List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Mutineer]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey has dropped his July rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afl.com.au

Matt Roberts at 15.

Josh Goater at 22

 

[Mego Red]

Didn't we trade 4 for 6 and a future 1st? (Ended up pick 9 or something)

That's more in the ballpark.

Also I think we'll have pick 3

That's not a realistic offer to expect.

GWS did that because of Green, to get ahead of bids.

 

[Crow till I die]

I think the super draft makes a worse indication

Picks are worth more, including the ones coming in

4 for 9 & 17 gets you laughed at in regular draft. 6 for 11,23,37 is better when 23 & 37 are worth more

I’m hanging up the phone and cursing the mother of anyone who offers me 9 & 17 for pick 4

I should have clarified, it was a superdraft at tge top end..the top 7 were considered well above the next group at the time

As for the 4 for 9 & 17, its close to what we paid to get carlton's pick 4 in the stocker trade. I'd not be closing the book on a trade like that if it happened far enough out if we were comfortable we would be getting a comparable talent at 9 as we would at 4 if that 17 + another of our picks could be used to get back up the order around 12 or 13. I guess i would be open minded on things unless the player we want wont be there after 4

 

[Dewy006]

I think the super draft makes a worse indication

Picks are worth more, including the ones coming in

4 for 9 & 17 gets you laughed at in regular draft. 6 for 11,23,37 is better when 23 & 37 are worth more

I’m hanging up the phone and cursing the mother of anyone who offers me 9 & 17 for pick 4

9 and 17 gets you a Jones and McHenry. 4 gets you a Max King. Pretty sure I know which one I’d be taking.

 

[Mutineer]

9 and 17 gets you a Jones and McHenry. 4 gets you a Max King. Pretty sure I know which one I’d be taking.

Or 9 & 17 gets Aaron Naughton and Jack Higgins, 4 gets you Luke Davies-Unakie?

 

[Crow till I die]

9 and 17 gets you a Jones and McHenry. 4 gets you a Max King. Pretty sure I know which one I’d be taking.

Thats why it was such a disaster for us watching port get inside that top 7 with a worse selection of picks than we had.

If you take the next draft though it gets you a kosiah picket and mitch georgiades for lachie ash..puts a different perspective on things

 

[GrommoT]

I should have clarified, it was a superdraft at tge top end..the top 7 were considered well above the next group at the time

As for the 4 for 9 & 17, its close to what we paid to get carlton's pick 4 in the stocker trade. I'd not be closing the book on a trade like that if it happened far enough out if we were comfortable we would be getting a comparable talent at 9 as we would at 4 if that 17 + another of our picks could be used to get back up the order around 12 or 13. I guess i would be open minded on things unless the player we want wont be there after 4

I don't think you can use the Stocker trade to compare - that trade involved future picks where there is always a bit of a gamble for the clubs involved. I doubt the bLoos would have traded pick 4 (heck, it could have been pick 1!) for 9 and 19 from the same draft period.

Pick 4 for 9 & 17 is at the edge of what could happen, I think, but would need clubs to be in the right situations for it to happen.

 

[Dockzy]

Hopefully GWS don’t make the 8, lose Kelly to free agency and we organise a deal with them for two of their firsts that would be the best deal we could snag I reckon if they were willing to come to the party

 

[latinoheat]

Erasmus write up sounds like a likely prospect. December birthday as well so lots of upside


Midfielder/forward
188cm/80kg
2/12/03
Subiaco/Western Australia
The tall midfielder has steadily been rising up draft boards this season and now shapes as a top-10 pick contender. Erasmus returned from a slight injury niggle on the weekend to have a strong performance in Western Australia's under-19s trial, once again highlighting his ball-getting ability. He has averaged 28 disposals at colts level for Subiaco this season after starring in their Grand Final win last year with four goals in the premiership decider. Something of a surprise packet in 2020, Erasmus has taken things up a notch in 2021.

 

[Bearded Clam]

I wouldn't be confident in that based on some other clubs boards here on BF.

its cal... of course i’m not confident reading Roberts at 15.. Cal barely ever gets it right.. especially this far out.. he normally gets some good intel in the day or two before the draft.. rest of the time he’s unreliable.

the fact Roberts is out injured for a while though does mean he could slide.. just not a t”to pick 15” type slide..

 

[TryAnHit]

9 and 17 gets you a Jones and McHenry. 4 gets you a Max King. Pretty sure I know which one I’d be taking.

9 and 17 gets you butters and Dursama

 

[Crows I Am]

I know it's a long way out and rankings will likely change considerably between now and draft night. If it is looking as though Roberts is around the 15 mark like in Cal's phantom, I'd hope we keep our pick 3-4 where it is, and then find a way to move into that 10-15 range to grab Roberts. Gives us the best available mid at our first pick and then the 2nd best SA mid with Roberts with our 2nd.

 

[Gtowncrow]

I know it's a long way out and rankings will likely change considerably between now and draft night. If it is looking as though Roberts is around the 15 mark like in Cal's phantom, I'd hope we keep our pick 3-4 where it is, and then find a way to move into that 10-15 range to grab Roberts. Gives us the best available mid at our first pick and then the 2nd best SA mid with Roberts with our 2nd.

This is a good plan. Package up our seconds to move into the first round. Might be possible...

 

[Sanders]

I should have clarified, it was a superdraft at tge top end..the top 7 were considered well above the next group at the time

As for the 4 for 9 & 17, its close to what we paid to get carlton's pick 4 in the stocker trade. I'd not be closing the book on a trade like that if it happened far enough out if we were comfortable we would be getting a comparable talent at 9 as we would at 4 if that 17 + another of our picks could be used to get back up the order around 12 or 13. I guess i would be open minded on things unless the player we want wont be there after 4

I’d hang up and then fire anyone who thought that was a good deal

It’s ****ing horrendous

 

[Sanders]

Or 9 & 17 gets Aaron Naughton and Jack Higgins, 4 gets you Luke Davies-Unakie?

Or in other words Naughton.

A lucky pick at 9 doesn’t make it worth more

 

[Sanders]

9 and 17 gets you butters and Dursama

I’m still taking Max King all day long.

 

[Sanders]

That's not a realistic offer to expect.

GWS did that because of Green, to get ahead of bids.

GWS did that because they just played off in a grand final.

 

[Go the Guts]

Question - given that Collingwood only has 1600 odd draft points, and their 1st pick has gone to GWS, how the hell will they be able to put together any kind of a bid to get Daicos, who Cal Twomey has listed at pick 1?
They would be signing away even more future first and second round draft picks to get 1 player?

 

[GrommoT]

Question - given that Collingwood only has 1600 odd draft points, and their 1st pick has gone to GWS, how the hell will they be able to put together any kind of a bid to get Daicos, who Cal Twomey has listed at pick 1?
They would be signing away even more future first and second round draft picks to get 1 player?

They need 2500 points to match a pick 1 bid on Daicos and there's an old Emma Quayle article which indicated clubs can carry forward around 1700 points into the next year as a deficit, so if they do nothing else that just wipes out their r1 pick next year.

They can still draft players this year at whatever their fifth round pick ends up (and onwards) to fill their boots.

 

[cmndstab]

9 & 17 doesn’t get you 4

I mean, it's in the ballpark. Not saying I would do it, but we've seen some similar trades.

In 2019, St Kilda traded out picks 6 and 58, for picks 12 and 18 from GWS.
In 2018, Fremantle traded out pick 6 and a future third, for picks 11, 23, 30, and 49 from Port.
In 2013, West Coast traded out picks 6 and 44, for picks 11, 31 and 49 from Collingwood.

Is there that big a difference between pick 6 and pick 4? Picks 9+17 is better compensation than 12+18, or 11+31, and both required sweeteners to move pick 6. Hard to judge the Freo trade, what is the value of a handful of second and third round picks?

There is some merit to the argument that we are not just lacking one or two elite talents, but A-grade talent across the board, and would benefit from having multiple picks in the first round.

 

[GreyCrow]

There is indeed a lot of water ,chilli peppers and rowboats to go under the bridge - and championships - if they go ahead - will clarify positioning of players - just because Cal Twomey says Roberts will go 15 doesnt mean he will

I would use our picks in the 20s to move closer to 17 etc - but I would hold onto 3/4 for life

 

[Cap]

So even if Collingwood come last, they may still get a pick 1 player and GWS essentially get pick 2?

Midly infuriating

 

[Deaneus!]

Everyone all year: let’s use our superhigh pick to get an elite talent

*we get closer to the draft…*

DOWNGRADE AND SPLIT, DOWNGRADE AND SPLIT!!!

Pathetic!

 

[NavyRedGold]

Or in other words Naughton.

A lucky pick at 9 doesn’t make it worth more

Can share the complete analysis at some point, but was looking at every draft between 2000-2015 (where we actually know what happens to these players) and based on some blunt metrics (games played, All Australians) Pick 13 has been just as successful as Pick 4.

Pick 13: 16 selections between 2000-2015, 6 All Australians (Dal Santo, Hurn, J. Riewoldt, Talia, Adams, Cripps), 5 250 gamers, only 1 played <= 50 games (Seb Tape, 2020)

Pick 4: 16 selections between 2000-2015, 4 All Australians (Kennedy, Gaff, Bontempelli, Oliver), 1 250 gamer (Kennedy, but of course Bont/Oliver likely to get there), 5 played <= 50 games (Tim Walsh 2002, Anthony Morabito 2009, Jimmy Toumpas 2012, Jarrod Pickett 2014)

Courtesy to DraftGuru for the numbers

Of course this is an overly simplistic way of looking at probability but just goes to show there's a lot of uncertainty in where AFL players are rated in their draft year, and splitting picks to have more shots at getting it right isn't necessarily a terrible idea

 

[Crow till I die]

Thats why it was such a disaster for us watching port get inside that top 7 with a worse selection of picks than we had.

If you take the next draft though it gets you a kosiah picket and mitch georgiades for lachie ash..puts a different perspective on things

I’d hang up and then fire anyone who thought that was a good deal

It’s ******* horrendous

Fair enough