List Mgmt. 2023 Trade Thread - Part II

[gringo2011]

Need a draw a line under all that now.

We know the core. We know the demographic they are working towards.

Hopefully another 2-3 first round kids this year and if we get the same outcome as the last 2 drafts - we are well on the way.

This is the thing, you aren't going to overachieve in every draft and reality says that all of our kids are no different to Billings, Acres, Dunstan, McCartin, Clark or Coff. We hope they all become stars but apart from Nas and maybe King all are still just potential. If they plateau or fail to step up to absolute top line players and you throw away all your older GOPs for free and pay all of the kids high wages....you get to exactly the place we are at.

Collingwood have something like 13 players that were on their 2016 list and most are stars. We have Sinclair, Gresham, Webster and Ross that played in the GWS final. Membrey probably would have. DMac and Billings the only other players listed still. Next year Sinclair might be the only remaining regular player.

We threw away heaps of players to top up. Now we are throwing away the experience and top ups to go all in on youth. Just having some kind of stability and system in place would be handy. If they don't get this right we are probably in for years of pain. They need to make sure they balance it well and not just slash and burn because they are off on another tangent.

 

[Username Unknown]

Regarding Adams, there is more to just his ability.

The coaches see how he prepares for and reviews games, how he responses to and implements feedback ect.

With the amount of experience in our coaching group. They know what mindset and work ethic it takes to become a good AFL footballer. Outside of his ability, they probably didn’t see enough to think he was going to be a player who would contribute to our team winning a flag.

Which is the big shift this year. It is no longer are you a player who can make the team, it is are you a player who is capable of helping us win a premiership.

Also another reason I am bullish on our drafting is Toce has a good record. But Roughy is his right hand man and he knows what elite talent (Skills and mindset) looks like.

RTB, Harvey, Hayes, Enright, Goddard, Roughy, Gubby, SOS, Toce. That is a lot of well respected people in the industry to have at one football club.

I don’t think SOS has as much influence as some people believe he does with the names above surrounding him.

 

[kernelT]

Nah, but Toll transport are feeling the pinch.

Is that little skeletor fella still foaming about Hirdy?

 

[Remboy]

His agent will know what bracket we will match.

It’s part of the dance.

Essendon won’t be wanting to pay picks. The lure is the fact the cost of the player is free.

So the salary component will have to work in those regards.

And plus, maybe it’s just me. But I can’t imagine Gresham leaving us for a band 3 compo type of salary.

He isn’t a bad footballer and we want to keep him.

That’s a good summary of it. For Gresh to leave someone will have to make an offer that gets us end of first round compo. If not, we keep him.

 

[stavro#4]

This is the thing, you aren't going to overachieve in every draft and reality says that all of our kids are no different to Billings, Acres, Dunstan, McCartin, Clark or Coff. We hope they all become stars but apart from Nas and maybe King all are still just potential. If they plateau or fail to step up to absolute top line players and you throw away all your older GOPs for free and pay all of the kids high wages....you get to exactly the place we are at.

Collingwood have something like 13 players that were on their 2016 list and most are stars. We have Sinclair, Gresham, Webster and Ross that played in the GWS final. Membrey probably would have. DMac and Billings the only other players listed still. Next year Sinclair might be the only remaining regular player.

We threw away heaps of players to top up. Now we are throwing away the experience and top ups to go all in on youth. Just having some kind of stability and system in place would be handy. If they don't get this right we are probably in for years of pain. They need to make sure they balance it well and not just slash and burn because they are off on another tangent.

Are you conveniently forgetting Marshall Steele crouch Wilkie Sinclair Butler Ross Webster as the group who will guide the youth forward?

You constantly cry about the mistakes we made and what path you want us to take.

We take that path. We saying we are going in this direction publicly and you’re still crying.

At this point I’m convinced you’re the big footy poster equivalent of a wife of 20 years.

If your are going to break our balls so badly.
Can you Atleast put out some joy semi regularly?

 

[gringo2011]

After tonight, how much would Melbourne be prepared to pay for a key forward?

The same amount we'd have to pay to replace one.

 

[gringo2011]

I saw Gubby in a cafe last weekend and he was actually happy to chat to me. Apparently this is exactly what they're gonna do..

Grainger-Barass looks like a shit truck.

I commented on him a few weeks ago. Just didn’t look up to it. After two years you should be starting to look pretty good at vfl level even if a young tall. Some very good players are only ever good enough for vfl. He had excuses, so it’s a little harsh in one sense, but I’m glad we’re making calls when we need to.

Came 6th in Sandy's best and fairest.

 

[gringo2011]

There’s never been an issue with JB’s work ethic.

You’re correct, he’s too critical of himself if anything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He comes across as a neurotic footballer. His confidence is always one mistake off crumbling and becoming withdrawn.

 

[Bertha]

That’s a good summary of it. For Gresh to leave someone will have to make an offer that gets us end of first round compo. If not, we keep him.

I've been thinking he's gone at the end of the year, all year long, but this is the most comfortable position to be in really. The market sets his contract price and/or level of compensation and we get to make a binary decision - he's either good value and we keep him or he provides resources that helps work towards a bigger opportunity.

Either way, it's a good position to be in, he's like having an old cow - you can use him to plough the field or eat him, depending on what you value the most.

 

[stavro#4]

I've been thinking he's gone at the end of the year, all year long, but this is the most comfortable position to be in really. The market sets his contract price and/or level of compensation and we get to make a binary decision - he's either good value and we keep him or he provides resources that helps work towards a bigger opportunity.

Either way, it's a good position to be in, he's like having an old cow - you can use him to plough the field or eat him, depending on what you value the most.

Should effectively work the same way for Howard too.

Lack of genuine KDP sets the price. Club can add some tax to it.

Opposition make an offer and we make the same decision

 

[Ricmel]

We threw away heaps of players to top up. Now we are throwing away the experience and top ups to go all in on youth. Just having some kind of stability and system in place would be handy. If they don't get this right we are probably in for years of pain. They need to make sure they balance it well and not just slash and burn because they are off on another tangent.

Not sure that narrative flies. Sure we have turned over a big chunk of the list but none of those delisted/traded players have done anything anywhere else (apart from Acres little purple patch).

You could argue we got to 2017 because we stayed the course with the 2010 list for too long. Fact is, had we done a Hawthorn type clean out in 12/13 we would likely be in a very good position now. We have been too stable and held on to players that clearly weren’t going to make us contenders for too long.

I think we have finally got a reasonable core but they have to be aggressive in pruning/recruiting because we don’t have a top 4 list.

 

[St Neil]

Would Blacres be our best player if we still had him?

God no, not even near it.

He’s playing well but he’s hit one of those purple patches where he seems to be in the right spot at the right time.

Good luck to him, I’m happy for him. But he’s not a player I have nightmares about having lost him. He had 3 years at the Dockers where he was fairly underwhelming for much of it.

 

[St Neil]

Still a first round pick.

If we can grab one for Howard - you have all the currency to move into the top 10

Would a club pay a 1st round pick for Howard?

 

[Sun Ra]

Would a club pay a 1st round pick for Howard?

With something coming back their way maybe.

 

[stavro#4]

Would a club pay a 1st round pick for Howard?

Last key defender left on the market isn’t he?

McKay rumoured to the Dons.

Zero Thatcher and Ratagulea to the power.

If not a first round pick… why move him on?

 

[sunny3193]

The same amount we'd have to pay to replace one.

I was thinking of the changing doors moment ex Melbourne, ex Fremantle and now current GWS FF when I posted that.
Bit different to ourselves, because we have one.
Would Melbourne offer something like their current #5 plus #15 plus 2024 #1 for Bing?
Would that work for GC knowing they’re getting a KPF for rats and mice this year?
And that they could solve their points issue for him and the other two academy kids with #15, plus give themselves #4 and #5 this year which they could on sell to 16 other clubs for near equivalent future picks, or trade for high grade players now?
That would almost be a perfect outcome for GC.
And for Melbourne too.

 

[RWB4life]

Last key defender left on the market isn’t he?

McKay rumoured to the Dons.

Zero Thatcher and Ratagulea to the power.

If not a first round pick… why move him on?

It also doesn't have to be a straight swap. Howard and a third to get a late first is still worth it given the shallowness of the draft

 

[Strahany]

Last key defender left on the market isn’t he?

McKay rumoured to the Dons.

Zero Thatcher and Ratagulea to the power.

If not a first round pick… why move him on?

Exactly.

Contracted player + he has not requested a trade = the upper hand in any trade negotiation.

 

[Strahany]

With Gresham allegedly only considering leaving for money, as opposed to not liking the club, that really puts us in a win/win situation. As others have said, the club has likely indicated that their offer will be within the realm of what would yield band 3 compensation.

If Gresham leaves, it’ll mean either pick 19 (band 2) or pick 13 (band 1), which are both favourable outcomes. If Gresham stays, it’ll mean he is on a very reasonable contract of likely no more than $600k which is also a great outcome.

It felt like Jade had checked out in the latter portion of the season, but then a switch seemingly flipped and he seemed fully committed over the final few rounds and last week. What I’m getting at, is that I imagine he would sustain that higher level of form should he re-sign, as he is no longer eyeing off leaving.

Perhaps a lower base salary with higher performance incentives are in order, considering he seems to rate himself quite highly. This would ensure his remuneration is commensurate to his output.

 

[stavro#4]

With Gresham allegedly only considering leaving for money, as opposed to not liking the club, that really puts us in a win/win situation. As others have said, the club has likely indicated that their offer will be within the realm of what would yield band 3 compensation.

If Gresham leaves, it’ll mean either pick 19 (band 2) or pick 13 (band 1), which are both favourable outcomes. If Gresham stays, it’ll mean he is on a very reasonable contract of likely no more than $600k which is also a great outcome.

It felt like Jade had checked out in the latter portion of the season, but then a switch seemingly flipped and he seemed fully committed over the final few rounds and last week. What I’m getting at, is that I imagine he would sustain that higher level of form should he re-sign, as he is no longer eyeing off leaving.

Perhaps a lower base salary with higher performance incentives are in order, considering he seems to rate himself quite highly. This would ensure his remuneration is commensurate to his output.

So then our dream scenario is Howard and Gresham leaving to Sydney and Essendon and us ending up with

Pick 11 (Sydney) Pick 12 (us) pick 13 (Gresham compo)

 

[SaintsSeptember]

That’s a good summary of it. For Gresh to leave someone will have to make an offer that gets us end of first round compo. If not, we keep him.

Amon went to the Hawks for around $650K , second round compo.
McStay $600K , same compensation. ( also Brandon Ellis back in 2019).
Previously , Joe Daniher $830K ish. Williams on about the same , both first round compensation.

So somewhere in between $650K and $830K is the end of first round compensaton.

The last one to trigger end of round 1 compensation was Lycett back in 2018. He was only on $600K , but pay has probably gone up since then.

If they offer Gresh around $700K we might be ok.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

So then our dream scenario is Howard and Gresham leaving to Sydney and Essendon and us ending up with

Pick 11 (Sydney) Pick 12 (us) pick 13 (Gresham compo)

Dreaming all right.

 

[Sun Ra]

So then our dream scenario is Howard and Gresham leaving to Sydney and Essendon and us ending up with

Pick 11 (Sydney) Pick 12 (us) pick 13 (Gresham compo)

Then trade the lot to the Eagles for pick 1.

 

[Dard Ball Get]

Then trade the lot to the Eagles for pick 1.

 

[gringo2011]

Would a club pay a 1st round pick for Howard?

We paid pick 12 and 18 plus a third rounder for Dougal, pick 10 and Ryder plus future 4th that wasn't used. I assume Ryder was just a salary dump because he was told that they'd be playing him in the SANFL and over 30 or that third rounder anyway. We basically paid a first rounder for Howard on much less exposed form and knowing that he was fringe at another club.


It's reminder about selling off players for picks too.

Howard was Bergman and Philp in the actual picks used. If we turn Gresham into another Philp it will be a huge set back. Toce had better be on his game too.