AFL 2023 - AFL Round 8

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I think Richmond win big after a lot of media attention during the week about how s**t they've been. They will want to steamroll a lesser team, and West Coast, if anything, are that.

I assume Dixon/Marshall/Finlayson will kick a bag against Essendon. Not sure who yet. Maybe whoever gets Zerk-Thatcher.
 

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Carlton, Port, Pies at 4s with a bet return for me

Blues the main worry but brisbane are usually pretty bog average in Melbourne and despite Carltons travels, they had a very bruise free game. Unsure i trust Lions backline either against the 2 big lugs (even if McKay been down).
 

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Carlton, Port, Pies at 4s with a bet return for me

Blues the main worry but brisbane are usually pretty bog average in Melbourne and despite Carltons travels, they had a very bruise free game. Unsure i trust Lions backline either against the 2 big lugs (even if McKay been down).
Lions are decent at Etihad.

Will be a good game.


Those rushing to bet Melbourne should wait, no way that doesn't drop.
 
Carlton, Port, Pies at 4s with a bet return for me

Blues the main worry but brisbane are usually pretty bog average in Melbourne and despite Carltons travels, they had a very bruise free game. Unsure i trust Lions backline either against the 2 big lugs (even if McKay been down).
Lions clearly a better team than Blues, but they've also been terrible on the road against better teams so can't really back them on that alone. I have Bris as small favs but won't bet and will tip Bris most likely.
 
Sam Simpson 2, 3, 4 @4.5, 14, 51 pointsbet. Kicked 2.1 on the weekend

668512BE-03BC-444E-A926-B0AA13F98397.jpeg
 
Be careful with Tigers, they are genuinely poor. If they bring the same performance as v Suns the Eagles have goalkickers to challenge them (Allen, Waterman). Expecting no relief from their injuries, but maybe with Cotchin out. Freo 41, Cats 47, Port 40. Tigers aren’t any better than these sides. They went for the kill last year against the Eagles but the round 16 fixture is much more comparable.

Tigers definitely win but 40ish line is a coin toss.

Saints however should easily account for North. Saints 40+ but probably more North total points line under - Lyon will strangle Norths goalkicking, whether the Saints truly blow North out of the water is a ??. Could see a 68-35 game personally.

Port should have the KF’s for Essendon. Port 25+ interests me.

Not enough value for Melbourne for me.

Despite people’s misgivings about Freo they will beat Hawthorn.

Don’t like picking any of the other matches results.
 
Allen up to 4 goals will be good. Also finally should be Samson Ryan’s week I reckon.

Dixon up to 5.

Saints a smattering of 3s and 2s I think.

And Naughton is due a bag of 6. Just like Hawkins and King built into last week, Naughton has built with 5 & 7 scoring shots last 2 weeks. Kicked 5 v GWS in Sydney last year, and no Sam Taylor.
 
Charlie Dixon 4+@11 at Neds.
 
I do t think much of the guy but

Jade Gresham. Kicked 2.1 against port and his heatmap reads well

2+ $2.45
3+ $5
4+ $16

B365.
Last time he played north he kicked 2.2 - saints are better and north are still not very good at all
 

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Posted in Round 5 Thread
Richmond to Miss Top 8 $2 Bet Right
Overs. Should be about $1.75 imo
Can also arb with To Make Top 8 $2.50 on Sportsbet if prefer that

Long wait for this to cash but how did they bet $2
 
Jayden Short coming up against depleted WC, gone 30 and 32 first games back. 30+@4 35+@14 at pointsbet
 
Tim Kelly disposals/goals in his last 6 games against Richmond including during Shortened game Covid year, starting from most recent:
40/2
21/1
26/1
32/1
31/3
36/1
Hardwick doesn’t tag any player no matter how dominant they are. Tim will run around on his own and feast this weekend. The books seem pretty awake to this from a disposal angle but we have been given some decent goalscorer odds on B365.

Tim Kelly atg@$3.70
Tim Kelly 2+@$23
 

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