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Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

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Brett Cummings said:
If we pick o'sullivan or leake with our first pick I'm going to become completely disinterested in the afl. I'm not saying they aren't good players but I'm done with this club ignoring the midfield. It's complete *ing trash. When we come up against good sides like gws we get completely *ing obliterated.

and the happy clappers are like.

View attachment 1852502

It's the exact reason mattymac was done with this club. Enough is enough.
Click to expand...

Most of our midfield is already here - just not ready. Pedlar Rachele and Soligo are going to be the core of our midfield moving forward - ideally we would get an elite mid via the draft (McKercher) but that’s not happening.
Wilson looks good but is not in the same league as McKercher in this draft (different style of players I know). Leake or Tholstrup have as much chance of becoming that’s star for us as Wilson does


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Big Dub said:
Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:
  • 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
  • 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
  • 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of these was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stefan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.
But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:
View attachment 1852393

The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:
View attachment 1852394
Key takeaways:
  • If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
  • It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
  • Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
  • Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
  • Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.
So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?
Click to expand...

Good analysis. Changed my mind given we probably need 2 rucks over the next 3 years. Happy for us to pick Goad as our 3rd pick based on your work!


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Brett Cummings said:
and you'll continue watching kelly, green, coniglio and calaghan do circle work around us.
Click to expand...
We ain’t getting any top 3 elite mid (like all of the above) in this years draft. It’s simple and not hard to understand

ps why don’t you propose the trade that gets us Reid, McKerchner or Duursma. What do you think it will take to give up to obtain a top 4 pick. That’s where the elite mids are. Interested in your thoughts…at a minimum it’s pick 10, 14 and F1 and even that isn’t enough
 
Last edited:
www.theage.com.au

Why chaos could reign at this year’s AFL draft

In a draft already set to be the wildest in years, one pick could become a hot-ticket item and throw the top of the draft into chaos.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au

easier to just click on link as hard to edit and post this efficiently

Why chaos could reign at this year’s AFL draft​



West Coast are poised to keep the top pick for Monday night’s AFL draft. That’s the common view, although the Eagles still have the option to trade it before the first selection is made.
But another pick could become a hot-ticket item and throw the top of the draft into chaos – West Coast’s 2024 first-rounder.
Will West Coast keep pick one, and use it on Victoria’s Harley Reid?CREDIT: EDDIE JIM
In a draft already set to be the wildest in years, it’s a look ahead to the talent available in 2024 that could make this year’s draft even more interesting.
Not since the 2020 edition, when North Melbourne surprised everyone by taking Will Phillips at No.3, busting all top-10 predictions, have there been so many possibilities from early in the draft.

Why would West Coast trade their future first-round pick?​

North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Melbourne all had a red-hot go at trying to prise the No.1 choice off West Coast.

EDITOR'S PICK​

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...your-afl-club-next-month-20231022-p5ee4s.html
AFL draft top 40

Draft​

Meet the young guns who could be on their way to your AFL club next month​

The deadline for the Eagles to accept a pre-draft offer for the top pick in 2023 passed last Friday. But they can still trade it on Monday night, when the first round will take place, although most clubs expect them to keep it and select gun Victorian Harley Reid.
However, opposition recruiters believe the Eagles’ 2024 first-rounder – which will be an early choice again if they struggle next season – is up for grabs, with no Western Australians among next year’s top-liners at this stage. Any potential trade would be with this year’s top WA prospect, Daniel Curtin, in mind. For months, the talk was the Eagles would have to choose between Reid or Curtin, but this scenario would enable them to snare both.


Victorian midfielders Finn O’Sullivan, Josh Smillie, Levi Ashcroft – the Brisbane-bound brother of Will, and son of Marcus – and Jagga Smith are potential top-five selections next year, while South Australia’s Sid Draper was an under-18 All-Australian this year as a “bottom-ager”.
Those names won’t mean much to the average AFL fan right now, but they mean plenty to recruiters already plotting ways to get their hands on the most promising underage talent.
Hulking Gold Coast academy forward Jed Walter will be an early pick.CREDIT: AFL PHOTOS
There are paper-thin margins between this year’s top prospects, at least behind Reid and Gold Coast academy hotshot Jed Walter (a hulking key forward), before the 2023 draft class evens out as early as the teens, where club preference will determine how the order plays out.
And team plans could be altered further if North Melbourne repeat history and do a “2020”. They have picks two and three, are potential bidders on Walter, and could change the course of the draft if they go in a direction other than two of Colby McKercher, Zane Duursma and Nick Watson.

To swap or not to swap?​

Live trading during the draft, which was introduced in 2018, means list and recruiting managers will frantically work the phones as certain players slide, weighing up the risk and reward of trading up or down.

To swap or not to swap?​

Live trading during the draft, which was introduced in 2018, means list and recruiting managers will frantically work the phones as certain players slide, weighing up the risk and reward of trading up or down.

RELATED ARTICLE​

Draft

Why top AFL draft prospect put a media ban on himself​

Hawthorn traded pick 27 and future second- and third-round selections mid-draft last year for Sydney’s No.18, which they used on Josh Weddle, who played 17 games in an impressive debut season. The success of that move might prompt clubs to be similarly bold on Monday and Tuesday.
But they don’t always work out. Carlton infamously traded their 2019 first-round selection to Adelaide for the Crows’ No.19 in 2018, which they used on Liam Stocker, whom then-list boss Stephen Silvagni rated very highly. The Blues were not only betting on Stocker’s talent but themselves being better the next season.

Unfortunately for Carlton, they finished 16th in 2019, and eventually delisted Stocker after 28 games across four years. He has since reunited with Silvagni at St Kilda.

It’s academic​

Then there’s the academy element. The Swans, Giants, Suns and Lions can match any opposition bid on one of their northern academy players, who train in those respective clubs’ programs from a young age in the hope of graduating to the AFL list.
The 14 non-northern clubs have Next Generation Academies – for players with an Indigenous or multicultural background who are from an AFL-nominated zone allocated to that team.
When a rival club attempts to draft an academy player, the team that footballer is attached to has the right to match the bid based on an AFL formula, whereby a descending points value is attributed to each draft selection.

For example, pick one is worth 3000 points, and pick 12 is 1268 – right down to No.73 being valued at only nine points. Any selection from 74 onwards carries no points.
Clubs wishing to match an academy bid must do so with a collection of picks that equals the selection, in points value, that bid came at. The complication is that clubs receive a 20 per cent points discount on academy players who receive a first-round bid, and a fixed 197 points (about what pick 56 is worth) off any player after that.
[PLAYERCARD]Nick Blakey[/PLAYERCARD] was at the centre of a genius live draft trade in 2018.

Nick Blakey was at the centre of a genius live draft trade in 2018.CREDIT: AFL PHOTOS
Part of the rule is the matching club needs to use its picks directly after when the bid was made, which is why Sydney’s 2018 trades with West Coast were genius. The Swans’ arrangement with the Eagles that enabled them to secure then-academy prospect Nick Blakey at a bargain rate was a much-talked-about live trade.
Sydney knew they would match a bid on Blakey somewhere in the first round, so they teed up two trades with the Eagles pre-draft.

First, the Swans traded their second-rounder in 2018 before the Giants bid on Blakey at No.10, which meant they were able to collate later selections to match the bid. After the bid was matched, they completed a second deal with West Coast that handed that original second-round selection right back to them.
There will be a strong academy flavour again in next week’s draft, just as there was in that aforementioned 2020 edition, when academy prospects Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (No.1), Braeden Campbell (5), Lachie Jones (16), Reef McInnes (23) and Blake Coleman (24) received first-round bids – all of which were matched.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was the No.1 pick as an academy prospect in 2020.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was the No.1 pick as an academy prospect in 2020.CREDIT: AFL PHOTOS

No more loophole​

After Sydney’s 2018 move, the AFL swiftly shut that loophole, preventing clubs from following the Swans’ example. It is the same bidding process for father-son prospects.

RELATED ARTICLE​

Nick Watson.

Draft​

Meet the draft prospect tipped to kick as many goals as Betts, Breust and co.​

And though clubs used to be able to match any bid on a Next Generation Academy player, just like the northern academies, the AFL changed the rule. Clubs can still match bids, but only from pick 40 onwards.
Back to this year’s draft. Gold Coast will match four opposition bids on academy prospects next week, with at least three of them set to come in the first round. Father-son duo Jordan Croft (tied to Western Bulldogs) and Will McCabe (Hawthorn) are also likely first-round draftees.
However, North Melbourne (Ryley Sanders), West Coast (Lance Collard), Hawthorn (Tew Jiath, brother of Changkuoth), Fremantle (Mitch Edwards) and the Bulldogs (Luamon Lual) are set to miss out on NGA players because of that rule change.

The first domino​


There is a popular top 10, which includes, in no particular order: Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson, Sanders, Nate Caddy, Curtin, Ethan Read and Connor O’Sullivan, although bolters Caleb Windsor and James Leake are threatening to break in.
Colby McKercher is one of the best prospects in this year’s draft class.

Colby McKercher is one of the best prospects in this year’s draft class.CREDIT: AFL PHOTOS
All it would take is for one club to select Windsor or Leake with a top-10 pick, or make an earlier-than-expected bid on someone such as Gold Coast-bound midfielder Jake Rogers, for everything to change.
The Suns accumulated a suite of selections in the trade period in preparation for the worst-case scenario with their academy young guns.
After the top 10 or 12 selections, recruiters will tell you there are fewer genuinely safe picks than usual, and clubs may resort to punting on unproven upside. It’s going to be a fascinating draft.

The Age’s top 40​

As published at the end of October:
  1. Harley Reid
  2. Jed Walter
  3. Colby McKercher
  4. Zane Duursma
  5. Nick Watson
  6. Ryley Sanders
  7. Nate Caddy
  8. Daniel Curtin
  9. Ethan Read
  10. Connor O’Sullivan
  11. Caleb Windsor
  12. James Leake
  13. Jake Rogers
  14. Darcy Wilson
  15. Jordan Croft
  16. Will McCabe
  17. Koltyn Tholstrup
  18. Riley Hardeman
  19. Ollie Murphy
  20. Lance Collard
  21. Archer Reid
  22. Will Graham
  23. Arie Schoenmaker
  24. Charlie Edwards
  25. Taylor Goad
  26. Harry DeMattia
  27. Tew Jiath
  28. Will Green
  29. Phoenix Gothard
  30. Mitch Edwards
  31. Angus Hastie
  32. Zane Zakostelsky
  33. Archie Roberts
  34. Caiden Cleary
  35. Aiden O’Driscoll
  36. Logan Morris
  37. Cooper Simpson
  38. Luamon Lual
  39. Vigo Visentini
  40. Koen Sanchez
 
Thinking about it further, I think Weagkes WILL swap F1 but they will get better offers than us. Either Dees at 6 or GWS at 7 are quite likely to have Curtin available AND likely to accept giving that pick up for a F1 pick swap

we don’t get a look in at 10 and F1 swaps IMHO. We aren’t giving up enough and unlikely to be a fully elite player at this pick - almost certainly not Curtin who Weagles reportedly want
 
baldandbroke said:
Reilly O”Brien? Not athletic? Hu
Click to expand...
Athleticism means having traits such as agility, mobility, balance, coordination, power, speed, stability, endurance, strength.

I’ll give you strength and endurance but ROB hardly excels in any of the others.
 
Apsaalooke said:
Athleticism means having traits such as agility, mobility, balance, coordination, power, speed, stability, endurance, strength.

I’ll give you strength and endurance but ROB hardly excels in any of the others.
Click to expand...
In history how many rucks do have all these traits? Perhaps NicNat, not sure if anyone else,

surely contested marking and actual tap work is as important as many of the above traits like agility or speed?
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
I would imagine, the only way the AFL would tick-off on Welsh playing at the Crows, would be if we have already committed to him under father/son

Otherwise, every AFL Club VFL affiliate would have draftees playing for them as well
Click to expand...
Weird suggestion - Victorian kids have a better option currently than playing fulltime in the VFL. Welsh HAS to play SANFL, it's just a question of with whom.
 
The more I read the phantom draft the more im confused....

Why would we go Caddy or O'Sullivan etc when we got Burgess from GC, getting Welsh next year, still have EH on list and are very interested in Petty?

Only reason for Leake would be if we see him as a Smith replacement, yet we have Milera, Jones and drafted Michelanney last year?

Windsor, Wilson etc seem the only viable options filling a need....
 

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Mostyn said:
Weird suggestion - Victorian kids have a better option currently than playing fulltime in the VFL. Welsh has to play SANFL, it's just a question of with whom.
Click to expand...
Yes, I was a bit off .....that said, I have a hunch the rules were written prior to the Vic AFL Clubs having their own reserves side again

"maybe" rules were aimed at the VFL when in recent years it was stand alone
 
FullyBigKPro said:
The more I read the phantom draft the more im confused....

Why would we go Caddy or O'Sullivan etc when we got Burgess from GC, getting Welsh next year, still have EH on list and are very interested in Petty?

Only reason for Leake would be if we see him as a Smith replacement, yet we have Milera, Jones and drafted Michelanney last year?

Windsor, Wilson etc seem the only viable options filling a need....
Click to expand...

Burgess is just a backup, EH is gone soon.

Plus, I don't think Caddy IS an option?
 
119others said:
Thinking about it further, I think Weagkes WILL swap F1 but they will get better offers than us. Either Dees at 6 or GWS at 7 are quite likely to have Curtin available AND likely to accept giving that pick up for a F1 pick swap

we don’t get a look in at 10 and F1 swaps IMHO. We aren’t giving up enough and unlikely to be a fully elite player at this pick - almost certainly not Curtin who Weagles reportedly want
Click to expand...
Not sure there..the dees would be giving up a top kid this year to hope to get a top kid next year?..what is the incentve

GWS 'might' if they are genuinely not fussed at the top end with all the high end talent they currently have.

I'd say we are not completely out of the picture but it would not be for curtin as he is no chace at pick 10 to be there still
 

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119others said:
In history how many rucks do have all these traits? Perhaps NicNat, not sure if anyone else,

surely contested marking and actual tap work is as important as many of the above traits like agility or speed?
Click to expand...
Yep few rucks are gazelles but not many look like newborn giraffes when kicking a ball
 
George Kramer said:
So Taylor Goad was playing basketball before turning to football as a 16 year old.

Given his height, mobility, athleticism, development potential, South Aussie. Surely we take him. Not often you get this opportunity.
Click to expand...
Agree

Might just be a matter of how high do you take him

Pick 20 might not be enough as only takes one club
 
Pick 20 will be pick 25 by the time it comes to use it. Reckon Goad will be in the thinking for us that far out in a "lesser" draft year. He's got plenty of seasons to develop before we decide to retire ROB

It's looking a fascinating draft, with so many varied opinions there could be several teams trading out first rounders into next year - or none!
 

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Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

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