No Oppo Supporters 2024 AFL General Discussion

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Carlton are the team who worry me the most. They're still finding their feet and I think they can turn that around.
Good on ya Kirky for having a go. End of the day, we are all just casual, albeit passionate, observers of our great game. Each of us viewing from our own perspective, with our own biases, and each with something to add to the conversation.

i actually like the look of the Swannies. Given the game is little more than a series of 50/50 contests, the consistency of our boys to do better than break even, and even dominate, in said contests, over the full course of a game, has me feeling really positive about our chances. That across-the-ground strength also allows us to "carry" blokes that are not quite "up for it" on any given day for whatever reason. Then, of course, we have so many gamebreakers that stand up when challenged and find the weaknesses in opponents.

For mine, Carlton look our biggest challenge, especially with Walsh back in. They have many of the same characteristics as us, plus two consistent power forwards. Not so strong defensively so I think we have their measure if we can stymie their clearance work.

Geelong looked human last night. They have a very capable list and Scott has seemingly developed the younger guys to transition smoothly up to the level but, for mine, covering the retirement of Selwood means a lot more than finding somebody to pick up his 30 odd touches. Guthrie, Duncan et al, last night at least, seemed unable to establish the composed workmanlike efficiencies so prevalent in their successes. No doubt they will be working on that and I'm not writing them off at all.

Not seeing it in Melbourne. Midfield, minus Brayshaw, is pretty inconsistent, and take out May and Lever at one end, and Pickett and Fritsch at the other, and there is not a lot left that inspires fear to me.

Giants? Well I could never understand how they were installed as favourite earlier in the year. Good core no doubt, but quite a few flashy younger guys that struggle for consistency still. Midfield needs refreshing. Green trying to do it all himself, Cogs not what he was, Ward an aging soldier and Kelly, the most overrated player in the league in my view.

Agree on Port. Talented, exciting, but raw. Been the story since Hinkley's been there hmmm
Bombers... Yesterday was 7000 days since they won a final :D

My feels :)
I agree that Carlton are going to be a threat, but I'm not seeing that until they get a few more back. I think barring injury, we'll take them in a fortnight... but I am pretty happy we only play them once!

I really don't agree with Melbourne... Gawn for me is their key, he is an almighty presence in their team. Last time I looked they had pretty good depth, and I like the way Goodwin coaches.

And I certainly agree that you write off Geelong at your peril! If they stay fit, they'll be a presence, they're experienced and crafty, but I think we can take them...

However, while I know that Essendon haven't played finals in years, based on what I've seen so far, they'll break that drought this year... I can't see them grabbing a flag or making a prelim, but I would be surprised if they missed the eight. They'll cause some upsets throughout the season imo...
 

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I think people are over rating Carlton. Yes they have a long injury list but most are average players. Yes Saad will add pace but he is a poor defender. McGovern is probably the other.

The Blues top players are streets ahead of the bottom 6-8 running out each game. Even their top players have issues. Walsh gets a lot of th footy but is a poor kick. Weitering likes taking the second forward. Cripps is looking cooked and has never been great in defensive transition. Both KPFs are flakey.
 
I think people are over rating Carlton. Yes they have a long injury list but most are average players. Yes Saad will add pace but he is a poor defender. McGovern is probably the other.

The Blues top players are streets ahead of the bottom 6-8 running out each game. Even their top players have issues. Walsh gets a lot of th footy but is a poor kick. Weitering likes taking the second forward. Cripps is looking cooked and has never been great in defensive transition. Both KPFs are flakey.

Carlton have a block of games a year where it all clicks for them Walsh and Cripps win the ball at will McKay and Curnow clunk everything and they get multiple contributions from Owies and Cottrell.

Thats the dangerous aspect of their side just hope it doesnt happen when they play us :tearsofjoy:
 
Well done to you lot up there , have been critical of the attendances in Sydney for a long time , but this year averaging 37,738 great stuff
I know the story is that AFL fans go to games whereas Rugby League supporters tend to be TV watchers.

Now I don't follow RL but I saw this article on the ABC the other night;

Penrith Panthers captain Isaah Yeo says his side was taken off-guard by the small crowd who turned up to Stadium Australia for last night's NRL clash with South Sydney.

Just 8,155 fans were in attendance......that crowd figure is less than 10 per cent of Stadium Australia's official capacity of 83,500.

"They said there was 8,000 there tonight but there was probably half that"(said Yeo).


I understand South Sydney are currently a basketcase, but Penrith are Premiers.

A crowd of less than 8,000 is abysmal.

A double page spread in The Telegraph for the Derby, a dedicated AFL reporter from that paper, a crowd at the SCG of over 35K against the Suns in RD 6, excellent Swans support at the MCG as well and top of the ladder.

basketball kid.gif
 
I know the story is that AFL fans go to games whereas Rugby League supporters tend to be TV watchers.

Now I don't follow RL but I saw this article on the ABC the other night;

Penrith Panthers captain Isaah Yeo says his side was taken off-guard by the small crowd who turned up to Stadium Australia for last night's NRL clash with South Sydney.

Just 8,155 fans were in attendance......that crowd figure is less than 10 per cent of Stadium Australia's official capacity of 83,500.

"They said there was 8,000 there tonight but there was probably half that"(said Yeo).


I understand South Sydney are currently a basketcase, but Penrith are Premiers.

A crowd of less than 8,000 is abysmal.

A double page spread in The Telegraph for the Derby, a dedicated AFL reporter from that paper, a crowd at the SCG of over 35K against the Suns in RD 6, excellent Swans support at the MCG as well and top of the ladder.

View attachment 1980950
5th biggest attendance of the round , but 2 were at the
 
I know the story is that AFL fans go to games whereas Rugby League supporters tend to be TV watchers.

Now I don't follow RL but I saw this article on the ABC the other night;

Penrith Panthers captain Isaah Yeo says his side was taken off-guard by the small crowd who turned up to Stadium Australia for last night's NRL clash with South Sydney.

Just 8,155 fans were in attendance......that crowd figure is less than 10 per cent of Stadium Australia's official capacity of 83,500.

"They said there was 8,000 there tonight but there was probably half that"(said Yeo).


I understand South Sydney are currently a basketcase, but Penrith are Premiers.

A crowd of less than 8,000 is abysmal.

A double page spread in The Telegraph for the Derby, a dedicated AFL reporter from that paper, a crowd at the SCG of over 35K against the Suns in RD 6, excellent Swans support at the MCG as well and top of the ladder.

View attachment 1980950
My husband had to drive to Port Macquarie yesterday so he was listening to the NRL on the radio and they were praising the crowds for the huge turn out of 16k fans in the terrible weather!
 

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I know the story is that AFL fans go to games whereas Rugby League supporters tend to be TV watchers.

Now I don't follow RL but I saw this article on the ABC the other night;

Penrith Panthers captain Isaah Yeo says his side was taken off-guard by the small crowd who turned up to Stadium Australia for last night's NRL clash with South Sydney.

Just 8,155 fans were in attendance......that crowd figure is less than 10 per cent of Stadium Australia's official capacity of 83,500.

"They said there was 8,000 there tonight but there was probably half that"(said Yeo).


I understand South Sydney are currently a basketcase, but Penrith are Premiers.

A crowd of less than 8,000 is abysmal.

A double page spread in The Telegraph for the Derby, a dedicated AFL reporter from that paper, a crowd at the SCG of over 35K against the Suns in RD 6, excellent Swans support at the MCG as well and top of the ladder.

View attachment 1980950
South Sydney playing a "home" game at a barren Homebush miles away from their heartland while being stone cold motherless last. Lucky if anyone went, on a Thursday..
 
The next 6 rounds will take us to the end round 16 and the end of the bye rounds, so we'll be all back on an even footing. By then, the current eight should have all played each other, and we'll have a very clear idea of just how good we are...

Carlton - Melbourne, Sydney, Suns, Port, Essendon, Bye
Geelong - Port, Suns, Giants, Tigers, Sydney, Bye
Giants - Essendon, Doggies, Cats, Bye, Hawthorn, Port
Melbourne - Carlton, Eagles, St Kilda, Fremantle, Collingwood, Bye
Swans - Fremantle, Carlton, Doggies, Bye, Cats, Adelaide

In my view, all the teams above are are good enough on their day to beat each other, but none has yet proved themselves so outstanding as to be 'guaranteed' wins, so I'm giving them 4/5.

Trends:
Carlton
are a huge chance of being big improvers as half their playing list return from injury! Watch for them to climb the ladder over the next 6-10 weeks.
Geelong are a run of soft tissue injuries away from disaster imo. In addition, if you can stop Cameron and pile on the pressure, there are big issues with their ability to score. Individual brilliance has been keeping them on top, but...
Giants are suspect under significant pressure. Beat their contested game, pile on the pressure, and you have a serious chance of winning.
Melbourne are building in my opinion, and I'm expecting the to have a serious crack at the flag. Achilles: Max Gawn - If he goes down for more than a couple of weeks, they are in serious trouble.
Sydney continue to build into this season, and for me, Grundy and the back 6 are the key. Too many injuries in these areas and we could be severely impacted.

The Jokers in the Pack: Collingwood, Essendon, Port Adelaide

Collingwood
are a very, very good side who had a poor beginning to the season. On their day, they can beat anyone, but a lack of consistency has been an issue for them so far. They've defeated Brisbane, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Carlton; drawn with Essendon; and lost to the Giants, Sydney and St Kilda; and are sitting on 99%. They need to put the foot down now, and go on a run... and they are heading into the easiest part of their season: West Coast, Adelaide, Freemantle, the Doggies, Melbourne, North, bye. The Melbourne game will be interesting, but otherwise they should win them all and significantly boost their percentage, currently 99%. In the last part of the season, their poor season and that drawn game may come back to bite them...

Essendon are growing in confidence and stature under Scott, but their percentage is the lowest in the current 8 at 95%. So far they have defeated the Hawthorn, St Kilda, the Doggies, Adelaide, and West Coast; drawn with Collingwood; and lost to Sydney and Port Adelaide. They play: Giants, North, Tigers, Suns, Carlton, bye. For me, it's very hard to see them beating Carlton, but I reckon it's 50/50 whether they beat the giants, so I'm giving them 4/5 wins, and their consistency and ability to play to their system is still a bit sketchy, but they are growing on me and I don't count them out.

Port Adelaide for me are the hardest team to place, they seem to be all over the shop. Their stats look pretty good, and their average age is 24, but their average experience is only 70 games; with only 12 100+ gamers, and 21 having played less than 50 games. So, I'm thinking their ability to play to their system under pressure is still developing, and that is causing their inconsistency (a bit like us last year or the year before), and I can't see them making top 4. They've beat Eagles, Tigers, Essendon, Fremantle and St Kilda; and lost to Melbourne, Collingwood and Adelaide; and are sitting in sixth with a percentage of 113%. They play the Cats, Hawthorn, North, Carlton, bye, Giants; and I think they'll lose to Cats, Carlton & Giants.

So, at the end of round 16, and discounting injuries and depth (or lack thereof), I'm tipping the top 5 to be:
  1. Sydney
  2. Melbourne
  3. Geelong
  4. Carlton
  5. GWS
Disclaimer: I have never played the game, know nothing about most teams depth, and do not consistently watch all games... so take it with a pinch of salt and feel free to correct me where I'm wrong!

TL;DR: I think we're going pretty well, and expect that to continue for the next 6 weeks or so...
I agree with the 5 you've mentioned. I personally feel like the 3 teams capable of winning the flag are Sydney, Geelong and GWS.

Can't count out the reigning premiers but I think they'll be cooked by the end of the year.

Carlton are always a chance given some of their players wear green guernseys.

Melbourne haven't been able to recapture their flag winning form, they're a good side, but I can't see them going all the way.
 
1987 still?


Seriously though.
Its going to rain there Friday!

Winter is coming.

I'm aware the game is saturday.
That's good! We want it to rain there before the game as the ground is hard as a rock!

A good soaking the day before should help reduce injury
 
The next 6 rounds will take us to the end round 16 and the end of the bye rounds, so we'll be all back on an even footing. By then, the current eight should have all played each other, and we'll have a very clear idea of just how good we are...

Carlton - Melbourne, Sydney, Suns, Port, Essendon, Bye
Geelong - Port, Suns, Giants, Tigers, Sydney, Bye
Giants - Essendon, Doggies, Cats, Bye, Hawthorn, Port
Melbourne - Carlton, Eagles, St Kilda, Fremantle, Collingwood, Bye
Swans - Fremantle, Carlton, Doggies, Bye, Cats, Adelaide

In my view, all the teams above are are good enough on their day to beat each other, but none has yet proved themselves so outstanding as to be 'guaranteed' wins, so I'm giving them 4/5.

Trends:
Carlton
are a huge chance of being big improvers as half their playing list return from injury! Watch for them to climb the ladder over the next 6-10 weeks.
Geelong are a run of soft tissue injuries away from disaster imo. In addition, if you can stop Cameron and pile on the pressure, there are big issues with their ability to score. Individual brilliance has been keeping them on top, but...
Giants are suspect under significant pressure. Beat their contested game, pile on the pressure, and you have a serious chance of winning.
Melbourne are building in my opinion, and I'm expecting the to have a serious crack at the flag. Achilles: Max Gawn - If he goes down for more than a couple of weeks, they are in serious trouble.
Sydney continue to build into this season, and for me, Grundy and the back 6 are the key. Too many injuries in these areas and we could be severely impacted.

The Jokers in the Pack: Collingwood, Essendon, Port Adelaide

Collingwood
are a very, very good side who had a poor beginning to the season. On their day, they can beat anyone, but a lack of consistency has been an issue for them so far. They've defeated Brisbane, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Carlton; drawn with Essendon; and lost to the Giants, Sydney and St Kilda; and are sitting on 99%. They need to put the foot down now, and go on a run... and they are heading into the easiest part of their season: West Coast, Adelaide, Freemantle, the Doggies, Melbourne, North, bye. The Melbourne game will be interesting, but otherwise they should win them all and significantly boost their percentage, currently 99%. In the last part of the season, their poor season and that drawn game may come back to bite them...

Essendon are growing in confidence and stature under Scott, but their percentage is the lowest in the current 8 at 95%. So far they have defeated the Hawthorn, St Kilda, the Doggies, Adelaide, and West Coast; drawn with Collingwood; and lost to Sydney and Port Adelaide. They play: Giants, North, Tigers, Suns, Carlton, bye. For me, it's very hard to see them beating Carlton, but I reckon it's 50/50 whether they beat the giants, so I'm giving them 4/5 wins, and their consistency and ability to play to their system is still a bit sketchy, but they are growing on me and I don't count them out.

Port Adelaide for me are the hardest team to place, they seem to be all over the shop. Their stats look pretty good, and their average age is 24, but their average experience is only 70 games; with only 12 100+ gamers, and 21 having played less than 50 games. So, I'm thinking their ability to play to their system under pressure is still developing, and that is causing their inconsistency (a bit like us last year or the year before), and I can't see them making top 4. They've beat Eagles, Tigers, Essendon, Fremantle and St Kilda; and lost to Melbourne, Collingwood and Adelaide; and are sitting in sixth with a percentage of 113%. They play the Cats, Hawthorn, North, Carlton, bye, Giants; and I think they'll lose to Cats, Carlton & Giants.

So, at the end of round 16, and discounting injuries and depth (or lack thereof), I'm tipping the top 5 to be:
  1. Sydney
  2. Melbourne
  3. Geelong
  4. Carlton
  5. GWS
Disclaimer: I have never played the game, know nothing about most teams depth, and do not consistently watch all games... so take it with a pinch of salt and feel free to correct me where I'm wrong!

TL;DR: I think we're going pretty well, and expect that to continue for the next 6 weeks or so...

Enjoyed reading this prediction. Great work!

Agree with pretty much all you've said, we need to bring the pressure every week as other teams don't have as many quality ball users as us. We can exploit them with our turnover game.
 

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