Shadow89]

to get you have to give

nothing is for free and no reason for Geelong to feel a sense of entitlement

Tom Lynch.

 

[Giant Strides]

OK, so interested in people's opinion WRT the possible draft options this year, and the impact on GWS. Obviously it's highly speculative at this stage, so there's a lot of caveats on any possible pathway.

In recent days, Gil McLachlan has indicated that he still sees that there will be a draft in 2020 and there won't be any increase in the draft age. So then the big question seems to be around the size of the national draft - how many draftees are selected? - driven by seemingly two factors. (1) Whether club list sizes are going to be reduced. (2) The feeling that if the kids miss out on the majority of their U18 year (TAC Cup, Academy series, U18 Championships) there's not enough knowledge for clubs to want to expend their draft picks on speculative selections. On the other hand, there are quite a lot of academy/father-son/NGA kids, so their tied club will know a lot about them and would be happy to grab them for a reasonable price.

From my perspective, I dislike when people make the statement such as ''I'd be happy with a 2-round draft.'' Mainly because - what do they mean? For example, Geelong has 3 first round picks, can they only pick 2 players? Or to they mean, only picks 1-37 (including the extra pick granted to Gold Coast, now with Geelong) will be allowed? So what if a club wants more players, do they have to go with PSD, supplemental draft (if there is one?), try to trade into the top 37 (with what, next year's picks?)? If the AFL comes out and says ''Minimum of 2 selections in the ND'' then that's clear guidance, and the usual rules apply - if a club wants to cull more players and select more in the ND, then they can. If clubs don't, then their later picks will disappear. It does de-value later picks as with clubs not having to take 3 selections and perhaps electing not to due to uncertainty over players because of seeing them less, they won't want to accept them. It could be a bit of a bonanza for a club with academy/FS/NGS selections who are prepared to do a bit of a cull and swap out an early first round pick for a couple of later picks. E.g. Bulldogs looking to get Ugle-Hagan cheaply.

The list size question is the big unknown for me - no idea how AFL are going to jump on that. I don't think it's right to make a massive change on list sizes in one year & without pre-warning - and the GWS experience when it's initial list size concessions were suddenly removed 2 years early shows the problems created. It adversely impacts those off contract this season, rather than spreading the hurt around, but the excuse will likely be ''the coronavirus made me do it''. It would be better to have a gradual cull over, say, 3 years where at least some planning can occur - and the salary cap reduced similarly. Of course, if there are financial difficulties caused by coronavirus it needs to be dealt with immediately, but I favour a reduction in existing salaries (perhaps not a straight percentage across all contracts, but less cut from the bottom and slightly more cut from the top salaries) to achieve a percentage reduction in 2021 salary cap.

Given the discussion around there still being players but not a list composition as it currently is, it's possible the AFL could just cut the Cat A & Cat B rookie lists and roll to another system (a US-style top-up list). That probably hurts GWS a little, as our top-ups would likely come from NEAFL or the lower Sydney comp. Perhaps we might set up some MOU with Canberra Demons? So, perhaps it might look like a straight list size of 40. GWS is probably OK with that; we have 38 on our main list and it would simply mean culling the existing rookies down to a smaller number to fit into those couple of spare spots. Personally, I would like the Cat B rookie list to continue in some form; which would help us to bolster the NEAFL team (we already quite often run out of listed players when we hit a big injury patch).

So, granted it's entirely speculative, but if GWS was brought down to a 40 player total list for 2021, and had to take 2 selections at the ND, how would it look for us? Josh Green is the only academy kid on our radar. and he's well down the pecking order. He's the kind of kid we would take as a Cat B rookie I think, but maybe not in the circumstances I've speculated. Heater should retire though who knows if nothing much gets played this year (he might be rejuvenated). Otherwise, it really comes down to who leaves and what holes are created on the list. If we lose any players as free agents, there will likely be round 1 compensation (Jezza, Zac - although nowhere near where is deserved) - if so, some of the junior mids may be saved by having spare $. If we don't lose the FAs, then the second year mids may be more likely to go - combination of $ and (lack of) opportunity.

What are others' thoughts?

 

[PMBangers]

Picks from a Phantom Draft that was run over the p;ast couple of weeks

Pick 50 - Connor Stone
Oakleigh Chargers | General Forward
188 cm | 82 kg

View attachment 869409
An exciting Half Forward who's shown a bit in the midfield, Connor Stone is one of the X-Factor picks of the 2020 draft. Great Mark, ground work and handskills with athleticism as well whatConnor offers in the forward half can't be underestimated. There's not much Connor doesn't do well, with the major criticism being his production, he's not a massive disposal winner even in his best games, so adding that to his game would be awesome.

At his best Connor reminds me of a Jaiydn Stephenson type in the forward line, being a slightly shorter target that's just as good in the air as he is on the lead or at ground level.

For the GIANTS, he doesn't fill a need, but at this stage in the draft when a talent like Connor is available you don't get picky. I'd hope he would develop some form of midfield craft, as I view his acceleration a big POD, especially around stoppages

andleanback up with the cats

Also considered: Cody Brand, Charlie Byrne, Cody Raak, Nick Stevens, Josh Treacy, Josh Clarke

Pick 54 - Charlie Byrne
Murray Bushrangers | General Defender/ Midfielder
181 cm | 75 kg

View attachment 869618

Similar player to our first selection in 2019 in Lachlan Ash, although with more potential to develop into a midfielder at the next level. Like Stone he doesn't do much wrong with the ball or even without it, consistency could do with some improvement but I'm happy taking a punt on that being due to the role/ underage position in the squad rather than a genuine issue.

As mentioned I think he's similar to Lachie Ash with more midfield and forward potential.

Strengths are plentiful, really like his kicking and hand skills, takes the game on as well.

TheSmythe up with Richmond

Also considered: Cody Raak, Nick Stevens, Josh Treacy, Josh Clarke

FWIW I tried trading up to 16-20 range to go For Nik Cox or Zach Reid (although if I had gotten the trade I probably would've bid on Edwards as well, too good not to) to give us a long term prospect partner for Taylor

 

[Colonial]

Any word on any that may be re-signing?

Read a few things on social media that people would be very surprised if Jezza moved on.

 

[Giant Strides]

An interesting year, with the mooted list & TPP cuts. It probably doesn't change too much for GWS, as we always have that question about who we can fit in. TBH, I hope they go with a straight % cut for all contracts (or maybe above a certain threshold, or a sliding scale e.g. up to $100k no cut, $100 to $200k 5%, etc).

The details of how any list & salary cuts are to be done would impact us, particularly with a couple of high profile free agents. I would hope that someone like Jezza got a good payday when younger & remembers that now and is prepared to play the team game on $. I get the feeling he enjoys being out of the limelight, and the amenities that Sydney offers. I am a little worried that Zac gets squeezed out because other clubs will be able to offer more than we can. And as always, how many of the young kids can we keep. I noticed that we didn't rush out & sign Caldwell, Hately & O'Halloran to contract raises on bigger $ - so if anyone goes hopefully we get appropriate compensation.

But with contracts on hold, it's all just rumour & murmurings at the moment.

 

[fridgeman]

With no confirmation re list size and salary cap going forward we will see little movement here until that happens but I can see another season of significant loss of playing list and the priority will be to sign Cameron when it is possible and keeping Williams would be the 2nd priority
TOJ I can see getting good offers when they are possible and I dont thing he will go to a Vic club with the stories from last year about his confidence going nto games and not sure if it would be a good fit but maybe the Lions would be an option for him

The 2nd years will be another crop to watch and it could be that they are sacrificed if the list sizes and salary caps are significantly effected but I think the club will hold onto Hill and then it could come down to who has settled more in Sydney and if another of the 3 in Caldwell, Hately and O'Halloran stay that would be a great outcome for the club

Again it would be down to the changes at the club as to what happens with the veterans in Shaw, Mumford and Reid and it could be that all 3 retire at seasons end which I think is the most likely outcome

 

[GWS Goose]

It is so up in the air now. Id hope that list sizes aren't significantly reduced. The season is likely to start sooner than expected, so I'm guessing the losses would be less than expected.
unfortunately the list size being cut will hurt us more than most. We have a stack of AFL quality players, who are still improving on our list. If we are forced to cut, this reduces the value to us (through keeping or trading).
I'm hoping we keep 2 of Caldwell, Hately and O'Halloran. I can't help but think back to the video released after draft night, where we were clearly happy to nab all 3, would be disappointing if we don't get to benefit from such an amazing draft crop.

 

[dlanod]

List size reductions will be next year at the earliest IMO.

 

[Giant Strides]

I'm certainly in the group hoping the mooted list reduction is less rather than more; and also that it's gradual rather than a straight cut to 35 players (which I think is too few anyway). If the suggestions of an imminent extension in the TV rights contract are true, then there's a guarantee of $ there, so it should be more a case of tightening belts than making big cuts.

 

[ghostdog]

Pardon me, Giants fans. There's discussion about key forwards on our board given the uncertainty around Daniher. I'm wondering, with list reductions and the pressure to secure Cameron, what the likelihood of recruiting/trading Finlayson might be?
...and incidentally, what are his vices and virtues? Could he hold down the first tall forward role?

 

[GWS Goose]

Pardon me, Giants fans. There's discussion about key forwards on our board given the uncertainty around Daniher. I'm wondering, with list reductions and the pressure to secure Cameron, what the likelihood of recruiting/trading Finlayson might be?
...and incidentally, what are his vices and virtues? Could he hold down the first tall forward role?

Wouldn't surprise me if Finlayson was traded.
We are likely to lose someone.

 

[ghostdog]

Wouldn't surprise me if Finlayson was traded.
We are likely to lose someone.

...as opposed to cut then.
So what kind of return would you see? ...and who would likely be cut?

 

[dlanod]

I suspect Finlayson was likely to go even before list size squeezes came into play.

Someone's going to offer him more than the Giants because historically we've rotated that third tall position with quite a bit of success.

However if you expect him to play KPF instead of a third tall it's highly likely you'll be disappointed...

 

[Colonial]

Pardon me, Giants fans. There's discussion about key forwards on our board given the uncertainty around Daniher. I'm wondering, with list reductions and the pressure to secure Cameron, what the likelihood of recruiting/trading Finlayson might be?
...and incidentally, what are his vices and virtues? Could he hold down the first tall forward role?

Likely, just off what we can offer with other players higher up the food chain.

1st tall I would say no but a few years ago I would of said he couldn’t hold down any forward position and he proved me wrong so.....

 

[Giant Strides]

Pardon me, Giants fans. There's discussion about key forwards on our board given the uncertainty around Daniher. I'm wondering, with list reductions and the pressure to secure Cameron, what the likelihood of recruiting/trading Finlayson might be?
...and incidentally, what are his vices and virtues? Could he hold down the first tall forward role?

Obviously both Jeremys are out of contract, but Jezza will definitely be the priority for GWS (and no doubt everyone else!) while TOJ slips under the radar a bit. Ironically, you could have got him for virtually nothing last year as we had shopped him around for list/TPP management purposes.

TOJ's pros: he's slick, bit of speed, able to turn, good hands - he plays the mobile forward role pretty well (in fact, all 3 of our KPFs are pretty mobile).
Cons: History of depression, he can drop his head if things don't go his way as we saw a couple of games last year. (Nonetheless he still kicked 44 goals in 23 games.)

Obviously, last year's performance was 'wow' after playing a few games in the backline previously, and we'd love to keep him in that combination with Jezza & HH: the fact that they can all rotate around the various KPF roles on field pretty interchangeably is a bonus. But he won't be on a lot of $ and even without any list or TPP reductions, and I would have thought he could be enticed away for more $ fairly easily. However, I think that would be the worst thing on the world for him if he goes somewhere with expectation on him to be the number 1 forward. If he can drop his head as number 3 forward when things don't go his way, I'd be wary with more weight on his shoulders (and a big club like Essendon plus replacing Big Joe ...).

From the GWS perspective, I doubt that we'd try to stop him leaving under the circumstances. We've just drafted Jake Riccardi & could try him out; alternatively we could give someone like Kieran Briggs a run as the third forward/relief ruck as a developmental opportunity. We've been pretty successful in uncovering third forwards to date.

What he's worth is a hard question. He's worth a lot more than his draft position this year (but not last year), but it's only one season that he's done well and the potential deficiency I've described would no doubt be exploited as a rationale why he wouldn't attract a big price. I doubt that we'd delist him though. I would think realistically a third round pick would do it; I'd like to think a second rounder might be possible if he had another good year around that 2 goal a game mark and was seen that he could produce consistently.

Personally, I'd hate to see him go to Bombers, just because I think it wouldn't be good for him. If he can see past more $, staying at GWS as the third tall who profits from that position in a good team would actually be best for him. Otherwise, funnily enough, if I was Sydney Swans I'd give him a go & get rid of Sam Reid. You've still got the allure of Buddy, but he's hardly ever on the park; similarly Reid always breaks down; matching TOJ with McCartin & Blakey would replicate the mobile set up at GWS and might be something that produces a better forward structure for them. Blakey plays a lot of wing anyway. Even when Buddy plays, he might need to change his playing style with his seeminly recurring injuries, so TOJ could be useful to their set up while not being seen as the main man.

 

[dlanod]

Cons: History of depression, he can drop his head if things don't go his way as we saw a couple of games last year. (Nonetheless he still kicked 44 goals in 23 games.)

No physicality to speak of, which is my main expectation that he won't do too well in a true KPF role.

 

[GWS Goose]

...as opposed to cut then.
So what kind of return would you see? ...and who would likely be cut?

Finlayson won't be cut.
I m not sure what sort of trade value there would be for Finlayson.
I imagine it would be a 3rdish round or a trade up of picks or something

 

[ghostdog]

Finlayson won't be cut.
I m not sure what sort of trade value there would be for Finlayson.
I imagine it would be a 3rdish round or a trade up of picks or something

Our issue is obviously the prospect of Daniher either not getting himself fit or still deciding he wants to go, but there are limited choices around for his replacement. Peter Wright is another who interests me, but neither Wright nor Finlayson are capable of being that first tall option. Maybe Sam Day is but he's had a hell of a time with injuries. I didn't ask about Jez because I don't think that's likely; I've read about his love for GWS, more power to you. But if Daniher goes and the money's available I hope we'd enquire.

 

[ghostdog]

Obviously both Jeremys are out of contract, but Jezza will definitely be the priority for GWS (and no doubt everyone else!) while TOJ slips under the radar a bit. Ironically, you could have got him for virtually nothing last year as we had shopped him around for list/TPP management purposes.

TOJ's pros: he's slick, bit of speed, able to turn, good hands - he plays the mobile forward role pretty well (in fact, all 3 of our KPFs are pretty mobile).
Cons: History of depression, he can drop his head if things don't go his way as we saw a couple of games last year. (Nonetheless he still kicked 44 goals in 23 games.)

Obviously, last year's performance was 'wow' after playing a few games in the backline previously, and we'd love to keep him in that combination with Jezza & HH: the fact that they can all rotate around the various KPF roles on field pretty interchangeably is a bonus. But he won't be on a lot of $ and even without any list or TPP reductions, and I would have thought he could be enticed away for more $ fairly easily. However, I think that would be the worst thing on the world for him if he goes somewhere with expectation on him to be the number 1 forward. If he can drop his head as number 3 forward when things don't go his way, I'd be wary with more weight on his shoulders (and a big club like Essendon plus replacing Big Joe ...).

From the GWS perspective, I doubt that we'd try to stop him leaving under the circumstances. We've just drafted Jake Riccardi & could try him out; alternatively we could give someone like Kieran Briggs a run as the third forward/relief ruck as a developmental opportunity. We've been pretty successful in uncovering third forwards to date.

What he's worth is a hard question. He's worth a lot more than his draft position this year (but not last year), but it's only one season that he's done well and the potential deficiency I've described would no doubt be exploited as a rationale why he wouldn't attract a big price. I doubt that we'd delist him though. I would think realistically a third round pick would do it; I'd like to think a second rounder might be possible if he had another good year around that 2 goal a game mark and was seen that he could produce consistently.

Personally, I'd hate to see him go to Bombers, just because I think it wouldn't be good for him. If he can see past more $, staying at GWS as the third tall who profits from that position in a good team would actually be best for him. Otherwise, funnily enough, if I was Sydney Swans I'd give him a go & get rid of Sam Reid. You've still got the allure of Buddy, but he's hardly ever on the park; similarly Reid always breaks down; matching TOJ with McCartin & Blakey would replicate the mobile set up at GWS and might be something that produces a better forward structure for them. Blakey plays a lot of wing anyway. Even when Buddy plays, he might need to change his playing style with his seeminly recurring injuries, so TOJ could be useful to their set up while not being seen as the main man.

Didn't realise there was a depression issue there for him, which is sad. That's a cloud that never goes away. Replacing Daniher was never going to be easy if he goes but there are limited options. Given what you've said about his mental health, probably better he's somewhere good for him. Our forwardline is going to be under considerable pressure for at leadt a couple of years if we can't find a capable first tall.

 

[GWS Goose]

Our issue is obviously the prospect of Daniher either not getting himself fit or still deciding he wants to go, but there are limited choices around for his replacement. Peter Wright is another who interests me, but neither Wright nor Finlayson are capable of being that first tall option. Maybe Sam Day is but he's had a hell of a time with injuries. I didn't ask about Jez because I don't think that's likely; I've read about his love for GWS, more power to you. But if Daniher goes and the money's available I hope we'd enquire.

A fully fit Daniher is pretty close to irreplaceable. There are only half a dozen or so in that class, they are pretty hard to pry out of their existing clubs

 

[Orange Agent]

Essendon would be the worst club to go to if Finlayson was looking to move. A club with a long history of supporters giving it to their own players during matches is certainly not a good fit for a guy that struggles with confidence. I hope that he stays, he has finally found his spot in the side and it would be disappointing if his manager is pushing the biggest $$$ offer to him over what is the right place for him to play at his best.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Hi guys just a Question what’s going on with Jeremy Finlayson is he close to signing a new contract with you guys. Surely he wouldn’t leave when you guys are so close to a premiership

 

[Colonial]

Hi guys just a Question what’s going on with Jeremy Finlayson is he close to signing a new contract with you guys. Surely he wouldn’t leave when you guys are so close to a premiership

My guess is we are concentrating on Jezza and Williams 1st.
With the contracts freeze its hard to tell when anything will get done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[eDPS]

Essendon would be the worst club to go to if Finlayson was looking to move. A club with a long history of supporters giving it to their own players during matches is certainly not a good fit for a guy that struggles with confidence. I hope that he stays, he has finally found his spot in the side and it would be disappointing if his manager is pushing the biggest $$$ offer to him over what is the right place for him to play at his best.

Every clubs supporters do that mate

Personally think he works really well in your set up anyway and will play his best footy staying put I reckon, that’s if that matters to him more than a better pay check.

 

[Orange Agent]

Every clubs supporters do that mate

Not really to the level that a few clubs supporters do.

 

[GWS Goose]

Hi guys just a Question what’s going on with Jeremy Finlayson is he close to signing a new contract with you guys. Surely he wouldn’t leave when you guys are so close to a premiership

In an ideal world we would love to keep him.
I'm guessing we'll lose someone end of the year, not sure who, but Finlayson is one that is a risk of going.