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List Mgmt. 2020 Trade and List Management Thread III

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Ardent Roo said:
Proves my point that earlier picks are no guarantee of the best outcome long term.
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True, but 20 years of statistics show that there is a pretty direct correlation between the number a player was taken in the draft and everything from number of games played, premierships won, Brownlow votes, etc.
 
 
Roosurgence said:
By all reports they won’t use those pick this year and if they have a specific target at 2, they may be happy to back themselves to climb the ladder next year and only be giving up pick 10-12?

So essentially in their eyes they are giving Pick 10-12 next year to get who they want this year.

Clubs will know we won’t accept a fair value for 2 it will need to be massive overs.

Can you imaging the PR disaster if we gave up Pick 2 for fair value and missed out on the next Buddy/Dusty?
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Good points.
 
Ohhh Errol said:
IF this was the case, it wouldn't matter what steak knives were thrown in, it will become BF folk lore along with Tambling and to a lesser extend the Dees giving up Josh Kelly.

Judges put blinkers on when it comes to hindsight trade reviews. And generally, if it comes down to we giving up a superior player for two, it will be deemed a failure.
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That’s the risk you take.

I guess with so many list spots when thinking for the now we will most likely take the overs to try and get some quality in the second round.

It also depends on how we rate the top 5? If we don’t see that much of a gap between 2-5 then it’s totally worth the trade. If McDonald and Holland’s are way in front of Tilthorpe, DGB and Phillips then you keep Pick 2 and take the top shelf.
 

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Ohhh Errol said:
It was more to indicate that i'm not alone in valuing pick 2 highly. We're yet to see evidence of any offers, for all we know Dodo offers unders which gets a vote in your camp. Ditto GC.
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Well if they offer unders we don't take it. Not very bloody hard. There's every chance we win enough games that our 1st next year is somewhere from 5 to 7. Good player but likely not a "generational talent" whatever that is. We should be working as hard as we can to maximise the value of pick 2 which is a windfall thanks to our horrendous injury run. If Luffy thinks that's one player, great, but I suspect it isn't.
 
 
I'd be more than happy with Phillips as our first whether it be for pick 2 or pick 5. If Will Phillips is three quarters of the player that Matt Rowell is, he'll be a big plus.
 
Sorry if this is a dumb question
Could GC back door us/ shaft us and on trade pick 2 to *?
I don’t want Dildoro anywhere near Logan?
Peptides could potentially give them 6,7 and / or 2021st, which will be better than GC first.


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RobZombie said:
Not specifically picking on you because I agree that a couple of picks either way rarely makes much difference, but this is on the whole such a dumb argument - cherry picking high-pick busts.

Of course there's no certainty, but there are probabilities. And the probability of getting a better player with a higher pick is higher. You might get a Fyfe at pick 20 but you almost certainly won't. You quite likely won't get a 100-gamer, let alone a star. At pick 3 you might not get Dusty but you're a very good chance at a 200 gamer who wins multiple B&Fs. Top 5 picks who end up complete busts without being ruined by injury and/or Melbourne are bloody rare, and they tend to end up very good players.
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Don't disagree that pointing out a couple of high pick busts is indeed a dumb argument, was more so responding to another comment.

I also agree that the probably of getting a better player at Pick 2 is higher than say Pick 8 or 10 - it just has to be, but the % of probability lift is where I have the problem. I believe (not based on any fact finding) that the probably improvement whilst positive is only say 5-10%. So why not accept that it is a marginal game and take two shots at the dart board.

If this was the NFL and the juniors had had up to 3yrs of exposed form in college it would be a much more exact science, though still not imprecise. The draft is like trying to pick a yearling at the Inglis sales - yes a $500,000 purchase has a better chance of winning the Cox Plate than a $300,000 horse, but there is a lot of development that goes into that horse when it leaves the sale yard that makes all the difference.
 
Uber Roo said:
Sorry if this is a dumb question
Could GC back door us/ shaft us and on trade pick 2 to *?
I don’t want Dildoro anywhere near Logan?
Peptides could potentially give them 6,7 and / or 2021st, which will be better than GC first.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
They only want one pick. They have no use for multiple picks this year.
 

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Ardent Roo said:
Don't disagree that pointing out a couple of high pick busts is indeed a dumb argument, was more so responding to another comment.

I also agree that the probably of getting a better player at Pick 2 is higher than say Pick 8 or 10 - it just has to be, but the % of probability lift is where I have the problem. I believe (not based on any fact finding) that the probably improvement whilst positive is only say 5-10%. So why not accept that it is a marginal game and take two shots at the dart board.

If this was the NFL and the juniors had had up to 3yrs of exposed form in college it would be a much more exact science, though still not imprecise. The draft is like trying to pick a yearling at the Inglis sales - yes a $500,000 purchase has a better chance of winning the Cox Plate than a $300,000 horse, but there is a lot of development that goes into that horse when it leaves the sale yard that makes all the difference.
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I think we're in furious agreement, and also that it's something reasonable people can disagree on. One superstar is obviously better and harder to replace than 5 B+ contributors, but is one superstar better than 2 A+ players (say, AA squad level)? IMO in our current situation multiple top 10's is better than pushing in all our chips on one potential superstar, as long as at least one of the top 10's is a good bet to be A+.
 
Ohhh Errol said:
Mixed emotions with the 2 for 5 pick swap. (actually i started this post with mixed emotions, by the time i finished, I'm actually adamant about what ther club should do.)

For the second year in a row we are reducing our access to top end talent.

If we do this pick swap, and avoid bottom 3 next year, LDU is our great white hope for that absolute gun of the comp player. No knocks on the kid, but i'd feel much more comfortable having two other top 3 draft picks competing for the honours.

In fact, the more i think on this, the more i object.

1) We can access picks like 27 and 37 anytime, just get them out of your dreamy draft point eyes for a second, they are irrelevant when talking about elite traits and top players of the comp, which is EXACTLY what this club needs. #fu**thelaterpicks

2) We failed miserably at recruiting the top players through FA - hence, we must now draft them. This deal 'could' be like having Martin at the club with contract in hand, then saying, "oh wait, we have club x on the line (*), they are willing to offer us player Y and Z instead". Player Y & Z are both handy players don't get me wrong, but the sum impact is no Martin, Bont, Fyfe, Danger, Kelly etc . It's ******* ludicrous to think you'd do that if you had Martin on the hook, so why do it now with the possibility of drafting the next Martin.


We've copped sh*t draft picks as far as i can remember, i really hope they know what their doing cos i couldnt give a flying fu** if a deal is won or lost on points value, or late 2nd, early 3rd draft picks. Our dees pick this year is in no man's land, there is nothing to say GC's 2021 isn't around the 10 to 12 mark either before or after FA compo's come in, yes, there are a few on offer next year too.

It's the calibre of player we end up with that matters. The list has lacked that gun, star, hyped, match winner, as stated in the best 22 thread, we have a pretty even spread, we need that top tier to go to the next level.


In fact, at nearly every opportunity we have lost draft position to gain a late 20's early 30's pick. This slide may gain us a pick around 8 to 14. That's a nice pick, but is it worth watching on as the career's of the players taken before 5 go into overdrive?

Has there ever been as much talk about a club trading OUT of the top 3? Why is this? They wouldn't be saying it if the top 3 was Ess, Coll, Rich. We are seen as a club that can be fiddled with it seems.


Deal 1 (loss based on 1st round draft position). 2019 pick 8 out, 2019 pick 26 and 2020 pick 13-14 in.

Deal 2: (straight out loss based on draft postition) 2020 pick (24 to 27) for 2019 pick 30

Deal 3 . (Win based in draft position). 2019 pick 30 for 2020 28ish



I get that we needed a massive list turn over, and was justyfying the dees pick swap throughout the season as it gave us one extra pick regardless, but as time goes on and that deal plays out, plus thinking out about the way this GC one can play out, I'm saying take pick 2 to the draft and bring in BEST available, not NEXT BEST, which is exactly what this club has been for so long.





(*) Yes, Club X, cos they would be ******* us
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Yeah stuff it, keep 2 get Hollands
 
Four uncontracted Geelong Cats players still on edge as AFL deadline looms to finalise list

Four uncontracted Geelong players remain in limbo as the Cats prepare to trim their list size to 38 before Friday’s deadline.
Josh Barnes, News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom


similars

The future of five Cats, led by Quinton Narkle, will become clearer this week as Geelong finalises is playing list.

All clubs need to finish their respective lists by Friday and Narkle, Ben Jarvis, Zach Guthrie, Jake Tarca and Stefan Okunbor remain in limbo.
Geelong is confident Okunbor will remain at the club next year as a Category B rookie, while the others will be hoping to be given a second chance.


No contracts or promises have been offered to Narkle, Jarvis, Guthrie or Tarca yet.

While offers have been made to Lachie Henderson, Darcy Fort and Sam Simpson, those Cats are yet to agree to terms with the club as Geelong focused on its trade period.

“We are still talking with all of those, no deals have been finalised yet,” Geelong list boss Stephen Wells said.

Youngster Brad Close has been told he will be back in the hoops next year but Geelong is still waiting on rulings over how many rookies it can have on the list before locking him away.

Wells left the door open to promoting a rookie such as Close instead of using the club’s two current picks – 51 and 96 – at next month’s draft.


With the additions of Isaac Smith, Shaun Higgins and Jeremy Cameron alongside those who have been offered new deals and counting Okunbor and Close, 38 players are set to be with the club next season.

While the AFL is yet to officially make a ruling, reports last week indicated that list sizes would be between 37 and 44 for clubs next year, down from the 46 Geelong had on its books in 2020.

“As soon as that is finalised exactly what is happening with Category Bs, (Okunbor) has been told he will be asked to come back and offered a contract but that is still to be decided,” Wells said.

Without bringing in a contingent of fresh talent, Geelong’s ageing list won’t be dramatically refreshed but Wells said he was confident a strong draft hand – which was boosted by the addition of three extra picks during trade period – has the club primed for an assault on the draft in 2021.
 

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Having seen the arguments I’m in the keep pick 2 camp the top 5 appears way better than the rest of the class, pick 2 is a huge opportunity at a elite prospect (as opposed to a very good prospect).

Too many people banking on a future pick being good. I expect GC to be very competitive next year.

Just back the recruiting staff and pick a game changer. Who was the last game changer we’ve had


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giantroo said:
Four uncontracted Geelong Cats players still on edge as AFL deadline looms to finalise list

Four uncontracted Geelong players remain in limbo as the Cats prepare to trim their list size to 38 before Friday’s deadline.
Josh Barnes, News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom


similars

The future of five Cats, led by Quinton Narkle, will become clearer this week as Geelong finalises is playing list.

All clubs need to finish their respective lists by Friday and Narkle, Ben Jarvis, Zach Guthrie, Jake Tarca and Stefan Okunbor remain in limbo.
Geelong is confident Okunbor will remain at the club next year as a Category B rookie, while the others will be hoping to be given a second chance.


No contracts or promises have been offered to Narkle, Jarvis, Guthrie or Tarca yet.

While offers have been made to Lachie Henderson, Darcy Fort and Sam Simpson, those Cats are yet to agree to terms with the club as Geelong focused on its trade period.

“We are still talking with all of those, no deals have been finalised yet,” Geelong list boss Stephen Wells said.

Youngster Brad Close has been told he will be back in the hoops next year but Geelong is still waiting on rulings over how many rookies it can have on the list before locking him away.

Wells left the door open to promoting a rookie such as Close instead of using the club’s two current picks – 51 and 96 – at next month’s draft.


With the additions of Isaac Smith, Shaun Higgins and Jeremy Cameron alongside those who have been offered new deals and counting Okunbor and Close, 38 players are set to be with the club next season.

While the AFL is yet to officially make a ruling, reports last week indicated that list sizes would be between 37 and 44 for clubs next year, down from the 46 Geelong had on its books in 2020.

“As soon as that is finalised exactly what is happening with Category Bs, (Okunbor) has been told he will be asked to come back and offered a contract but that is still to be decided,” Wells said.

Without bringing in a contingent of fresh talent, Geelong’s ageing list won’t be dramatically refreshed but Wells said he was confident a strong draft hand – which was boosted by the addition of three extra picks during trade period – has the club primed for an assault on the draft in 2021.
Click to expand...
So what happens if Sam Simpson doesn't re-sign? Is he a DFA or does he go to the draft? Either way I think North should make him an offer. Narkle is worth considering too.
 
speedy said:
So what happens if Sam Simpson doesn't re-sign? Is he a DFA or does he go to the draft? Either way I think North should make him an offer. Narkle is worth considering too.
Click to expand...

I'm sure they will lock down Simpson. Guthrie was emergency during the finals so would expect him to get an extension. Reckon Narkle could be on the outer.
 
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