2020 Non-Crows AFL Discussion

[ams4crows]

so the AFL closes games to the public does that mean if a crows home game is shut down I get a refund for that game from my membership?
Does the AFL compensate us the fans? because we bought the memberships before we knew this was going to be a reality?

 

[GreyCrow]

What about support staff?

Ground and gate staff etc

 

[DJ75]

so the AFL closes games to the public does that mean if a crows home game is shut down I get a refund for that game from my membership?
Does the AFL compensate us the fans? because we bought the memberships before we knew this was going to be a reality?

I wouldn't expect any money back, but a combination of rolling memberships over to the next year and merchandise compensation etc... is most likely. It will be a massive hit for all the clubs.

 

[GROTTO]

so the AFL closes games to the public does that mean if a crows home game is shut down I get a refund for that game from my membership?
Does the AFL compensate us the fans? because we bought the memberships before we knew this was going to be a reality?

No.

The AFL does not operate like that. It doesnt believe it should be penalise because of the coronavirus.






Would be funny to see fans jump the gate or sneak and sit in the grandstands. lol.

 

[Hell Boy6669]

Signed up for a membership this year, going to be so frustrating if games are then played in empty stadiums.

Surely we are due some sort of compensation if this happens.

 

[ams4crows]

Wonder if umpiring will be better in lock out games as there is no crowd to influence them?

 

[Vader]

Wonder if umpiring will be better in lock out games as there is no crowd to influence them?

Umpiring was pretty poor at times in the pre-season games (particularly our game vs Gold Coast). There wasn't much of a crowd there to influence them. Poor umpires will always umpire poorly.

 

[Mego Red]

Yes indeed - i'm fascinated by the population's reactions based on the fear of the virus.
It's a "panic-epidemic" rather than a "pandemic".
In my view, this whole episode shows how powerful and dangerous the media is with its fear-mongering and panic inducing sensationalism.

Well, it's very transmissible, and moves fast.

We're currently at where Italy was a couple of weeks ago, and they've now had to close their borders.

The main issue is that 20% of people with it need hospitalization. If you slow its growth, hospitals can cope with that. If not, the overflow means you cant manage critical cases and the volume of loss of life increases.

 

[GameofSloanes]

I wasn't being a dick about it. It just annoys me when that fool Trump is trying to say the common flu is worse and nothing to see here and some of his idiot supporters believe it doesn't even exist and brought about by the democrats to bring him down. Meanwhile they now have a huge problem in the US heading towards how Italy is due to the fact that they didn't have the proper test kits and haven't even been testing in any significant numbers. Meanwhile you have some experts predicting 60% of the world's popn will get this thing with anywhere from 50 to 100 million dead. And that's only the first wave. The 2nd wave is generally much deadlier and if it mutates into a much deadlier strain we are all f’ed.
The real problem is these wet markets which China has shut down roughly 20,000 of them since Corona started. But they are rampant still right throughout Asia run by organised crime . These things are ticking time bombs which all governments need to get rid of once and for all.

Well you certainly don't need to convince me that Trump is a fool. Most dangerous western leader since the 1930s imo

 

[Vader]

Well, it's very transmissible, and moves fast.

We're currently at where Italy was a couple of weeks ago, and they've now had to close their borders.

The main issue is that 20% of people with it need hospitalization. If you slow its growth, hospitals can cope with that. If not, the overflow means you cant manage critical cases and the volume of loss of life increases.

However, if you slow its growth then the peak for COVID-19 will coincide with the peak for the regular flu-season - and we know that the Australian Health (hospital) System struggles with a bad flu season under normal conditions (e.g. ambulances going on bypass and being diverted to other hospitals).

Ideally, COVID would have struck (in Australia) a month ago, when the medical system was under the least amount of strain - not peaking in winter, when it's at maximum capacity.

 

[SugarShane]

Signed up for a membership this year, going to be so frustrating if games are then played in empty stadiums.

Wouldn't be able to tell the difference at a Port V GWS game.

 

[ad victoriam]

I’m not sure BB was unpopular in the way most coaches become before getting the flick. I think it was more that he was just very bad at his job. Reckon the players liked him a lot. Certainly can’t recall any reports of player discontent.

Yea heard the same, He was Shit at his Job and to make matters worse a micro-manager, And I Have heard that out of the work environment he was OK to some, but personally I have to dispute that because every time I met the man thru his playing day and so-called management days he was what I would call Mr always right, He may have been OK to certain players but was he the same to the lesser lights and staff.

 

[Vader]

Here's some basic Coronavirus maths.

Assumption 1: 60% of the Australian population catches the virus = 15 million
Assumption 2: Of these, 5% will require hospital treatment = 750,000
Assumption 3: Even distribution of casualties contracting the disease. = 62,500 new casualties requiring hospital treatment per month.
Assumption 4: Average time of illness for hospitalised casualties is 5-6 weeks (call it 5.5) = 86,000 casualties requiring hospitalisation at any given time.

Australia has a total of 92,100 hospital beds (source: Google). Of these roughly 86% (79,200) are available for overnight stays (source: AIHW), many of these will be required for the treatment of non-Coronavirus patients.

This maths uses some fairly simplistic and optimistic assumptions. Reality is even worse.

• The 5% number is based on reported casualty rates in Wuhan, which has a much younger demographic compared to Australia. Australia's older demographic is likely to result in a hospitalisation rate closer to 9% or 10%.
• I've also assumed a flat distribution rate for new cases. We know that this is bullshit, and that casualty numbers are likely to grow exponentially until enough of the population has been exposed to the disease and developed immunity, after which the number of new cases begins to fall. The numbers requiring hospitalisation during the peak infection will be far higher than the numbers I estimated above.

Based on this maths, there is not a snowball's chance in Hell that the hospital system will have enough beds to cope with Coronavirus - and that's with the most optimistic assumptions. Things get even uglier when we consider the availability of medical staff, many of whom will catch the virus themselves.

 

[ad victoriam]

Here's some basic Coronavirus maths.

Assumption 1: 60% of the Australian population catches the virus = 15 million
Assumption 2: Of these, 5% will require hospital treatment = 750,000
Assumption 3: Even distribution of casualties contracting the disease. = 62,500 new casualties requiring hospital treatment per month.
Assumption 4: Average time of illness for hospitalised casualties is 5-6 weeks (call it 5.5) = 86,000 casualties requiring hospitalisation at any given time.

Australia has a total of 92,100 hospital beds (source: Google). Of these roughly 86% (79,200) are available for overnight stays (source: AIHW), many of these will be required for the treatment of non-Coronavirus patients.

This maths uses some fairly simplistic and optimistic assumptions. Reality is even worse.

• The 5% number is based on reported casualty rates in Wuhan, which has a much younger demographic compared to Australia. Australia's older demographic is likely to result in a hospitalisation rate closer to 9% or 10%.
• I've also assumed a flat distribution rate for new cases. We know that this is bullshit, and that casualty numbers are likely to grow exponentially until enough of the population has been exposed to the disease and developed immunity, after which the number of new cases begins to fall. The numbers requiring hospitalisation during the peak infection will be far higher than the numbers I estimated above.

Based on this maths, there is not a snowball's chance in Hell that the hospital system will have enough beds to cope with Coronavirus - and that's with the most optimistic assumptions. Things get even uglier when we consider the availability of medical staff, many of whom will catch the virus themselves.

You forget one thing, the military and civilian emergency workers, Australia has a strong civilian emergency force and along with the military support, and can double the Beds.
We don't need to set up a 10,000-bed hospital in 2 weeks when we can set up a tent city at Woodside in 5 days, along with setting up up a tent city in the Showgrounds next to Keswick barracks, every state has military bases with unused rooms and land to erect a city of tents, and field Hospital units.


Australia biggest issue which could turn out to be an advantage is getting a cure to everyone before it gets bad. then getting a vaccination out

 

[Vader]

You forget one thing, the military and civilian emergency workers, Australia has a strong civilian emergency force and along with the military support, and can double the Beds.
We don't need to set up a 10,000-bed hospital in 2 weeks when we can set up a tent city at Woodside in 5 days, along with setting up up a tent city in the Showgrounds next to Keswick barracks, every state has military bases with unused rooms and land to erect a city of tents, and field Hospital units.


Australia biggest issue which could turn out to be an advantage is getting a cure to everyone before it gets bad. then getting a vaccination out

Most of the ADF's doctors and medical staff are reservists, who have other jobs in the civilian world.

Yes, we can get the Army to put people in tents, but we're robbing Peter to pay Paul when it comes to the medical staff treating them.

Also, I don't think that the Army has enough tents to house 80,000 casualties at the same time.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ad victoriam]

Most of the ADF's doctors and medical staff are reservists, who have other jobs in the civilian world.

Yes, we can get the Army to put people in tents, but we're robbing Peter to pay Paul when it comes to the medical staff treating them.

Also, I don't think that the Army has enough tents to house 80,000 casualties at the same time.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

ADF has a lot more medical staff than people believe, 7th battalion has a couple of full-time doctors and well over a dozen trained medical staff who are trained for emergency setups including delegation, which is important, as a lot of soldiers are medically trained so the basic care will go to them while the trained personnel will cover the serious events, Then we have the base hospital who are all ADF employees, with a few reservists. the field hospital are also major ADF personnel with a few Reservist. There is a big Difference aswell ADF medical response is under a state of emergency they will delegate minor duties, to soldiers and emergency workers,
The ADF also has field Kitchens, Field toilets and hygiene stations, in every state. along with organisation structures to enable events like this to work.

As for tents, you will be surprised. the ADF don't throw tents away.

 

[BACCS]

Here's some basic Coronavirus maths.

Assumption 1: 60% of the Australian population catches the virus = 15 million
Assumption 2: Of these, 5% will require hospital treatment = 750,000
Assumption 3: Even distribution of casualties contracting the disease. = 62,500 new casualties requiring hospital treatment per month.
Assumption 4: Average time of illness for hospitalised casualties is 5-6 weeks (call it 5.5) = 86,000 casualties requiring hospitalisation at any given time.

Australia has a total of 92,100 hospital beds (source: Google). Of these roughly 86% (79,200) are available for overnight stays (source: AIHW), many of these will be required for the treatment of non-Coronavirus patients.

This maths uses some fairly simplistic and optimistic assumptions. Reality is even worse.

• The 5% number is based on reported casualty rates in Wuhan, which has a much younger demographic compared to Australia. Australia's older demographic is likely to result in a hospitalisation rate closer to 9% or 10%.
• I've also assumed a flat distribution rate for new cases. We know that this is bullshit, and that casualty numbers are likely to grow exponentially until enough of the population has been exposed to the disease and developed immunity, after which the number of new cases begins to fall. The numbers requiring hospitalisation during the peak infection will be far higher than the numbers I estimated above.

Based on this maths, there is not a snowball's chance in Hell that the hospital system will have enough beds to cope with Coronavirus - and that's with the most optimistic assumptions. Things get even uglier when we consider the availability of medical staff, many of whom will catch the virus themselves.

Some very large assumptions there

 

[Vader]

Some very large assumptions there

Yes, as noted - most of the assumptions I made were of the optimistic nature. The reality we face is actually worse than those numbers suggest.

 

[Vader]

ADF has a lot more medical staff than people believe, 7th battalion has a couple of full-time doctors and well over a dozen trained medical staff who are trained for emergency setups including delegation, which is important, as a lot of soldiers are medically trained so the basic care will go to them while the trained personnel will cover the serious events, Then we have the base hospital who are all ADF employees, with a few reservists. the field hospital are also major ADF personnel with a few Reservist. There is a big Difference aswell ADF medical response is under a state of emergency they will delegate minor duties, to soldiers and emergency workers,
The ADF also has field Kitchens, Field toilets and hygiene stations, in every state. along with organisation structures to enable events like this to work.

As for tents, you will be surprised. the ADF don't throw tents away.

Putting people in tents is fine if they're just undergoing isolation. It's not suitable for people who require hospitalisation.

It's one thing for soldiers to be trained as battlefield medics, capable of performing triage, and basic battlefield trauma treatment. Those medics are not trained to provide ongoing support to people who require hospitalisation and 24/7 care. That requires trained doctors and nurses.

Base Hospitals are the equivalent of what you'd find in a small town (2-5,000 people). Similarly, a typical field hospital has a capacity of less than 100 beds. What is required are an additional 100 hospitals the size of the Royal Adelaide Hospital (800 bed capacity). The ADF does not have anywhere near that capacity.

The ADF may be able to help with isolation. It doesn't have anywhere near the capacity required to cope with 80,000 casualties who require hospitalisation.

 

[ad victoriam]

Putting people in tents is fine if they're just undergoing isolation. It's not suitable for people who require hospitalisation.

It's one thing for soldiers to be trained as battlefield medics, capable of performing triage, and basic battlefield trauma treatment. Those medics are not trained to provide ongoing support to people who require hospitalisation and 24/7 care. That requires trained doctors and nurses.

Base Hospitals are the equivalent of what you'd find in a small town (2-5,000 people). Similarly, a typical field hospital has a capacity of less than 100 beds. What is required are an additional 100 hospitals the size of the Royal Adelaide Hospital (800 bed capacity). The ADF does not have anywhere near that capacity.

The ADF may be able to help with isolation. It doesn't have anywhere near the capacity required to cope with 80,000 casualties who require hospitalisation.

People who require hospitalisation and 24/7 care will be in the Permanent or temporary hospitals either bricks and Mortor or tents, and don't for once think the tents are not appropriate, Miltary personnel have been treated in them since ww2, and it happening today oversea in camps, include major surgeries and aftercare.
You don't understand Soldiers will not be performing triage qualified Personnel will, what the basic medical trained personnel will do is the basics care. day to day needs freeing up the experienced medical practitioners. Its all part of the Emergency plan, been thru it and have been trained in managing parts of it. And most of these battlefield Medics are trained to work in hospitals,
Also A base Hospital can and Has been in real-life events and training exercise gone from small to a major care centre in a short period of time,
Field Hospital staff are trained and have the equipment to treat large cluster of patients.
Just curious do you understand the use of HMAS Adelaide and HMAS Canberra Each ship has a 40-bed hospital with two operating theatres, including an eight-bed critical care unit with the capacity of a regional hospital. and they can be expanded on and handle more patients,

Again you missed the major difference, they have been trained to delegate, a basic military nurse can oversee and supervise a larger group, The ADF is trained to delegate to oversee to share their knowledge.

The only reason most Australian have not seen the full effect of the ADF disaster relief platform is that the states have to request there help and they rarely do, but in this case, the Feds will take over and will declare a pandemic witch overrules the states.
Overseas they have been if full effect,

 

[Vader]

People who require hospitalisation and 24/7 care will be in the Permanent or temporary hospitals either bricks and Mortor or tents, and don't for once think the tents are not appropriate, Miltary personnel have been treated in them since ww2, and it happening today oversea in camps, include major surgeries and aftercare.
You don't understand Soldiers will not be performing triage qualified Personnel will, what the basic medical trained personnel will do is the basics care. day to day needs freeing up the experienced medical practitioners. Its all part of the Emergency plan, been thru it and have been trained in managing parts of it. And most of these battlefield Medics are trained to work in hospitals,
Also A base Hospital can and Has been in real-life events and training exercise gone from small to a major care centre in a short period of time,
Field Hospital staff are trained and have the equipment to treat large cluster of patients.
Just curious do you understand the use of HMAS Adelaide and HMAS Canberra Each ship has a 40-bed hospital with two operating theatres, including an eight-bed critical care unit with the capacity of a regional hospital. and they can be expanded on and handle more patients,

Again you missed the major difference, they have been trained to delegate, a basic military nurse can oversee and supervise a larger group, The ADF is trained to delegate to oversee to share their knowledge.

The only reason most Australian have not seen the full effect of the ADF disaster relief platform is that the states have to request there help and they rarely do, but in this case, the Feds will take over and will declare a pandemic witch overrules the states.
Overseas they have been if full effect,

I'm aware of the Role 2 Enhanced Medical Facilities on Adelaide and Canberra. They are, as you say, 40 bed hospitals. We need beds for 80,000 patients at a time - probably more.

To put that into context again, the RAH has 800 beds. Australia needs the equivalent of 100x RAHs just to treat Coronavirus patients.

Neither the ADF, nor the Australian Hospital System, nor the combination of the two, has the capacity to cope with that number of casualties.

Read this article, which states what's going on in Italy right now. As noted at the top, the Lombardy region of Italy is the most developed region of Italy, with a world class healthcare system.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...d/news-story/2ad4e73fda647c08e216e05e05600093

Here's what's happening (according to an A&E specialist currently in Lombardy):
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

 

[skam85]

That's all well and good but a bit of scare-mongering isn't going to see me miss the F1 this weekend

 

[ad victoriam]

I'm aware of the Role 2 Enhanced Medical Facilities on Adelaide and Canberra. They are, as you say, 40 bed hospitals. We need beds for 80,000 patients at a time - probably more.

To put that into context again, the RAH has 800 beds. Australia needs the equivalent of 100x RAHs just to treat Coronavirus patients.

Neither the ADF, nor the Australian Hospital System, nor the combination of the two, has the capacity to cope with that number of casualties.

Read this article, which states what's going on in Italy right now. As noted at the top, the Lombardy region of Italy is the most developed region of Italy, with a world class healthcare system.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...d/news-story/2ad4e73fda647c08e216e05e05600093

Here's what's happening (according to an A&E specialist currently in Lombardy):
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

Mate I have seen how the ADF reacts to emergencies, and how they delegate first hand, They can adapt, a tent city next to Woodside and Keswick can handle mild cases, freeing up Hospitals to handle the critical,

And just for info I have been to several camps overseas and seen first hand how a small number of doctors and medical staff can work and handle when they are allowed to delegate,
Our ADF have been running and setting up emergency care centres overseas, they have an experts who have run and organise hospitals far greater than the 800 RAH has, it all about delegation and management.
Yes it will be Hard and a lot of poeple are going to suffer
But just because you have never seen the ADF handle a situation like this before does not mean it has not happened,
Our ADF played prominent parts in supplying medical aid and assistance to several Afician Famine, several Refugee camps some current, and don't forget the tusumi,
They were responsible for setting up and running portable hospitals, the Field Hospital and the 2 Adeliade class ships act as control centres and handle the major cases,
And Note while they are small re emergency wise that can run larger camps re recovery which does not require as many specialist, allowing the mainstream to deal with the major issues,

All I can say Is I have seen first hand some of these, with ADF run facilities and United Nation facilities, And while my expertise was not medical its obvious we have experience in this,
Also Australia has one advantage most others forget, we have started to prepare,

 

[jackster83]

The RAN can also utilise some of their ships as floating hospitals. They've done it before when they've had natural disasters in the South Pacific.

 

[Vader]

The RAN can also utilise some of their ships as floating hospitals. They've done it before when they've had natural disasters in the South Pacific.

2 ships - HMAS Adelaide and Canberra... and not on the scale of 80,000 requiring hospitalisation and the use of ventilators.

It's not just a case of not enough beds or personnel (we don't have enough of either), it's also the specialist equipment - primarily ventilators and tubing to pump air into the patients' lungs. There just isn't enough equipment to go around, which is why cases will need to be prioritised as they are currently doing in Italy - and those which are given lower priorities will be left to die.