Analysis 2021 draft thread

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Nuggo

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How hard would it be to move out of the first round next year, secure Ashcroft, then move back into the first round. I am guessing our 2023 first round would need to be involved?
 

blueiris

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And if we have any highly rated academy draftees that year
Collingwood showed this year you can find points by trading futures I heard Fletcher rated at that 25 to 30 range I think he’s the only Academy player next season
 

jackess

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Collingwood showed this year you can find points by trading futures I heard Fletcher rated at that 25 to 30 range I think he’s the only Academy player next season
I was referring to 2023. No point trading a first rounder into that year if it gets used matching a bid
 

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blueiris

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I was referring to 2023. No point trading a first rounder into that year if it gets used matching a bid
You can always on trade futures as long as you pick up players in that years draft much like Melbourne have been doing the last 3 years
 

cotter101

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Twomey talks about Sinn in this clip, from the 2:48 mark, if you want to skip ahead.
Goater is my 1A preferred kid at our first pick, Sinn is my 1B.

Agree with that Briztoon. That’s been my preferred two for a while now.

Both seem like ‘Lions’ picks too. Hope we get one of them.
 

Quigley

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Collingwood showed this year you can find points by trading futures I heard Fletcher rated at that 25 to 30 range I think he’s the only Academy player next season
I think there are a few next year who show some potential to be draftable. Fletcher and McMillan certainly two at the moment who I expect to be drafted but there are 4 or 5 others who with development could be worth picking.
 

dlanod

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It's going to be more likely that our first round pick next year will be used to trade back and get more points in that year, if we like the look of both Ashcroft and Fletcher. As it is, if Ashcroft is bid on in the top few picks we'd have to go into deficit just for him even if we keep that first round pick.
 

JasRulz63

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It's going to be more likely that our first round pick next year will be used to trade back and get more points in that year, if we like the look of both Ashcroft and Fletcher. As it is, if Ashcroft is bid on in the top few picks we'd have to go into deficit just for him even if we keep that first round pick.
I agree. We saw the value of the Dogs keeping their first round pick this year for gathering points, when they added an extra ~500 points for trading down pick 17 (without giving away any future picks). Next year we have GC already sitting on three seconds, two thirds and a fourth round picks who may look to move up the order.

What will be handy is if some of those academy players that Quigley mentioned end up being draftable talents because generally the downside of bundling up picks to match a bid is that you end up with list spots to fill with late picks. It would be useful to have some draftable academy players to fill these spots given the points discount.
 

briztoon

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Can't see us taking 4 in the draft, substitute Ned Long with Sam Banks and I like it. Pick 6 looks pretty high for Josh Goater, hopefully eDPS is way off on that one. Mitch Knevitt seems to be gathering some hype, do you like him as a possible for us? Also any idea why Sam Banks is falling like a stone in a lot of peoples eyes?
Banks isn’t as fast as the Sandringham boys, or the quality of defender Wilmot is. He hasn’t been played through the midfield, so people question his versatility, and he takes the kick ins for TAS, so there’s the view his stats are padded.

I believe he’s a safe pick, high character kid, like Prior.

Would fit in with the “identity” of our team.
 

briztoon

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I can't remember where I heard it but I think teams weren't expected Dev to be at their pick in the late first round so they hadn't really set their eyes/hopes on him. After having a night to think it over they realised this kid had slipped way too far and probably should've been taken by a few teams at the end of the first night. Basically I think the extra time between picks isn't just to work out trades but also for teams to re-evaluate their draft boards to who's still available.
Twomey has mentioned it multiple times.
 

Quigley

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Banks isn’t as fast as the Sandringham boys, or the quality of defender Wilmot is. He hasn’t been played through the midfield, so people question his versatility, and he takes the kick ins for TAS, so there’s the view his stats are padded.

I believe he’s a safe pick, high character kid, like Prior.

Would fit in with the “identity” of our team.
I think you are underselling him defensively and he has played up the ground although not really this year. I think he will be a hard working leader with good skills and running ability. He suffers a bit from not having any elite traits but I reckon he would be an excellent pick if we went that way. From what I have heard I also think he is one of those guys who is going to keep working and improving.
 

M Malice

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Danny Daly saying today that at pick 14 and 18 you would usually go for the best player available at those picks whether they be inside or outside types... although ideally it would be good to get some outside run.
 

briztoon

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It's going to be more likely that our first round pick next year will be used to trade back and get more points in that year, if we like the look of both Ashcroft and Fletcher. As it is, if Ashcroft is bid on in the top few picks we'd have to go into deficit just for him even if we keep that first round pick.
Ok, see if I can explain this quickly.

Say we take 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks in to next year’s draft, and it’s just enough points to cover an Ashcroft bid at pick 3.

That’s all the picks we take to the draft.

There’s already talk lists are unlikely to be extended back to what they were pre covid. So there’s likely to be ~60 picks at the draft again.

We match the Ashcroft bid at 3, our highest pick moves up to pick 3, and our other 3 picks slide to the back of the draft at picks 58, 59 & 60.

So those 3 late picks still have points attached to them, so our three new picks are now worth ~480 points. Which is enough points to match a bid at pick 28.

We match a bid on Fletcher. The highest pick moves up to where the bid was made, and the last two picks move back to 59 and 60.

And we now have ~300 points again to match the next Academy kid bid.

This has never happened before, but I’m sure this is how it will work.

And then the AFL will probably change the rules to stop such a scenario happening again.
 

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bungalow_bill

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eDPS's 2022 top 20


Ashcroft at 2
 

JasRulz63

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Ok, see if I can explain this quickly.

Say we take 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks in to next year’s draft, and it’s just enough points to cover an Ashcroft bid at pick 3.

That’s all the picks we take to the draft.

There’s already talk lists are unlikely to be extended back to what they were pre covid. So there’s likely to be ~60 picks at the draft again.

We match the Ashcroft bid at 3, our highest pick moves up to pick 3, and our other 3 picks slide to the back of the draft at picks 58, 59 & 60.

So those 3 late picks still have points attached to them, so our three new picks are now worth ~480 points. Which is enough points to match a bid at pick 28.

We match a bid on Fletcher. The highest pick moves up to where the bid was made, and the last two picks move back to 59 and 60.

And we now have ~300 points again to match the next Academy kid bid.

This has never happened before, but I’m sure this is how it will work.

And then the AFL will probably change the rules to stop such a scenario happening again.
I remember on the FOX footage last year when bids were matched, the picks at the end of the draft given back to teams were listed in the 100s+ (even though there wasn't that number of draft picks). I wonder if once a pick has been used to match, it no longer carries a point value and only becomes "active" when you get to the end of the draft.
 

dlanod

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Ok, see if I can explain this quickly.

Say we take 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks in to next year’s draft, and it’s just enough points to cover an Ashcroft bid at pick 3.

That’s all the picks we take to the draft.

There’s already talk lists are unlikely to be extended back to what they were pre covid. So there’s likely to be ~60 picks at the draft again.

We match the Ashcroft bid at 3, our highest pick moves up to pick 3, and our other 3 picks slide to the back of the draft at picks 58, 59 & 60.

So those 3 late picks still have points attached to them, so our three new picks are now worth ~480 points. Which is enough points to match a bid at pick 28.

We match a bid on Fletcher. The highest pick moves up to where the bid was made, and the last two picks move back to 59 and 60.

And we now have ~300 points again to match the next Academy kid bid.

This has never happened before, but I’m sure this is how it will work.

And then the AFL will probably change the rules to stop such a scenario happening again.
That's possible and has happened in previous drafts... except at the moment we have a first round pick and a second round pick and no third round picks.
 

dlanod

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I remember on the FOX footage last year when bids were matched, the picks at the end of the draft given back to teams were listed in the 100s+ (even though there wasn't that number of draft picks). I wonder if once a pick has been used to match, it no longer carries a point value and only becomes "active" when you get to the end of the draft.
Last year was exceptional because of the suspension of the rule limiting teams to only as many picks as they have list spots so it really could've been in the 100s because they allocated out seven rounds or so, and only became valuable once teams passed on their interim picks. If we could dig up what happened in 2019 and earlier, it would be a better indication.
 

JasRulz63

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Last year was exceptional because of the suspension of the rule limiting teams to only as many picks as they have list spots so it really could've been in the 100s because they allocated out seven rounds or so, and only became valuable once teams passed on their interim picks. If we could dig up what happened in 2019 and earlier, it would be a better indication.
This was the graphic from when Freo matched the bid on Liam Henry and went into deficit.

Screenshot_20211014-163432_Kayo Sports.jpg



Looks like they slid all the way to the back of all available picks allocated (based on assuming every club fills all their available list spots and no passes). Similarly, they only move up the order once teams start passing on picks.

Interestingly Freo traded into the fifth last pick of the draft to take Frederick using their future fifth rounder.
 

M Malice

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Danny Daly on The Roar Deal > We will be trying to move pick 41 up the order over the next few weeks.... I wasn't aware clubs can still trade picks up until draft night?
 

mattsmob

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Also sounded pretty positive regarding Ashcroft and Fletcher doing some work with the club next season.
 

JasRulz63

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Danny Daly on The Roar Deal > We will be trying to move pick 41 up the order over the next few weeks.... I wasn't aware clubs can still trade picks up until draft night?
There's a second trade period just for draft picks that this year extends from Monday 18 October to Monday 15 November.

For example, we did this trade during that period last year:

 

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