Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[Hawk1986]

So KL shared that we rejected dees offer of 4,62,63 for 6,11,42. The problem with that deal is 42 isn’t much use to us given McCabe and already having 3 x 40s picks. It would certainly make matching McCabe and dear an absolute formality.
Instead I would keep 63, drop 42 and have dees add their f2. This would allow us to also trade our f1 now or in the future. Or having 2 f2 picks could allow us to trade up the order with one of the clubs with a first round bid match.
Hawks 2023: 6,11,44,47,49,63
Hawks 2024: f1,f2(pies),f2(dees) - I call these picks the double Stephen May death ride!

Osullivan Wilson McCabe Dear for me. Remember we only really have 4 list spots with the commitment to wingard and stephens.

we may have rejected because 1) we want to see who is on the board at 4 before moving 2) get more on the night.

Or we just don’t want to move from 4

 

[FB19]

we may have rejected because 1) we want to see who is on the board at 4 before moving 2) get more on the night.

Or we just don’t want to move from 4

That covers it! I’m not suggesting doing it prior it’s a live trade agreed beforehand if duursma isn’t there and they want mckercher.

 

[triangulation_squared]

These aren’t great ways of proving your point in the context of Watson. No sane NBA GM is going to use a top 5 pick to draft IT. He’s a journeyman who had a couple of good seasons and even when he did Danny Ainge couldn’t wait to sign Kyrie Irving instead because the Celtics were never going to win a championship with IT at point guard.

And now Watson is just going to be a super sub? We are going to use pick 5 on a burst player?

I’m really not sold on these arguments. I’ll take the ready made kid who has already capably played against men and can already play two positions and could possibly develop in others given his size and skill set.

No doubt Watson is a talent, but you’re not exactly selling him as one. These arguments are like saying ‘Napoleon was about 170cm and he conquered most of Europe, imagine what Watson could do!!!’.

Nah, we're talking moneybags strategy here and winning premierships.

When it comes to NBA the best situational example is the 2009 NBA draft where Steph Curry was deemed too small to make it and went at pick number 7. 6 clubs passed on the greatest scorer the NBA has seen because of his perceived height disadvantage. Who did the Sacamento Kings take at pick 4 that year? Tyreke Evans. Who is Tyreke Evans? Blake Griffen at 1 and James Harden at 3 landed, but Sacramento should have taken the shooting wizard at 4.

When it comes to Napolean, I'd say Genghis Khan is a far better example of fearless conquerors. Genghis Khan as a super sub not a bad option.

 

[hawkinoz]

Happy with whoever we choose.

But if we want Curtain, lets go all in.

• Trade 4 to Dee’s for 6 & 11 (and other swaps as needed)
• Trade F1 to Cats for 8 (and whatever else needed)

Take 6, 8, 11.

6: Curtain
8: Caddy
11: Windsor/Wilson etc
Then McCabe in the teens.

Only trade with dees once Duursma/McKercher off the board. And obviously we can trade with cats regardless of Dees move.

This throws up a interesting conundrum.. if this happens, our list is filled out.

What happens if no one bids on Dear, we can't take him with last pick. if we are forced to. That would mean only one of Chad & Cooper can be rookie listed.

May be better to switch the cats trade to 11+F1 for 8+F1 or see if someone would give up their F1 for 11, Crows maybe.

 

[aussie80s]

I don’t understand why we would take someone who will effectively play half back flank for 3 years and pass up an electric small forward.

Wasn't sure which way we would lean with Curtin, Watson or anyone else (and still don't), but after signing two small forwards in the trade period with Ginnivan and D'ambrosio I think it less likely that you would draft another on top of that. Breust and Wingard still to fill that role in short term (or maybe not in Wingard's case), then we also have Moore, Butler, Bennetts and O'Sullivan. Not sure if you have a list of 45 players that you would have nearly one quarter of them as small forwards.

I'll be happy with whoever we get but it will be interesting if at our pick both Watson and Curtin are available and see which way we go. At that pick it is usually talent over need.

 

[Platten44]

Edit: added f3 to trade.

So KL shared that we rejected dees offer of 4,62,63 for 6,11,42. The problem with that deal is 42 isn’t much use to us given McCabe and already having 3 x 40s picks. It would certainly make matching McCabe and dear an absolute formality.
Instead I would keep 63, drop 42 and have dees add their f2 and f3. This would allow us to also trade our f1 now or in the future. Or having 2 f2 picks could allow us to trade up the order with one of the clubs with a first round bid match.
Hawks 2023: 6,11,44,47,49,63
Hawks 2024: f1,f2(pies),f2(dees),f3(dees) - I call these picks the double Stephen May death ride!

Osullivan Wilson McCabe Dear for me. Remember we only really have 4 list spots with the commitment to wingard and stephens.

There are no restrictions on trading our 1st rounder next year. We don’t need a 3rd rounder next year for a trade.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Happy with whoever we choose.

But if we want Curtain, lets go all in.

• Trade 4 to Dee’s for 6 & 11 (and other swaps as needed)
• Trade F1 to Cats for 8 (and whatever else needed)

Take 6, 8, 11.

6: Curtain
8: Caddy
11: Windsor/Wilson etc
Then McCabe in the teens.

Only trade with dees once Duursma/McKercher off the board. And obviously we can trade with cats regardless of Dees move.

If we did that trade I would hope we come away with - Caddy, O'Sullivan and Leake. I imagine Curtin won't make it to pick 6.

 

[Brishawk]

Nah, we're talking moneybags strategy here and winning premierships.

When it comes to NBA the best situational example is the 2009 NBA draft where Steph Curry was deemed too small to make it and went at pick number 7. 6 clubs passed on the greatest scorer the NBA has seen because of his perceived height disadvantage. Who did the Sacamento Kings take at pick 4 that year? Tyreke Evans. Who is Tyreke Evans? Blake Griffen at 1 and James Harden at 3 landed, but Sacramento should have taken the shooting wizard at 4.

When it comes to Napolean, I'd say Genghis Khan is a far better example of fearless conquerors. Genghis Khan as a super sub not a bad option.

Curry is the exception though. The nba is basically becoming a league of mid-sized giants. Players in the 6’6 to 6’10 range despite curry’s success. Taking watson at 4 would also be betting against the trend. It will be a brave move with such high quality players available at that pick.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Nah, we're talking moneybags strategy here and winning premierships.

When it comes to NBA the best situational example is the 2009 NBA draft where Steph Curry was deemed too small to make it and went at pick number 7. 6 clubs passed on the greatest scorer the NBA has seen because of his perceived height disadvantage. Who did the Sacamento Kings take at pick 4 that year? Tyreke Evans. Who is Tyreke Evans? Blake Griffen at 1 and James Harden at 3 landed, but Sacramento should have taken the shooting wizard at 4.

When it comes to Napolean, I'd say Genghis Khan is a far better example of fearless conquerors. Genghis Khan as a super sub not a bad option.

Using the greatest shooter of all time (and a top 10 player ever) and the greatest ever soccer player as examples is setting the highest bar possible for Watson.

Maybe Watson will become one of the top 10 players ever, but the odds suggest that this is extremely unlikely.

Also, Steph Curry is 188cm tall. The average NBA player's height is 2m.

Watson is 170cm tall. The average AFL player's height is 188cm.

Not quite the same sort of differential.

 

[triangulation_squared]

Curry is the exception though. The nba is basically becoming a league of mid-sized giants. Players in the 6’6 to 6’10 range despite curry’s success. Taking watson at 4 would also be betting against the trend. It will be a brave move with such high quality players available at that pick.

Correct. If you're recruiting manager you don't get fired for taking a 180cm plus player that busts at number 4. But you probably get fired for taking a 170cm player that busts at 4. I think we should trade back to 6 or 7 and take him there.

 

[naysayer]

Watson sneaking up on Zane in the poll...

Those draft profile videos are excellent, and Watson's video would be enough to entice me even if we had pick 1. Haven't seen a draft profile video with that much raw skill on display since Isaac Rankine. He is a player we are sorely lacking.

 

[naysayer]

Correct. If you're recruiting manager you don't get fired for taking a 180cm plus player that busts at number 4. But you probably get fired for taking a 170cm player that busts at 4. I think we should trade back to 6 or 7 and take him there.

First we'll see if he's still available at 4.

 

[triangulation_squared]

Using the greatest shooter of all time (and a top 10 player ever) and the greatest ever soccer player as examples is setting the highest bar possible for Watson.

Maybe Watson will become one of the top 10 players ever, but the odds suggest that this is extremely unlikely.

Also, Steph Curry is 188cm tall. The average NBA player's height is 2m.

Watson is 170cm tall. The average AFL player's height is 188cm.

Not quite the same sort of differential.

Using the greatest shooter of all time (and a top 10 player ever) and the greatest ever soccer player as examples is setting the highest bar possible for Watson.

Maybe Watson will become one of the top 10 players ever, but the odds suggest that this is extremely unlikely.

Also, Steph Curry is 188cm tall. The average NBA player's height is 2m.

Watson is 170cm tall. The average AFL player's height is 188cm.

Not quite the same sort of differential.

Great points. It will come down to how much Dawg is in him which I frankly haven't the slightest insight into.

With Messi, he reads the play better than everybody else as he also has issues with his tank. Doubtful that Wiz is at that level versus his peers, but his highlights real suggests that his spacial awareness is elite.

Cyril Rioli was 1.77 which I think is where you'd need Wiz to be to take him at number 4. Similarly Trae Young, the next incarnation of Curry went pick 5 in 2018. Teams having learnt their mistake. Moneyball says if you want Wiz, trade back to 6,7 or 8 amd get him.

 

[FB19]

There are no restrictions on trading our 1st rounder next year. We don’t need a 3rd rounder next year for a trade.

Since when? It was to not have a first rounder you needed 2/3/4 they changed this year to 2/3. Another change or unknown rule?

 

[Platten44]

Since when? It was to not have a first rounder you needed 2/3/4 they changed this year to 2/3. Another change or unknown rule?

It’s only when trading future picks.
Look at Port this year.

 

[Alite]

Possible Draft Night Plan

• Continue to offer a pick swap with 1, 2, or 3 other clubs that result in the Hawks giving pick 4(5) and F1 to receive Pick 1

Then pick one of…

ND 1st pick: H.Reid, D.Curtin, N.Watson, Z.Duursma, … if none of those are available, but C.McKercher is and Melbourne want him, then do the deal for picks 6 and 11 to pick up COS and Wilson / Caddy / Windsor / Leake. (I agree McKercher is v.good but IMO for the Hawks picks 6 and 11 would be better.) Or take Pick 6 and Melbourne’s F1. If Melbourne say say no: we happily take McKercher.

ND 2nd pick: W.McCabe

• if a bid comes for W.McCabe before the Sun’s J.Rogers then pick swap our remaining late picks to GC providing them points and receive their Pick 38 (465)
• If the Hawks have Melbourne’s F1 then use that to get back into the draft if we see the player we want. If not keep it.

ND 3rd pick: Logan Morris, Archer Reid… gap… George Stevens, Angus Hastie, Evan Smith, … gap… Will Lorenz , Harvey Johnston, Lachlan Charleson, Aiden O'Driscoll, Phoenix Gothard, Cam Nyko, TJ (who is at the end of this list only on a lack of need bc we have his brother)

• After pick 30 try to trade up for L.Morris or A.Reid otherwise wait to see if any of the others make it to our 3rd pick.

ND 4th pick: C.Dear

 

[Alite]

on the above concept…

ND Pick 3 options that I prefer:

Logan Morris: I love a guy who can pack mark and Logan is it. Undersized as a KPF but reminds me of Sicily or May in that his height will not likely matter. I seriously want him at the Hawks but don’t see the method to get him to the Hawks given our draft position.


Archer Reid: is tall, fast, very agile and has good skills. Does not pack mark as often as expected at his height. Should have dominated his draft year but was underwhelming. Definitely worth trading up to after pick 30 based on potential :


Angus Hastie has the peripheral vision and footy IQ to know when to go and when to be safe. Has all of the tools to be an AFL player. He is not in a position of need for the hawks but his talent should not be ignored. Here are his (not highlight) game involvements:


George Stevens is a beast. I don’t care whether he is playing against kids or hardened men, he will always be a beast. He is the perfect backup for Worps in the short-term and may pass him in the long term. I love players with an unusual and defining trait and Stevens is highly unique at 189cm and 101kgs.

Draft watch: George Stevens

Watch the best of draft prospect George Stevens so far in 2023

www.afl.com.au

Evan Smith: a highly mobile tall. I’d develop him as a backmen to compete against the King’s and Danaher types of the AFL

 

[FB19]

It’s only when trading future picks.
Look at Port this year.

Ok that’s what I meant it allows us to trade our f1 by securing an f2 or f3 or in my deal both.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Nah, we're talking moneybags strategy here and winning premierships.

When it comes to NBA the best situational example is the 2009 NBA draft where Steph Curry was deemed too small to make it and went at pick number 7. 6 clubs passed on the greatest scorer the NBA has seen because of his perceived height disadvantage. Who did the Sacamento Kings take at pick 4 that year? Tyreke Evans. Who is Tyreke Evans? Blake Griffen at 1 and James Harden at 3 landed, but Sacramento should have taken the shooting wizard at 4.

When it comes to Napolean, I'd say Genghis Khan is a far better example of fearless conquerors. Genghis Khan as a super sub not a bad option.

Nice Steph Curry reference with all of the benefits of hindsight. Who is Tyreke Evans you ask? He was the ROTY in his debut year. He also had injuries hamper his development along with drug issues. However a year on from drafting the hindsight game would be very different. Also Curry was considered too small (both in terms of height and weight) to play SG and there were doubts whether he could play PG. So this comparison might come into play if we were talking about picking Watson as a midfielder where he absolutely would be deemed to be too short to use a top 5 pick on as a midfielder.

Again, Watson looks to be a very talented small forward and most likely go within the first 5 picks. A great achievement for someone so much smaller than even the average small forward. But your comparisons are just wildly cherry picked and have zero relevance to our game.

 

[buddylove23]

Are we in line to pick up Tew Jiath do we know? He’s zoned isn’t he?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[The Chad and I]

Looking thru current sports people around the same height as the wizard who are doing OK

Lionel Messi 1.7m greatest soccer player of all time. Would you draft Ronaldo over Messi as he can play other positions?

Alexander Volkonovski, current world champ MMA 1.68m I certainly wouldn't think he'd have any issues with defensive pressure in the AFL.

We are all dumber for having read this post.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Looking thru current sports people around the same height as the wizard who are doing OK

Lionel Messi 1.7m greatest soccer player of all time. Would you draft Ronaldo over Messi as he can play other positions?

Alexander Volkonovski, current world champ MMA 1.68m I certainly wouldn't think he'd have any issues with defensive pressure in the AFL.

What the hell is this

 

[KermitJagger]

Everyone needs to do themselves a favour and read through Caleb Daniel

5

Caleb Daniel

Age

29

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

's draft write ups, as he is the only fair comparison to Watson in the past 10 years.

2014 Draft Profile: Caleb Daniel

Caleb Daniel (South Adelaide) Height: 168 cm Weight: 68 kg Position: Midfielder/forward Strengths: Pace, agility, endurance, core strength, disposal, inside ability Areas of improvement: Nothing within his control Player comparison: Dayne Zorko (more skilled version) Caleb Daniel is a special...

central.rookieme.com

Draft Profile - Caleb Daniel

Caleb Daniel Height: 167cm Weight: 66kg From: South Adelaide, South Australia Position: Midfielder, Forward After his last two matches at the U18 Championships, the name on everyone's lips is Caleb Daniel so I figure it's about time I did his profile. For anyone who follows the South Australian...

www.bigfooty.com

All the tools to be a star, elite skills, elite endurance, above average speed - he dominated inside and impacted forward, and showed more versatility than Watson has so far. His U18 year he dragged SA across the line in their final 2 matches, one against a Petracca led Vic Metro's side where he had 21 disposals @ 86% efficiency, a monster 217 rating points. Kicked 3 goals from the midfield, dobbed a monster one from outside 50.

He slid to the third round, which was very clearly much too late for him to be picked up, but it also was vindicated in a way because despite all the talent in the world height has clearly been a massive limitation for him. If he were 20cm taller he'd be one of the best players in the AFL, but he's not and he has been pigeon holed as a half back for his entire career.

It is a genuine concern that similar will happen to Watson, which is a particular risk given we wouldn't be getting him for a bargain like the Dogs did with Daniel.

 

[The Chad and I]

I did a draft order and had Watson between 8-12.

 

[lethalselbow]

I did a draft order and had Watson between 8-12.

It's possible.