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List Mgmt. 2022 List Management and Trading Thread - Part 2
- Thread starter WeeBlake
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There will be a race to bottom next year, Hawks will want the number 1 pick most though.
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It really doesn't. You need to take a look at our list demographics - do that, and you'll very quickly appreciate why this line of thinking is overly simplistic - and just flat out wrong.
Are there any delisted gems out there we might look at?
Looks like we are just taking MM in the draft.... So likely just him and Rankine as new additions in this offseasonb
I think if Phillipou is available at say pick 8 and beyond, we will be willing to give up next years first to get him. Doubt there would be any takers though.
I think there might be a few roughies we look at in the late first to early second realm, in which case we offer one of the 2nd rounders we have next year. Not sure if we will be successful. If we get Phillipou tho, we won't do anything here.
Most boring case is we miss both and we get MM. There might be a late roughie we go for but I doubt it.
In which case we'll likely end up with MM and a rookie.
I don't mind, we already have Taylor, Newchurch, Borlase and Nank to debut next year anyway. Possibly Turner as well if we re-list him. That's enough.
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Maybe we even planned for more players to be out of contract in a stronger draft year?
Could the club be thinking and planning ahead more than BigFooty posters?
Crazy thoughts perhaps. But other clubs appear to be looking towards next year's draft more than this one. And maybe the club identified what might be available around 5 as being a flight risk. Hence happy to trade it for Rankine.
Next year is a massive one for the club as we will need to make (possibly) some tough calls on players coming out of contract whilst we still have access to the (relative) top end of the draft.
This is what absolutely sh1ts me about clubs like the Cats getting gifted pick 7 and other trades because they just don't have currency to get them done (hey for Bruhn that's all we have left). That, and the Tigers picking up Hopper and Taranto for unders because that's all they have in picks....
Of course the AFL media say that this such astute trading and brilliant by these clubs. "That's why they are great, they do this so well" LOL. They have a massive advantage.
This is the AFL conundrum. It's all a farce. Rankine was only worth pick 5 because we had pick 5. If we were Richmond or Gelong we'd just give the Suns whatever first rounder we have. The clubs which finish lower get better draft picks (the equalisation theory), but the top clubs get stronger because they always get players to nominate them and the trade is done for "unders".
Anyone who believes in AFL equalisation I have a bridge to sell you.
Tas
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TheBrownDog
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If that is the first pick of the second round the AFL will likely gift us Harley Reid, as much as I like the sound of getting Reid for free next year, I don't think we will end up last next year. I think Hawks, Essendon and Eagles will be below us next year, so the pick should be around the same ballpark as this year.
We only have room for 4 players, it will be 2, 3, 23 and we have 40 and 43 to match any bids on Harvey. We weren't going to use 59, it was probably more a goodwill gesture to give it to the Crows if it might be of some use to you.
I think next year's pool should be stronger through the first round, a lot of clubs wanted to get out of the late first round range this year, I also think that assessment has a Vic bias, a lot of SA and WA players who were considered good prospects got pushed back so are in this zone and interstate options are a bit of a flight risk. For similar reasons, Eagles were happy to move from 2 back into the thick of the WA prospects.
My guess is we have our eyes set on one of Cowan or Gruzewski and think they are much better prospects than where the AFL currently rates them and worth the risk of using a future pick on them. Obviously, will need hindsight to determine if it was a good call or not.
Mr MysteryGuest
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No they weren’t. There are other players that would be better examples
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Most clubs would swap our 23/1 for pick 8 next year.
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Adelaide would be batshit insane to do that deal.
Are you a New Zulander bro? Give us some good pucks man
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If the club genuinely wanted Phillipou I think they would have traded next year's first rounder for Rankine.
I wouldn't be surprised if we have our eye on someone next year and did the pick swap to give us some trade collateral in case we need to trade up next year.
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TheBrownDog
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Phillipou looks like a really good prospect, but he might be someone you target after his first contract. It might be cheaper to target him end of 2024 than to blow a more valuable pick in a stronger draft pool.
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so you're saying it's tacticalThats why hopefully if the Suns get him, we can get him to SA in 2024.
1. reid doesn't trust hamish with high draft picks - tick
2. let someone else take the risk and develop these guys - trade for them if proven to be any good
what we are seeing is AFC clearly
1. want to play the guys we've already drafted
2. dont rate this pool
3. have other trade targets next year when we can clear a bunch of list spots
4. not as much cap space next year as we thought or more spuds would have been delisted.
we will go after hollands long before phillipou. i have never ever heard one other player say before draft they wanted to be picked by afc. hollands did. we are clearly targeting people who love the club he has got to be the next acquisition target
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TheBrownDog
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Yeah, possibly. They still have an amazing amount of talent, they just have a fair few players that play critical roles that have had a lot of injury issues of late, hard to predict how they will go.
On pick value, I agree pick 8 is about where someone would consider swapping since I doubt we'd be higher than about pick 7 next year.
Problem is that's not the only consideration. Most of the teams with the picks in the range also need to bring in young talent sooner rather than later and are unlikely to go a year without picking. For the later ones, it also relies on Phillipou, or some other good target, still being on the board. The later it gets the worse value it is for us tho and in some cases we would probably need another pick coming back for our F1 which we will be unlikely to get. Lets go thru it pick by pick from 5 (for the lols) to 15.
GC 5 - right in the midst of a heap of flight risky victorian mid territory. Prolly one of the more likely ones to be willing to trade out but if I understand correctly we can't trade our pick back, not even live, even though by then every club will have had 2 chances to get that pick lol
Haw 6 - finished down the bottom, wont go without a pick this year, lots of good options for them
Geel 7 - a top team that could prolly go without a top pick but given what they did to get it doubt they give it up, next pick is 58!
WC 8 - finished down the bottom, traded for these particular picks, doubt they let this one go, going for a good WA talent
St Kilda 9 - finished down bottom, down year, need to give fans hope, lots of good vic picks in this range, no way they give it up
Carlton 10 - finished up the top, only one other good pick, this one is about a quarter of a chance
WB 11 - haven't had a pick at the top for a while, thanks to FS's and NGA's. One more good pick. Prolly don't want to give up either.
WC 12 - this is a half a chance, they've already had a pick, in this range our pick next year looks like a good upgrade, they are shrewd level headed traders normally.
Melb - 13 - haven't drafted much at the top end, prolly need to spend this pick, good vics, next pick is 37 if they give it up
Swans 14 - Might be a chance considering the value upgrade and that they have a pick 3 spots after. Finished up the top.
GWS 15 - Already had a pick, have another pick not long after, big value upgrade, a reasonable chance at this one.
GWS aren’t finishing last. And the gap between hawks and Roos isn’t tiny, likely that order won’t change either.
Jetafl
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I'm surprised some of our list management team haven't been shown the door and it starts at the top. Jason Cripps is better list boss than Justin. Based on what they have brought to the table.
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West Coast will give it a real crack
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Reckon Bulldogs at pick~11ish likely to get Phillipou as a longer term replacement for Bont/Dunkley as that tallish mid.
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Or trade in
It is pretty frustrating that we are only looking like bringing in 2 new players this off season. But if Rankie and Michalanney end up becoming important parts of our next premiership contending team then it should still be considered a pass in my opinion.
A premiership side is built over a 10 year period, you need to add 2-3 players each year that will end up in that side.
We have had a good couple of years bringing guys in that will hopefully end up in that side
2021 - Dawson, Rachelle, Soligo and potentially Taylor and Nankervis
2020 - Thilthorpe, Berry with potentials Pedlar and Cook
2019 - Schoenberg, Worrell and Keays
Before that it is not great reading, between 2013-2018 the only ones we picked up that will likely be part of that side are Fog, Doedee and maybe ROB. The jury is still out on everyone else.
Rankine and Michalanney this year, then another 3 next year and that would be potentially 17 added to our side in 5 years that could be part of that side that can push for a flag.
A premiership side is built over a 10 year period, you need to add 2-3 players each year that will end up in that side.
We have had a good couple of years bringing guys in that will hopefully end up in that side
2021 - Dawson, Rachelle, Soligo and potentially Taylor and Nankervis
2020 - Thilthorpe, Berry with potentials Pedlar and Cook
2019 - Schoenberg, Worrell and Keays
Before that it is not great reading, between 2013-2018 the only ones we picked up that will likely be part of that side are Fog, Doedee and maybe ROB. The jury is still out on everyone else.
Rankine and Michalanney this year, then another 3 next year and that would be potentially 17 added to our side in 5 years that could be part of that side that can push for a flag.
You don’t have to just give up that pick straight up. Given 5 was guaranteed to get him in the ND, our preference should have been to take him that way. To change our minds, Suns would need to come to us with an offer. We refused to entertain 5 forming any part of the deal last year for Dawson, regardless of what was sent back to us. We even put it and our 2 firsts for this year on the table for JHF.
Just because it’s there, doesn’t mean it’s what you pay. You don’t need to look any further than your own club’s previous trade period to realise that.
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Clubs would bite our arm off to get our F1 for pick 8+.
Zero chance we do that.
The two 2nds, maybe.
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