2024 Ladder Predictions

[Schauermann]

Winner of Dees v Carlton will make top 4 imo.

Both are too good not to make finals.

1 point the difference in the end. Both on 24 point in the middle of the top 8. Both are still a pretty similar chance for top 4. And actually today's loser is better placed with better percentage.

3 teams above them will play the 3 teams below them this week as well. Interesting games. An upset there will change a lot on public perception who could be a top 4 contender.

PS With todays game all top 8 teams will have played each other this week. Interesting round.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Expected score has Bombers 1-7. That luck will turn at some point. I think the % is telling as well. I think they'll stay competitive all/most of the season and end up on 12/13 wins and either finish 9th or lose week 1 from 7th or 8th.

"expected score" is a complete crock of statistical garbage. If it was real almost the last 10+ seasons would be drastically different.

I generally agree though the tide will turn eventually, Essendon's % is a real issue. We completely dominate games like Hawthorn, Adelaide & West Coast, but we simply cannot put scores on the board when we dominate play, always let teams keep their nose it. If we can't do it against bad teams, we won't against the good ones you'd think.

I still think we will miss the 8 but generally happy with what he have dished up so far.

 

[Joao]

"expected score" is a complete crock of statistical garbage. If it was real almost the last 10+ seasons would be drastically different.

I generally agree though the tide will turn eventually, Essendon's % is a real issue. We completely dominate games like Hawthorn, Adelaide & West Coast, but we simply cannot put scores on the board when we dominate play, always let teams keep their nose it. If we can't do it against bad teams, we won't against the good ones you'd think.

I still think we will miss the 8 but generally happy with what he have dished up so far.

I'd never use expected score on its own, but I think along with the % it gives a general trend.

I think you have enough winnable games to make the 8 or at the very least be right in the mix come round 23/24. The draw will likely make your % irrelevant as well.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I'd never use expected score on its own, but I think along with the % it gives a general trend.

I think you have enough winnable games to make the 8 or at the very least be right in the mix come round 23/24. The draw will likely make your % irrelevant as well.

Not sure about that............ i think it needs far more nuance applied.

For example, during the Essendon v West Coast game it was something like 7.6 (Essendon) to 4.2 (West Coast) at one point. Out of those 6 points included several missed set shots that would normally be kicked. Unsure how it can be described as "Good Luck" that we won those games.

Almost exact similar instance to the Adelaide game also. dominated the game but just couldn't put it through big sticks.

Expected score really is garbage. And it rarely correlates to what actually occurs, even as a trend. Most top 4 ladder positons each year would drastically change if you even used expected scores.

 

[Joao]

Not sure about that............ i think it needs far more nuance applied.

For example, during the Essendon v West Coast game it was something like 7.6 (Essendon) to 4.2 (West Coast) at one point. Out of those 6 points included several missed set shots that would normally be kicked. Unsure how it can be described as "Good Luck" that we won those games.

Almost exact similar instance to the Adelaide game also. dominated the game but just couldn't put it through big sticks.

Expected score really is garbage. And it rarely correlates to what actually occurs, even as a trend. Most top 4 ladder positons each year would drastically change if you even used expected scores.

The eagles and crows games are the only two games where you had more scoring shots and I fully agree the balance of play was with you. I never argued against that. Fairly sure the Crows one is the one you win convincingly on expected score as well.

I'm very comfortable with my statements. The good news for Bombers fans is it doesn't matter what I think.

 

[My Tilly]

Both are still a pretty similar chance for top 4.

Carlton won't get near top four.
They will do just enough to scrape into the eight.

Melbourne will be within a chance of top four in the final round of the season though.

 

[Hippster]

Sydney
GWS
Carlton
Geelong
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Brisbane

Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Gold Coast
StKilda
Adelaide
Fremantle
Hawthorn
West Coast
Richmond
Kangaroos

 

[RUNVS]

Sydney need another 5 wins to be guaranteed a finals spot.

 

[BennyGFunk]

Carlton won't get near top four.
They will do just enough to scrape into the eight.

Melbourne will be within a chance of top four in the final round of the season though.

Carlton are from a perfect team but have some great points of difference and still improving. They’ve shown great resilience since 12 months back and take some big scalps. In fact beaten every contender at least once since last year..

Not afraid of playing any side, that said Sydney are the current no1 seed so next Friday will be telling..

 

[Worm4]

Carlton won't get near top four.
They will do just enough to scrape into the eight.

Melbourne will be within a chance of top four in the final round of the season though.

Mr predictability strikes again. Understand that you dont rate Carlton, but if they are as bad as you think, surely they have plenty of upside and improvement in them. They haven't exactly peaked yet.

 

[Defabs]

Collingwood will amazingly only be a game out of the top 4 and 1.5 games from second spot at the end of this round, Assuming of course they beat WCE. That would be 5.5 wins from their last 6 games.

Yet still most are putting the reigning premiers at finishing in the bottom part of the 8.

For mine this will likely be the final ladder:

Sydney
Melbourne
Collingwood
GWS
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Brisbane

Adelaide
Gold Coast
Essendon
Fremantle
St Kilda
Bulldogs
hawthorn
West coast
Richmond
NM

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Bombers playing finals I reckon.
Everyone so use to them falling away like Gold Coast that they now get ignored.

McKay is a monumental addition.
The first gorilla sized defender they've had since Hurley.

Still plenty of time for them to fall away.

The soufflé is rising - just wait for the flop.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Mr predictability strikes again. Understand that you dont rate Carlton, but if they are as bad as you think, surely they have plenty of upside and improvement in them. They haven't exactly peaked yet.

You’re wrong - he does rate Carlton.

In fact is a little scared.

That’s why he endlessly trolls us in threads that have nothing to do with the almighty cats.

We own property in his head & have rented it out to a band of carney’s.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

maybe, maybe not

Dogs won a flag from 6th. Essendon v Carlton in front of 95,000 on an elimination final is pretty juicy where anything could happen

Yes…Essendon will win the flag..

 

[Worm4]

Collingwood will amazingly only be a game out of the top 4 and 1.5 games from second spot at the end of this round, Assuming of course they beat WCE. That would be 5.5 wins from their last 6 games.

Yet still most are putting the reigning premiers at finishing in the bottom part of the 8.

Probably because they havent beaten any team of substance yet and any decent side like GWS or Sydney put them away comfortably

 

[Cleansweep17]

I think we will have the final top 8 once Pies push the Bombers out.

Sydney and GWS should both make top 4. Other 2 spots are up for grabs. I’m leaning towards Carlton and Dees.

 

[Vankri]

Probably because they havent beaten any team of substance yet and any decent side like GWS or Sydney put them away comfortably

So essentially your definition of team of substance is Sydney and GWS? Because the Pies have beaten Port, Brisbane and Carlton who are around us on the ladder and only played one team currently in bottom 4 (second one tomorrow).

My top 8 prediction at this stage:

1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. Port
6. Melbourne
7. Carlton
8. Brisbane

 

[Worm4]

So essentially your definition of team of substance is Sydney and GWS? Because the Pies have beaten Port, Brisbane and Carlton who are around us on the ladder and only played one team currently in bottom 4 (second one tomorrow).

My top 8 prediction at this stage:

1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. Port
6. Melbourne
7. Carlton
8. Brisbane

So how man wins get them to 3rd you think ?

 

[My Tilly]

Still plenty of time for them to fall away.

The soufflé is rising - just wait for the flop.

Yeh nah.
Better team than what you give em credit for.

Unlucky not to have picked up the win against Collingwood a couple weeks ago.
Finals looking likely.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Yeh nah.
Better team than what you give em credit for.

Unlucky not to have picked up the win against Collingwood a couple weeks ago.
Finals looking likely.

Just came here to say kudos on your Ess call. Looking very solid.

 

[My Tilly]

Just came here to say kudos on your Ess call. Looking very solid.

The past fortnight has completely shifted things. Collingwood all of a sudden may be right back in with the best opportunity to go back-to-back. So many teams are evenly matched.
Top four is going to be absolutely pivotal.

Geelong are certainties for finals but top four looks very shaky now.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Yeh nah.
Better team than what you give em credit for.

Unlucky not to have picked up the win against Collingwood a couple weeks ago.
Finals looking likely.

Haha - well timed.

We will see.

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood will amazingly only be a game out of the top 4 and 1.5 games from second spot at the end of this round, Assuming of course they beat WCE. That would be 5.5 wins from their last 6 games.

Indeed.

I loaded up on Collingwood at $4.20 to make the top 4 AFTER their win against Carlton on Thursday night.

Was ridiculous odds.

 

[BigVic]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	18	5	0	136.4%
2.	Sydney	18	5	0	125.2%
3.	Melbourne	16	7	0	119.1%
4.	Port Adelaide	15	8	0	123.7%
5.	Carlton	15	8	0	119.1%
6.	GWS	14	9	0	114.6%
7.	Collingwood	13	9	1	100.2%
8.	Essendon	13	9	1	93.2%
9.	Fremantle	11	12	0	101.5%
10.	Brisbane Lions	11	12	0	92.8%
11.	Adelaide	10	13	0	101.7%
12.	Gold Coast	10	13	0	92.1%
13.	Western Bulldogs	9	14	0	105.0%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	99.3%
15.	Hawthorn	9	14	0	86.9%
16.	West Coast	7	16	0	78.4%
17.	Richmond	5	18	0	78.7%
18.	North Melbourne	3	20	0	63.5%

QF1: GEELONG v Port Adelaide
QF2: SYDNEY v Melbourne
EF1: CARLTON v Essendon
EF2: GWS v COLLINGWOOD

SF1: Port Adelaide v CARLTON
SF2: Melbourne v COLLINGWOOD

PF1: GEELONG v Collingwood
PF2: SYDNEY v Carlton

GF: GEELONG v Sydney

 

[hammo24]

Essendon 3rd, now that is a ******* laugh