Prediction 2022 Phantom Drafts

[Obeanie1]

A lot of maybe the Afl did this, maybe that, could have, should have. Not a single sentence about him taking responsibility for his own actions. One strike policy for inflicting violence on a woman. What, are you suggesting there should be two strike, three strike policy. The man has shown to be a terrible human, who it appears does not have ability to learn or to adjust his behavior. It is not the Swan's responsibility to make him an agreeable human. That was primarily parental responsibility and once of age it is his own responsibility.

And as I posted. Times have changed.

 

[GWS Goose]

12 and 18 for 6, 6 and a future 1st for 4. Whether it’s getting ahead of a Tom Green bid or getting ahead of another club taking the player you want, moving up into the top 5 won’t be cheap. Clubs won’t let that pick go for anything except a massive overpay.

The Giants trade was different.
Pick 6 was likely to be sucked up the trade. So we weren't really giving as much up.
Very different scenarios.
Same with the year we traded up for Taranto, people always bring that as a precedent. That was all about the points for Setterfield, Perryman and Cumming, not jumping a spot from 3 to 2.

 

[Mojorisin]

Who hates Cowan? I’d love him at North, just can’t see him slipping that far. Merely pointing out he was in the phantom draft twice.

Sorry been lots of detractors for him manly about go home factor.

Tassie entering a team in to the comp in 2025.

Even with a tassie team coming a good team should back themselves in to have him in trenched in the culture in the mean time or at worst develop him well enough that he commands a first round pick in return.

 

[briztoon]

Sorry been lots of detractors for him manly about go home factor.

Even with a tassie team coming a good team should back themselves in to have him in trenched in the culture in the mean time or at worst develop him well enough that he commands a first round pick in return.

I don’t disagree with you.

He’ll get drafted, it’s just a matter of when.

But there is a cost involved in drafting and developing a player, that a compensation pick in the future, doesn’t really cover.

 

[briztoon]

Sorry been lots of detractors for him manly about go home factor.

Even with a tassie team coming a good team should back themselves in to have him in trenched in the culture in the mean time or at worst develop him well enough that he commands a first round pick in return.

Have just been reading that Cowan has been quite public in his desire to play for the new Tassie team if it gets up and running.

 

[HairyPlum84]

My phantom top 30
1. Cadman (GWS)
2. Ashcroft (Lions- F/S)
3. Sheezel (North)
4. Wardlaw (North)
5. Humphrey (Ess)
6. Tsatas (Suns)
7. Clark(Hawks)
8. Ginbey (Cats)
9. Busslinger (Eagles)
10. Mackenzie (Saints)
11. Phillipou (Blues)
12. Hollands (Dogs)
13. Hewett (Eagles)
14. Jefferson (Demons)
15. Hustwaite (Swans)
16. Hayes (GWS)
17. Davey Jnr (Ess F/S)
18. Fletcher (Bris F/S)
19. Allan (Pies)
20. Hotton (swans)
21. Weddle (GWS)
22. Burgiel (GWS)
23. Cowan (Eagles)
24. George (Dogs)
25. Clarke (North)
26. Konstanty (Hawks)
27. Keeler (Pies)
28. Barnett (Eagles)
29. Gruzewski (Pies)
30. Szybowski (Saints)

 

[Hazardinho]

If you're keen on Tsatas, which from what I understand you are, you'll have to pay up. It's that simple.

Tsatas ain’t even that spectacular if we’re being honest. You make it sound like you’re trading for the next Chris Judd.
Basically, St Kilda trade a top ten pick and a future first pick in a stronger draft, for a player that’s a one way player, just accumulates and average at best at kicking. What club that’s not trying to self-sabotage their club, would even entertain this deal. This proposed trade, would be up there with Dodoro’s ridiculous trade demands.

 

[Hazardinho]

I'd imagine if Essendon wanted our future first 22 would have to be involved in the deal, otherwise it would just be a stupid decision by our club.

Even still that’s day light robbery.

 

[eth-dog]

Tsatas ain’t even that spectacular if we’re being honest. You make it sound like you’re trading for the next Chris Judd.
Basically, St Kilda trade a top ten pick and a future first pick in a stronger draft, for a player that’s a one way player, just accumulates and average at best at kicking. What club that’s not trying to self-sabotage their club, would even entertain this deal. This proposed trade, would be up there with Dodoro’s ridiculous trade demands.

You're delusional. Tsatas is a clear cut top 5 pick. The fact you think he's an average kick says it all, he's one of the best in the draft. If we keep the pick I'm still hoping we take him.

As far as "ridiculous trade demands" go, there's literally precedence for stuff like this. I've shared it. Top 5 picks cost multiple firsts, period.

He's a genuine positional need for us, I reckon you'd need to trade up to get a pick in because we really should bid.

I suspect we do, but I'd be really annoyed if the above played out

 

[GWS Goose]

My phantom top 30
1. Cadman (GWS)
2. Ashcroft (Lions- F/S)
3. Sheezel (North)
4. Wardlaw (North)
5. Humphrey (Ess)
6. Tsatas (Suns)
7. Clark(Hawks)
8. Ginbey (Cats)
9. Busslinger (Eagles)
10. Mackenzie (Saints)
11. Phillipou (Blues)
12. Hollands (Dogs)
13. Hewett (Eagles)
14. Jefferson (Demons)
15. Hustwaite (Swans)
16. Hayes (GWS)
17. Davey Jnr (Ess F/S)
18. Fletcher (Bris F/S)
19. Allan (Pies)
20. Hotton (swans)
21. Weddle (GWS)
22. Burgiel (GWS)
23. Cowan (Eagles)
24. George (Dogs)
25. Clarke (North)
26. Konstanty (Hawks)
27. Keeler (Pies)
28. Barnett (Eagles)
29. Gruzewski (Pies)
30. Szybowski (Saints)

We wont be going with that many defensive players.

 

[Hazardinho]

You're delusional. Tsatas is a clear cut top 5 pick. The fact you think he's an average kick says it all, he's one of the best in the draft. If we keep the pick I'm still hoping we take him.

As far as "ridiculous trade demands" go, there's literally precedence for stuff like this. I've shared it. Top 5 picks cost multiple firsts, period.

I suspect we do, but I'd be really annoyed if the above played out

One of the best qualities a person can ever have is self-awareness. The draft trades you make mention in the past years have no relevance in why St Kilda has to give up a future first pick in a “stronger draft” which could hypothetically be another top ten pick, plus another top 10 pick already for our first selection of pick 5. This is massive overs when you actually use rational and contextualise this years draft alone.
You have made the point that St Kilda want Tsatas really badly, when I have not seen any credible source confirm this. They may have interest in him, but to conclusively state they want him, even you going on to state that if St Kilda traded with North Melbourne’s picks, they’d still stake Tsatas. I’ve seen St Kilda fans say they would prefer Wardlaw if they did that trade over Tsatas, and North Melbourne fans say they would take that trade if the Saints offered it.
By calling someone ‘delusional’, because they disagree with your point? Makes no sense, when the consensus view amongst a lot of big footy users across all clubs have made mention Tsatas would be overlooked by their club due to his weaknesses, and prefer Phillipou as a prospect.
Also I’m not the only person in this thread to disagree with you on that trade hypothetical, pick 5 is this years draft, whereby if Sheezel, Ashcroft, Cadman and Wardlaw are unattainable, doesn’t hold the value of overpaying for.

 

[eth-dog]

One of the best qualities a person can ever have is self-awareness. The draft trades you make mention in the past years have no relevance in why St Kilda has to give up a future first pick in a “stronger draft” which could hypothetically be another top ten pick, plus another top 10 pick already for our first selection of pick 5. This is massive overs when you actually use rational and contextualise this years draft alone.
You have made the point that St Kilda want Tsatas really badly, when I have not seen any credible source confirm this. They may have interest in him, but to conclusively state they want him, even you going on to state that if St Kilda traded with North Melbourne’s picks, they’d still stake Tsatas. I’ve seen St Kilda fans say they would prefer Wardlaw if they did that trade over Tsatas, and North Melbourne fans say they would take that trade if the Saints offered it.
By calling someone ‘delusional’, because they disagree with your point? Makes no sense, when the consensus view amongst a lot of big footy users across all clubs have made mention Tsatas would be overlooked by their club due to his weaknesses, and prefer Phillipou as a prospect.
Also I’m not the only person in this thread to disagree with you on that trade hypothetical, pick 5 is this years draft, whereby if Sheezel, Ashcroft, Cadman and Wardlaw are unattainable, doesn’t hold the value of overpaying for.

People have said that the cost/benefit might not be worth it. That's fine, they can think that, but that's different than saying it's overs.

The delusional part is suggesting that Tsatas isn't that good. He's a top 5 player, has been all year. He won Oakleigh's BnF ahead of Wardlaw. He runs one way. Cool, that's one flaw. He has elite speed, is a fantastic kick and is good over the ball. He might not be Wardlaw/Clark levels in his attack on the footy and some people interpret that as "soft", and they'd be wrong. In addition, all the experts say he's clearly in the top 5 ahead of the next crop of players.

If we keep the pick, I hope we take him. Or Wardlaw. Whoever's left.

 

[danster168]

People have said that the cost/benefit might not be worth it. That's fine, they can think that, but that's different than saying it's overs.

The delusional part is suggesting that Tsatas isn't that good. He's a top 5 player, has been all year. He won Oakleigh's BnF ahead of Wardlaw. He runs one way. Cool, that's one flaw. He has elite speed, is a fantastic kick and is good over the ball. He might not be Wardlaw/Clark levels in his attack on the footy and some people interpret that as "soft", and they'd be wrong. In addition, all the experts say he's clearly in the top 5 ahead of the next crop of players.

If we keep the pick, I hope we take him. Or Wardlaw. Whoever's left.

his skills are scrappy and his decision making and awareness is flawed. Even in his highlights reel there's many mistakes that he does.

 

[Wild Bill]

People have said that the cost/benefit might not be worth it. That's fine, they can think that, but that's different than saying it's overs.

The delusional part is suggesting that Tsatas isn't that good. He's a top 5 player, has been all year. He won Oakleigh's BnF ahead of Wardlaw. He runs one way. Cool, that's one flaw. He has elite speed, is a fantastic kick and is good over the ball. He might not be Wardlaw/Clark levels in his attack on the footy and some people interpret that as "soft", and they'd be wrong. In addition, all the experts say he's clearly in the top 5 ahead of the next crop of players.

If we keep the pick, I hope we take him. Or Wardlaw. Whoever's left.

Wardlaw missing most of the season played a big part in Tsatas winning the B&F.

The slight on Tsatas is his defensive pressure is really poor where he was in the best position to tackle he stood and watched. Also his accumulation numbers look great but he runs forward of the play and on the end of the other mids good work.

We have 3 players at the top of our draft board - I hope he isn't one. He can get away with it in a good team but in a rebuilding team it's a major concern and he will be exposed IMO.

 

[eth-dog]

his skills are scrappy and his decision making and awareness is flawed. Even in his highlights reel there's many mistakes that he does.

It's a wonder how so many people who've watched him over a number of years have had him top 5 of this draft for so long given all his flaws according to the guys who watch 5 minutes of footage.

 

[Hazardinho]

People have said that the cost/benefit might not be worth it. That's fine, they can think that, but that's different than saying it's overs.

The delusional part is suggesting that Tsatas isn't that good. He's a top 5 player, has been all year. He won Oakleigh's BnF ahead of Wardlaw. He runs one way. Cool, that's one flaw. He has elite speed, is a fantastic kick and is good over the ball. He might not be Wardlaw/Clark levels in his attack on the footy and some people interpret that as "soft", and they'd be wrong. In addition, all the experts say he's clearly in the top 5 ahead of the next crop of players.

If we keep the pick, I hope we take him. Or Wardlaw. Whoever's left.

How can you determine the cost/benefit in a draft setting? When each draft recruiter has a different view on how they assess a talent pool. So the example I’ve seen you use is, west coast traded back from pick 12 to 14 last year for an additional second round pick from Port Adelaide. Now Port Adelaide went onto select Josh Sinn, who was considered a top 3 pick along with Sonise and JHF at the start of 2021. So he slid dramatically based on where he was projected to go on draft night.
Now what you need to consider is, did the port Adelaide recruitment team think that Josh Sinn slid too much and rated him a lot higher in their draft ranking, let’s say they rated him at 7th overall in the draft. It makes sense from port Adelaide’s perspective to trade up two selections when Essendon where gonna select Sinn at 13, so by paying an additional second rounder they secure the talent they want.
This is why you cannot compare previous years trades to Essendon’s pick 5 holding such a high value, that St Kilda must pay two first round selections to secure Tsatas.
There’s too many variables and risks associated, with the draft trade you propose. Because one of the first round selections is not pre-determined, it is dependent on St Kilda’s performances next year. If St Kilda have a horrible year and finish 18th, pick 1 and pick 10 is not fair for pick 5. And it’s worse when you apply real life context to it as well, considering Harley Reid is the favourite at the moment to go pick 1 next year! Who is a millions times better prospect than Tsatas ever will be imo and is already a much better player now whilst being a year younger.

 

[danster168]

It's a wonder how so many people who've watched him over a number of years have had him top 5 of this draft for so long given all his flaws according to the guys who watch 5 minutes of footage.

Jonathan O' Rourke went number 2.

 

[eth-dog]

How can you determine the cost/benefit in a draft setting? When each draft recruiter has a different view on how they assess a talent pool. So the example I’ve seen you use is, west coast traded back from pick 12 to 14 last year for an additional second round pick from Port Adelaide. Now Port Adelaide went onto select Josh Sinn, who was considered a top 3 pick along with Sonise and JHF at the start of 2021. So he slid dramatically based on where he was projected to go on draft night.
Now what you need to consider is, did the port Adelaide recruitment team think that Josh Sinn slid too much and rated him a lot higher in their draft ranking, let’s say they rated him at 7th overall in the draft. It makes sense from port Adelaide’s perspective to trade up two selections when Essendon where gonna select Sinn at 13, so by paying an additional second rounder they secure the talent they want.
This is why you cannot compare previous years trades to Essendon’s pick 5 holding such a high value, that St Kilda must pay two first round selections to secure Tsatas.
There’s too many variables and risks associated, with the draft trade you propose. Because one of the first round selections is not pre-determined, it is dependent on St Kilda’s performances next year. If St Kilda have a horrible year and finish 18th, pick 1 and pick 10 is not fair for pick 5. And it’s worse when you apply real life context to it as well, considering Harley Reid is the favourite at the moment to go pick 1 next year! Who is a millions times better prospect than Tsatas ever will be imo and is already a much better player now whilst being a year younger.

At the start of last year it was JHF and Caicos seen as the top 2 with a bullet, followed by Callaghan and then Sinn/Sonsie behind all three. And there's a bit of a difference between starting the year in the top 5 and then dropping out by all and sundry by mid year to being top 5 the entire time.

I've cited that, GWS trading up two picks by using a F1, and West Coast trading in 8, 12 and a third essentially for pick 2. All have shown that top 5 picks require a large cost.

As far as St. Kilda is concerned, the only possible way they're in contention for pick 1 is if all of Steele, Marshall, Gresham, King, Howard, Sinclair, Wilkie and Membrey don't play a single game next year. And even then I'd back them to finish ahead of North and Hawthorne. If they decide the cost outweighs the benefit, fine, that's their call. They should still be able to get a quality player at pick 10.

Jonathan O' Rourke went number 2.

Which was called a reach by literally everyone. In addition, that was one of the worst drafts of all time, using that as a reference means **** all.

 

[danster168]

Which was called a reach by literally everyone. In addition, that was one of the worst drafts of all time, using that as a reference means * all.

How about toumpas, setterfield, ainsworth, rayner, paddy dow, schache,
Jarrod pickett, Billings, kade kolodjashnij, dom tyson and Buntine? All top 5 picks just like Tsatas. Just goes to show that people are well within their right to point out flaws in a player and it means diddly squat that they are a top 5 pick.

 

[eth-dog]

How about toumpas, setterfield, ainsworth, rayner, paddy dow, schache,
Jarrod pickett, Billings, kade kolodjashnij, dom tyson and Buntine? All top 5 picks just like Tsatas. Just goes to show that people are well within their right to point out flaws in a player and it means diddly squat that they are a top 5 pick.

I take the opinion of experts over yours. I'll back him to be a star.

 

[Wild Bill]

At the start of last year it was JHF and Caicos seen as the top 2 with a bullet, followed by Callaghan and then Sinn/Sonsie behind all three. And there's a bit of a difference between starting the year in the top 5 and then dropping out by all and sundry by mid year to being top 5 the entire time.

I've cited that, GWS trading up two picks by using a F1, and West Coast trading in 8, 12 and a third essentially for pick 2. All have shown that top 5 picks require a large cost.

As far as St. Kilda is concerned, the only possible way they're in contention for pick 1 is if all of Steele, Marshall, Gresham, King, Howard, Sinclair, Wilkie and Membrey don't play a single game next year. And even then I'd back them to finish ahead of North and Hawthorne. If they decide the cost outweighs the benefit, fine, that's their call. They should still be able to get a quality player at pick 10.

Which was called a reach by literally everyone. In addition, that was one of the worst drafts of all time, using that as a reference means * all.

Callaghan didn't come into the discussion until mid year. Sinn and Sonsie were rated higher up until July.

Dow went at 3.

 

[danster168]

I take the opinion of experts over yours. I'll back him to be a star.

didn't answer my question. the same experts you're going with are the same ones that got these top 5 picks wrong. which is literally my whole point

 

[eth-dog]

didn't answer my question. the same experts you're going with are the same ones that got these top 5 picks wrong. which is literally my whole point

Players fail to live up to their draft billing. Wow, what a shock. More often than not they do reach the level expected. I'll back our recruiters to get it right if Tsatas is the one they pick. The same if it's Humphrey, Wardlaw, Phillipou or whoever.

Your opinion on football is basically the same level as Wild Bill. Actually, nah, that's a bit disrespectful of WB

 

[RUNVS]

Not that I expect them to be right with the Swans as they both get it wrong with Sydney every single time but does anyone know when Twomeny and Sheehan will be doing their mock draft together on Road to the Draft?

 

[danster168]

Players fail to live up to their draft billing. Wow, what a shock. More often than not they do reach the level expected. I'll back our recruiters to get it right if Tsatas is the one they pick. The same if it's Humphrey, Wardlaw, Phillipou or whoever.

Your opinion on football is basically the same level as Wild Bill. Actually, nah, that's a bit disrespectful of WB

what are you basing my football knowledge on? I'm pretty darn knowledgeable and I just proved you wrong with my long lost of top 5 picks that didn't justify their position.

 

[Hazardinho]

At the start of last year it was JHF and Caicos seen as the top 2 with a bullet, followed by Callaghan and then Sinn/Sonsie behind all three. And there's a bit of a difference between starting the year in the top 5 and then dropping out by all and sundry by mid year to being top 5 the entire time.

I've cited that, GWS trading up two picks by using a F1, and West Coast trading in 8, 12 and a third essentially for pick 2. All have shown that top 5 picks require a large cost.

As far as St. Kilda is concerned, the only possible way they're in contention for pick 1 is if all of Steele, Marshall, Gresham, King, Howard, Sinclair, Wilkie and Membrey don't play a single game next year. And even then I'd back them to finish ahead of North and Hawthorne. If they decide the cost outweighs the benefit, fine, that's their call. They should still be able to get a quality player at pick 10.

Which was called a reach by literally everyone. In addition, that was one of the worst drafts of all time, using that as a reference means * all.

Daicos was unranked by everyone as his only level of football played was at school football, but he had a reputation of those close to him that he was an outstanding talent. Finn Callaghan was rated in the twenties at the start of last year, what are you on about?
There was no one that predicted the rise of Callaghan to be a top 3 pick start of last year.
I get those draft trades occurred but the main difference is Tsatas isn’t a consensus top 5 pick by the looks of it, because if he was he’d be confirmed by either us or North Melbourne by now he’s getting selected. The fact there is a narrative building that Essendon’s pick shapes the top 10 of the draft, speaks volumes that Tsatas isn’t a 100% lock, and actually deters our negotiation power if a club wants to trade up to our pick. The fact that there is even rumours that Tsatas could slide to pick 10, shows that Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast, are passing up a player they don’t rate as highly as you.
The fact that we’re linked to three players at our pick still, whereby the other two prospects being considered at our pick you could argue are more needs based over the supposed “superior” talent in Tsatas shows there is some doubts that are lingering.