List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

[Mostyn]

Totally understand that viewpoint, however Swans are reportedly only offering 550. Either their cap is filled to the absolute brim or they don’t anticipate that great a difference in salary cap.

A quick google has the salary cap jumping from $13.5m to $17.7m next year.

Sydney has genuine cap issues with the number of premium players they're re-signing.

 

[Mostyn]

I don’t think 6x$800 for Hayward would be good business by us. If we’ve got the cap space we simply have to spend it on a gun midfielder.

Cap space isn't the issue. Players choosing to leave is.

Hayward is a good target, because there's a genuine difference between our offer and his club's.

McCluggage though will get $1.2m from everyone in the mix, including the Lions. We can't outbid.

 

[Mostyn]

Errol Gulden or Max Holmes given hindsight. That draft was peak Ogilvy, 4 top 30 picks and we also got Pedlar, Cook and Berry.

How are you getting Gulden?

 

[Mostyn]

They most likely wouldn't. But they could match our bid purely to force a trade, so they can get a few picks further up the board.

Then again, is the draft actually all that strong this year? They might not see it as worthwhile if the talentboard isn't strong.

They can't match the bid unless they actually have the cap space. They're not doing it just to play silly buggers, have all their capital tied up in a player they don't want and who they may get forced to keep.

 

[spenze]

I'd probably take the journos reports with a grain of salt.

Unless you like jumping at shadows, if so, carry on

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Cap space isn't the issue. Players choosing to leave is.

Hayward is a good target, because there's a genuine difference between our offer and his club's.

McCluggage though will get $1.2m from everyone in the mix, including the Lions. We can't outbid.

I still firmly think McCluggage will go to a big Vic glamour club like Pies/Ess/Geelong.

Alot of talk that St Kilda will throw monster coin at LDU as well.

 

[1970crow]

Rachele at 6 is at par or above. Tracking well compared to Rozee at same career stage - and roughly same time forward mid as he was then


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Statistically Rach might be tracking ok, but he doesn't look like his ceiling is anywhere near Rozee's.

 

[1970crow]

Perhaps some Swans fans can shed some light on why Hayward is their whipping boy. 800k/6 years for a whipping boy seems like a bad list strategy to me .


“But, but he South Australian”.

Get a bloody midfielder ffs.

With free agency acquisitions it's not one or the other, we can have both. Unless we've stuffed our cap, which would be hard to believe.

 

[mr.sheen]

For those who haven’t followed Hayward or don’t know much about him—
Medium sized forward at 186cm or so, great in the air and equally good below knees, provides a lot of forward pressure off the ball, having a career year this year and appears to be peaking. Is Sydney’s leading goal kicker so far in 2024 (19). Whether he maintains this form yet to be seen, but as a 25 year old he’s at the ripe age to enter his golden window. Even on his “quiet” games, he contributes a fair bit defensive which is why he may have had whipping boy status in the past as those roles go under appreciated; this year he’s enjoyed having more freedom+supply with Heeney moving up the field and hence resulting in goals.

At the moment the crows do not have this type of player on their list, and immediately he’s an upgrade on whenever keayes plays forward, upgrade on Rachele when he’s forward (hence allowing him more midfield time where it’s becoming increasingly obvious where he’s going to end up), better in the air and better kick than pedlar (who also will eventually move into the middle). Basically is the perfect complimenting medium 3rd forward who can also apply forward pressure and make those third tall free defenders that usually carve the crows up accountable. So seems a great fit right? The question however, is what welsh turns into, who admittedly plays a little bit taller, and how that affects the look of the forward line post Tex.

Re: money, much like the cost of petrol I think everyone needs to reset expectations on what players are being paid with an increase in caps and average contracts going up. 500-600k is the new 300k average. We aren’t going to be seeing less than a dollar unleaded 95 here on in, folks.

Also as with everyone else I agree that the main focus as always should be big bodied in-out midfielders to compliment who we have already (Dawson is one, need at least another couple from somewhere).

 

[rabidcrow]

I don’t think Rankine Dawson etc are on that coin

There’s going to be a lot of renegotiation demands if a medium talent is get big money

It might be different if he was actually good

Likely those key guys are on percentage of cap deals so their deal rises when the cap does (so when cap goes up 30% next year they get that on their deal)
I would hope - and feel like I read somewhere - that Essendon West Coast and Adelaide had done quite well in that area to create more space


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[rabidcrow]

Statistically Rach might be tracking ok, but he doesn't look like his ceiling is anywhere near Rozee's.

That’s fair to say with Rozee now. Go back on here a few of years ago and Rozee was going to be a bust - too soft etc

There isn’t anything to suggest Rachele can’t become a 23-27 touch per game player. And that would put him tight in the mix


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[NSolis]

Pretty keen on Hayward given that our forward line will need to transition a bit in the next couple of years as Walker retires, Thilthorpe finds his role and Rankine/Rachele presumably continue to spend more time in the midfield.

Cost aside, he seems like a very useful pickup.

 

[Carn The Texan]

Love the look of that, though I think Perryman (UFA) would be more likely than Clug (RFA)

For half a second I got excited that famous Handball Artist John Klug has a father-son running around that I didnt know about.

 

[MRB37]

Money is meh given the reported increase, but wouldn't be massively keen on the 6 year bit for a guy who'll be 26 when he signs it.

Can understand the fact he's restricted, so they'll be putting a deal together that the Swans have no desire to match, but one that'll probably net them a decent compo pick as well. You'd hope we could front load that deal so he's on minimum chips in the last 2 years.

 

[119others]

Hayward is a classy talented player, the only knock is inconsistent output.

Thats an upgrade on what we have which is a few average to poor players, with consistent average output, of which he will be replacing one of them.

If we can get his output up with an increase in role and responsibility, then he will be well worth the money. If we can’t we’ve still got a good better player who we’ve overpaid, who cares, we’ve got the money.

Stay away from the investment world old mate

With where our list is at we need to nail EVERY single large ($ spent and/or picks outplayed) inbound player. We can’t afford to #### up a few here and materially overpay. My view on Hayward, that’s a helluva lot of $ on a player unlikely to be top 75-100 in the league consistently (would he be a top 5 player for us as Rankine and a Dawson clearly are?) when we have clearly more glaring needs and also have a somewhat similar player (leading mobile 3rd tall) also as a fait accompli joining us in this years draft.

Would rank behind any of the elite mid options (eg I would rather pay 1.25m for McC for 6 years) or use draft collateral to make a massive offer to a game changing mid. Only if bereft of all other options - Reidy should have a decent read of things shortly - do we proceed with Hayward at that price.

Aren't you glad we didn’t pick up Petty last year on 800 x 5 whilst giving up a first rounder for starters?

 

[George Kramer]

Stay away from the investment world old mate

With where our list is at we need to nail EVERY single large ($ spent and/or picks outplayed) inbound player. We can’t afford to #### up a few here and materially overpay. My view on Hayward, that’s a helluva lot of $ on a player unlikely to be top 75-100 in the league consistently (would he be a top 5 player for us as Rankine and a Dawson clearly are?) when we have clearly more glaring needs and also have a somewhat similar player (leading mobile 3rd tall) also as a fait accompli joining us in this years draft.

Would rank behind any of the elite mid options (eg I would rather pay 1.25m for McC for 6 years) or use draft collateral to make a massive offer to a game changing mid. Only if bereft of all other options - Reidy should have a decent read of things shortly - do we proceed with Hayward at that price.

Aren't you glad we didn’t pick up Petty last year on 800 x 5 whilst giving up a first rounder for starters?

We can afford to over pay because we have heaps of cap space, plus we will lose some experienced players on decent coin soon.

The cap has increased 30% hasn’t it? $800k next year isnt $800k last year.

We need quality players, he’s above average or elite in most areas.

To attract players you have to overpay if you’re us, a side who hasn’t made finals for 5 years, thanks Nicks

As for going after a high quality mid, 100% make it you’re priority, what do you think the chances of that happening?

The contract for Petty isn’t a concern if he was a free agent and cost us no draft capital as he’s a quality defender. Giving up 2 firsts would have been the issue.

 

[Crow till I die]

Stay away from the investment world old mate

With where our list is at we need to nail EVERY single large ($ spent and/or picks outplayed) inbound player. We can’t afford to #### up a few here and materially overpay. My view on Hayward, that’s a helluva lot of $ on a player unlikely to be top 75-100 in the league consistently (would he be a top 5 player for us as Rankine and a Dawson clearly are?) when we have clearly more glaring needs and also have a somewhat similar player (leading mobile 3rd tall) also as a fait accompli joining us in this years draft.

Would rank behind any of the elite mid options (eg I would rather pay 1.25m for McC for 6 years) or use draft collateral to make a massive offer to a game changing mid. Only if bereft of all other options - Reidy should have a decent read of things shortly - do we proceed with Hayward at that price.

Aren't you glad we didn’t pick up Petty last year on 800 x 5 whilst giving up a first rounder for starters?

You bet most of us are..but its not comparing apples for apples. Hayward helps us structurally in that he will free up Rankine to become a primary mid and also allow Rachele more time in there whilst remaining a real threat in our forward half himself. We have Murray coming back, Keane, Butts and Worrell (although now injured for a while) so Petty was no need in our Defence. He is also not a proven forward and we already have Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Welsh coming in and a few high quality small forwards and Tex is still here and may be here for another year next year the way he is rolling. So not a need structurally for us up forward either.

If getting Hayward allows Rankine to get the 70-80% midfield time moving forward whilst maintaining a potent forward line, he is well worth poaching and for no draft capital it then allows us to still target (maybe by bundling picks up) a quality mid via trade or draft.

 

[119others]

The way I see the expected value of a pick is pretty much the same as their number. Pick 1 should be your best player. Pick 22 should be about the final player selected in your final 22. Second rounders are depth. Fog being pick 12 seems about right, roughly the 12th best player on your list. He'd definitely be in every teams first 22 imo, or thereabouts at a minimum.

Ok but what about all the picks (majority) taken AFTER pick 22? The above doesn’t make any sense

 

[119others]

We can afford to over pay because we have heaps of cap space, plus we will lose some experienced players on decent coin soon.

The cap has increased 30% hasn’t it? $800k next year isnt $800k last year.

We need quality players, he’s above average or elite in most areas.

To attract players you have to overpay if you’re us, a side who hasn’t made finals for 5 years, thanks Nicks

As for going after a high quality mid, 100% make it you’re priority, what do you think the chances of that happening?

The contract for Petty isn’t a concern if he was a free agent and cost us no draft capital as he’s a quality defender. Giving up 2 firsts would have been the issue.

Across his career which of the normal KPIs for his role is he elite at? Genuine question and I havent researched but averaging 10 possessions, a goalish per game and is 8-10th for score involvements for a mid sized forward doesn’t equal 800-850k in my view. If Pedlar comes good, Rankine (after his initial 3 year contract wasn’t it?) , TT! Etc - are they going to be asking for 1-1.5m based on an average player getting huge money?

He isn’t the difference maker like a Rankine or Dawson - both which we need to acknowledge are exceptional inbound trades for the club as probably our 2 best players - in fact, he won’t be too 5 or possibly top 10 in our team

 

[119others]

You bet most of us are..but its not comparing apples for apples. Hayward helps us structurally in that he will free up Rankine to become a primary mid and also allow Rachele more time in there whilst remaining a real threat in our forward half himself. We have Murray coming back, Keane, Butts and Worrell (although now injured for a while) so Petty was no need in our Defence. He is also not a proven forward and we already have Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Welsh coming in and a few high quality small forwards and Tex is still here and may be here for another year next year the way he is rolling. So not a need structurally for us up forward either.

If getting Hayward allows Rankine to get the 70-80% midfield time moving forward whilst maintaining a potent forward line, he is well worth poaching and for no draft capital it then allows us to still target (maybe by bundling picks up) a quality mid via trade or draft.

I get the structural thing but surely you don’t pay an average player 800-850k just for that reason? I think Pedlar will ultimately be a much better player than Hayward in a similar position.

 

[ABAB]

Stay away from the investment world old mate

With where our list is at we need to nail EVERY single large ($ spent and/or picks outplayed) inbound player. We can’t afford to #### up a few here and materially overpay. My view on Hayward, that’s a helluva lot of $ on a player unlikely to be top 75-100 in the league consistently (would he be a top 5 player for us as Rankine and a Dawson clearly are?) when we have clearly more glaring needs and also have a somewhat similar player (leading mobile 3rd tall) also as a fait accompli joining us in this years draft.

Would rank behind any of the elite mid options (eg I would rather pay 1.25m for McC for 6 years) or use draft collateral to make a massive offer to a game changing mid. Only if bereft of all other options - Reidy should have a decent read of things shortly - do we proceed with Hayward at that price.

Aren't you glad we didn’t pick up Petty last year on 800 x 5 whilst giving up a first rounder for starters?

Those on $600K will be on $800K, those on $800K will be on $1M and those on $1M will be on $1.2M. Hayward is just getting on the queue first and supposedly Carlton offer him the same amount but less years? Sydney offer him $550K which is very strange given the significant CPA increase so are trying to low ball him and think he is only worth $450K now before the CPA increase. You always need to offer more for FA players to make them leave and not cost the club any draft capital, he is probably around a $500K player so we are offering $100K more to leave and 6 years.

 

[Crow till I die]

I get the structural thing but surely you don’t pay an average player 800-850k just for that reason? I think Pedlar will ultimately be a much better player than Hayward in a similar position.

Is hayward just ho hum though? select his 2024 stats and see

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[Danger in Texas]

I’d imagine it’s a (roughly) 5mil over 6 year deal FWIW, front loaded in the first couple of years while we have Dawson on good money (IIRC he’s contracted to 2026)

If you pay Hayward 1.1mil over the first two seasons of his deal, you’re then paying him 700k a year over the next four, which is a lot more reasonable

 

[George Kramer]

Across his career which of the normal KPIs for his role is he elite at? Genuine question and I havent researched but averaging 10 possessions, a goalish per game and is 8-10th for score involvements for a mid sized forward doesn’t equal 800-850k in my view. If Pedlar comes good, Rankine (after his initial 3 year contract wasn’t it?) , TT! Etc - are they going to be asking for 1-1.5m based on an average player getting huge money?

He isn’t the difference maker like a Rankine or Dawson - both which we need to acknowledge are exceptional inbound trades for the club as probably our 2 best players - in fact, he won’t be too 5 or possibly top 10 in our team

In his career he’s above average marks, tackles, goals. He’s added kicks this year and elite for goals. It’s also just not stats with Hayward, his disposals have impact, he makes things happen.

I think you’re not taking into account the increase in cap and thinking old money, $800k isn’t what it once was. I also believe we will front load it big time so when these players come out of the contract the impact won’t be as great.

Plus we would have massive cap space, just look at our list profile and who we’ve been targeting in.

 

[NSolis]

For reference 800k after the cap increase would be equivalent to about $610k beforehand as a percentage of the cap (4.52%). Maybe it can be frontloaded a bit while we have extra money noting that some of our stars will be on new deals in a few years time.

Not that crazy.