List Mgmt. 2020 Young Talent time

[Joao]

McDonald's going to slip down to us then

Well I gave JL a clip for his pressers early on but Logan makes him sound like Christopher Hitchens.

 

[Ysaye]

So richest/most established club wins?

Whatever you want to label it, the draft as it is works pretty well to keep a rotation of contenders happening. It's not perfect that's for sure, but while I'd love to have a real parochial interest in getting best access to locals and all the interest and fanbase that could be built from that, a more open draft is also vital to expanding the game into areas that don't have extensive numbers of players (but then can get the interest to develop them).

But who really wants a "rotation of contenders"?

The issue with modern sport is that everyone needs to be a winner and there can be no people that lose. What we lose is any reasonably interesting narrative that might come with as before; eg. it demeans the meaning of us beating Hawthorn earlier in the year after our long losing history with them because "they are now in a rebuilding phase" whereas we are "further ahead in the cycle".

I think sport needs to be more than just a whole heap of variables that are nonetheless organized in a way as to get everyone to be on average historically the same. The richest clubs have tended to win more anyway, regardless of all the social engineering we do with the draft and everything else- just add a salary cap if it makes you feel better; at least that is more humane to the people that play the game.

 

[rgauci]

So richest/most established club wins?

Whatever you want to label it, the draft as it is works pretty well to keep a rotation of contenders happening. It's not perfect that's for sure, but while I'd love to have a real parochial interest in getting best access to locals and all the interest and fanbase that could be built from that, a more open draft is also vital to expanding the game into areas that don't have extensive numbers of players (but then can get the interest to develop them).

the rotation at the top worked best when priority picks were in place. The difference between pick 1 and pick 18 won’t ever bring a spoon team back to contention.

I’ve thought for some time, clubs that miss finals should get two cracks at the top 20

18th (spoon) picks 1 and 11
17th - 2 and 12
9th - 10 and 20
8th - pick 21
7th - pick 22

the issue, it doesn’t allow for future trading very well. Aside from that it would create far quicker rebuilds. They are so slow and prone to failing. Take Saints, paddy Mccartin has been a bust. They’ve not been able to rebuild until now.

 

[arsesmart]

But who really wants a "rotation of contenders"?

The issue with modern sport is that everyone needs to be a winner and there can be no people that lose. What we lose is any reasonably interesting narrative that might come with as before; eg. it demeans the meaning of us beating Hawthorn earlier in the year after our long losing history with them because "they are now in a rebuilding phase" whereas we are "further ahead in the cycle".

I think sport needs to be more than just a whole heap of variables that are nonetheless organized in a way as to get everyone to be on average historically the same. The richest clubs have tended to win more anyway, regardless of all the social engineering we do with the draft and everything else- just add a salary cap if it makes you feel better; at least that is more humane to the people that play the game.

Sport doesn't "need" anything per se. It's about saying what sort of game you want and how to steer it in that direction. The idea of the draft is just a counter to other pre-existing inequalities in the system. Established clubs in large markets have disproportionate advantages that have come about through mostly historical and geographical accidents. Better to take direction consciously where you can. There's compromises required in any organised sport (or society), but these compromises are made with advantages gained by those willing to make the compromise from the resulting cohesion. It's just up to the relevant parties to decide or not where those cohesive measures start and end. Much rather this system than the EPL, where the vagaries of history are as big a factor as anything else.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

On the podcast, Twomey seems to have heard some recruiters have Western top 20 and top 30.

Sounds like a top 40 bid is likely

 

[wayToGo_]

On the podcast, Twomey seems to have heard some recruiters have Western top 20 and top 30.

Sounds like a top 40 bid is likely

One of his Freo supporting family needs to feed him ridiculous amounts of food the night before the combine. It's quite important.

 

[arsesmart]

the rotation at the top worked best when priority picks were in place. The difference between pick 1 and pick 18 won’t ever bring a spoon team back to contention.

I’ve thought for some time, clubs that miss finals should get two cracks at the top 20

18th (spoon) picks 1 and 11
17th - 2 and 12
9th - 10 and 20
8th - pick 21
7th - pick 22

the issue, it doesn’t allow for future trading very well. Aside from that it would create far quicker rebuilds. They are so slow and prone to failing. Take Saints, paddy Mccartin has been a bust. They’ve not been able to rebuild until now.

Absolutely a priority pick can make the world of difference, Buddy & Roughead, Riewoldt & Koschitzke. While not a guarantee it's huge in increasing the odds being able to build a substantial period of being in contention.

 

[Dockeroo]

Absolutely a priority pick can make the world of difference, Buddy & Roughead, Riewoldt & Koschitzke. While not a guarantee it's huge in increasing the odds being able to build a substantial period of being in contention.

Didn’t they get rid of priority picks because of the much greater incentive for tanking?

 

[Taylor]

Didn’t they get rid of priority picks because of the much greater incentive for tanking?

The rules allowed for clubs to plan for priority picks, a year with 16.5 premiership points or less will give a priority pick before the start of the second round. Two seasons in a row of 16.5 premiership points or less give a priority pick before the start of the first round.

That lead to clubs ensuring they didn't win that fifth game in the second year that would disqualify them from pick #1 in the draft.

 

[rgauci]

The rules allowed for clubs to plan for priority picks, a year with 16.5 premiership points or less will give a priority pick before the start of the second round. Two seasons in a row of 16.5 premiership points or less give a priority pick before the start of the first round.

That lead to clubs ensuring they didn't win that fifth game in the second year that would disqualify them from pick #1 in the draft.

The issue was 5 games was arbitrary. There is no difference between 4 or 5 wins. Finals or no finals is better, no team will atop striving for finals.

Should be:
3 years without finals: start of 3rd round PP
4 years without finals: start of 2nd round PP
5+ Years without finals: mid first round PP

Clubs should not need to keep repeating rebuilds. Feel for Melbourne, Carlton even Saints who’ve spent a decade out of finals. We are not far off this category if we don’t improve quickly.

 

[Taylor]

The issue was 5 games was arbitrary. There is no difference between 4 or 5 wins. Finals or no finals is better, no team will atop striving for finals.

Should be:
3 years without finals: start of 3rd round PP
4 years without finals: start of 2nd round PP
5+ Years without finals: mid first round PP

Clubs should need to keep repeating rebuilds. Feel for Melbourne, Carlton even Saints who’ve spent a decade out of finals. We are not far off this category if we don’t improve quickly.

That's not a bad system. I'd like to figure out a way of rewarding a team digging their way out of a hole too, incentivising the competitive side rather than what is effectively rewarding poor to mediocre performance.

I couldn't think of a way of doing that which wouldn't be manipulated anyway. Imagine if the AFL came out at the end of this season and said that these clubs that have spent 4 to 5 years out of the finals will receive a $500,000 salary cap exemption and a second round draft pick if they make finals next season.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

On the podcast, Twomey seems to have heard some recruiters have Western top 20 and top 30.

Sounds like a top 40 bid is likely

TBH between Western and Walker I think we can wave goodbye to the Melbourne 2nd, not that that is a bad thing. Wouldn't mind swapping a 2021 2nd/3rd for one this year purely to avoid another points defecit.

 

[wayToGo_]

TBH between Western and Walker I think we can wave goodbye to the Melbourne 2nd, not that that is a bad thing. Wouldn't mind swapping a 2021 2nd/3rd for one this year purely to avoid another points defecit.

I assumed we were giving their 2nd back to them for Gus

Expecting us to trade it for other picks to make up points to match the bids. But things can change a lot duting trade period.

 

[Lach72]

The issue was 5 games was arbitrary. There is no difference between 4 or 5 wins. Finals or no finals is better, no team will atop striving for finals.

Should be:
3 years without finals: start of 3rd round PP
4 years without finals: start of 2nd round PP
5+ Years without finals: mid first round PP

Clubs should not need to keep repeating rebuilds. Feel for Melbourne, Carlton even Saints who’ve spent a decade out of finals. We are not far off this category if we don’t improve quickly.

Melbourne played finals in 2018.
Carlton have had more top end talent than they know what to do with...

Dow, SPS, Walsh...none of them are as good as Brayshaw or Cerra, Serong or Young IMO

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Melbourne played finals in 2018.
Carlton have had more top end talent than they know what to do with...

Dow, SPS, Walsh...none of them are as good as Brayshaw or Cerra, Serong or Young IMO

Walsh is as good or better than our lot, everyone else they’ve picked are underwhelming

 

[Joao]

Walsh is as good or better than our lot, everyone else they’ve picked are underwhelming

I agree for the moment but I am not sure it will stay that way.

 

[wild side]

I think Cerra might finally start to play in a consistent way.
I reckon Mundy is helping him here, obviously Mundy sees the huge potential in Cerra and is mentoring him.
Like yelling at him to go for goal with that banana last week.
Mundy>>>>Legend

 

[wayToGo_]

Melbourne played finals in 2018.
Carlton have had more top end talent than they know what to do with...

Dow, SPS, Walsh...none of them are as good as Brayshaw or Cerra, Serong or Young IMO

Fairly strong rumour Dow might be out the door this year. Reckon SPS should be looking for a similar move also. They just don't seem to get the best out of their youngsters.

 

[mightymouse75]

Carlton & Melbourne have been terrible for so long.
How many priority picks have they burned during this time ?

 

[Van_Dyke]

Walsh is as good or better than our lot, everyone else they’ve picked are underwhelming

there were 3 duos picked in the top 10 of the 2017 draft, Brayshaw/Cerra, Dow/O'Brien and Clark/Coffield, it's impressive at this point that Carlton had 2 picks in the top 10 and ended up with the 2 most underhelming of the lot

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

there were 3 duos picked in the top 10 of the 2017 draft, Brayshaw/Cerra, Dow/O'Brien and Clark/Coffield, it's impressive at this point that Carlton had 2 picks in the top 10 and ended up with the 2 most underhelming of the lot

It takes a special talent to pick the only two duds from what is developing as a pretty good top 10

 

[Deathly]

Yet every single Carlton player is still worth 2 first rounders apparently!

 

[Van_Dyke]

It takes a special talent to pick the only two duds from what is developing as a pretty good top 10

admittedly i just had a look at 11-20 which isn't quite so flash, but when your most promising player so far in a draft is a still raw ruck who's barely played in TDK, that's a hell of an effort when you have 2 top 10 picks

 

[Joao]

admittedly i just had a look at 11-20 which isn't quite so flash, but when your most promising player so far in a draft is a still raw ruck who's barely played in TDK, that's a hell of an effort when you have 2 top 10 picks

The obvious pick at 3 was Mitch.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Yet every single Carlton player is still worth 2 first rounders apparently!

There valuation of Dow is... optimistic