Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
Surely the Essendon scenario is a statistical anomaly that you would exclude when they were forced to bring in top up players simply for the sake of fielding a team?
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List Mgmt. 2020 List Management
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Surely the Essendon scenario is a statistical anomaly that you would exclude when they were forced to bring in top up players simply for the sake of fielding a team?
Gotta admit that makes sense hadnt thought of the drugs scandal. Without actually doing the legwork you would have to say at least half of those 22 delistings were bought in to cover for suspensions. Off the top f my head im pretty sure 34 players copped suspensions and it affected players who were still playing. Not sure how many were still on the list though.
Even removing the Messendon situation from the sample maybe means 15 less players would have been conscripted in, tops. Based upon your figures though Mopsy, about 1500 or more have been turned over in the AFL over those 9 seasons you isolated. ie 18 Clubs x 9.7 players per season x 9 seasons = 1571 list changes. So removing the drug fiasco from the sample would only alter your average by 1% at the most. So maybe it is 9.6 players per club on average turned over per season, but that is still higher than I would have guessed at without looking into it. Do your figures include players who were delisted and re-rookied? There may be a few little quirks like that affecting the average upwards...
Yep includes players who were cut and re-rookied
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At a guess I would say clubs on average do that about once every two seasons, so that might bring the average net list changes down to about 9 per club per season perhaps.
That is true because as Steven Wright said, you should never criticise a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes.
Because then you will be a mile away.
And you will have his shoes.
I don’t know about that. Maybe if you said every club sits somewhere on the spectrum between truly contending at one extreme, and totally given up on immediately contending, traded out higher value players and headed to the draft to rebuild with kids at the other extreme, then I might agree with you. But each season you are lucky if you have 6 teams you would consider true flag contenders, and two clubs in total rebuild phase. From where I sit, that leaves a minimum of 10 clubs somewhere else on the spectrum.
With the Richmond list it is an interesting exercise to scan it and try to find players over 23 who are not automatic selections or near enough to it(when fully fit.) 25yo Macintosh(who is a premiership player) 26yo Aarts(we hope that doesn’t continue for Aarts’ sake....)
Of the other 18 or so players on the list, ie 23 or under and not currently close to automatic selection status, you would be pretty surprised if we don’t have 9 or 10 of those players helping form the backbone of our team in 4-5 years time. Naish, Higgins, Balta, Collier-Dawkins, Turner, Coleman-Jones, Eggmolesse-Smith, Chol, Garthwaite, and the best of the 2019 acquisitions, if we can hold onto most of them, it is nice to think they could provide half of a decent team, added to Stack, Baker, Castagna, Vlastuin, Ross, Higgins, Short, Rioli, Soldo, Bolton, Graham, who will all be under 30 still at that time, most of them well under. So we could feasibly have 15 or more of our best 22 in 2024 already on our list now.
Of the list that fronted up for our 2015 season, about 15 of those players were automatic selections or near enough in 2019 if fully fit.
Grimes, Martin, Ellis, Grigg, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Edwards, Astbury, Houli, Rance, Vlastuin, Short Castagna, Soldo, Lambert.
Mcintosh, Menadue, Butler remained as fringe players, never threatening automatic inclusion status.
Bingo! Hawks stayed up by topping up while we are adding kids in every yr, be interesting to see if we can remain where we are for a longer time than Hawks did with a different approach. For mine it all comes down to our development, we bring these kids up they & come on we'll be up for a while yet, if they don't develope as we all think they will then we won't. personally i think we'll be fine.
On the 1st paragraph, i should clarify with the "middle 10" as you noted, if they are in that bracket for a few yrs, take Essendoom for example, that'd be a Club paying the price for thinking they are on the rise to contending & getting it wrong, but a Club would never admit that, they'll only tell you that are rebuilding or contending. As i said in my post that is the most important question a Club must ask itself re: where they are at, if they get it wrong i.e Ess it'd set them back for many yrs.
Whilst we draft for talent with our draft selections we will need to have the ability to bring in "free" Top end talent like Lynch through the free agency and trades.
Cut Lunch gave the RFC a massive boost in the contention stakes...only to be compromised by Rance's re-tirement! Back to the pack...
Tiger_Of_Old
THE_GUN:"Why don't you use your reg acc"7/9/24
Nah.Rance is over the hill.
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
Well over the hill chasing his wife. With a bunch of luck he'll come back over that hill and into the fold at the RFC. Otherwise he's out of sight chasing something else.
Thought i would bring this here Lsta062 and away from the MB,
you mentioned the older core but when you compare it with other clubs it really is not that bad.
Below is the list of each teams number of players who will be aged 28+ at seasons end 2020 which is September 26.
16 - Geelong
15 - West Coast
13 - Port Adelaide
12 - Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne
11 - GWS
10 - Adelaide
9 - Gold Coast, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
8 - Essendon, St Kilda, Brisbane,
7 - Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney
This list is only valid till seasons end 2020 as player trades and retirements alter these numbers for 2021.
you mentioned the older core but when you compare it with other clubs it really is not that bad.
Below is the list of each teams number of players who will be aged 28+ at seasons end 2020 which is September 26.
16 - Geelong
15 - West Coast
13 - Port Adelaide
12 - Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne
11 - GWS
10 - Adelaide
9 - Gold Coast, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
8 - Essendon, St Kilda, Brisbane,
7 - Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney
This list is only valid till seasons end 2020 as player trades and retirements alter these numbers for 2021.
And this is the list for each teams players who will aged 30+ at seasons end 2020 which is September 26.
9 - Geelong
8 - GWS
7 - Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn
6 - Carlton, West Coast
5 - Adelaide, Essendon, Brisbane,
4 - Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
3 - Gold Coast, St Kilda, North Melbourne
2 - Fremantle
9 - Geelong
8 - GWS
7 - Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn
6 - Carlton, West Coast
5 - Adelaide, Essendon, Brisbane,
4 - Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
3 - Gold Coast, St Kilda, North Melbourne
2 - Fremantle
Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
That list is all good and well, but it also means some 27 years olds will be in there and that is still part of the best playing years for some.
Then consider where those players sit in the list, ie: Best 22, In and Out, Gap Fillers, Perenial Potential, LTI. When you look at the actual players, it gets a little more interesting. For example Geelong had 12 of their 16 in theie 'oldies' list play against us in the Prelim (one game from a GF) and 2 of the others have just been recruited FFS! (Stevens and Jenkins). Then when you look at Richmond's list, we too had 12 players play in the GF if you add three guys who missed the 'oldies' list by some days. Not that big a difference really, not as much as the raw figures might indicate anyway.
Another look at say Carlton with one of the least number over 28 and compare to say Fremantle with the same number, I know which I want. Getting and keeping these guys on the park is what makes all the difference. When they are not, it makes lists look more brittle, BUT opens up opportunities for the young types to replace oldies.
[TD valign="top"] Carlton [/TD][TD valign="top"] Fremantle [/TD][TD valign="top"] Geelong [/TD][TD valign="top"] Sydney [/TD][TD valign="top"] Richmond [/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Simpson (36)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Mundy (35)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Ablett (36)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Franklin (33)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Edwards (32)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Murphy (33)[/TD][TD valign="top"]S.Hill (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"]H.Taylor (34)[/TD][TD valign="top"]J.Kennedy (32)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Houli (32)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Betts (33)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Walters (29)[/TD][TD valign="top"]J Selwood (32)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Sinclair (31)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Reiwoldt (31)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Kruezer (31)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Colyer (29)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Hawkins (32)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Rampe (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Cotchin (30)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"]E. Curnow (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Fyfe (29)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Jenkins (31)[/TD][TD valign="top"]S.Reid (28)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Martin (29)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Casboult (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"]B.Matera (28)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Dangerfield (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"]S.Gray (28)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Grimes (29)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Jones (29)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Conca (28)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Touhy (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Naismith (28)[/TD][TD valign="top"]Astbury (29)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"]J.Steven (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Lambert (28)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Henderson (30)[/TD][TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Pickett (28)[/TD]
[TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"]29: Blicavs, Duncan, Rohan, Stanley.
28: Dahlhaus, Guthrie, Manegola.[/TD][TD valign="top"][/TD]
[TD valign="top"]Lynch, Prestia and Caddy all just miss the cut off by days![/TD]
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That's really encouraging. Geelong, West Coast, GWS, Collingwood all with more "old" players than us.
I do worry that our old players are currently very handy for our team: Houli, Edwards, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Astbury.
But I guess those other teams would be similar:
Geelong: Ablett, Taylor, Selwood, Hawkins, Tuohey, Dangerfield all "old".
West Coast: Kennedy, Hurn, Schofield, Jetta, Natanui, Shuey all old.
GWS: Shaw, Mumford, Sam Jacobs, Phil Davis, Callan Ward, de Boer all old
Collingwood: Pendlebury, Mayne, Varcoe, Levi Greenwood, Ben Reid, Dayne Beams, Jeremy Howe all old. Mason Cox & Steele Sidebottom getting there.
Of those, its probably Collingwood's list that seems insignificant except for Pendlebury.
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Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast (our current comparisons) also have an older core. I think they will disappear from contention by 2021-2022. Port Adelaide and North Melbourne are transitioning to a younger core at the moment. For us, I think our core has a lot of essential players that would be 29+ by the end of the year, which is why I said that our core is starting to age.
As you put it well in the other thread though, it doesn’t really matter as they have done well with it so we shouldn’t really worry. Those who worry about their players ageing are generally the supporters whose teams have not won a Premiership like Fremantle 2015.
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Exactly.
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
Probably 2 more years with that older group. And if we manage it right and get lucky then up to 4 more years, as long as the younger guys develop and help out.
So I'm pretty stoked there. We should be contending until 2021-2023.
After that we need to replace some very very good players. Possible, but we'll see.
Missing by a few days adds to it yes but i needed a cut off and seasons end is perfect as GF day is the final day of the season, this time next year and those lists alter and who knows who is against it age wise, it all changes as your list evolves and you find players from your list, ala Soldo, Bolton, Baker just to name three who have plenty of years left, i'd rather be finding players while winning flags than trying to find players when down the bottom and hope they bring you up the ladder for a sustained run while you have an ageing older core.
Look at this list of the under 28's from the 2019 GF and what their age's will be at seasons end 2021.
29 - Caddy
28 - Prestia, Lynch Broad
27 - Vlaustin, Nankervis,
25 - Short, Soldo, Castagna,
24 - Rioli
23 - Baker
22 - Bolton
and then there are those who didnt play who are all worthy of a spot and their age's at seasons end 2021
McIntosh - 27
graham - 23
Higgins - 21
Stack - 21
Balta - 21
That's 17 players and you still have a very strong side and then when you add in potential recruits using the money the older core will vacate, i imagine we will be contending for a fair while yet.
As for Carlton, they have a list that when the older core retire will leave a very young and inexperienced older core, they currently have only 5 players aged 25/26/27 and 28 and they are Newnes, Newman, McGovern, Plowman and Docherty. Their next cabs of the rank under those 5 are Martin ,Cripps, Gibbons and Lang at 25 and 24 and then only three more players Pittonet, Marchbank and Goddard at 23 years old, the rest are 22 and under ( 26 players ) They are still a massive time away from filling out their list age wise and by then the above 12 players will be either delisted, retired or rapidly approaching 30 years of age.
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Agreed, this is a big issue for them. It wouldn't surprise me to see them move into finals in 2021 and then drop way back down again when those guys retire.
It will take them another couple of years for the younger kids to become their senior core before their list is balanced.
I see their list at the same profile as what we were back in 2004 (massive gap of players 24-28), it will take quite a while to fix it.
I can't see them winning enough games to even exit the bottom six let alone enough to make finals, i still think they are at least 5-6 years away from contending for finals and even then they are not guaranteed to make it, Cripps i think has a decision to make at end of 2021 when he becomes a free agent and Carlton are still stuck in the bottom six.
1. Stay in the hope Carlton make finals before his career ends
2. Leave to play finals at a contender.
I think he is too Carltonised and could quite possibly get to 200 games without a final, currently 101 and 0.
I'm sure plenty said the same about us around 2008 as well after Hardwick first took over. They do still have some mature AFL grade talent plus some good kids coming through. Pretty much back to square one as far as a rebuild is concerned. I can see them having the potential to get to 7th or 8th before dropping off again.
