2024 Ladder Predictions

[Mr Meow]

It's outrageous that Geelong are still 2nd but could easily slip down to 8th soon if we keep dropping games.

2nd through 8th is a clusterf*ck and I'm all for it.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Wait. Worm4 had us below the Saints? We aren't a 100 year basket case.
Insulting.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Looking at the fixture, assuming Essendon remains somewhat consistent and other teams remain largely consistent, there really is no excuse for anything less than a top 6 finish.

The remaining fixture for Essendon can be divided into four blocks.

Going 4-1 in block 1 and at least 3-1 in block 3 is pretty realistic and that would have us on 13.5 wins and enough to make the 8 you'd expect, with the remaining games in block 2 & 4 then deciding where within the 8 we sit.

For people hoping for the traditional Essington experience, block 2 of back-to-back-to-back big games at the MCG in late June/early July will be your big hope. If Essendon get out of those three games with strong showings and a win or two then Essendon will be odds on for top 4.


Block 1

North Melbourne
Richmond
Gold Coast (A)
Carlton
Bye
West Coast


Block 2

Geelong
Collingwood
Melbourne


Block 3

Adelaide
St Kilda
Fremantle
Gold Coast


Block 4

Sydney
Brisbane (A)

I see 7 wins but if they gain one from a top 8 side they will lose another.

I still think they will be touch and go

 

[TheUnicorn]

It's outrageous that Geelong are still 2nd but could easily slip down to 8th soon if we keep dropping games.

2nd through 8th is a clusterf*ck and I'm all for it.

Could we see another 2016?

 

[RUNVS]

Could we see another 2016?

The UK can't vote to leave the EU again.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Looking at the fixture, assuming Essendon remains somewhat consistent and other teams remain largely consistent, there really is no excuse for anything less than a top 6 finish.

The remaining fixture for Essendon can be divided into four blocks.

Going 4-1 in block 1 and at least 3-1 in block 3 is pretty realistic and that would have us on 13.5 wins and enough to make the 8 you'd expect, with the remaining games in block 2 & 4 then deciding where within the 8 we sit.

For people hoping for the traditional Essington experience, block 2 of back-to-back-to-back big games at the MCG in late June/early July will be your big hope. If Essendon get out of those three games with strong showings and a win or two then Essendon will be odds on for top 4.


Block 1

North Melbourne
Richmond
Gold Coast (A)
Carlton
Bye
West Coast


Block 2

Geelong
Collingwood
Melbourne


Block 3

Adelaide
St Kilda
Fremantle
Gold Coast


Block 4

Sydney
Brisbane (A)

We leave Melbourne twice for the rest of the year.

if dont finish top 6, or even really top 4. We will have shat the bed yet again.

if we dont utterly demolish North (Line = 46 points) and Richmond (Line = 36 points) in the next 2 weeks, it will tell you all you need to know.

 

[carnthedons]

Top 4 you say? So we can lose 2 finals in one year?

 

[TheUnicorn]

The ladder is very close this season wouldn't be hard to miss the top 8 if you're even a little off.
2-3 wins could be the difference between top 4 and missing the 8 entirely!

 

[blitzer]

Top 4 you say? So we can lose 2 finals in one year?

That might happen but to be honest the reason why our finals record has been so hopeless the last 2 decades is because we were never all that good in any of the years we made finals. We were always scraping in as the 8th team with ordinary % and 11 or 12 wins. So its no surprise we never ended up winning any of the finals we played in (plus ended up playing interstate a lot of the time).

So if we somehow finished top 4 we would be a miles better chance to win a final than in any of our recent opportunities.

 

[Mr Meow]

The ladder is very close this season wouldn't be hard to miss the top 8 if you're even a little off.
2-3 wins could be the difference between top 4 and missing the 8 entirely!

As a little sidenote the whole "who have you beaten?" argument looks flaky.

Why is that? Well 2 wins separate 2nd from 11th and we are almost halfway through the season. You can throw a blanket over those teams really depending on whether they bring their best or not in a given game. Then elements of luck and the results of close matches between them can shift a team anywhere between 2nd and 11th at this point.

Even Brisbane and Adelaide you could say are a little unfortunate to be where they are on the ladder, and on their day remain tough sides to beat.

The % discrepancy of sides 2nd through 13th also reflects how even the comp is this year. There really isn't much in it.

You probably have to go to St Kilda (14th) and below before you could genuinely accuse victories of being "soft kills". A lot simply depends on when you play sides.

 

[Angus Young]

Sydney
Melbourne
Geelong
Port
Carlton
Brisbane
Collingwood
GWS

Essendon

 

[HirdyLannister]

Sydney
Melbourne
Geelong
Port
Carlton
Brisbane
Collingwood
GWS

Essendon

 

[JayJ20]

Looking at the fixture, assuming Essendon remains somewhat consistent and other teams remain largely consistent, there really is no excuse for anything less than a top 6 finish.

The remaining fixture for Essendon can be divided into four blocks.

Going 4-1 in block 1 and at least 3-1 in block 3 is pretty realistic and that would have us on 13.5 wins and enough to make the 8 you'd expect, with the remaining games in block 2 & 4 then deciding where within the 8 we sit.

For people hoping for the traditional Essington experience, block 2 of back-to-back-to-back big games at the MCG in late June/early July will be your big hope. If Essendon get out of those three games with strong showings and a win or two then Essendon will be odds on for top 4.


Block 1

North Melbourne
Richmond
Gold Coast (A)
Carlton
Bye
West Coast


Block 2

Geelong
Collingwood
Melbourne


Block 3

Adelaide
St Kilda
Fremantle
Gold Coast


Block 4

Sydney
Brisbane (A)

Based on current form, block 1 should be at least 3-2, possibly 4-1. Looks like we may lose to Gold Coast and possibly Carlton. We'd be 9-4-1 or 10-3-1. Let's go with 3-2 to be conservative.

Block 2 is difficult, but I think we can win at least one. Takes us to 10-6-1.

Block 3 with Adelaide, Fremantle and Gold Coast at home should be all wins. Takes us to 14-6-1. Although Fremantle is 50-50.

Block 4 is tough. I think we can beat Sydney but we're not beating Brisbane there. Lose both and we'd be 14-8-1, which should still earn us a home final.

I think however we can beat Sydney here on current form so we can go 15-7-1. Might not be enough for top 4 given Collingwood have a draw, but that would certainly be enough for a top 6 spot.

We could also crash and burn and finish out of the 8 but let's think positively.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The weekend exposed a number of sides and raises doubts about how genuine a challenger they may be

Geelong
Carlton
GWS
Melbourne

 

[Mr Meow]

The weekend exposed a number of sides and raises doubts about how genuine a challenger they may be

Geelong
Carlton
GWS
Melbourne

I don't see how Port escape scrutiny. They did well to come back but an exhausted, bottom 4 Hawthorn opened the door for them in a game played at Adelaide.

Which is objectively worse than Geelong coming back but failing just short against Port a week before (as they're a much better side than Hawthorn).

 

[HirdsTheWord]

go back and look at the start of this thread. 99% of people had us 12th to last.

the hate will forever flow.

 

[Mr Meow]

go back and look at the start of this thread. 99% of people had us 12th to last.

the hate will forever flow.

It wasn't personal. I was just being lazy. I like the Bombers being up and about.

The poor finishes to last season undoubtedly made people put Geelong and Essendon fairly low on their 2024 projections.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

It wasn't personal. I was just being lazy. I like the Bombers being up and about.

The poor finishes to last season undoubtedly made people put Geelong and Essendon fairly low on their 2024 projections.

i dont mind.

but when the eventual "Essendon bottled it" posts arrive you can ask what their expectations were at the start of the year. And in 99% of cases, we will have exceeded them.

 

[Cuzz09]

Across 2 weeks Port have been on the right side.

2 mins more last week and 2 mins less this week they're actually 11th

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cleansweep17]

A Bombers/Carlton flag would be wild. The Collingwood melts would be insane.

 

[Pistol Night]

A Bombers/Carlton flag would be wild. The Collingwood melts would be insane.

Would you guys still melt about umpires in that scenario?

 

[Cleansweep17]

Would you guys still melt about umpires in that scenario?

Yeah, that’s how you won the granny last year.

 

[Pistol Night]

Yeah, that’s how you won the granny last year.

That's it. Hopefully we pay them enough this year too

 

[00Stinger]

Sydney look miles above any other team

Still have Mills and Parker (maybe) to come back in

 

[Pistol Night]

Sydney look miles above any other team

Still have Mills and Parker (maybe) to come back in

Agree. But it is mid-May so declaring them now is crazy talk