Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Coops93]

Still a massive advantage to have access to these players first. If they didn't most would have been snapped up by other clubs

What is does is allows them to lose good players but then keep topping up with real quality. GWS has done this for years

It's not a guarantee of success but it's a definite advantage

If they didn't they likely wouldn't be first round picks, as without the academy this talent wouldn't be where it is. Some may not have even tried to make AFL level - Patterson for example.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I also think NM won't bid, but WB could... is Ison someone who fits a list need for the Dogs, or who else would be more likely...?

Dogs list needs a KPD

 

[Stamos]

If they didn't they likely wouldn't be first round picks, as without the academy this talent wouldn't be where it is. Some may not have even tried to make AFL level - Patterson for example.

The critics with puddle depth analysis love to ignore this.

 

[reubsblues]

I heard Cody Walker did his ACL out for all next yr so bid want be till late in the first round

 

[bradfisher14]

I heard Cody Walker did his ACL out for all next yr so bid want be till late in the first round

I can see what you're trying to do here, but this aint funny. Don't scare me like that ever again please.

 

[Opium]

The academies are a tough one. I was talking to someone yesterday whose son is in the Lions academy at under 15 level. There are 60 kids in the program. I’ve seen this guy’s son play. The kid is a gun. He’s bracketed in the 16-30 group out of the 60 boys in the pool. There is some serious talent coming through if there are 15 kids better than him.

But if you are considering the overall health of AFL football, what do you do about it? Take the academies away from the self interest of the Lions and the Suns and Queensland football regresses. And it is needed as a football factory, with all of WA, SA, TAS, and even Victoria having lulls in production over the past decade. I’m just not sure what the solution is.

These clubs getting access to the best 60 kids is defintely an unfair advantage. Brisbane have won 2 and played in the past 3 grand finals and are still topping up with high end talent.

 

[dangertroy]

I can see what you're trying to do here, but this aint funny. Don't scare me like that ever again please.

100%.

I’d rather match a bid at pick 1 because he’s had a great draft year than him miss a year of development.

 

[Sector 7G]

Stark difference in how CD operates vs Brad Lloyd.
Reckon I've seen Chris in more media in the short time he's been with us than Brad over his whole Carlton career...

The key difference is that CD doesn't talk giberish in front of the camera. Never felt reassured that Lloyd knew what he was doing.

 

[tarczonandjane]

These clubs getting access to the best 60 kids is defintely an unfair advantage. Brisbane have won the played in the past 3 grand finals and are still topping up with high end talent.

No argument about the advantage, Opium. But it is a growth region and for the good of the game it can’t be allowed to regress. So how do you maintain the health of the game in southeast Queensland if the academies are disbanded?

 

[Blue__Balls]

it’s not what we gained but what we lost. Outside of three best 18, we also traded away nearly all our second rounders (Charlie trade and Hawthorn pick swap). That is where I believe we could have done better.

Cool. But if those other trades don't get done without those picks then it doesn't help us.

 

[dangertroy]

The academies are a tough one. I was talking to someone yesterday whose son is in the Lions academy at under 15 level. There are 60 kids in the program. I’ve seen this guy’s son play. The kid is a gun. He’s bracketed in the 16-30 group out of the 60 boys in the pool. There is some serious talent coming through if there are 15 kids better than him.

But if you are considering the overall health of AFL football, what do you do about it? Take the academies away from the self interest of the Lions and the Suns and Queensland football regresses. And it is needed as a football factory, with all of WA, SA, TAS, and even Victoria having lulls in production over the past decade. I’m just not sure what the solution is.

The only real solution I can see if to get rid of the discounts for academies and father sons. Having access to the player is reward enough - shouldn’t need a discount on the market rate. I’d imagine thats what the AFL is driving towards - cut it to 10% this year and abolish it in a few years. We’re in the transition period now.

I probably have a bit of bias towards academies as a Tasmanian though - we badly need an academy here to help kids get into the sport and develop through their draft years.

 

[goreds]

If they didn't they likely wouldn't be first round picks, as without the academy this talent wouldn't be where it is. Some may not have even tried to make AFL level - Patterson for example.

Such an important post.

Up here in Syd, the Swans have a squad of 14/15 year-old's on the radar which are elite talents at multiple sports, usually league and or union or great swimmers, which would only be playing AFL if they lived in Vic. The challenge up here is to keep them in the system long enough for them to turn the comer and show some real promise.

They do a magnificent job up here, even more so GWS, that they deserve the right to be able to draft these players. If the Vic teams put half as much effort into the juniors as the northern states do, the AFL would be a MUCH stronger competition.

With R360 beginning to turn some heads up here, I fear that we could lose a generation of possible AFL players back to League and Union.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The academies are a tough one. I was talking to someone yesterday whose son is in the Lions academy at under 15 level. There are 60 kids in the program. I’ve seen this guy’s son play. The kid is a gun. He’s bracketed in the 16-30 group out of the 60 boys in the pool. There is some serious talent coming through if there are 15 kids better than him.

But if you are considering the overall health of AFL football, what do you do about it? Take the academies away from the self interest of the Lions and the Suns and Queensland football regresses. And it is needed as a football factory, with all of WA, SA, TAS, and even Victoria having lulls in production over the past decade. I’m just not sure what the solution is.

Allow the other states to have these academies as well.. They work, why would you take it away, but give the Vic, WA & SA clubs zones they can pull from. Say North could have the entire NT, imagine what that would do for indigenous development.

 

[BluStreak]

This is just my opinion,
I believe that the academies are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
My concern is that F/S are being categorised as the same, which they are not. As mentioned the academies have 40-60 players at any stage in any year. They produce 4-10 players every draft. How many F/S every draft? 2-4.
I believe that the discount should be different (as in more) for those teams finishing below 8.
Also F/S should not be considered as NGA as that is not what the NGA is supposed to generate.

 

[azlou]

Na was ordinary (& he’s been poorly advised).

The task was simply to name a kid that you think could go #1. It was a way of showing respect to your fellow draftees. To nominate himself simply to try and radiate some manufactured ‘self confidence’ was cringe and he’s come across as a massive **** given he’s not even drafted yet.

I don’t want to draft a kid that can’t read the room as easily as that.

I can see him ignoring his teammate who kicked him the ball stare to the heavens in a hulkamania pose like an avenger who just saved the universe.Ala Charly bugger that

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Someone help convince me on NHH .. I just don’t see it from my limited viewing.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Such an important post.

Up here in Syd, the Swans have a squad of 14/15 year-old's on the radar which are elite talents at multiple sports, usually league and or union or great swimmers, which would only be playing AFL if they lived in Vic. The challenge up here is to keep them in the system long enough for them to turn the comer and show some real promise.

They do a magnificent job up here, even more so GWS, that they deserve the right to be able to draft these players. If the Vic teams put half as much effort into the juniors as the northern states do, the AFL would be a MUCH stronger competition.

With R360 beginning to turn some heads up here, I fear that we could lose a generation of possible AFL players back to League and Union.

I think its evidence that AFL clubs develop young talent significantly better then AFL pathways. Particularly with the carrot of being able to match bids.

The AFL needs this, particularly if they want to keep adding clubs like Tassie and diluting the talent pool.

 

[Stamos]

The only real solution I can see if to get rid of the discounts for academies and father sons. Having access to the player is reward enough - shouldn’t need a discount on the market rate. I’d imagine thats what the AFL is driving towards - cut it to 10% this year and abolish it in a few years. We’re in the transition period now.

The "discount" is built into the mathematics of the DVI, so that clubs can match bids.
It's not a problem, as long as the DVI is set correctly.

It's hard to tell if the current DVI is correct, but it's a massive improvement on what we've had for the last 10 years.

 

[Sector 7G]

I get the argument about Gold Coast, but I'm a bit more sympathetic. They've toiled up there for over a decade now, and whatever talent they developed has walked out the door at the first opportunity. I find Richmond's complaints to be especially ironic given they picked up Tom Lynch when he was captain of the club.

So now against all odds they have managed to put together a good crop of local youngsters. They've grown bananas in the desert. And after feasting off Suns players for a decade, now the other clubs are jealous? Of a club that only made finals for the first time this year?

The issue is with the system, not the Suns. Even then you have to credit them with developing four top 20 talents, a couple of whom they basically poached from other sports.

It is not really growing bananas in the desert. GC Academy is now a stronger draft pool than WA, SA and Vic Country and only getting stronger. They have exclusive access.

 

[SurreyBlue]

This is just my opinion,
I believe that the academies are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
My concern is that F/S are being categorised as the same, which they are not. As mentioned the academies have 40-60 players at any stage in any year. They produce 4-10 players every draft. How many F/S every draft? 2-4.
I believe that the discount should be different (as in more) for those teams finishing below 8.
Also F/S should not be considered as NGA as that is not what the NGA is supposed to generate.

Great post.

The only bits I would add, the AFL need to make sure, NGA players aren’t ex-afl players sons or daughters and all Acadamy picks are genuine, and there is no by play.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

I think its evidence that AFL clubs develop young talent significantly better then AFL pathways. Particularly with the carrot of being able to match bids.

The AFL needs this, particularly if they want to keep adding clubs like Tassie and diluting the talent pool.

Spot on, the AFL need to make the talent better and have a clear model that works.. restricting it to just the northern states is 'dumb' in my view.. Let the Vic clubs develop their own academies In Vic the private schools are doing a better job at developing talent than any AFL pathways program.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Personally I think we need to go tall if we get a natural pick at 28.

Preference would be Ludowyke then Hetherton and then Emmett based on very limited viewing.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Personally I think we need to go tall if we get a natural pick at 28.

Preference would be Ludowyke then Hetherton and then Emmett based on very limited viewing.

Absolutely!

 

[MileHigh]

So if pick 26 is worth 729 and north bids on -10% that = 656.1 and our pick 28 is worth 677 so at this stage we have enough with that pick alone? And ideally nobody bids on him next 2 picks and we can pick a player and then take Ison when he is bid on after that?

 

[Soapy V]

This is just my opinion,
I believe that the academies are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
My concern is that F/S are being categorised as the same, which they are not. As mentioned the academies have 40-60 players at any stage in any year. They produce 4-10 players every draft. How many F/S every draft? 2-4.
I believe that the discount should be different (as in more) for those teams finishing below 8.
Also F/S should not be considered as NGA as that is not what the NGA is supposed to generate.

The underlying issue is also money & Govt influence. This is rarely discussed or known but one of the biggest departments in the AFL is "Government Relations" They have a large team of ex Power Brokers, Advisors etc that all they do is converse with Fed & State MPs daily to get money and things like grounds, training facilties. It's massive

For this it is always quid pro quo. Government will ask for things like Teams in areas (marginal seats), Indigenous support, TV coverage and things they can promote and the AFL will get things and money for what they want

Because of this the AFL system is massively comprimised and always will be

I don't think many realise how huge it is. Nothing is done by accident